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Working Paper

HOW THE BELT AND ROAD GAINED STEAM: CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS OF CHINA’S RISE IN GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Francis Fukuyama, Michael Bennon, Bushra Bataineh
2019

Western observers have raised concerns over the rise and now predominance of Chinese state-backed bilateral lending in international infrastructure development. These range from China's growing geopolitical influence to the increasingly unsustainable debt levels of some of the nations receiving investments as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In fact the BRI today is simply the next phase of a decades-long shift in the infrastructure sector towards China and away from traditional western development lending institutions.

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Case Studies

Evaluating Social Programs: The Case of World Health Partners-Sky

Karthik Sivaram
2019

This case looks at the challenges of managing and evaluating  new models of healthcare delivery in international development. It follows the story of a social franchising initiative funded by the Gates Foundation in Bihar, one of India's poorest states. The initiative sought to create primary healthcare centers at scale in remote rural parts of the state through a franchisee based private sector intervention. These centers were intended to provide high quality preventive care targeted at certain infectious diseases through technology and telemedicine enabled infrastructure.

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Case Studies

Is it Possible to Say No to China? The Case of the Kirchner-Cepernic Dams in Argentine Patagonia

Juan Lucci
2019

This case analyzes Argentinian President Macri’s decision to continue or suspend the construction of two mega dams financed by Chinese banks in the Santa Cruz River. President Macri faces a difficult dilemma. On the one hand, the project has low economic profitability and could pose negative impacts environmentally and socially. On the other hand, if Macri decides to suspend the project, it puts other project loans that China is financing in the country, and a swap of US$ 11 billion to guarantee the stability of Argentine currency at risk.

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Case Studies

Luxury or Priority? Ethiopia Wants a Light Rail

Lin Le
2019

The Ethiopian government is planning on constructing the country’s first light rail in its capital city Addis Ababa. The project is expected to bring both short-term and long-term benefits: it can help with alleviating the city’s traffic congestion problem, and more importantly, lay the technological foundation for Ethiopia’s grand strategy for a national railway system. Once completed, this modern public transport system will boost the political legitimacy of the incumbent regime.

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Case Studies

Bridging Regions, Strengthening Ties: The East Coast Rail Line (ECRL) in Malaysia

Jennifer Fei
2019

Malaysia is a Southeast Asian nation strategically located along major regional trade routes. Its national government must balance intense geopolitical pressures from neighboring countries with the need for domestic economic growth. In an effort to divert trade routes away from Singapore and to increase connectivity between its coasts, Prime Minister Najib Razak has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with China to build a Chinese-backed East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) across peninsular Malaysia. As an outspoken Member of Parliament in the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP), Dr.

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Book

State of Repression Iraq under Saddam Hussein

Lisa Blaydes,
2019

A new account of modern Iraqi politics that overturns the conventional wisdom about its sectarian divisions

How did Iraq become one of the most repressive dictatorships of the late twentieth century? The conventional wisdom about Iraq's modern political history is that the country was doomed by its diverse social fabric. But in State of Repression, Lisa Blaydes challenges this belief by showing that the country's breakdown was far from inevitable. At the same time, she offers a new way of understanding the behavior of other authoritarian regimes and their populations.

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Case Studies

Choosing the Japanese Way: Thilawa Special Economic Zone in Myanmar

Hokuto Asano
2019

From 1962 onward, Myanmar was a military dictatorship. In 2007, General Thein Sein became Prime Minister and began a process that would lead to the country’s gradual democratization by releasing political prisoners and talking with Aung San Suu Kyi. At the same time, Thein Sein worked to attract foreign investment and made a proposal to Japan to develop a special economic zone together. Although China had been its most important partner, Myanmar wanted to strengthen relationships with countries such as Japan, India, and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

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Case Studies

The European Silk Road: Montenegro's Decision to Build a New Highway

Emily Gray
2018

In this case, Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanović must decide whether to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with the Chinese Pacific Construction Group to build a highway between his country and neighboring Albania. This highway, known as the “Blue Corridor,” is part of Europe’s proposed Adriatic-Ionian Highway, which would stretch from Italy to Greece, connecting the Balkans via a coastal road. As Djukanović makes his decision, he considers domestic pressures, both economic and political, as well as international pressures from China and Europe.

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Working Paper

CHOLERA IN YEMEN: A CASE STUDY OF EPIDEMIC PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE

Paul H. Wise
2018

The cholera response in Yemen was and remains extremely complicated and challenging for a variety of political, security, cultural, and environmental reasons. The study team recognizes these challenges and commends the government, international and national organizations, and the donors for working to find solutions in such a difficult context. There are no easy fixes to these challenges, and the conclusions and recommendations are meant to be constructive and practical, taking into account the extreme limitations of working in Yemen during an active conflict.

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Journal Article

Chinese Influence & American Interests: Promoting Constructive Vigilance

Larry Diamond,
2018

For three and a half decades following the end of the Maoist era, China adhered to Deng Xiaoping’s policies of “reform and opening to the outside world” and “peaceful development.” After Deng retired as paramount leader, these principles continued to guide China’s international behavior in the leadership eras of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.

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Case Studies

Electrifying Power Africa: Balancing National Principles and International Pressures

Kate Gasparro
2018

In 2013, President Barack Obama announced Power Africa, the U.S.’s initiative to bring energy infrastructure to Sub-Saharan Africa. In the years following, the initiative enjoyed bipartisan support and congress passed enabling legislation in 2016. Despite early momentum for Power Africa, the initiative has yet to achieve its potential. This case follows the challenges and limitations of Power Africa in the face of growing and evolving Chinese pressures on the African continent. At a time when China is investing more than ever in Africa’s infrastructure, the U.S.

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Journal Article

Governance Innovation for a Connected World: Protecting Free Expression, Diversity and Civic Engagement in the Global Digital Ecosystem

Eileen Donahoe, Fen Osler Hampson
2018

The emergence of a global digital ecosystem has been a boon for global communication and the democratization of the means of distributing information. The internet, and the social media platforms and web applications running on it, have been used to mobilize pro-democracy protests and give members of marginalized communities a chance to share their voices with the world.

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Case Studies

Weighing the Environment: Ghana's Bui Dam

Serena Li
2018

This case examines the environmental permitting process leading up to the construction of the Bui Dam, the second largest hydropower facility in Ghana. Intended to provide much needed relief to the nation’s persistent power challenges, the project secured proper funding from China Exim Bank in 2005, fulfilling several decades of attempts to build the dam. At issue, however, are the potential environmental and social impacts associated with dam construction.

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Case Studies

Funding Coca Codo Sinclair: Correa's Bet on Sustainable Power in Ecuador

Yao Yang
2018

This case is about Ecuador's decision to finance the country's largest hydropower plant: Coca Codo Sinclair. The country's president is facing a shortage of financial resources and an urgent need to build the hydroplant so as to fulfill political promises. The only feasible option was to borrow money from China at a high cost. How did Correa ultimately decide on and negotiate with China in order to procure funding for the national project? 

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Case Studies

Strengthening Electricity Distribution in Uganda: The Role of Private Equity

Kelvin Fu
2018

This case describes the preparations and decisions made by Actis, a leading global emerging markets private equity firm, in the lead-up to its partial divestment via an initial public offering (“IPO”) of Umeme Limited (“Umeme”), Uganda’s national electric distribution company. The case describes the challenges encountered by Actis during the seven year period from when it first took over Umeme in 2005, through the years of work to turnaround the company, until 2012 when final preparations for the IPO were underway.

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Book

Clientelism, Capitalism, and Democracy

Didi Kuo
2018

Political parties in the United States and Britain used clientelism and patronage to govern throughout the nineteenth century. By the twentieth century, however, parties in both countries shifted to programmatic competition. This book argues that capitalists were critical to this shift. Businesses developed new forms of corporate management and capitalist organization, and found clientelism inimical to economic development.

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Book

Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment

Francis Fukuyama
2018
In 2014, Francis Fukuyama wrote that American institutions were in decay, as the state was progressively captured by powerful interest groups. Two years later, his predictions were borne out by the rise to power of a series of political outsiders whose economic nationalism and authoritarian tendencies threatened to destabilize the entire international order.
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Case Studies

Thailand's Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption

David Cutler
2018

This case focuses on a private sector initiative to fight deep-seated corruption in Thailand. The Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) was founded by a charismatic business scion in late 2010, but an untimely heart attack a few months later left CAC reeling. A new leader named Bandid Nijathaworn was suddenly responsible for delivering the rapid growth and good-faith commitments that his predecessor had envisioned. At the center of this case, Dr.

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Case Studies

ProZorro - From a Volunteer Initiative to a Major State Reform

Olexandr Starodubtsev and Yurii Buhai
2018

This case examines the decision process of a team of volunteers that started a public procurement reform named ProZorro. ProZorro was named after the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine in early 2014. The team originally pushed for government-led reforms, but eventually endeavoured to enact the reform themselves. However, they lost all political support for their desired reforms during the process.

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Journal Article

Follow the Leader

Larry Diamond, Lee Drutman , Joe Goldman
2018

A year into the Trump Administration, the health and stability of American democracy remain an open question. At a time when almost four in 10 Americans say they are not satisfied with the way democracy is working in the U.S., there is ample reason to ask how committed the American people are to our democracy.

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Journal Article

Examining humanitarian principles in changing warfare

Paul H. Wise
2018

Violence in war must have a limit. Those who are not participating in the hostilities should be protected to prevent war from sinking into barbarity. Today, this is safeguarded by international humanitarian law (IHL), of which the cornerstones are the four Geneva Conventions of 1949 and its Additional Protocols.

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Journal Article

The Mosul Trauma Response A Case Study

Paul H. Wise, Paul B. Spiegel
2018

The Battle of Mosul was one of the largest urban sieges since World War II. From October 2016 and July 2017, Iraqi and Kurdish forces fought to retake Iraq’s second largest city, which had fallen to ISIL in 2014. They were backed by U.S.-led coalition forces. More than 940,000 civilians fled during the siege, and thousands were injured as they sought safety.

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Journal Article

The Populist Surge

Francis Fukuyama, Francis Fukuyama
The American Interest , 2018

Trumpist populism could easily linger longer than most people readily assume. This article defines populism and gives three reasons why we are seeing the rise of populist nationalism now, in the second half of the 2010s. Those reasons are economic, political, and cultural. It also addresses the future of populism at home and abroad.

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Working Paper

Do Fair Elections Increase the Responsiveness of Politicians?

George Ofosu
CDDRL Working Papers , 2018

Abstract

I leverage novel experimental designs and 2, 160 months of Members of Parliaments’ (MPs’) Constituency Development Fund spending to test whether fair elections promote democratic responsiveness. I nd that MPs elected in constituencies that were randomly assigned to high levels of election monitoring dur- ing Ghana’s 2012 polls spend 19 percentage points more of their CDFs, on average, compared to those who were elected from districts that had fewer monitors.

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Journal Article

The Last English Civil War

Francis Fukuyama
2018

This essay examines why England experienced a civil war every fifty years from the Norman Conquest up until the Glorious Revolution of 1688–1689, and was completely stable after that point.

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