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Drawing on two decades of research on nonviolent movements in conflict zones, Oliver Kaplan analyzes the rise of community efforts across the United States to protect neighbors from aggressive immigration enforcement. The article identifies key lessons shared with civilian protection strategies abroad, including the power of organizing, disciplined nonviolence, safe zones, community fact-finding, and accompaniment. While acknowledging the risks involved, it argues that collective action and moral authority can limit violence and strengthen civil society in the face of state power.

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Oliver Kaplan
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In 2016, a team of three researchers based at Stanford University — Beatriz Magaloni, Vanessa Melo, and Gustavo Robles — conducted a groundbreaking experiment in Rocinha, Rio de Janeiro’s largest favela (informal settlement), to test whether body-worn cameras (BWC) could reduce police violence and improve community relations.

The findings reveal that body cameras hold great promise, but they also come with serious challenges.  Before the experiment started, one police unit commander ominously told the researchers: “If you give body cameras to my officers, this will stop them from doing their job.”

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Research brief on "Warriors and Vigilantes as Police Officers: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Body Cameras in Rio de Janeiro," by Beatriz Magaloni, Vanessa Melo, and Gustavo Robles (Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing, Volume 7, article number 2, (2023)).

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Motivation & Contribution


The Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement has sparked a domestic and global reckoning about racial injustice, especially with respect to police brutality. BLM mass protests — in particular, the misperception that these protests tend to be violent — have polarized much of American society, spawning pro-police countermovements like Blue Lives Matter. How can we understand the sources of public support for or opposition to racial justice movements like BLM? 

One suggestion is to look at the tactics used by protesters themselves, with the implication that more “disruptive” or “radical” tactics — for example, blocking highways as opposed to holding silent vigils — are key in determining how the public perceives BLM. In “How Police Behavior Shapes Perceptions of Protests,” Jasmine English, Ariel White, and Laurel Eckhouse provide evidence for a different answer: police tactics — in particular, whether protests were met with a heavy police presence — better explain why onlookers have perceived BLM protests as violent. After presenting data on the determinants of different police responses to protests, the authors conduct a survey experiment to explore how the presence of police at BLM protests affects public perceptions. 

The article deepens our understanding of the police as political actors who shape how Americans think about social movements. These perceptions are not solely determined by what protesters do or how the media portray them, but by how police respond. Worryingly for racial justice advocates, this means that violent police repression may fail to engender public sympathy for protesters; indeed, the mere presence of police leads onlookers to believe that protests are violent. Conversely, violent protest tactics are unnecessary for the public to perceive protesters as violent. The policy implications of these findings are that heavy police deployments at protests should be clearly justified and documented, given their potential to shape public opinion. 

Data & Findings


The authors assemble a dataset from over 1,000 BLM protests that occurred between 2014 and 2017. This includes details on protest tactics, timing (i.e., whether it was before or after dark), and size, as well as police tactics, including whether police were present, made arrests, or deployed crowd-control measures. The reader learns that BLM protests varied considerably in terms of size and place. So too did police responses vary, even in the face of similar protest messages and tactics. Police were present at nearly ⅔ of BLM protests, while at least one arrest occurred, and crowd control measures were deployed around one-fifth of the time. More generally, police responses ranged from using military gear, police joining in and kneeling with demonstrators, pushing elderly people to the ground, and undercover officers pointing guns at protesters.
 


 

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Protest Locations in the Contiguous United States Note: Point sizes are scaled by approximate protest size.


Protest Locations in the Contiguous United States
Note: Point sizes are scaled by approximate protest size. 



The authors run a regression analysis where the three dependent variables (DVs) or outcomes of interest are police presence, arrests made, and crowd control. The following independent variables (IVs) are found to be statistically significant in affecting all three DVs: highway blockages, protests occurring after dark, disruptive tactics (e.g., protesters changing themselves to objects), and large protests (i.e., over 1000 participants). However, the low predictive value of these IVs (also known as their R²) means the authors must find another way to understand how protests, police responses, and mass perceptions are linked in a causal way.
 


 

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Table 1: Protest Characteristics and Police Response


Table 1: Protest Characteristics and Police Response



Survey Experiment


The authors then conduct a survey experiment to test the following two hypotheses: H1: protests with a heavy police presence are more likely to be perceived by respondents as violent. H2: protests with a heavy police presence will yield less support for the overall movement from respondents. Over 2700 people participated in the experiment, which entailed respondents receiving two different “treatments”: one group read a “vignette” about a peaceful BLM protest, while the other read about a peaceful protest with a large police deployment. In other words, the only difference is whether police were present.
 


 

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Figure 2: News Article Vignette


Figure 2: News Article Vignette



H1 is measured by asking respondents how much they agree or disagree — on a five-point “Likert” scale ranging from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree” — with statements such as “the event was violent” or “protesters had violent intentions.” Similarly, H2 is measured by how much respondents agree with statements such as “I’d consider becoming involved in the protest,” “I support the protesters,” or “I’d post something positive about the protests on social media.” 

The authors find positive support for H1 but null support for H2. In other words, respondents who receive the treatment about police presence are more likely to view the protesters as violent, but this does not translate into reduced support for the movement. Their explanation for the null finding is as follows: “support” is a more medium- or long-term attitude, shaped by repeated “exposure” to protests over time. As such, a single exposure — in the form of reading a vignette — is unlikely to shift respondents’ support. By contrast, “believing something is violent” may be more easily shaped by a single exposure. Finally, the authors present exploratory (i.e., non-preregistered) data showing that the effects for white respondents in H1 are higher.
 



 

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Figure 5: Effects of Heavy Police Presence on Violence Perception


Figure 5: Effects of Heavy Police Presence on Violence Perception

 

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Figure 6: Effects of Police Presence on Support for BLM Protesters


Figure 6: Effects of Police Presence on Support for BLM Protesters



Ultimately, the article shows how police behavior, more than protester tactics, can shape public perceptions of social justice movements like BLM. These findings invite a reevaluation of important mass movements across American history — such as the Civil Rights Movement — where police responses played a pivotal role. A heavy police presence at otherwise peaceful protests can distort how the American public perceives constitutionally protected behavior, potentially undermining the accuracy that is necessary for democratic participation.

*Research-in-Brief prepared by Adam Fefer.

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BLM protest in Brooklyn, 2021
BLM protest in Brooklyn, 2021.
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CDDRL Research-in-Brief [3.5-minute read]

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When it comes to managing the administrative tasks that are required to run a home and raise a family, women bear the brunt of the responsibility. According to one study of women in the United States, mothers take on 7 out of 10 so-called mental load tasks, which range from planning meals to scheduling activities for children.

All that extra work takes a toll, including on society: Women who carry more mental load are less interested in national politics (men who carry more mental load also report less political interest, but fewer men are in that position).

Read the full story in the Stanford Report.

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Women at Lake Tanganyika
Women at Lake Tanganyika
Yury Birukov
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Political science professors Lisa Blaydes, Beatriz Magaloni, and James Fearon are among researchers at the King Center on Global Development addressing challenges such as gender-based violence and low labor participation, with the aim to inform supportive policy interventions.

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Aurelia Leowinata
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In the wake of Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election — marred by widespread fraud to ensure Nicolás Maduro’s re-election over opposition candidates Edmundo González and María Corina Machado — the regime has escalated its repression of political dissent. In the aftermath of the election, the regime arrested over 2,400 people. More than 807 political prisoners remain unjustly detained, including 95 women, 4 minors, and over 83 foreign nationals. These individuals, many held as leverage in international negotiations, are subjected to degrading conditions and denied due process.

Amongst them is Jesús Armas, a 2022 Fisher Family Summer Fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and a recently admitted student to Stanford’s Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy program (MIP). As a key campaign organizer for González and Machado, Jesús promoted civic participation and democratic unity in Caracas. He has now been held incommunicado, in conditions of physical and legal abuse, for over eight months. His arrest is emblematic of the Maduro regime’s broader strategy to silence opposition and dismantle civil society.

On August 4, 2025 Fisher Family Summer Fellows Lilian Tintori and Waleed Shawky joined Gulika Reddy, Director of the International Human Rights and Conflict Resolution Clinic at Stanford Law School (SLS), for a panel on how local and global communities can support political prisoners and their families. As Beatriz Magaloni, Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, stated in her opening remarks: “This event should act as a call to action for deeper reflection and justice.”

CDDRL faculty wear shirts that read "Liberen a Jesús Armas"
CDDRL faculty standing in solidarity with Jesús Armas and political prisoners around the world. | Nora Sulots

Strategies for Release


Lilian Tintori, an internationally recognized human rights advocate and the wife of former political prisoner Leopoldo López (the 2022 Robert G. Wesson Lecturer in International Relations Theory and Practice at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies), spoke candidly about her seven-year struggle to secure her husband’s release. “It is not easy,” she stated, “You become the voice of the political prisoner. You can’t talk, you have to scream in every crevice, every place, every moment you get.” 

Tintori argues that the most important aspect for release is a community of resilience, which is to provide mental health and emotional support to political prisoners’ families, as they cannot act as the voice if they feel broken themselves. At the heart of this strength, she argued, is love. In her efforts, she now distributes the Pathway to Freedom handbook, produced through her organization, the World Liberty Congress, to help families navigate the grueling road to release.

“Torture only occurs because the Maduro regime knows we are the majority,” Tintori clarified. Since the beginning of 2025, five political prisoners in Venezuela have died in custody. Tintori emphasized the importance of protecting the life of the person being detained — the human being behind the titles of activist, mayor, or opposition leader, beyond a simple number. To raise awareness about political prisoners alike, Tintori often employs the strategy of always mentioning “other political prisoners” after their loved ones’ names. This keeps the broader community of victims in public consciousness.

With international and local channels to plead for help closing, such as the EU or historically, the U.S., all three panelists stressed that silence is not an option for all communities — including academic spheres — and the broader public. Tintori testified that after public pressure, the regimes do pay attention and often send proof of life to suppress further outrage, hence helping to protect prisoners until their release.

You become the voice of the political prisoner. You can’t talk, you have to scream in every crevice, every place, every moment you get.
Lilian Tintori

Ways to Support A Political Prisoner 


Having been a political prisoner himself after co-founding the April 6th Youth Movement in Egypt, Waleed Shawky recounted what he believed carried him through his time behind bars — the cause he fought for. Upholding the values and vision that led to their arrest, he argued, can provide hope and dignity in the most inhumane conditions. “Being a victim is a choice as a prisoner, because you can choose to be a survivor,” Shawky asserted, “It is important to remind them of the bigger picture.” 

Echoing Tintori’s previous statements, Shawky praised the courage of the families, particularly women, who visit and support prisoners, often at great personal risk. He also warned against idolizing or victimizing political prisoners. “They’re human,” he emphasized. “Don’t cry in front of them. Be strong; they need your strength.”

[Political prisoners are] human. Don’t cry in front of them. Be strong; they need your strength.
Waleed Shawky

Authoritarian Crackdowns and Resistance


Gulika Reddy highlighted the challenges advocates operating in authoritarian contexts face and how they navigate these challenges. She broke it down into three different categories: movements, organizations, and individuals.

  • Movements are often delegitimized and co-opted. Reddy stressed the importance of engaging in grounded movement building, offering counter-narratives to sustain public trust, and fostering solidarity and collective action.

  • At the organizational level, regimes may block formal registration, restrict funding, and launch physical or digital attacks — including office raids and data seizures. To survive these assaults, organizations can diversify financial models, invest in digital security, and cultivate collective care to mitigate burnout and trauma. Additionally, there is a need to adopt diverse theories of change in contexts where traditional human rights tactics prove ineffective.

  • For individuals, threats include intimidation and retaliation, which can also extend to their loved ones. Reddy recommended conducting risk assessments and creating mitigation and response plans, including access to free legal aid and safe housing.


What we learned from our speakers is clear: authoritarianism thrives on silence, but freedom depends on our voices. For political prisoners around the world, solidarity, resilience, and an unwavering defense of human dignity are not just ideals; they are lifelines that can bring them home.

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Jesus Armas participates in the 2022 Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program at CDDRL
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Statement Demanding the Immediate Release of Jesús Armas (FFSF 2022, Venezuela)

A joint statement from the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy program (MIP) at Stanford University.
Statement Demanding the Immediate Release of Jesús Armas (FFSF 2022, Venezuela)
Leopoldo López
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“Venezuela can be the spark for a fourth wave of democratization,” says Leopoldo López

López, a political leader and prominent advocate for democracy in Venezuela, shared his vision for uniting global efforts to champion freedom and push back against authoritarianism with a Stanford audience on December 2, 2024.
“Venezuela can be the spark for a fourth wave of democratization,” says Leopoldo López
María Corina Machado spoke to a Stanford audience in a special video address on November 18, and engaged in a conversation with Larry Diamond.
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Venezuela: Cultivating Democratic Resilience Against Authoritarianism

María Corina Machado, the leader of the Venezuelan pro-democracy movement, suggests that a strong international response to Venezuelan authoritarianism will help overcome electoral fraud against democracy in her country.
Venezuela: Cultivating Democratic Resilience Against Authoritarianism
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Lilian Tintori, Waleed Shawky, and Gulika Reddy
Lilian Tintori, Waleed Shawky, and Gulika Reddy spoke to a Stanford audience about strategies to support political prisoners in a panel discussion on August 4, 2025.
Nora Sulots
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A panel discussion featuring 2025 Fisher Family Summer Fellows Lilian Tintori and Waleed Shawky, along with Gulika Reddy, Director of the International Human Rights and Conflict Resolution Clinic at Stanford Law School, explored the human cost of political imprisonment, the barriers advocates face, and the strategies available to combat them.

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Associate Professor, Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver
CDDRL Visiting Scholar, 2025-26
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Oliver Kaplan is an Associate Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. He is the author of the book, Resisting War: How Communities Protect Themselves (Cambridge University Press, 2017), which examines how civilian communities organize to protect themselves from wartime violence. He is a co-editor and contributor to the book, Speaking Science to Power: Responsible Researchers and Policymaking (Oxford University Press, 2024). Kaplan has also published articles on the conflict-related effects of land reforms and ex-combatant reintegration and recidivism. As part of his research, Kaplan has conducted fieldwork in Colombia and the Philippines.

Kaplan was a Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace and previously a postdoctoral Research Associate at Princeton University and at Stanford University. His research has been funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the International Committee of the Red Cross, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and other grants. His work has been published in The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, Conflict Management and Peace Science, Stability, The New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, CNN, and National Interest.

At the University of Denver, Kaplan is Director of the Korbel Asylum Project (KAP). He has taught M.A.-level courses on Human Rights and Foreign Policy, Peacebuilding in Civil Wars, Civilian Protection, and Human Rights Research Methods, and PhD-level courses on Social Science Research Methods. Kaplan received his Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University and completed his B.A. at UC San Diego.

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SURF Postdoctoral Fellow, 2025-26
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Emil Kamalov's research interests lie at the intersection of autocratic control, political behavior, migration, and repression, utilizing advanced quantitative methods complemented by qualitative data.

In his PhD thesis and papers, Emil develops an integrated account of extraterritorial opposition politics, examining how geopolitical tensions and host-country conditions shape emigrant activism, diaspora resilience, and migrant well-being. His findings demonstrate that under certain conditions, transnational repression by autocratic regimes can strengthen rather than weaken diaspora activism.

In collaboration with Ivetta Sergeeva, Emil co-founded and co-leads the OutRush project, the only ongoing multi-wave panel survey focusing on Russian political emigrants following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The OutRush project includes over 18,000 survey observations across four waves, covering respondents from more than 100 countries. The project has garnered substantial international media coverage and has drawn attention from policymakers and experts.

Emil is expected to receive his PhD in Political and Social Sciences from the European University Institute in September 2025.

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Gerhard Casper Postdoctoral Fellow, 2025-26
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Ana Paula Pellegrino is the Gerhard Casper Fellow in Rule of Law at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and a JSD Candidate at Stanford Law School. Pellegrino is an empirical political scientist using experimental, observational, and qualitative data to study questions of criminal and political violence, with a particular interest in Latin America. Her research agenda includes projects on state and non-state armed actors, including police and criminal groups, and how they form and engage with each other. Other projects explore public attitudes towards violence and war, as well as the micro-dynamics of violence and war outcomes.

Pellegrino's work has been supported by Georgetown University, Fundação Estudar’s Leaders program, and the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation’s Emerging Scholars program. She holds a Ph.D. in Government from Georgetown University and a BA and MA in International Relations from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. She is an incoming Assistant Professor at the School of Government at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, in Santiago, where she will begin in July 2026.

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Pathways to Freedom: Defending Political Prisoners and Democracy

The Stanford community is invited to join the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law on Monday, August 4, for an important conversation about democracy, human rights, and political prisoners worldwide.

Authoritarian regimes across the globe are increasingly using political imprisonment as a strategic weapon. Far beyond isolated acts of repression, political prisoners serve autocrats in multiple ways: they silence vocal dissidents, fracture organized opposition, deter mass mobilization, and are often used as bargaining chips in international negotiations. These regimes understand that imprisoning individuals can sow fear and demoralize broader movements without drawing the same global backlash as overt violence.

The case of Jesús Armas — a Venezuelan activist, 2022 Fisher Family Summer Fellow, and recently admitted student to Stanford’s Master’s in International Policy program — illustrates this dynamic. His unjust detention for over seven months, under conditions of isolation and legal abuse, is not an aberration, but part of a systematic strategy to preserve power.

This event will explore not only the barriers advocates face in these environments and the human cost of political imprisonment, but also the strategies available to fight it. Families and advocates of detainees play a crucial frontline role, often navigating trauma, stigma, and bureaucratic barriers while working for their loved ones' release.

PANELISTS:

  • Lilian Tintori: Director of the World Liberty Congress' Pathway to Freedom project; human rights advocate, and leader with first-hand experience as the spouse of a former political prisoner; 2025 Fisher Family Summer Fellow
  • Waleed Shawky: Egyptian human rights researcher and civic activist, co-founder of the April 6th Youth Movement; former political prisoner; 2025 Fisher Family Summer Fellow.
  • Gulika Reddy: Human rights advocate and Director of the International Human Rights and Conflict Resolution Clinic at Stanford Law School


Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, will share opening remarks.

Beatriz Magaloni
Beatriz Magaloni

William J. Perry Conference Room
Encina Hall, Second Floor, Central, C231

Open to Stanford affiliates only. Registration is not required.

Lilian Tintori
Waleed Shawky
Gulika Reddy
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Amichai Magen
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Lore has it that the late President Ronald Reagan loved telling “the one about the pony.” In his rendition of the story, the parents of twin brothers—one a diehard pessimist, the other an eternal optimist—consulted a psychologist who recommended a unique experiment. On the twins’ next birthday the pessimist was shown into a room packed with the most expensive gifts the parents could afford, while the optimist was invited into a room full of horse manure. An hour later, when the parents checked on the pessimist, he complained bitterly about some arcane detail in one of his expensive gifts. In contrast, when they cautiously opened the door to check in on the optimist, they found him digging joyfully through the manure. “Mom! Dad! This is incredible!” the optimist shouted with glee. “With all the shit piled up in this room, there’s got to be a pony!”

Read the full article in Persuasion.

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Helicopter with three released hostages on January 19, 2025.
Helicopter with three released hostages on January 19, 2025.
Nir Keidar/Anadolu via Getty Images
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Amichai Magen hunts for the pony in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

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