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Journal Articles

Examining humanitarian principles in changing warfare

Paul H. Wise
2018

Violence in war must have a limit. Those who are not participating in the hostilities should be protected to prevent war from sinking into barbarity. Today, this is safeguarded by international humanitarian law (IHL), of which the cornerstones are the four Geneva Conventions of 1949 and its Additional Protocols.

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Journal Articles

The Populist Surge

Francis Fukuyama, Francis Fukuyama
The American Interest , 2018

Trumpist populism could easily linger longer than most people readily assume. This article defines populism and gives three reasons why we are seeing the rise of populist nationalism now, in the second half of the 2010s. Those reasons are economic, political, and cultural. It also addresses the future of populism at home and abroad.

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Working Papers

Do Fair Elections Increase the Responsiveness of Politicians?

George Ofosu
CDDRL Working Papers , 2018

Abstract

I leverage novel experimental designs and 2, 160 months of Members of Parliaments’ (MPs’) Constituency Development Fund spending to test whether fair elections promote democratic responsiveness. I nd that MPs elected in constituencies that were randomly assigned to high levels of election monitoring dur- ing Ghana’s 2012 polls spend 19 percentage points more of their CDFs, on average, compared to those who were elected from districts that had fewer monitors.

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Journal Articles

The Last English Civil War

Francis Fukuyama
2018

This essay examines why England experienced a civil war every fifty years from the Norman Conquest up until the Glorious Revolution of 1688–1689, and was completely stable after that point.

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Journal Articles

Civil War & the Global Threat of Pandemics

Paul H. Wise (198646), Michele Barry
2018

This essay confronts the collision of two potential global threats: the outbreak of infectious pandemics and the outbreak and protraction of civil wars.

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Journal Articles

Iran’s 2017 Election: The Opposition Inches Forward

Abbas Milani
2017

Abbas Milani argues how the 19 May 2017 presidential election offers a window into the painful predicament of a democracy-minded society

—demographically young, globally inclined, and social-media savvy—subordinated to an authoritarian polity. Read the article here.

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Case Studies

'Locked-In' to China: The Colombo Port City Project

Karthik Sivaram
2017

This case looks at the predicament of a small nation burdened by Chinese debt, accumulated by infrastructure projects under the aegis of China’s One Belt One Road initiative. By 2016, the government of Sri Lanka owed China $8 billion (almost 10% of GDP) mainly from loans taken to construct a series of infrastructure projects, many of which proved commercially unviable. Most of these were approved by the previous government under President Rajapaksa. The Colombo Port City project was the grandest and most ambitious of them all.

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Case Studies

The Bahamas' Baha Mar: Rescuing the Mega-Resort from Bankruptcy

2017
Back in the early 2000s, the Bahamian government had a burning problem to solve — the nation’s plunging GDP. By the end of 2001, its real GDP growth had receded  from 5% (in 2000) to 1.5%. As tourism accounts for more than 60% of the Bahamian national GDP, building a luxurious resort to attract more American tourists emerged as a natural choice for Perry Christie, the then prime minister. Hence, plans for the Baha Mar resort took shape.
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Case Studies

Are China's Loans to Ecuador a Good Deal? The Case of the Sopladora Hydro Project

Juan José Lucci
2017

This case presents the decision to build the Sopladora Hydroelectric Plant (487MW) in the Ecuadorian Amazon, with financing from the Eximbank of China. President Rafael Correa faces a difficult dilemma. On the one hand, Sopladora is a strategic infrastructure project for the country that will allow it to reduce imports of refined fuel and increase its energy security, while saving money in an economy without a monetary policy.

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Case Studies

Public Broadcasting in Ukraine: What Does it Take to Break Decades of Inertia and an Avalanche of Resistance?

Yaryna Klyuchkovska, Sophia Opatska, Andrew Rozhdestvenskyy and Igor Rozkladay
2017

On March 25, 2014 Zurab Alasania became the newly appointed Head of NTKU (National TV Company of Ukraine) and faced the challenges of creating a public broadcasting institution. It was a period in Ukrainian history when the Revolution of Dignity had just taken place, the Crimea had been annexed, and the situation in the country was very unstable. Parliament announced presidential elections for May of 2014. The creation of an independent public broadcaster had been mandated by the Council of Europe but had stalled for 10 years.

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Case Studies

Building Hydropower Plants in Uganda: Who is the Best Partner?

Lin Le
2017

Uganda has long been plagued by chronic power shortages. Determined to boost the country’s economic growth, Ugandan leaders have decided to build two large-scale hydropower plants at Karuma (600MW) and Isimba (183 MW). Irene Muloni, the head of the nation’s Ministry of Energy and Minerals Development (MEMD), has two options for financing and building the hydropower facilities: either to build the dams as independent power projects (IPPs), or to accept Chinese financing and contract with Chinese construction companies.

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Working Papers

Authoritarian Survival and Poverty Traps: Land Reform in Mexico

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, Beatriz Magaloni, Michael Albertus, Barry R. Weingast
CDDRL Working Papers, page(s): 52 , 2017

This paper examines why governments in underdeveloped countries systematically pursue policies that prevent long-term economic growth. Focusing on the design and implementation of Mexico's massive land redistribution program, we argue that governments do so to improve their chances of political survival. Mexico’s incumbent PRI regime gave peasants communal property under a restrictive and inefficient property rights regime.

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Working Papers

Caught in the Crossfire: The Geography of Extortion and Police Corruption in Mexico

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, Beatriz Magaloni, Vidal Romero
CDDRL Working Papers, page(s): 27 , 2017

When Mexican President Felipe Caldrón took office in December 2006 he declared a war on the nation’s drug traffic organizations (Ríos and Shirk, 2011). Violence escalated as criminal organizations became increasingly fragmented and disputed their territories (Killebrew and Bernal, 2010; Beittel, 2011).

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Working Papers

The Economic Costs of Drug-Trafficking Violence in Mexico

Gustavo Robles, Beatriz Magaloni, Gabriela Calderón
2017

The levels of violence in Mexico have dramatically increased in the last few years due to structural changes in the drug trafficking business. The increase in the number of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) fighting over the control of territory and trafficking routes has resulted in a substantial increase in the rates of homicides and other crimes. This study evaluates the economic costs of drug-related violence.

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Policy Briefs

Impact Evaluation: Program Jóvenes con Porvenir

Beatriz Magaloni, Beatriz Magaloni, Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, Brenda Jarillo Rabling
International Crime and Violence Lab, page(s): 20 , 2017

Jóvenes con Porvenir is a public-funded program run by the government of Zapopan. This pioneering policy initiative was designed and implemented in response to the major social and economic challenges affecting young people. The program offers scholarships to young men and women not enrolled in school, so they can attend vocational training courses regardless of their employment status.

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Books

"Political Logic of Poverty Relief" Electoral Strategies and Social Policy in Mexico

Beatriz Magaloni, Federico Estévez, Federico Estévez
Cambridge Press, 2016 , 2017

Poverty relief programs are shaped by politics. The particular design that social programs take is, to a large extent, determined by the existing institutional constraints and politicians' imperative to win elections. The "Political Logic of Poverty Relief" places elections and institutional design at the core of poverty alleviation. The authors develop a theory with applications to Mexico about how elections shape social programs aimed at aiding the poor.

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Case Studies

To be "dam"-ed: Navigating Stakeholder Relations to Bring Energy to Africa with Inga 3

Kate Gasparro
2017

This case follows the development of the Inga 3, the third hydroelectric plant to be built on the Inga River in the Democratic Republic of Congo.  The Inga 3, with a capacity of 3,000 MW, would provide clean energy to the continent and a next step for President Obama’s Power Africa Initiative.

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Books

Architects of Occupation

Dayna L. Barnes
Cornell University Press , 2017

The Allied occupation of Japan is remembered as the "good occupation." An American-led coalition successfully turned a militaristic enemy into a stable and democratic ally. Of course, the story was more complicated, but the occupation did forge one of the most enduring relationships in the postwar world. Recent events, from the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan to protests over American bases in Japan to increasingly aggressive territorial disputes between Asian nations over islands in the Pacific, have brought attention back to the subject of the occupation of Japan.

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Books

States in the Developing World

Miguel Centeno, Atul Kohli, Deborah J. Yashar, Dinsha Mistree
Cambridge University Press , 2017

"What should states in the developing world do and how should they do it? How have states in the developing world addressed the challenges of promoting development, order, and inclusion? States in the developing world are supposed to build economies, control violence, and include the population. How they do so depends on historical origins and context as well as policy decisions.

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Working Papers

Reassessing the Quality of Government in China

Francis Fukuyama, Margaret Boittin, Gregory Distelhorst
CDDRL Working Papers , 2016

How should the quality of government be measured across disparate national contexts? This study develops a new approach using an original survey of Chinese civil servants and a comparison to the United States. We surveyed over 2,500 Chinese municipal officials on three organizational features of their bureaucracies: meritocracy, individual autonomy, and morale. They report greater meritocracy than U.S. federal employees in almost all American agencies. China's edge is smaller in autonomy and markedly smaller in morale. Differences between the U.S.

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Journal Articles

The Impact of Holy Land Crusades on State Formation: War Mobilization, Trade Integration, and Political Development in Medieval Europe

International Organization/Cambridge Core , 2016

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Working Papers

The Meaning and Limits of Freedom of Expression in Lebanon: Publications Court Jurisprudence on Freedom of Expression vs. Defamation

Dima Dabbous
CDDRL Working Papers , 2016

Abstract

In light of the legal issues raised by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) trial (April to June 2015) against the Lebanese Al-Jadeed television on charges of contempt of court and obstruction of justice, the present paper seeks to assess the state of freedom of expression in Lebanon and the role played by the Lebanese judiciary in defining this right and delineating its limits, especially when it clashes with another right—in this case the right to protect one’s dignity in general, and the dignity of the judicial body in specific.

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Books

"Political Logic of Poverty Relief" Electoral Strategies and Social Policy in Mexico

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, Beatriz Magaloni, Federico Estévez
Cambridge University Press, 2016 , 2016

Poverty relief programs are shaped by politics. The particular design that social programs take is, to a large extent, determined by the existing institutional constraints and politicians' imperative to win elections. The "Political Logic of Poverty Relief" places elections and institutional design at the core of poverty alleviation. The authors develop a theory with applications to Mexico about how elections shape social programs aimed at aiding the poor.

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Journal Articles

How the Mexican Drug War Affects Kids and Schools? Evidence on Effects and Mechanisms

Brenda Jarillo Rabling, Beatriz Magaloni, Edgar Franco Vivanco, Gustavo Robles
International Journal of Educational Development , 2016

In this paper published by the International Journal of Educational Development, we investigate the impact of drug-related violence in Mexico on academic achievement. We use panel of elementary and lower secondary schools and locality-level firearm homicides from 2006 to 2011. We rely on school fixed-effects models to estimate the impact on math test scores of turf war exposure and turf war persistence (e.g. months of exposure) during the academic year. According to the results, both exposure and persistence of criminal violence reduces math test scores.

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Case Studies

El Salvador’s La Unión Port: Foundering in a Sea of Politics

Julia Oliver
2016

Guillermo López Suárez, the new head of El Salvador’s port authority, faces a dilemma: how to get the brand new La Unión port running. Plans made by the previous, right-wing government to find a private operator for the $187 million port had stalled in the National Assembly. In addition, a number of expensive technical problems had become clear over the course of the port’s construction. To make matters worse, the current administration faced opposition to privatization of the port from within its own party, which had radical Marxist elements.

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