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Khushmita Dhabhai
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On April 2, FSI Center Fellow Didi Kuo opened CDDRL’s Spring Research Seminar Series with a presentation titled “Beyond Policy: The Rise of Non-Programmatic Party Competition in Advanced Democracies.” The seminar examined whether policy continues to serve as the primary basis of political competition and voter-party linkage in advanced democratic systems.

Kuo began by outlining the traditional “programmatic” model of party competition, which assumes that political parties compete by offering distinct policy platforms and that voters make choices based on these policy differences. In this framework, democratic responsiveness emerges from the alignment between public preferences and party positions. Historically, such programmatic competition has been closely associated with democratic consolidation, strong institutions, and effective governance.

However, Kuo challenged this assumption by asking whether policy still plays a central role in contemporary politics. She presented evidence suggesting that political discourse, particularly in the United States, has shifted away from policy-focused communication. For example, recent political speeches were shown to contain fewer policy references and more grievance-based and retrospective language. This shift raised concerns that parties may increasingly rely on alternative strategies to mobilize voters.

The seminar then explored several non-programmatic forms of political competition. These included identity-based appeals, grievance politics, populism, and affective polarization. Kuo explained that these strategies emphasize emotional resonance, group identity, and symbolic representation rather than concrete policy proposals. In such contexts, voters may be motivated less by policy preferences and more by partisan identity or perceived cultural alignment. Importantly, these dynamics do not fully replace programmatic competition but instead reduce its relative importance.

Kuo also discussed theoretical and empirical research showing that many voters possess limited policy knowledge and often hold unstable or weakly structured policy preferences. As a result, factors such as party identification, emotion, and social identity can play a more significant role in shaping political behavior. This complicates the traditional view that democratic accountability operates primarily through policy evaluation.

To assess whether programmatic competition is declining, Kuo introduced new measurement strategies. These included expert surveys evaluating party cohesion and policy salience, as well as analyses of voter responses over time to determine whether individuals reference policy when expressing political preferences. The findings suggested a gradual decline in policy-based reasoning among voters, even in countries like the United States that have historically been highly programmatic.

Kuo concluded by considering the broader implications of this shift. A decline in programmatic competition may weaken democratic accountability, as voters become less likely to evaluate governments based on policy performance. It may also contribute to increased polarization and reduced willingness to compromise, as identity-driven politics tends to be more zero-sum. Ultimately, the seminar suggested that if policy is no longer the dominant mode of political competition, scholars may need to rethink core assumptions about how democracy functions.

In sum, Kuo’s presentation highlighted a significant transformation in advanced democracies: the growing importance of non-programmatic strategies in party competition and the potential consequences this shift holds for democratic governance.

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Hannah Chapman presented her research in a CDDRL and TEC sponsored REDS Seminar on March 12, 2026.
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The Information Paradox: Citizen Appeals and Authoritarian Governance in Russia

Associate Professor Hannah Chapman explores how the rise of crises affects authoritarian regimes’ ability to gather information from their citizens in the context of Russia.
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Oliver Kaplan presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on February 19, 2026.
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Assessing Labor Market Discrimination Against Ex-combatants

CDDRL Visiting Scholar Oliver Kaplan explores how stigma shapes hiring decisions for ex-combatants in Colombia and identifies ways education, reconciliation efforts, and employer incentives can reduce discrimination.
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Didi Kuo presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on April 2, 2026.
Didi Kuo presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on April 2, 2026.
Stacey Clifton
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Didi Kuo explores how non-programmatic competition is changing the relationship between voters, parties, and democratic institutions.

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  • In an April 2 research seminar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Didi Kuo examined whether policy still drives party competition in advanced democracies.
  • Kuo’s seminar showed parties increasingly rely on identity, grievance, and polarization alongside traditional policy-based appeals.
  • The research suggests declining policy-based competition could weaken democratic accountability and reshape how scholars understand democratic governance.
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Nensi Hayotsyan
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In a CDDRL research seminar held on February 19, 2026, Oliver Kaplan, visiting scholar at CDDRL and Associate Professor at the University of Denver, presented a collaborative project on labor market discrimination against ex-combatants in Colombia. The study explores how prevalent hiring discrimination is against ex-combatants in the formal job market and whether this bias can be reduced. To highlight the significance of this issue, Kaplan emphasized the central role employment plays in reintegration, explaining that it is not only about income and individual well-being, but also about preventing recidivism, which is critical to long-term democratic stability and the rule of law. 

As Kaplan argues, stigma can play a major role in shaping hiring outcomes, as employers may associate ex-combatants with violence, instability, or unreliability, impacting the hiring process. Hence, the research tests whether ex-combatants face an employment penalty relative to non-ex-combatants. The study also examines whether conflict victims face similar bias and whether applicants who were both ex-combatants and victims experience different outcomes, since victim status could either reinforce stigma or generate sympathy and improve hiring chances. Finally, the study aims to identify practical ways to mitigate discrimination through education and skills training beyond high school, participation in reconciliation or peacebuilding activities, and the presence of employer tax incentives.

Kaplan and colleagues implemented a field experiment, partnering with Columbia’s reintegration agency to work with eight former combatants who applied to jobs using different versions of their resumes. The key treatment was selectively including or withholding information such as reintegration status, education, training, or reconciliation experience. This allowed the researchers to see how employers respond to different signals without faking information or using false identities. Applications were submitted through major online job platforms, and employer responses, including interview invitations, requests for additional information, and job offers, were tracked through calls, messages, and emails.  

Kaplan concluded by emphasizing the potential policy implications of these findings, explaining that improving access to employment through training and employer incentives might strengthen reintegration and reduce barriers faced by ex-combatants. Ultimately, Kaplan stressed that employment is not just an economic issue, but a key component of long-term peacebuilding, as access to stable jobs reduces the likelihood that ex-combatants return to conflict and helps sustain democratic stability.

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Laia Balcells presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on March 5, 2026.
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Adrienne LeBas presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on February 27, 2026.
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Social Intermediaries and Statebuilding

Adrienne LeBas explores whether social intermediaries with strong state capacity can help build tax revenue.
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Lucan Way presented his research in a REDS Seminar on February 12, 2026.
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Resource Concentration and Authoritarianism

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Oliver Kaplan presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on February 19, 2026.
Oliver Kaplan presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on February 19, 2026.
Nora Sulots
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CDDRL Visiting Scholar Oliver Kaplan explores how stigma shapes hiring decisions for ex-combatants in Colombia and identifies ways education, reconciliation efforts, and employer incentives can reduce discrimination.

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In Brief
  • At a CDDRL research seminar, Visiting Scholar Oliver Kaplan examined how stigma shapes employers’ hiring decisions for former combatants in Colombia.
  • A field experiment with Colombia’s reintegration agency tested how signals like education, training, and reconciliation experience affect employer responses.
  • The research suggests that education, participation in peacebuilding, and employer incentives could reduce discrimination and strengthen post-conflict reintegration.
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THE QUESTION

On 22 February 2026, Mexican security forces neutralized and killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (El Mencho), founder and leader of the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). Within hours, more than 370 violent incidents erupted in 25 states: narco-blockades, arson attacks on OXXO stores and Bancos del Bienestar, and direct ambushes of Guardia Nacional units that killed at least 25 officers. Some observers compared the violence to a nationwide civil war insurgency. The data and its analysis tell a more qualified story.

WHAT THE DATA SHOWS

Using two independent georeferenced incident datasets — DataInt (251 records) and Aliado/Alephri (138 records), merged and deduplicated to 370 events — we mapped the timing, geography, and severity of every reported incident and asked whether the pattern looks like a coordinated national campaign or something else entirely.

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What the CJNG Response to El Mencho's Death Reveals About Cartel Organisational Capacity

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Alberto Díaz-Cayeros

Encina West 410
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Stanford, CA 94305

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Lecturer, Political Science
Associate Director of the Capstone Program, Political Science
Affiliated scholar, CDDRL
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Simone Paci is a lecturer in Political Science at Stanford University. His research focuses on political economy across public policy domains. His three main areas of interest include taxation, AI, and gender politics.

Simone's research has been published in the American Journal of Political Science, PS: Political Science & Politics, the UN WIDER Working Paper Series, and the Journal of Interdisciplinary History.

Before Stanford, Simone held a Postdoctoral Research Associate position at Princeton University. Simone received a PhD in Political Science from Columbia University and a BA in Political Science and Economics from Yale University.

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Nora Sulots
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Every September, rising seniors in the Fisher Family Honors Program travel to the nation’s capital for CDDRL’s Honors College. This immersive, week-long program gives students an inside look at the institutions and experts in Washington, D.C. who are shaping global debates and working to advance democracy and development around the world.

Throughout the week, students will examine pressing global issues with experts at the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center on Preventive Action and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, gain insights into international development from scholars at the World Bank, and dive into the challenges and advantages of empowering local democratic activists — particularly in countries hostile to democracy — with speakers at the National Endowment for Democracy, among other exciting site visits. They are also encouraged to use this time to connect with experts related to their thesis question.

CDDRL’s Fisher Family Honors Program brings together undergraduates from diverse fields and methodologies who share a passion for understanding democracy, development, and the rule of law. The program challenges students to carry out original, policy-relevant research on these topics and produce a coherent, eloquently argued, and well-written honors thesis.

This year's Honors College begins on Sunday, September 14. It will be led by Stephen Stedman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Fisher Family Honors Program, and research scholar María Ignacia Curiel, alongside Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy Larry Diamond.

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CDDRL Fisher Family Honors Class of 2026
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An aerial view of the Capitol Building and the National Mall in Washington, D.C.
An aerial view of the Capitol Building and the National Mall in Washington, D.C.
Harrison Mitchell via Unsplash
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From September 14 to 20, the Fisher Family Honors Program class of 2026 will attend CDDRL’s annual Honors College, where they will participate in a week of site visits and discussions with leading scholars and practitioners working to strengthen democracy worldwide.

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2025-26
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Major: Political Science
Hometown: Naperville, Illinois
Thesis Advisor: Jonathan Rodden

Tentative Thesis Title: Broadband for All: Historical Lessons and International Models for U.S. Internet Policy

Future aspirations post-Stanford: After completing my master's in computer science, I hope to go to law school and work in technology law.

A fun fact about yourself: I started lion dancing when I came to college!

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2025-26
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Major: Psychology & Public Policy (Environmental Economics Concentration)
Hometown:  Atherton, California
Thesis Advisor: Marie-Pierre Ulloa

Tentative Thesis Title: Les Harkis et Les Kabyles: Une Dichotomie de la Guerre ("The Harkis and the Kabyles: A Dichotomy of War")

Future aspirations post-Stanford: Law school and lots of attorney-ing!

A fun fact about yourself: I love playing the piano and played for 8 years when I was younger.

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Public health infrastructure varies widely at the local, state, and national levels, and the COVID-19 response revealed just how critical local health authority can be. Public health officials created COVID policies, enforced behavioral and non-pharmaceutical interventions, and communicated with the public. This article explores the determinants of public health capacity, distinguishing between formal institutional capacity (i.e., budget, staff) and informal embedded capacity (i.e., community ties, insulation from political pressures). Using qualitative data and interviews with county health officers in California, this article shows that informal embedded capacity—while difficult to measure—is essential to public health capacity. It concludes by relating public health capacity to broader issues of state capacity and democracy.

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Urban Affairs Review
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Panel 1: Executive Power Over Agencies and Funding
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During the event, held at Stanford Law School, panelists, including Diego Zambrano and Francis Fukuyama, examined the constitutional questions and rule-of-law tensions sparked by the Trump administration’s expansive and boundary-testing use of executive power.

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Nora Sulots
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As the global climate crisis accelerates, cities around the world are grappling with an increasingly urgent question: how can local governments protect communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems from the rising tide of environmental disruption? This May, Stanford University will bring that question to the forefront with a landmark event examining how two dynamic and diverse cities — Los Angeles and Tel Aviv-Yafo — are responding to the climate challenge from the ground up.

Taking place May 29–30, 2025, and hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Environmental Social Sciences department at Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability, Climate Resilience and Local Governmental Policy: Lessons from Los Angeles and Tel Aviv will be the largest academic conference ever held on Israel’s climate policy. The two-day event will convene experts from both cities to explore how local institutions are building equitable, sustainable, and adaptive systems to confront growing environmental risks.
 


This is not just a policy conversation. This is about how we prepare our communities for an uncertain future.
Alon Tal
Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies (FSI); Conference Chair


A Pivotal Moment for Climate Policy


In early May, Israel faced its second major wildfire in a month, as flames tore through the woodlands around Jerusalem, forcing the shutdown of the central region and the cancellation of Independence Day celebrations. Conference Chair, Professor Alon Tal, Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies and a leading environmental advocate, explained that once a rare occurrence, such fires have become far more frequent, reflecting a broader international pattern.

“In the past, fires of this magnitude maybe happened once a decade,” Tal noted. “But like California, Israel’s fire service now reports a tripling of high-risk fire days — ultra-dry conditions paired with high winds. This is an international phenomenon. This past year, Canadian fires destroyed 45 million acres of woodlands — seven times the annual average. Israel has received a wake-up call about the impacts of the climate crisis.”

Across two days of programming, the conference will bring together 25 Israeli experts to discuss potential solutions alongside colleagues from Los Angeles and California. “This is not just a policy conversation. This is about how we prepare our communities for an uncertain future,” Tal said. “Both Los Angeles and Tel Aviv are confronting real environmental risks, but they also have the innovation ecosystems and civic infrastructure needed to respond creatively. We have a lot to learn from studying them side by side.”

Comparing Los Angeles and Tel Aviv offers scholars and policymakers unique insights, Tal believes. “These are two of the most creative cities in the world. They both have thriving tech sectors and liberal city governments with resources and professional expertise. At the same time, they face comparable challenges: they are both dryland cities on rising coastlines, where heat waves are becoming more treacherous. Bringing their top experts together at Stanford has tremendous merit.”

Rethinking Climate Governance at the City Level


Tal emphasized that local governments are increasingly bearing the burden of climate adaptation, especially in societies marked by inequality and demographic complexity. “The changing climate brings new challenges that cities need to be ready for. And they aren’t,” he said. “Most people live in cities — they need the tools (and the budget) to reduce new risks. The LA fires have left enormous human suffering in their wake, just like the climate-driven floods in New Orleans, Houston, and New York City did. So, the question is: what steps should cities take proactively to avert disasters and maintain stability?”

While Tal emphasized the immediate environmental threats, Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and director of the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program, framed the discussion within a broader governance context. “It is often said that ‘all politics is local,’ and there is a policy corollary to that. While we need national policies and international coordination to reduce fossil fuel emissions and accelerate the transition to renewable energy, the challenges of climate adaptation and resilience are also deeply local and must be met at that level. This is a great opportunity for all of us to learn from two cities on the front lines of the challenge in our respective countries — Tel Aviv and Los Angeles.”
 


This is a great opportunity for all of us to learn from two cities on the front lines of the [climate adaptation] challenge in our respective countries — Tel Aviv and Los Angeles.
Larry Diamond
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy (FSI); Director, Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program



A Vision for Collaborative Learning


The event also reflects the broader goals of Stanford’s Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program, launched in 2023 to foster cross-disciplinary analysis of Israel and its unique position as a regional influence and geopolitical actor. The program appoints an Israel-based scholar to serve as a visiting fellow at FSI for a recurring three-year term. The fellow will teach courses related to some aspect of Israel’s politics, society, economy, modern history, technological development, and/or regional or international relations, as well as advise students and collaborate with faculty interested in Israel and the Middle East.

Diamond emphasized the significance of the conference in fulfilling the program’s mission. “One of our key goals in the Israel Studies Program is to engage scholars, policymakers, and civil society leaders in Israel, not only individually but collectively based on their expertise. And we seek to promote functional and scholarly interaction and mutual learning. This conference is a historic opportunity to advance this mission in the realm of climate resilience.”

Tal also highlighted the significance of hosting the conference at Stanford. “Stanford has become the world’s leading academic center for researching critical ecological problems like biodiversity and climate change. The Doerr School of Sustainability and the involvement of Nobel laureate Steven Chu as a keynote speaker make this an unparalleled opportunity for collaboration.”

 

Alon Tal and Larry Diamond
Alon Tal and Larry Diamond

Building a Lasting Impact


Tal hopes the conference will catalyze new approaches to addressing climate impacts. “It’s clear that new environmental conditions require new strategies and technologies. Seeing practical solutions firsthand is crucial, but they don’t matter without policies that enable cities to step up their climate mitigation game. Success stories need to be shared.”

The conference outcomes will be documented in a special issue of the academic journal Sustainability, ensuring that insights resonate beyond the event itself. “By focusing on urban policies and highlighting both successes and failures, we aim to chart pathways for cities to live with global warming while mitigating emissions to address the root causes,” Tal said.

Diamond further expressed his hopes for the conference’s impact. “We hope participants will not only take away specific ideas and strategies from the two cities and countries but also connections that can be of mutual practical value going forward. We want to underscore that Israel and California, with their similar climates and start-up cultures, have a particularly rich set of possibilities for collaboration and mutual learning.”

Community members and members of the public are invited to participate in this pivotal conversation. To view the full agenda and register, visit the conference website.

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Alon Tal joins the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studeis as a Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies
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Professor Tal’s expertise in sustainability and public policy will offer students valuable insight into the intersection of climate change issues and politics in the Middle East.
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Larry Diamond, Or Rabinowitz, Yonatan Eyov, and Amichai Magen in discussion in the Bechtel Conference Center at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.
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Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies Program is in Full Swing at FSI

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Los Angeles and Tel Aviv skylines.
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The two-day conference, “Climate Resilience and Local Governmental Policy: Lessons from Los Angeles and Tel Aviv,” will take place May 29-30, and is hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Environmental Social Sciences department at Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability.

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