Religion
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CDDRL Visiting Scholar, 2024-25
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I am a political scientist specializing in elections, voting behavior, public opinion, and Turkish politics. I have led and participated in major cross-national and national projects such as the Turkish Election Study (TES), Turkish Giving Behaviour Study, International Social Survey Program (ISSP), and Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). I took part in the planning committees for Modules 5 and 6 in CSES and ISSP modules on family and changing gender roles (2012, 2022), religion (2018), and social networks (2017). I am the founding PI in TES and developed the campaign media content data program, which documents daily campaign content for over ten national newspapers since 2002. My work can be accessed here.

My current research is an exploration of the secularization process in Turkey, a topic where the evidence has so far been mixed. Some scholars find the Turkish experience to possess reflections of secularization, as expected following classical modernization theory, while others present evidence that contradicts these expectations. The most recent contributions to this literature now focus on outliers where resistance to secularization exists, and one even finds a resurgence of religiosity in various dimensions of social life. I focus on Turkey, which can be considered an outlier. In the past, I have contributed to this literature through several projects and articles and touched upon the enduring influence of religion in political life.

My main argument in this project is that Turkish society's dual character, where a potentially secularizing group faces an increasingly resacralizing group, is responsible for the contrasting findings about secularization and creating the Turkish outlier. I follow historical and quantitative research, bringing together comprehensive data that focus on the country's critical areas of social development. I argue that underlying Turkish ideological and affective polarization is the dual character of Turkish society with opposing secularization trends.

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Pop Gregory

The starting point for many analyses of European state development is the historical fragmentation of territorial authority. The dominant bellicist explanation for state formation argues that this fragmentation was an unintended consequence of imperial collapse, and that warfare in the early modern era overcame fragmentation by winnowing out small polities and consolidating strong states. Using new data on papal conflict and religious institutions, I show instead that political fragmentation was the outcome of deliberate choices, that it is closely associated with papal conflict, and that political fragmentation persisted for longer than the bellicist explanations would predict. The medieval Catholic Church deliberately and effectively splintered political power in Europe by forming temporal alliances, funding proxy wars, launching crusades, and advancing ideology to ensure its autonomy and power. The roots of European state formation are thus more religious, older, and intentional than often assumed.

Awarded the Best Article Prize by the Comparative Politics section of the American Political Science Association in June 2024.

 

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American Political Science Review
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Anna Grzymała-Busse
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CDDRL Honors Student, 2024-25
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Major: International Relations
Hometown: Redwood City, California 
Thesis Advisor: Abbas Milani

Tentative Thesis Title: From Kashf-e-Hijab to the Islamic Republic: Veiling, Unveiling, and State Power in Iran

Future aspirations post-Stanford: I participated in the Stanford in Washington program last fall and loved exploring the city, working in government, and learning from incredible mentors. I'd love to go back to D.C. after graduation and work at the intersection of foreign policy and women's rights.

A fun fact about yourself: I have been a competitive opera singer for twelve years!

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Under what conditions do powerful ideological movements arise and transform politics? The Protestant Reformation changed the religious, social, and economic landscape of Europe. While the existing literature has focused on the mechanisms and institutions of its spread, this article argues that an important precondition for the spread of the Protestant Reformation was territorial fragmentation, and the political autonomy it offered local rulers. Local rulers could then protect the reform movement both from central authorities, and from local rivals. Where power was centralized, kings could more easily either adopt or defeat the new religion. Using a data set that includes measures of territorial fragmentation, I find that it is strongly associated with the rise and diffusion of the Protestant Reformation. Local political heterogeneity can thus protect and diffuse ideological innovations.

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Journal of Historical Political Economy
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Anna Grzymała-Busse
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Born in the aftermath of World War II, the State of Israel has undergone remarkable development as a nation over the past 75 years, oscillating between periods of war and strained peace while building a vibrant multiethnic society, economy, and technology sector. Taught by Larry Diamond (Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and professor, by courtesy, of sociology and of political science) and Amichai Magen (visiting professor and fellow in Israel Studies at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies), this 10-week online course will offer an informed analysis of modern Israel. Each week, the professors will be joined by Stanford experts and other guest speakers who will analyze important dimensions of Israeli life.

This course will inevitably dedicate time to the ongoing Middle East conflict, which again exploded into violence last October, and to the continuing efforts to find a formula for Israeli-Palestinian peace. In this context, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will discuss the emerging dynamics of geopolitics in the Middle East, and former Palestinian negotiator Ghaith al-Omari and Ambassador Dennis Ross will explore options for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. In addition, Israeli author Yossi Klein Halevi will revisit his New York Times bestselling book, Letters to My Palestinian Neighbor, in light of the October 7, 2023, Hamas terror attack and the subsequent Gaza war. But the course will also look beyond the conflict, venturing into other lesser-known areas of Israeli life and history, including lectures on the politics of historical memory in divided societies with Stanford professor of history James T. Campbell, and Zionism and anti-Zionism with Stanford professor of the humanities Russell Berman. UC Berkeley School of Law professor Masua Sagiv will discuss the constitutional questions central to Israel’s effort to have a Jewish and democratic state. As we proceed, Sophia Khalifa Shramko will share the experience of growing up as an Arab woman in Israel. Finally, Stanford professor of economics Ran Abramitzky and Stanford visiting professor Alon Tal will explore Israel’s modern economy and efforts to use innovation to achieve sustainability in an environmentally challenging region. 

Please note: There are no formal prerequisites for this course, though prior interest and engagement with topics related to Israel and the Middle East are an advantage. This course is co-sponsored by Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and it is an adaptation of a class offered to Stanford undergraduates.

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Amichai Magen, Marshall Burke, Didi Kuo, Larry Diamond, and Michael McFaul onstage for a panel discussion at Stanford's 2023 Reunion and Homecoming
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At Reunion Homecoming, FSI Scholars Offer Five Policy Recommendations for the Biden Administration

FSI scholars offer their thoughts on what can be done to address political polarization in the United States, tensions between Taiwan and China, climate change, the war in Ukraine, and the Israel-Hamas war.
At Reunion Homecoming, FSI Scholars Offer Five Policy Recommendations for the Biden Administration
Family and friends of May Naim, 24, who was murdered by Palestinians militants at the "Supernova" festival, near the Israeli border with Gaza strip, react during her funeral on October 11, 2023 in Gan Haim, Israel. (Getty Images)
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FSI Scholars Analyze Implications of Hamas’ Terror Attack on Israel

Larry Diamond moderated a discussion between Ori Rabinowitz, Amichai Magen and Abbas Milani on the effects of Hamas’ attacks on Israel and what the emerging conflict means for Israel and Middle Eastern geopolitics.
FSI Scholars Analyze Implications of Hamas’ Terror Attack on Israel
Protestors wave flags as thousands of Israelis attend a rally against Israeli Government's judicial overhaul plan on March 27, 2023 in Jerusalem, Israel.
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What’s Happening to Israel’s Democracy?

Law and governance expert Amichai Magen joins FSI Director Michael McFaul on the World Class podcast to discuss the judicial reforms recently passed by Israel’s legislature, and the implications these have for democracy in Israel and beyond.
What’s Happening to Israel’s Democracy?
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Open for enrollment now through Stanford Continuing Studies, "Modern Israel: Insights and Analysis from Stanford Scholars and Guests" will run online for ten weeks on Wednesdays, from April 3 through June 5.

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Rachel Owens
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Why do politicians belonging to religious minorities attain the highest political offices in some countries but not others? Koç University Professor of International Relations Şener Aktürk presented his research on the subject in a CDDRL research seminar series talk

A key element in shaping this outcome, Aktürk argued, is the configuration of a given nation’s constitutive conflict, which often takes the form of wars of independence or civil wars.  If the primary adversary in this conflict is of a different religion, he explained, the majority religion will likely be closely associated with national identity. However, in cases where that adversary is of the same religious sect, religious identity will end up becoming less central in the formation of national identity. Accordingly, it will become easier for religious minority politicians to assume leadership afterward.  If the majority religion is nationally institutionalized — which generally coincides with constitutive conflict structured along religious lines – it will likely be difficult for minority politicians to rise through the ranks. 

To illustrate this pattern, Aktürk reviewed the religious affiliation of chief executives across various countries. In the United Kingdom, whose constitutive conflict pitted Protestants against Catholics — and resulted in a Protestant victory — every Prime Minister from 1721 through 2021 was Protestant. Any claimed exceptions converted are a telling sign. Catholic, Jewish, and Muslim religious minorities had their first representatives, or “pioneers,” in the House of Commons by affiliating with the left, demonstrating that left-liberalism was their entry point into politics. 

In Catholic France, where the constitutive conflict was internal (French Revolution), there were 5 Protestant Prime Ministers, with the first one elected within the first 50 years of the Third Republic, when the new republican regime consolidated. A Jewish Prime Minister was reelected three times. The left represented politicians of minority religions, whereas the right represented those of the core group. 

In Hungary, the formative conflict consisted of Catholics fighting against each other. This has allowed Protestant minority leaders to claim they are more nationalistic than their Catholic counterparts, who were presumably forced to pick between their nation and religion. A similar story holds in Italy, the first country to have a Jewish Prime Minister. 

Germany is the most unique case, as it experienced a change in constitutive conflict. Following the Franco-Prussian War, Germany was majority Protestant, with state persecution of the Catholic minority. However, a bloodier and more traumatic constitutive conflict replaced the first one — the Holocaust and World War II. Under Hitler, who was of Austrian Catholic origin, German nationalism ceased to be a Protestant-led movement.

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Miriam Golden presents during a CDDRL research seminar
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Civil Service Reform and Reelection Rates in the United States

Miriam Golden argues that a decline in patronage appointments to state bureaucracies due to civil service legislation increased reelection rates in state legislatures.
Civil Service Reform and Reelection Rates in the United States
Pauline Jones REDS Seminar
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Kazakhstan’s Public Opinion and Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Professor of Political Science Pauline Jones explored how Russia’s renewed aggression in Ukraine will affect Moscow’s relations with its Eurasian neighbors in a recent REDS Seminar talk, co-sponsored by CDDRL and TEC.
Kazakhstan’s Public Opinion and Russia’s War Against Ukraine
Mona Tajali presents at CDDRL seminar
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Women and Politics in Iran and Turkey

CDDRL Visiting Scholar Mona Tajali explores the complexities of women’s representation under autocratic governments, using the contexts of Iran and Turkey.
Women and Politics in Iran and Turkey
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Şener Aktürk presented his research on the subject in a recent CDDRL research seminar series talk.

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How and when can religious times become focal points for communal violence? In the context of Hindu-Muslim riots in India, I argue that incompatible ritual holidays where one religion's rituals are at odds with the other religion (e.g. sacrificing cows or engaging in processions with idolatry) explains the positive effect of sacred time on religious rioting. Holidays with incompatible rituals provide doctrinal differences that make riots more likely. I provide support for this argument by (1) analyzing riot data across 100 years of Hindu-Muslim riots, (2) exploring individual-level surveys responses on holidays, and (3) describing the way different holiday rituals play a role in violence. By focusing on the content of religion, this paper demonstrates how particular religious holidays can provide the underlying conditions that riot entrepreneurs use to incite religious violence.

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CDDRL Working Papers
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Feyaad Allie
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Economic development has been linked to a declining importance of religion. But alongside secularization, there has been an increased salience of religion in electoral politics. These seemingly contradictory trends can be understood by distinguishing between two dimensions of religiosity: religious belief and church attendance. We show that religious voting cleavages are strongest in democracies where there is religious cohesion, which means belief and practice go hand in hand. Voting cleavages require group members to have distinctive policy preferences and be politically engaged. Strong religious beliefs are associated with distinctive policy preferences (but not with political engagement), and church attendance is associated with political engagement. Thus, religious cohesion provides the key ingredients for a religious political cleavage. But what explains variation in religious cohesion in democracies? We find that religious cohesion increases with economic security. Thus, economic security can promote secularization, but also facilitate the religious cohesion associated with strong religious voting cleavages.

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Comparative Political Studies
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John Huber
Ahmed Ezzeldin Mohamed
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Building resilient inter-ethnic peace: Hindus and Muslims in South Asia

A key challenge that many nations face in the 21st century is to build societies that not only are able to peacefully accommodate increasing ethnic diversity but also to leverage its potential benefits. This is not a straightforward task. Ethnically diverse communities tend to provide fewer public goods to their citizens (e.g. Alesina et al. 2004, Alesina and La Ferrara 2005) and are less likely to voice common priorities (e.g. Ban et al. 2012). With ethnic identities often coordinating political competition as well, it is perhaps not surprising that violent conflict is more likely in ethnically polarised countries and regions (e.g. Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005, Esteban et al. 2012, Jha 2023 and Figure 1). With 82.1 million people around the world forcibly displaced due to persecution and conflict in 2020, and widespread economic migration, the challenge of building resilient inter-ethnic peace is one faced not only by societies that have been diverse historically but increasingly in nations and communities with less experience navigating a diverse setting.

What can economic theory, in combination with the historical experiences of these communities, tell us about the necessary conditions for resilient inter-ethnic peace, and how these can be fostered?



This book presents a synthesis of key recent advances in political-economy research on the various approaches and strategies used in the process of building nations throughout modern history. It features chapters written by leading scholars who describe the findings of their quantitative analyses of the risks and benefits of different nation-building policies. The book is comprised of 26 chapters organized into six sections, each focusing on a different aspect of nation-building. The first chapter presents a unified framework for assessing nation-building policies, highlights potential challenges that may arise, provides a summary of each of the other chapters, and draws out the main lessons from them. The following chapters delve into the importance of social interactions for national identification, the role of education, propaganda and leadership, external interventions and wars, and the effects of representation and redistribution. The book offers a nuanced understanding of effective nation-building policies.

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Chapter in Nation Building: Big Lessons from Successes and Failures, edited by Dominic Rohner and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

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Saumitra Jha
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CEPR Press
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Hesham Sallam
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In a talk hosted by the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy on October 31, 2022, Hicham Alaoui, founder and director of the Hicham Alaoui Foundation, discussed his latest book – Pacted Democracy in the Middle East: Tunisia and Egypt in Comparative Perspective (Palgrave Macmillan, 2022).

During the event, co-sponsored by Stanford’s Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies and the Center for African Studies, Alaoui presented a new theory for how democracy can materialize in the Middle East, and the broader Muslim world. He explained that one pathway to democratization lays not in resolving important, but often irreconcilable, debates about the role of religion in politics. Rather, it requires that Islamists and their secular opponents focus on the concerns of pragmatic survival—that is, compromise through pacting, rather than battling through difficult philosophical issues about faith.

You can purchase the book online, and watch a recording of the event below:

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To mark the 20th anniversary of the establishment of CDDRL, the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy (ARD) at CDDRL hosted a talk featuring Hicham Alaoui, founder and director of the Hicham Alaoui Foundation, who discussed his latest book – Pacted Democracy in the Middle East: Tunisia and Egypt in Comparative Perspective (Palgrave Macmillan, 2022).

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