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The Metaverse Community Forum, conducted in collaboration with Stanford’s Deliberative Democracy Lab on the topic of bullying and harassment, was a first-of-its-kind experiment in global deliberation. It sets an example for thoughtful and scientifically based public consultation on an emerging set of issues posed by new technology. In doing so, it shows that global deliberation is entirely feasible and could be applied to other public policy issues of global interest.

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Report prepared by the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University, housed within the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

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James S. Fishkin
Alice Siu
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In political science, one issue still in need of greater theorizing is the proper measurement of bureaucratic autonomy, that is, the degree of discretion that political principals should grant to bureaucratic agents. This article reviews the literature on bureaucratic autonomy both in US administrative law and in political science. It uses the American experience to define five mechanisms by which political principals grant and limit autonomy, then goes on to survey the comparative literature on other democratic systems using the American framework as a baseline. Other democracies use different mixtures of these mechanisms, for example by substituting stronger ex post review for ex ante procedures or using appointment and removal power in place of either. We find that the administrative law and social science literatures on this topic approach it very differently, and that each would profit from greater awareness of the other discipline.

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Annual Review of Political Science
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Katherine Bersch
Francis Fukuyama
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213-232
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Nora Sulots
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The National Assembly of South Korea has just convened a nationally broadcast Deliberative Poll® to consult the public about changes in its electoral system. The Korea Broadcasting System (KBS) televised the proceedings live May 6 and 13, 2023 and reported on its initial results. Hankook Research, which has extensive experience with Deliberative Polling® in Korea, conducted the project in coordination with Stanford’s Deliberative Democracy Lab (DDL), housed at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. At the conclusion of the deliberations, the Speaker of the National Assembly, Kim Jin-Pyo, announced on television that “this [poll] provides an excellent guideline for the ruling party and others to negotiate and decide the rules. The reform should be finalized by the end of the second quarter of this year.” Professor James Fishkin, director of DDL, provided advice on the project and joined the broadcast to explain Deliberative Polling®.

Background


The need to reform the parliamentary election system has received unanimous approval across political parties. During the 2022 presidential election, all candidates pledged to change the parliamentary electoral reform. To change the current system, the 21st National Assembly, elected in 2020, formed the Special Committee for Electoral Reform (Special Committee). Last April, the Special Committee came up with three agendas to be discussed in a Whole House Committee Meeting (Whole House Meeting) where 100 legislators can speak at length. However, the Whole House Meeting could not arrive at an agreed conclusion. On the last day of the three-day-long Whole House Meeting, the Special Committee announced that it designated the consortium comprised of Hankook Research and Seoul National University’s Institute for Social Development as the organizers of the Deliberative Polling to gather informed public opinion.

About the Deliberative Poll


Hankook Research recruited a national stratified random sample of the country’s voters to deliberate on parts of two weekends. 469 participants completed the deliberations. The sample was stratified by region, gender, age, and opinions on the issue (measured in a separate survey).

The participants answered some key questions in time for the concluding broadcast and then followed by completing a more detailed questionnaire. The National Assembly has members selected both from single-member districts and by proportional representation. Support for changing the election rules rose from 77% to 84% with deliberation. Support for small single-member districts (rather than multi-member districts) rose from 43% to 56%. Support for raising the proportion of the members selected by Proportional Representation (PR) went from 27% to 70%, a surprising 43-point gain. These results were presented on the broadcast, and more details about the deliberations and the results will be released soon.

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A playlist of highlights from the broadcast can be viewed below:

For more information on this project, please contact Chun-Seok Kim or Jung-Seok Park of Hankook Research, or Professor James Fishkin of Stanford’s Deliberative Democracy Lab. 

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On May 25, CDDRL’s Deliberative Democracy Lab (DDL), in partnership with the Nobel Prize Summit, will run an exercise in large-scale group deliberation on the subject of online misinformation and polarization and what to do about it. This demonstration will help develop the capacity to democratically vet policy proposals concerning the information landscape.
Deliberative Democracy Lab to Demonstrate Deliberative Polling® Method at the 2023 Nobel Prize Summit
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California 100 Announces Results of New "California Considers" Deliberative Poll® Examining Long-Term Policy Solutions for California

Conducted in partnership with CDDRL's Deliberative Democracy Lab and the UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy, key findings show strong support for the state to provide universal mental healthcare, institute a strengthened high school civics course, develop a “one-stop-shop” for easier access to government programs, reform for the state’s CEQA law, and increase its support for K-12 education, among others.
California 100 Announces Results of New "California Considers" Deliberative Poll® Examining Long-Term Policy Solutions for California
Climate change activists march down a street carrying banners and signs.
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Together For Our Planet: Americans are More Aligned on Taking Action on Climate Change than Expected

New data from the Center for Deliberative Democracy suggests that when given the opportunity to discuss climate change in a substantive way, the majority of Americans are open to taking proactive measures to address the global climate crisis.
Together For Our Planet: Americans are More Aligned on Taking Action on Climate Change than Expected
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Broadcast of South Korean national Deliberative Poll on Electoral Reform
KBS Announcer Lee Kwang-yong (center left) and Speaker of the National Assembly Kim Jin-pyo (center right) announce the results of the national Deliberative Poll® during a live television broadcast.
Korea Broadcasting System (KBS)
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Stanford’s Deliberative Democracy Lab assisted with a nationally broadcast Deliberative Poll® in South Korea to explore support for changing the country’s election laws. The project was conducted for the National Assembly by Hankook Research.

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Nora Sulots
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The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law proudly congratulates its 2023 graduating class of honors students for their outstanding original research conducted under CDDRL's Fisher Family Honors Program. Among those graduating are Political Science major Tara Hein, who has won a Firestone Medal for her thesis on fragmented citizenship in Chile, and Economics major Sean Michael, winner of the CDDRL Outstanding Thesis Award for his study of Indigenous and Afro-Latin communities in Colombia and Bolivia.

Tara Hein '23 presents her honors thesis
Firestone Medal winner Tara Hein, '23, presents her honors thesis. | Nora Sulots

The Firestone Medal for Excellence in Undergraduate Research recognizes Stanford's top ten percent of honors theses in social science, science, and engineering among the graduating senior class. Tara’s thesis is entitled Seeing Like a Citizen: Fragmented Citizenship in Santiago de Chile. In it, she investigates how socioeconomically vulnerable individuals in Santiago de Chile conceptualize and exercise their citizenship in the wake of the 2019 estallido social. Using qualitative analysis of 31 in-depth, semi-structured interviews, her study develops a grounded theory of “fragmented citizenship.” Fragmentation refers to the asymmetrical and often contradictory experiences of citizenship at the individual level in contexts where the state is highly visible but uneven in its provision of services, programs, and goods. Beyond the convergence of these structural conditions of the state — wide visibility and irregular presence — the study found that participants’ multidimensional ideals of citizenship exacerbate fragmentation by setting high expectations of state provision. Fragmentation, in turn, shapes citizens’ engagement with the state, with respondents more likely to exercise their citizenship in areas where they perceive the state to be functioning effectively. Conversely, participants described strategic disengagement from the state and their citizenship where they perceived it to be less fully and reliably realized, further contributing to fragmentation. Through a nuanced and timely ground-level analysis, Tara’s thesis builds upon prior research on how citizenship plays out in practice in Latin America to provide valuable insight into the crisis of democracy in Chile and beyond, examining the implications of high citizen expectations coupled with uneven state performance for democratic citizenship.

Sean Michael '23 presents his honors thesis
CDDRL Outstanding Thesis Award winner Sean Michael presents his honors thesis. | Nora Sulots

Sean’s thesis is entitled Letter of the Law: Comparing Indigenous Autonomy in Plurinational Colombia and Bolivia. In his thesis, Sean investigates the factors that enable rural Indigenous communities to defend themselves from incursions into their territory by the state, extractive corporations, and guerillas. He utilizes a case study approach, selecting two Indigenous communities each from Colombia and Bolivia, two of the countries with the most robust foundations for plurinational execution. His methodology uses deforestation levels as a proxy for the success of these defensive maneuvers, setting a baseline for the robustness of the country’s plurinational reforms. He then calls on research from anthropology, political science, and economics to understand the complex processes of politicization, power, and identity that surround the conflict in each case study. He finds that both the Colombian and Bolivian examples provide important insights into the strengths of plurinational legal systems but are vulnerable to political and economic threats. The resulting unpredictability allows only the Indigenous communities with high political unity and connections to national-level advocacy organizations to actively overcome the administrative hurdles put between them and autonomous recognition. In order to make plurinational autonomy more accessible to more Indigenous communities, plurinational constitutions require supportive legal scaffolding, robust state protections against corporate and illicit interests, and powerful Indigenous political organizations. This thesis contributes to existing literature by extending analysis beyond a single community, drawing comparisons between the Colombian and Bolivian cases to understand how future plurinational reforms can be implemented to protect autonomous Indigenous enclaves from outside threats.

Tara and Sean are part of a cohort of twelve graduating CDDRL honors students who have spent the past year working in consultation with CDDRL-affiliated faculty members and attending honors research workshops to develop their theses projects. Collectively, their topics documented some of the most pressing issues impacting democracy today in the US, Latin America, Malaysia, and Ukraine, among others.

“We are so proud of this year’s class of Fisher Family Honors program graduates,” shared Didi Kuo, Center Fellow at FSI and co-director of CDDRL’s Fisher Family Honors Program. “All of their theses investigated critical questions related to democracy, violence, and accountability. Tara and Sean’s research furthers our understanding of citizenship and governance in diverse societies, and we congratulate them and their peers on successfully undertaking original research this year.”

We are so proud of this year’s class of Fisher Family Honors program graduates. All of their theses investigated critical questions related to democracy, violence, and accountability, and we congratulate them on successfully undertaking original research this year.
Didi Kuo
Center Fellow, FSI; Co-director, Fisher Family Honors Program

CDDRL's Fisher Family Honors Program trains students from any academic department at Stanford to prepare them to write a policy-relevant research thesis with global impact on a subject touching on democracy, development, and the rule of law. Honors students participate in research methods workshops, attend honors college in Washington, D.C., connect to the CDDRL research community, and write their thesis in close consultation with a faculty advisor to graduate with a certificate of honors in democracy, development, and the rule of law.
 

Explore the rest of the thesis topics of the Fisher Family Honors Program Class of 2023 below:

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CDDRL Congratulates Newly Elected 2023 Phi Beta Kappa Members

Tara Hein and Sorcha Whitley (honors class of 2023) are among the newest members of this prestigious academic honors society.
CDDRL Congratulates Newly Elected 2023 Phi Beta Kappa Members
Riya Mehta
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Riya Mehta (Fisher Family Honors Program class of 2017-18) is among 85 scholars in the Knight-Hennessy Scholars' sixth cohort.
CDDRL Honors Alumna Named 2023 Knight-Hennessy Scholar
Washington Monument, Washington, United States
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Honors Students to Meet with Top-Level Policy Makers in Washington, D.C.

From September 18 through 24, the Fisher Family Honors Program class of 2023 will attend CDDRL's annual Honors College, gaining firsthand exposure to how the federal government, policy organizations, and think tanks work to advance democracy and development around the world.
Honors Students to Meet with Top-Level Policy Makers in Washington, D.C.
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2023 Honors Thesis Award Winners, Tara Hein and Sean Michael
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Tara Hein ('23) is a recipient of the 2023 Firestone Medal and Sean Michael ('23) has won CDDRL's Outstanding Thesis Award.

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Indian politician Rahul Gandhi offered his perspectives on challenges to India’s democracy amid global transitions during a talk on May 31 at Stanford University.

“It’s in times like this, of great uncertainty and of turbulence, that you need acts of imagination,” he said during his address, "The New Global Equilibrium," which was sponsored by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), part of Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI).

Gandhi highlighted global innovations in mobility, energy systems, and artificial intelligence and big data, or connectivity. “They’re going to affect everything” in India and elsewhere.

Gandhi is a former member of the Indian Parliament, who represented the constituencies of Amethi, Uttar Pradesh, and Wayanad, Kerala in the Lok Sabha. He is a member of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, and was the party president from December 2017 to July 2019.

Gandhi reminisced about the ‘Unite India March,’ a democratic-inspired walk he led across the country that started with 125 people in September 2022 and ended with millions of people joining the 2,540-mile journey. And, although the ruling government had all the “force,” the instruments of control in society, the marchers were never stopped, he noted.

“This was a question that just kept rotating in my mind,” Gandhi said. “They have the force, but they don’t have power, and I realized that force and power are two completely different things. Most politicians confuse force and power, and they think they're the same thing. They’re completely different things. Power is an act of imagination, always in the present, and it is not linear. And power comes when you go close to the truth. That’s why we could not be stopped by force.”

Most politicians confuse force and power, and they think they're the same thing. They’re completely different things. Power is an act of imagination, always in the present, and it is not linear. And power comes when you go close to the truth.
Rahul Gandhi
Former President, Indian National Congress

He compared this to other moments of “power” in history, such as when President Kennedy said, ‘let’s go to the moon,’ or when Mahatma Gandhi stood up to the British Empire colonial powers in India, and when the American colonists created the Declaration of Independence to start separating from Britain.

Gandhi said acts of “force” did not drive these historical turning points; rather, they revealed the magnitude of the power of imagination that potentially exists among people to create a better, more just, and visionary world.

Such visioning needs to also inspire and transform the U.S.-India relationship, he believes.

“We already have a bridge between us, and it’s important that this bridge is not simply a bridge based on force, but that it is a bridge based on understanding of the realities of both our people,” said Gandhi, noting the software and technical skills of the Indian people in general match up extremely well with the leading-edge technology systems and markets in the U.S.

Dinsha Mistree and Rahul Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi (R) in conversation with CDDRL affiliated scholar Dinsha Mistree (L) during a speaking engagement at Stanford University on May 31, 2023. | Basil Raj Kunnel

U.S. Relationship, Manufacturing, China


After his remarks, Gandhi engaged in an audience Q&A and conversation with Dinsha Mistree, an affiliated scholar with CDDRL. Gandhi elaborated that the political disconnect in India is attributable to a concentration of wealth, inequality throughout society, the current political system, and technology that’s outpacing the ability of social systems and people to digest and manage all the connectivity.

“With social media and technology, there’s a bit of a lag between the political system and technological progress, and I think democracies are struggling with that. I think evolution in the systems is going to take some time, but it’ll happen,” he said.

With social media and technology, there’s a bit of a lag between the political system and technological progress, and I think democracies are struggling with that. I think evolution in the systems is going to take some time, but it’ll happen.
Rahul Gandhi
Former President, Indian National Congress

On economics, Gandhi said that while China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure project that aims to stretch around the globe and seems to promote prosperity, it’s ultimately a non-democratic and authoritarian vision of the world. More visioning needs to be done by leading democratic countries on what prosperity entails for societies that may not be as wealthy as others.

“What’s the counter vision? So that’s where I see the gap. Of course, there is military cooperation (with the U.S.). That’s important. But it can’t just be military cooperation,” he said.

As for China, their top-down manufacturing policies are a challenge for democratic countries like India. Gandhi recommends that India follows a more decentralized manufacturing process.

“You cannot simply ignore the manufacturing might of China. You have to compete with. I don’t think it’s an option. So, what does that competition look like? I’m not talking about conflict, I’m talking about competition. How do we create an alternative vision?” he said, adding that it was a “fatal mistake” for the U.S. to parcel out its manufacturing in recent decades to China.

In response to an audience question on India’s position of formal neutrality in the Ukraine-Russia war, Gandhi said, “We have a relationship with Russia, and we have certain dependencies on Russia. So, I would have a very similar stance as the government of India. I mean, it might not be popular, but it is what it is. At the end of the day, we have to also look out for our interests.”

A packed auditorium of nearly 600 people gathered to hear Mr. Gandhi speak
A packed auditorium of nearly 600 people gathered to hear Mr. Gandhi speak. | Basil Raj Kunnel

Democracy and Political Opposition


Mistree shared in an email prior to the event that Gandhi believes that India and the U.S. could work together in better ways on trade and economics.

For example, Gandhi’s view is that India could become a manufacturing powerhouse, which is a departure from the current ruling party’s position, while the U.S. continues to innovate and turns to India for more of its manufacturing needs, Mistree said.

“There’s a lot of space for these two countries to work much more closely together,” he said, adding that the Indian diaspora in America represents the second largest immigrant group in the country right now, and both countries share common security challenges in Asia.

Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at FSI, noted that Gandhi is the leader of the most important opposition party in India.

“You can’t have a democracy unless you have a political opposition that is free to criticize the ruling party, and contest for power. He has also been questioning directly the concentration and abuse of power by the current government,” Diamond wrote in an email prior to Gandhi’s talk.

Diamond added that U.S. and India have important, economic and strategic interests that should move forward in partnership based on their own logic.

“We need to hear and take seriously the concerns of political opposition and civil society in India, and we need to make clear to the Indian government that violations of basic democratic standards present obstacles to the deepening of U.S.-Indian ties,” Diamond said.

We need to hear and take seriously the concerns of political opposition and civil society in India, and we need to make clear to the Indian government that violations of basic democratic standards present obstacles to the deepening of U.S.-Indian ties.
Larry Diamond
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, FSI

Gandhi was on a six-day visit to the United States to interact with the Indian diaspora and express his party’s commitment to democratic values in India and across the world.

He said, “There are difficult times, but there are also times of opportunity. I think there are times when acts of imagination and acts of true power will resonate and can transform the way we think of ourselves.”

Rahul Gandhi takes photos with fans following his talk at Stanford University
Rahul Gandhi takes photos with fans following his talk at CEMEX Auditorium. | Basil Raj Kunnel

For additional coverage of this event, read "Rahul Gandhi emphasizes role of technology, imagining in India’s future," by Amina Wase in The Stanford Daily.

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Rahul Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi speaks at Stanford University on May 31, 2023.
Basil Raj Kunnel
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Rahul Gandhi, an Indian politician and former president of the Indian National Congress, delivered a speech at Stanford University on May 31, emphasizing the power of imagination in overcoming challenges to India's democracy. Gandhi also discussed the need for a stronger U.S.-India relationship, addressed the impact of technological progress, and highlighted the importance of competition with China in manufacturing.

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Nora Sulots
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The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law is pleased to announce the release of the third module of mini-lectures in our Solving Public Policy Problems massive open online course (MOOC).

Case studies like this are instrumental to the curriculum for both CDDRL’s Leadership Academy for Development (LAD) and the Masters’ in International Policy (MIP). They address a wide range of issues in developing countries and are designed to encourage you to think critically about key decisions that have led to policy reforms. This video refers to the implementation segment of the Problem-Solving Framework (module 1.3).

Case Study: Gifford Pinchot and Sustainable Forest Management


The year was 1909, and Gifford Pinchot, Chief Forester of the United States, faced a terrible personal dilemma. He had discovered a pattern of corruption in the sale of public lands to developers and other private interests. But the new president, William Howard Taft, depended on support from western Republicans and had placed a gag order on the whole affair. Pinchot was outraged at this evidence of corruption reaching the White House, but he wanted to give Taft a fair hearing. The new president had, after all, vowed to support conservation and strong control over federal lands. Taft invited Pinchot to the White House, where he alternately implored Pinchot not to go public with the matter and threatened him with dismissal if he violated the gag order. Pinchot had in his pocket a letter that could expose the scandal. This case explores the dilemma of Pinchot, a mid-level bureaucrat dependent on a president’s good will, and the strategies available to him. It shows the power of a single leader and the similarities the United States once had with many developing nations struggling with widespread corruption.

Through this case, students will gain a better understanding of how good communication is important for persuading stakeholders that a reform objective is both achievable and beneficial.

You can read the case study here, access the full series on our YouTube page, and watch Module 3 below:

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Module 2 of CDDRL’s “Solving Public Policy Problems” Online Course Out Now
Solving Public Policy Problems
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Reimagining Public Policy Education at Stanford and Beyond

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Gifford Pinchot at his desk.
Frances Benjamin Johnston | Library of Congress
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This single-video module examines the case of Gifford Pinchot and Sustainable Forest Management. Through this case study, students will gain a better understanding of how good communication is important for persuading stakeholders that a reform objective is both achievable and beneficial.

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The New Global Equilibrium, talk by Rahul Gandhi

Please join us on Wednesday, May 31, for a talk by Indian politician Rahul Gandhi.


Mr. Gandhi will offer his unique perspective on the changing world order and India's crucial role within it. Following his talk, Mr. Gandhi will engage in a conversation with CDDRL Affiliated Scholar Dinsha Mistree.

Registration is required. Please note that large bags will not be permitted into the venue, and all bags are subject to search.

SPEAKERS

Rahul Gandhi

Rahul Gandhi

Former President, Indian National Congress

Rahul Gandhi was a Member of Parliament from 2004 until earlier this year. In March 2023, he was disqualified from Parliament pursuant to a court verdict that is currently under challenge in a higher court. He last represented the constituency of Wayanad in Kerala in the Lok Sabha and, prior to that, served three terms as MP from Amethi in Uttar Pradesh. In 2007, he was named General Secretary of the Indian National Congress in charge of the youth and student organizations of the Party. In January 2013, he assumed office as Vice President of the Indian National Congress. He was the President of the Indian National Congress from December 2017 to July 2019.

Rahul was born on June 19, 1970, to Rajiv and Sonia Gandhi. He has attended St. Stephen’s College, Delhi, Harvard College, and Rollins College, Florida, from which he graduated with a Bachelor of Arts. He went on to receive an M. Phil. in Development Studies from Trinity College, Cambridge University. Thereafter, he joined the Monitor Group, a strategy consulting group in London, where he worked for three years.

In the past, Rahul was a member of the Parliamentary Standing Committees on Home Affairs, Human Resource Development, External Affairs, Finance and Defence and the Consultative Committees for the Ministry of Civil Aviation, the Ministry of Rural Development, the Ministry of Finance & Corporate Affairs and the Ministry of External Affairs.

Rahul has championed the development of a self-help group movement and a non-profit eye care provider in North India.  He also serves as a trustee of the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation.

Dinsha Mistree

Dinsha Mistree

Affiliated Scholar (CDDRL), Research Fellow (Hoover Institution), Research Fellow (Rule of Law Program, Stanford Law School)
Moderator

Dinsha Mistree is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he manages the Program on Strengthening US-Indian Relations. He is also a research fellow in the Rule of Law Program at Stanford Law School and an affiliated scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. Dr. Mistree studies the relationship between governance and economic growth in developing countries. His scholarship concentrates on the political economy of legal systems, public administration, and education policy, with a regional focus on India. He holds a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Politics from Princeton University, with an S.M. and an S.B. from MIT. He previously held a postdoctoral fellowship at CDDRL and was a visiting scholar at IIM-Ahmedabad.

Dinsha Mistree
Dinsha Mistree

CEMEX Auditorium (Stanford Graduate School of Business)
655 Knight Way, Stanford, CA 94305

In-person only. No streaming link.

Rahul Gandhi
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Turkey is bracing for what is expected to be a pivotal moment in its political history as the country gears up to hold parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14, 2023. With a range of significant challenges facing Turkey — from the erosion of democratic institutions to economic instability and concerns about its foreign policy — the outcome of the elections is likely to have far-reaching implications for the country's future.

To shed light on the electoral landscape and the stakes involved, we sat down with Ayça Alemdaroğlu, Associate Director of CDDRL’s Program on Turkey, to discuss the key issues at play and what they mean for Turkey's trajectory.

Turkey will have two elections on Sunday, May 14. Can you talk about why these elections are important?


The upcoming elections in Turkey hold immense importance due to several reasons. The country has faced a multitude of challenges, including the erosion of democratic institutions, political polarization, and a struggling economy. Firstly, the government, led by President Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party(AKP), has used its power to silence opposition voices, restrict the press, control the judiciary, and crack down on civil society organizations. These actions have led to fear and intimidation among citizens, creating an environment where dissent is not tolerated. In addition, the government's efforts to centralize power under the presidency have further weakened the checks and balances essential to a functioning democracy. This election is Turkey's chance to reverse the democratic decline.

Secondly, the two major earthquakes that affected 11 cities and millions of people in February exposed the decay in state institutions under the current government, causing significant human and urban destruction. When the current government is responsible for much of this destruction, it will be a mistake to let it lead to the urgent recovery needed in the earthquake region.

Thirdly, Turkey's economy is in disarray due to President Erdogan's erratic economic policies and mismanagement, leading to rising inflation rates, a weakened currency, and economic instability. The COVID-19 pandemic has only added to these challenges, further impoverishing the people. In addition, the economic situation has resulted in an exodus of the most educated sections of society, causing a significant setback to Turkey's human development and economic potential. Therefore, Turkey needs a government that can fix these economic problems.

Finally, the elections come at a time when Turkey faces increased tensions with several international actors, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine adds to the existing pressures. The foreign policy stance of the next government will have far-reaching implications for global democracy and security, making it vital for Turkey to be governed democratically and to uphold the rule of law.

The outcome of the elections will decide how these issues will be addressed, and the re-election of President Erdogan and his AKP would further deteriorate the situation. On the other hand, if the opposition coalition wins, they plan to undo Mr. Erdogan's autocratic presidential system of government, shift back to a rational economic policy, release jailed opposition figures and journalists, and, most importantly, restore democratic institutions and practices.

Can you explain the political landscape in Turkey and the major political parties contesting the upcoming elections?


There are two distinct races in Turkey's upcoming elections — one for the presidency and the other for parliament. In the presidential election, four candidates are vying for the position, with Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition party Republican People's Party (CHP), being the strongest contender against President Erdogan. Muharrem Ince, the CHP's 2018 presidential candidate, is also running again. His few percentage points serve no one other than Erdogan in this closely contested race.

There are 26 parties and three election coalitions on the ballot for parliamentary elections. Erdogan's People's Alliance includes his Justice and Development Party (AKP), the ultra-nationalist MHP, and two Islamist fringe parties. The main opposition coalition, known as the Table of Six or Nation Alliance, includes the CHP, the ultra-nationalist Iyi Party, and three other small parties with significant political personalities. The Labor and Freedom Alliance of Turkey's Labor Party and pro-Kurdish Green Left Party support Kilicdaroglu in the presidential race. Polls indicate that Erdogan will be unseated by a small margin and the opposition will win at least a parliamentary majority, which unfortunately may be less than what is needed to make constitutional changes.

What are the key issues and challenges facing Turkey in the lead-up to the upcoming elections, and how are the major political parties addressing these concerns in their campaigns?


Election security is the key issue. Turkey has been grappling with significant election security concerns in recent years. There have been allegations of voter fraud and irregularities in past elections. The independence of the High Electoral Board and the fairness of the electoral process are also of major concern. We have seen how the Board repeated the 2019 Istanbul elections when the ruling party candidate lost it.

In addition, there have been incidents of violence and intimidation at polling stations, which have led to questions about the safety of voters and the integrity of the electoral process. During the current election period, the government has made every effort to delegitimize the contender parties by accusing them of collaborating with terrorist groups. But the attack on the opposition is not just in words. Over the weekend, we saw a violent mob attack one of the opposition leaders, the Istanbul mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, and his audience during a rally in the eastern city of Erzurum. Unfortunately, the police neither intervened to stop the mob nor arrested anyone afterward. Imamoglu responded well, calling his supporters to calm down and retreat and ending the rally prematurely. However, I worry that these violent attacks will ramp up in these last days before the election.

Finally, the upcoming elections are closely watched with concerns about potential interference and attempts to manipulate the results. It is a big question for me and many others if the opposition parties have adequate means and preparations to deter these manipulations. We will soon know the answer.

What critical issues and concerns are shaping the campaign discourse in Turkey, and how might they resonate with American voters?


The condition of the Turkish economy, growing inflation, joblessness, corruption and plundering of Turkey’s resources, and the decline of democratic institutions, freedom, and human rights are prominent problems that the opposition campaign addresses. The government alliance holds a negative campaign accusing the opposition of collaborating with terrorist organizations and portraying it as inept in solving Turkey’s economic problems. The discourse of associating the opposition with terrorism reached a new level last week when the Ministry of Interior declared that if Erdogan loses, they will consider the elections as a coup against the government. This issue would strike a particular chord with American voters.

More importantly, Turkey is the largest country by land area and population in Europe, with an important sphere of influence in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Turkey’s economy, despite its problems, is among the twenty largest economies in the world. Turkey has the second-largest military force in NATO and plays a pivotal role in regional security, as evident in the wars in Ukraine and Syria. If the US government worries about global democracy and security, it will be better off having Turkey governed not by a single man but with democracy and strong institutions, and that is what the opposition promises.

Ayça Alemdaroğlu

Ayça Alemdaroğlu

Research Scholar and Associate Director of CDDRL's Program on Turkey.
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In this Q&A, Ayça Alemdaroğlu, Associate Director of the Program on Turkey at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, discusses the key issues and their implications for the country's future.

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2023 Nobel Prize Summit

 

You’re invited to participate in a citizen deliberation at the 2023 Nobel Prize Summit


The 2023 Nobel Prize Summit on Truth, Trust, and Hope has the goal of initiating new efforts to build a world where thoughtful deliberation built on trustworthy information can thrive, buffering our societies against the damages due to misinformation and disinformation. One key challenge of this work is to establish a shared sense of legitimacy for policies to manage the information landscape that are enacted either by the private or public sectors. As citizens, we need to be able to trust that such policies are not primarily tools for building political power or private profits. 

At this Nobel Prize Summit, we invite you to explore with us one possible participatory-democracy-based solution to this problem, representative citizen deliberation. We will run an exercise in large-scale group deliberation to help develop the capacity to democratically vet policy proposals concerning the information landscape — and all summit participants are welcome to join in. Although this will not be the statistically representative group required for the eventual legitimacy of such oversight activities, we will learn together about how to shape such deliberations for our larger societies – and also learn some of the issues around current proposed policies regarding online media platforms. 

For this activity, the 2023 Nobel Prize Summit, organized by the Nobel Foundation and the National Academy of Sciences, is working with the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University, a program with decades of experience in statistically representative citizen deliberations, having conducted more than 120 deliberations in 50 countries and jurisdictions on every (inhabited) continent. Their approach, called “Deliberative Polling,” has in recent years been made available in an online format, the AI-assisted Stanford Online Deliberation Platform, a collaborative product of the Deliberative Democracy Lab and the Crowdsourced Democracy Team at Stanford University. 

Participants will complete a confidential pre-deliberation survey, join the deliberations virtually in small groups of about 10 people, join a plenary session virtually with experts and policymakers, and complete a post-deliberation survey.  The pre- and post-deliberation surveys are about 15 minutes each, the small group deliberations and plenary sessions are about one hour and  fifteen minutes each. (This is not a full scale Deliberative Poll that usually lasts for a full day or multiple days.) We can report that the overwhelming majority of those who participate in such Deliberative Polling events have found the experience both meaningful and enlightening.  

At the end of day two of the Nobel Prize Summit, the Deliberative Democracy Lab will showcase the results of the summit deliberation and discuss the field of deliberative democracy and the future of Deliberative Polling.  

There are multiple opportunities to join this exercise: 


Join us on 25 May, 12:00 - 4:00 pm Eastern Time (9:00 am - 1:00 pm Pacific). This session is built into the 2023 Nobel Prize Summit programming. You can join the deliberations virtually whether or not you are at the summit in person. 

Or join this deliberation exercise before the summit: 

  • Asia 20 May 13:00-16:00 Hong Kong time 
  • Africa 20 May 15:00-19:00 Lagos time 
  • Europe 21 May  13:00-16:00 London time 
  • Americas 21 May  10:00-13:00 San Francisco time 


Note: All sessions are conducted in English. 

Register here for this demonstration of Deliberative Polling. We look forward to seeing you!

For any questions about this event, please contact: asiu@stanford.edu.



About the Deliberative Democracy Lab, Stanford University  


The Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University is housed in the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at the Freeman Spogli Institute. DDL is devoted to research about democracy and public opinion obtained through Deliberative Polling®. Deliberative Polling is a registered trademark of James S Fishkin, and any fees generated are used to support Deliberative Democracy Lab. The method of Deliberative Polling has been used in over 50 countries and jurisdictions around the world through over 120 projects at varying levels of government and society. To learn more about the DDL, visit: deliberation.stanford.edu.  

About the Crowdsourced Democracy Team 


The Crowdsourced Democracy Team at Stanford University is led by Ashish Goel and is housed in Management Science and Engineering. The mission of CDT is to scale up collaboration and decision-making. To learn more about CDT, visit: https://voxpopuli.stanford.edu/

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The newly-founded Stanford Democracy Initiative, which brings together scholars and community stakeholders to examine Stanford’s role in the promotion of democratic norms nationally and globally, has compiled and released a list of courses, projects and activities at Stanford that the initiative claims advance democracy.

Read the full article in The Stanford Daily.

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Upon completing the inventory phase of its research, the effort released a list of the courses, research and engagement activities that it feels advance democracy. The next phase involves holding deliberations with the larger Stanford community.

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