Democracy
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Does deliberation produce any lasting effects? “America in One Room” was a national field experiment in which more than 500 randomly selected registered voters were brought from all over the country to deliberate on five major issues facing the country. A pre-post control group was also surveyed on the same questions after the weekend and about a year later. There were significant differences in voting intention and in actual voting behavior a year later among the deliberators compared to the control group. This article accounts for these differences by showing how deliberation stimulated a latent variable of political engagement. If deliberation has lasting effects on political engagement, then it provides a rationale for attempts to scale the deliberative process to much larger numbers. The article considers methods for doing so in the context of the broader debate about mini-publics, isolated spheres of deliberation situated within a largely non-deliberative society.

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American Political Science Review
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James S. Fishkin
Valentin Bolotnyy
Alice Siu
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In December 2023, the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) announced the launch of its newest research initiative, the Program on Identity, Democracy, and Justice (IDJ). Last month, IDJ hosted Harvard University professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, authors of How Democracies Die, for a series of launch events centered on questions explored in their newest book, Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point

The day’s programming included a seminar with graduate students and postdoctoral scholar associates of the program, a roundtable with undergraduate students, and the culminating event, titled "Multiracial Democracy and its Future in the United States” — a public lecture and moderated conversation with the authors about their newest book.

"Tyranny of the Minority" book displayed on a table
Copies of "Tyranny of the Minority" were available for sale at the event. | Nora Sulots

The event opened with remarks from Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of CDDRL, and was co-moderated by Stanford's Hakeem Jefferson, assistant professor of political science and IDJ’s faculty director, and UC Berkeley's Jake Grumbach. Following the conversation, the panel engaged the standing-room-only crowd through a lively audience Q&A.

In their talk, Levitsky and Ziblatt reiterated their argument that democratic erosion in the United States has been enabled by “democratic semi-loyalist” elites who prioritize their own career incentives or partisan gains over their duty to condemn anti-democratic behavior, such as instigating political violence or refusing to accept electoral defeats.

Grumbach and Jefferson invited the authors to discuss how their background as scholars of comparative politics – Levitsky and Ziblatt have studied Latin American and European politics, respectively – informed their analysis of American democracy. The authors commented on how remarkable they found the parallels between moments when democratic norms have come under question in other countries, like the February 6 insurrection in France or Peronist leader Cafiero’s key decision to join President Alfonsín on the balcony of the presidential palace to accept defeat and deter another coup in Argentina, and what we see in the U.S. today.

The conversation also addressed open debates on how concerned we should be about American democracy, and audience members brought up questions on how to think about generational differences, demographic change, and frustrated lawmaking. Jefferson called the launch event an “exciting, energizing convening of ideas” and shared how keen he is to continue these conversations through upcoming program events.

You can learn more about IDJ on the program’s website and watch a recording of the event below.

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View of the huge crowd from the Lincoln Memorial to the Washington Monument, during the March on Washington
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New Research Program Explores Intersection of Identity, Democracy, and Justice

Led by Professor Hakeem Jefferson, the program housed at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law will advance innovative research on the multifaceted dimensions of identity and their role in democratic development, struggles for recognition, social justice, and inclusion.
New Research Program Explores Intersection of Identity, Democracy, and Justice
Voting booth
Commentary

‘Democracy is on the ballot’: Professors react to midterm election results

As the results of the 2022 Midterm Elections are coming in, Stanford Professors Larry Diamond, Hakeem Jefferson, and Bruce Cain provided their insights on Tuesday night to The Daily.
‘Democracy is on the ballot’: Professors react to midterm election results
Hakeem Jefferson
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Welcoming Hakeem Jefferson to CDDRL

Jefferson, an assistant professor of political science at Stanford University, will join the center as a faculty affiliate.
Welcoming Hakeem Jefferson to CDDRL
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Hakeem Jefferson (L) and Jake Grumbach (R) moderate a panel with authors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt.
Hakeem Jefferson (L) and Jake Grumbach (R) moderate a panel with authors Steven Levitsky (center L) and Daniel Ziblatt (center R). | Nora Sulots
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The launch events hosted by CDDRL's new research initiative invited undergraduates, graduate associates, and members of the public to discuss the future of multiracial democracy.

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Most public opinion research in China uses direct questions to measure support for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and government policies. These direct question surveys routinely find that over 90 percent of Chinese citizens support the government. From this, scholars conclude that the CCP enjoys genuine legitimacy. In this paper, we present results from two survey experiments in contemporary China that make clear that citizens conceal their opposition to the CCP for fear of repression. When respondents are asked directly, we find, like other scholars, approval ratings for the CCP that exceed 90 percent. When respondents are asked in the form of list experiments, which confer a greater sense of anonymity, CCP support hovers between 50 percent and 70 percent. This represents an upper bound, however, since list experiments may not fully mitigate incentives for preference falsification. The list experiments also suggest that fear of government repression discourages some 40 percent of Chinese citizens from participating in anti-regime protests. Most broadly, this paper suggests that scholars should stop using direct question surveys to measure political opinions in China.

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The China Quarterly
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Erin Baggott Carter
Brett Carter
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CDDRL Visiting Scholar, 2024
bio_image_-_sophie_richardson.jpg

Sophie Richardson is a longtime activist and scholar of Chinese politics, human rights, and foreign policy.  From 2006 to 2023, she served as the China Director at Human Rights Watch, where she oversaw the organization’s research and advocacy. She has published extensively on human rights, and testified to the Canadian Parliament, European Parliament, and the United States Senate and House of Representatives. Dr. Richardson is the author of China, Cambodia, and the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence (Columbia University Press, Dec. 2009), an in-depth examination of China's foreign policy since 1954's Geneva Conference, including rare interviews with Chinese policy makers. She speaks Mandarin, and received her doctorate from the University of Virginia and her BA from Oberlin College. Her current research focuses on the global implications of democracies’ weak responses to increasingly repressive Chinese governments, and she is advising several China-focused human rights organizations. 

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Rachel Owens
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What does women’s representation look like under autocratic governments? In a recent research seminar series talk, CDDRL Visiting Scholar Mona Tajali, who is an Associate Professor of International Relations and Women’s, Gender and Sexuality Studies at Agnes Scott College, explored the complexities of this issue in the contexts of Iran and Turkey. 

Tajali’s talk underscored the gap between women’s political participation and representation. Voter turnout rates for women match those of men, and they are quite active in political organizations and in mobilizing for political causes. However, rarely do they reach the highest level of government. It is clear that structural factors, at times more than cultural or religious factors, are impeding women’s accession to senior government posts. 

Women in Iran and Turkey, from across different ideological currents, have long been demanding greater representation and calling for a level playing field. While there has been some progress in enhancing women’s representation, Tajali reminded us that nominal representation does not always lead to meaningful power or influence. Contradictory politics intervenes, with parties sometimes treating women as politically expedient tokens.

But, despite the impediment women face in formal politics, there are many examples of feminist movements making meaningful advancements. The Turkish movement KADER ran a campaign highlighting those parties who were truly responsive to women’s demands, not just those paying lip service. This was effective in putting pressure on mainstream parties to better represent the women in their electorate. In Iran, an online campaign was launched to change the male-dominated face of parliament. It identified misogynist candidates and incumbents with a poor record in their stances on women’s rights. 

However, the state has little tolerance for women critical actors seeking to challenge the status quo. The Council of Guardians in Iran and male party leadership in Turkey have disqualified and prevented many women from running for office. There has been an uptick in the harassment and intimidation of outspoken women in the parliament, not to mention the crackdown on feminist groups. This backlash has undermined collaboration among women activists who do hold political office.

As the confidence in electoral politics wanes, an important shift is happening with a demand for bottom-up political change. Groups are coming together to discuss their grievances despite the authoritarian contexts in which they are operating. The feminist movements are becoming bolder, clearer, and less censored in their demands. From journalists to students, women are engaging in courageous acts of defiance, many of which carry very real consequences.

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Anat Admati
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How Banking Undermines Democracy

In a recent CDDRL research seminar, Anat Admati shared findings from her research on how banking practices can undermine democracy, which are highlighted in the new and expanded edition of her book, "The Bankers’ New Clothes: What is Wrong with Banking and What to Do About It" (Princeton University Press, 2024).
How Banking Undermines Democracy
Jennifer Brick Mutrazashvili presents during CDDRL's Research Seminar on December 7, 2023.
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The Failure of State Building in Afghanistan

Jennifer Brick Mutrazashvili argues that this failure lies in the bureaucratic legacies the country inherited from the Soviet era.
The Failure of State Building in Afghanistan
Daniel Tresisman
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The Global Democratic Decline Revisited

Political scientist Daniel Treisman argues that claims of a global democratic decline and authoritarian backsliding are exaggerated and lack empirical evidence.
The Global Democratic Decline Revisited
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Mona Tajali presents at CDDRL seminar
Mona Tajali presents at a CDDRL research seminar on January 18, 2024. | Rachel Cody Owens
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CDDRL Visiting Scholar Mona Tajali explores the complexities of women’s representation under autocratic governments, using the contexts of Iran and Turkey.

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Flyer for the seminar "Resistance, Diplomacy, Democracy, and the Future of Myanmar" with a portrait of speaker H.E. Daw Zin Mar Aung, Union Minister of Foreign Affairs​, Minister of Foreign Affairs for the National Unity Government of Myanmar.

Co-sponsors:
Southeast Asia Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) and the
Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL)
in the
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI)
Stanford University

Discussants:
Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow of Global Democracy, FSI
Scot Marciel, Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow, APARC 

Chair: Donald K. Emmerson, Director, Southeast Asia Program, APARC

Optimism marked the New Year’s Day statement released on 1 January 2024 by Myanmar’s opposition-in-exile — the National Unity Government (NUG) and the advisory National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC). The “daily expansion” of territory controlled by inter-ethnic “revolutionary forces” and the “steady shrinking of military-controlled areas” were attributed to the “key success” of the Burmese people’s “defensive war.” Reportedly, as of December 2023, the junta’s forces may have ceded more than 180 outposts and strongpoints in the country to trans-ethnic rebel militias bent on overthrowing the regime. Meanwhile, NUG is working internationally to gain recognition and support while trying to persuade the junta’s foreign backers to desist. Leading those and related efforts is NUG’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Daw Zin Mar Aung. In this webinar, she will address the challenges met, the progress achieved, and the chances of undercutting and overthrowing Myanmar’s brutal dictatorship for the benefit of the country’s long-suffering people.

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Daw Zin Mar Aung

Daw Zin Mar Aung, in addition to her service as NUG’s foreign minister, is a member of the committee that represents Myanmar’s elected parliament as it was before its dispersal by the military junta that seized power on 1 February 2021. In democratic contests prior to the termination of democracy, she was twice elected to parliament. Honors she has received include nomination by the World Economic Forum as a World Global Leader (2014) and selection as a CDDRL Draper Hills Summer Fellow at Stanford (2013). She received an International Women of Courage Award from the US State Department in 2012 after having spent eleven years in Burmese prisons for her activism on behalf of democracy and human rights. She is also a co-founder of the Yangon School of Political Science.

Donald K. Emmerson
Donald. K. Emmerson

Online via Zoom Webinar

Daw Zin Mar Aung, Union Minister of Foreign Affairs, National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG)
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In April 2023, New America, the Center for Ballot Freedom, Protect Democracy, Lyceum Labs, and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law convened a conference at Stanford University on the future of political parties in the United States. The conference, titled “More Parties, Better Parties,” focused on the idea that U.S. democracy would benefit from stronger and more representative parties and that essential to that vision was opportunity for more parties beyond the current party duopoly to emerge. The essays in this collection, derived from papers prepared for the conference, trace the following argument: Parties are essential institutions in a democracy; there is an unjustified hostility to parties in much American political discourse; and fluid and overlapping coalitions of a multiparty system can improve governance and confidence. We then look at the promise of fusion voting, a practice once widespread and now prohibited in most states, which could allow new parties to gain a foothold by cross-endorsing candidates from established parties.

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Essay within "The Realistic Promise of Multiparty Democracy in the United States," a political reform report from New America.

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New America
Authors
Didi Kuo
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Ten years of debates over democratic backsliding have failed to produce many examples of independent institutions thwarting authoritarian attempts on democracy. Yet Latin American courts seem to be countering this larger trend. The three largest countries in the region—Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia—have produced robust institutions able to check leaders with authoritarian tendencies, with high courts playing a fundamental role. In a dramatic succession of recent cases, courts in these three countries have been innovative, acted with a high degree of independence, and appear legitimately interested in defending democratic norms. All of this is profoundly surprising. There is little to no track record of independent Latin American judiciaries that stand in the way of authoritarian governments. Closer study of these three countries is therefore critical for scholars and practitioners, who are otherwise locked in debates over the importance of judicial review in preserving democracy. After dozens of judicial reform failures since the 1990s, we may be observing some overdue success. It appears that 1990s judicial reforms are making a comeback in Latin America.

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Journal of Democracy
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Diego A. Zambrano
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Number 1
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A decade has passed since General Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi assumed the Egyptian presidency. His reign has been marked by autocratic trial-and-error governance and the prioritization of personal desires and instincts over the needs of the Egyptian people. Sisi's focus on state-led infrastructure projects, such as the building of new cities and a new Suez Canal, initially stimulated economic growth but masked underlying economic weaknesses. His military-centered economic strategy expanded the military's role in the economy, leading to a precarious autocracy heavily reliant on coercion and external support. Sisi's economic policies, marked by heavy borrowing and austerity measures, have disproportionately impacted low- and middle-class citizens, leading to rising poverty and social discontent. Despite attempts at economic reform, Sisi's governance remains characterized by personalist rule, resistance to formal institutions, and a reliance on repression to suppress dissent, leaving Egypt in a precarious economic and political state.

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The Sisi Regime at 10

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Journal of Democracy
Authors
Hesham Sallam
Number
Number 1
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East-Central Europe is at odds with itself regarding the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why are "post-communist" democracies not standing together as one with a fledgling democracy that is under attack by a dictatorship? The answer lies in the material and political benefits that individual politicians and political parties receive from Russia. Two consequences follow from this dynamic: the validation of "Russian imperial claims" and reduced support for Ukraine. This analysis shows that the immediate interests and profits of domestic politicians matter far more than the long shadows of history, leading to a complex tapestry of responses in the region. The diversity of these countries' approaches to Ukraine is just one reason why East-Central Europe is now more remarkable for its divisions and contrasts than a collective past or a common future.

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Journal of Democracy
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Anna Grzymała-Busse
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Number 1
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