Introduction and Contribution

Nearly half of the world (46%) lives in authoritarian regimes that hold regular elections — compared to 28% who live in autocracies without elections and 26% who live under democracy. In these “electoral autocracies,” the ruling party can theoretically lose power, but its ability to repress and co-opt its opponents makes defeat unlikely. Incumbent executives and parties in electoral autocracies have become increasingly sophisticated in their repressive techniques and increasingly connected to other regimes that share similar fears of democracy. “How can electoral authoritarianism be resisted?” is thus a pressing question for domestic opposition parties and civil society organizations (CSOs) as well as international actors seeking to promote democracy, including governments, nonprofits, think tanks, and academics. 

In “Opposition strategies and electoral challenges under autocracy,” Oren Samet analyzes five strategies opposition parties use to fight electoral authoritarianism during campaigns, on election day, and after polls have closed. These are: joining multiparty coalitions, strengthening their party organization, mobilizing mass protests, boycotting elections, and seeking international assistance. Samet shows that each strategy entails tradeoffs, increasing opposition competitiveness while making authoritarian repression more likely or efficient. For example, joining a multiparty coalition can both increase the incumbent’s likelihood of defeat and increase his propensity to repress — insofar as he perceives the opposition as popular and threatening.

Samet offers several prescriptions for international democracy promoters. First, they must collaborate with domestic opposition parties, because only they — and not CSOs — can win elections. Yet many international actors avoid this approach; for instance, some opposition parties may care more about power than democracy, or collaborating with them may invite criticism that democracy promotion is partisan. While these risks cannot be ignored, neither can political parties.

A second prescription follows from the fact that oppositions have at least five tools at their disposal: there can be no single “best practice” in democracy promotion; it requires flexibility, adaptability, and an integrated approach. Finally, because autocrats continue to become more sophisticated, democracy promoters must take steps to prepare for the repression of their partners. 

Five Approaches and Their Pitfalls

Otherwise effective strategies for winning democratic elections — such as running savvy campaigns on primetime television that are informed by public opinion polling — will not work for opposition parties under electoral autocracy. This is because the system is structurally biased toward incumbents. As such, one common approach has been for individual opposition parties to join together in a coalition: sharing policy platforms, endorsing joint candidates, and merging their party organizations. And indeed, multiparty coalitions are statistically associated with higher vote shares and a higher likelihood that autocrats are defeated. At the same time, however, such coalitions are difficult to form and sustain due to ideological differences and polarization. In especially repressive electoral autocracies, such as Ethiopia or Cambodia, incumbent parties are often able to neutralize or eliminate coalitions. Finally, when coalitions pose a serious challenge on election day but without winning, autocrats may repress even harder.

A second strategy involves strengthening party organization, for example, by improving its geographic reach or recruiting more professional candidates. These efforts can increase competitiveness and popular appeal, but they risk providing the incumbent with a large amount of information that he can use to more efficiently target his opponents. This includes formal lists of members, candidates, and party branch locations. Meanwhile, more organized opposition parties may inadvertently legitimize the system by affording it some semblance of democracy.

Encouraging mass protests is a third strategy available to opposition parties. As the number of protesters grows, authoritarian repression becomes more costly and more likely to backfire, while the incumbent’s allies become more likely to defect and join the opposition. Parties help with this process by translating protester demands into coherent party platforms. However, and especially after the 2010-12 Arab Uprisings, electoral authoritarian regimes have become highly sensitive to and ready to combat protests. This may be accomplished via surveillance or assistance from powerful third parties such as China or Russia.

A fourth, common strategy has been for parties to boycott the autocrat’s electoral facade. Doing so signals to the international community that the playing field is skewed and the system illegitimate. Yet boycotts can lead to missed opportunities for the opposition to build electoral strength, influence policy change as legislative minorities, or monitor the autocrat from inside government. In addition, they rob oppositions of the chance to take advantage of the autocrat’s miscalculations, which may even lead to his defeat. 

Finally, opposition parties can reach out to international actors for support. This may involve requesting that they sanction the regime or intervene in the name of democracy. International pressure can indeed encourage political openings and is especially useful for oppositions with low visibility. However, autocrats are adept at demonizing those who use this strategy as agents of malign foreign influence. These appeals can strengthen the autocrat’s domestic support base among those who see him as protecting the nation. In all, these tradeoffs suggest that effective democracy promotion requires a deep understanding of the political context in which oppositions operate.

*Brief prepared by Adam Fefer.

The Firestone Medal for Excellence in Undergraduate Research recognizes Stanford's top 10% of honors theses in the social sciences, science, and engineering among graduating seniors. Marco’s thesis is entitled, “When Democracy Counts: Testing the Demand-Side Micrologics of Backsliding with Evidence from Indonesia.” It poses the question, do Indonesian citizens fail to punish democratic backsliding at the ballot box? Over more than a decade of democratic decline, Indonesian voters have shown remarkably little alarm, continuing to reward leaders associated with democratic erosion while professing support for democracy. This thesis investigates the demand-side foundations of that puzzle, probing whether the content of democracy might itself be the problem. To pinpoint precisely where and how the accountability chain breaks down, Marco fielded an original nationally-representative survey experiment in February 2026 with Indikator Politik Indonesia (N = 1,566), randomly assigning Indonesian respondents to one of three definitions of democracy — electoral, liberal, or substantive — and tracking their responses across four hypothetical scenarios. To measure treatment comprehension and experimental manipulation, he scored open-ended responses using a novel multi-model LLM coding ensemble. Combined, this empirical design enabled him to discriminate between two candidate diagnoses of conceptual failure: that Indonesian citizens hold conceptions of democracy that simply diverge from those of scholars (the divergent conceptions argument), or that “democracy” itself carries too little evaluative content to differentiate governance failures of different kinds (the thinness argument). Ultimately, the evidence points overwhelmingly in support of the latter interpretation — that for many Indonesian citizens, “democracy” functions less as a thick descriptive concept than as a thin term of approval whose application tracks perceived governance quality. The divergent conceptions hypothesis, meanwhile, yields a robust null across thirteen specifications. In this era of backsliding, the conceptual thinning of “democracy” carries severe implications for the validity of cross-comparative survey research, for the elite strategies that exploit the term’s elasticity, and for the resilience of democracy in Indonesia and beyond.

Shayla’s thesis is entitled “Bound by the Ballot? Autocratic Compliance After Electoral Defeat.” When autocrats lose elections, what determines whether they comply with the electorate's judgment? And if they resist, what determines whether they succeed? Despite the frequency and consequences of autocratic electoral crises, electoral compliance decisions remain undertheorized. To address this gap, Shayla proposes a two-stage theory of incumbent compliance. At Stage 1, pre-election structural conditions — military control, elite unity, and international vulnerability — determine whether resistance is viable. At Stage 2, activated only if resistance occurs, two reactive forces — mass mobilization and activated international pressure — become salient. Drawing on an original dataset of elections held in autocratic regimes between 1970 and 2018, the results partially support and partially challenge this theory. While structural weakness reliably precludes resistance, structural strength does not reliably cause it; among cases where resistance occurs, high, cohesive international pressure emerges as the most consistent determinant of whether incumbents ultimately exit. This thesis posits that compliance is best understood as a process shaped by forces operating at different moments, and that this temporal distinction has both implications for how scholars and international actors understand and respond to electoral crises in electoral autocracies.

Honoring a Legacy of Community Building

Zoe Savellos, a Stanford graduate and member of CDDRL’s Fisher Family Honors Class of 2018, passed away in 2025 at the age of 29. She is remembered by those who knew her as brilliant, generous, and deeply committed to others. To honor her memory and the spirit she brought to the CDDRL community, the center has established the Zoe Savellos Memorial Award for Community Building.

“Zoe’s palpable passion for her thesis research and to make a genuine difference in the world inspired a sense of optimism and confidence in our CDDRL cohort to dream bigger and push through when we didn’t think we could,” shared her friend and classmate Kelsey Page ‘18. “As I struggled toward the thesis deadline, Zoe not only helped me with last-minute formatting questions long after she had completed her own thesis, but also brought me a blazer for my presentation when I forgot one. Zoe enthusiastically counting down the minutes to the completion of my thesis so we could celebrate together is just one example of how she placed shared joy over individual accomplishment — she was everyone's biggest cheerleader.”

Presented annually within CDDRL’s Fisher Family Honors Program, the award will recognize a student selected by their peers for their meaningful contributions to the strength of the honors cohort. The class of 2026 has selected Zoya Fasihuddin, an Economics major also studying Human Rights, as the first recipient of this award.

“I'm so honored, and this is entirely a reflection of the cohort we all got to be a part of, as well as Steve and María’s leadership,” shared Zoya. “While I didn't have the privilege of knowing Zoe, everything that’s been shared about her in terms of her warmth and empathy is exactly the kind of person I aspire to be.”

The cohort experience is central to the Honors Program. Students engage deeply with one another’s work and navigate the challenges of independent research together. The Zoe Savellos Memorial Award for Community Building recognizes the important role students play in shaping that experience and honors the individual whose support, enthusiasm, and community-building spirit help create a more connected and meaningful collective experience.

The Class of 2026

Marco, Shayla, and Zoya are part of a cohort of 12 graduating CDDRL honors students who have spent the past year working in consultation with CDDRL-affiliated faculty members and attending honors research workshops to develop their thesis projects. The theses this year covered topics as wide-ranging as democratic resilience and authoritarian elections, feminist mobilization in Pakistan, Indigenous reunification and identity in Oklahoma, net neutrality and regulatory politics, economic protectionism, collective memory in Spain, and the role of retired military leaders in American elections.

"We could not be prouder of this cohort of seniors in the Fisher Family Honors Program and the theses they produced," shared María Ignacia Curiel, a Research Scholar at CDDRL who co-teaches the Honors Program alongside Stephen Stedman. "Born from a year of scholarly perseverance and camaraderie, these projects genuinely advance our understanding of democracy, development, and the rule of law around the world."

In addition to the Firestone Medal, CDDRL Outstanding Thesis Award, and the Zoe Savellos Memorial Award for Community Building, members of the Class of 2026 have received several other honors heading into graduation:

• Anagali Duncan received the 2026 Lloyd W. Dinkelspiel Award, which recognizes distinctive contributions to undergraduate education and the quality of student life.
• Emma Wang and Marco Widodo are among the newest members elected to the Phi Beta Kappa academic honors society.
• Anagali Duncan, Dani Gonzalez-Gaubecka, Emma Wang, Lila Batcheller, Lorraine Cioffi, and Rachel Owens have all received the Award of Excellence. Designed to recognize the top 10% of the class, this award honors graduating seniors who have demonstrated a sincere commitment to the university through involvement, leadership, and extraordinary Stanford spirit.
   

CDDRL's Fisher Family Honors Program trains students from any academic department at Stanford to write a policy-relevant research thesis with global impact on a subject related to democracy, development, and the rule of law. Honors students participate in research methods workshops, attend Honors College in Washington, D.C., connect to the CDDRL research community, and write their thesis in close consultation with a faculty advisor to graduate with a certificate of honors in democracy, development, and the rule of law.
 

Explore the rest of the thesis topics of the Fisher Family Honors Program Class of 2026 below:

At the institute level, the partnership also reinforces Stanford’s broader role in advancing research and engagement on democracy.

“As the threats to democratic governance around the world multiply, so too must our commitment to the rigorous, interdisciplinary scholarship that seeks to understand and address them,” said Colin Kahl, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “Bringing the esteemed Journal of Democracy to CDDRL creates a powerful nexus for this vital work, strengthening FSI's role as a global leader in the study of democracy."

At the same time, the partnership comes at a moment of heightened global pressure on democratic institutions, underscoring the importance of the Journal’s role in the field.

“We are now in the twentieth consecutive year of global democratic decline — no longer just a ‘democratic recession,’ but a broader wave of authoritarian reversals,” said Larry Diamond. “Yet the struggle for democracy continues. Now more than ever, we need to understand both the causes of democratic decay and the conditions for recovery and renewal. The Journal of Democracy is unique in combining rigorous scholarship with timely, accessible analysis of developments around the world.”

For Stanford students, the partnership creates a more direct pathway into the world of ideas, publishing, and public scholarship. Through new editorial internships, undergraduates and recent graduate alumni can gain hands-on experience working with a leading journal that bridges scholarship and practice.

It also strengthens Stanford’s intellectual presence in democracy studies by giving CDDRL-affiliated faculty a more formal role in supporting the Journal’s work through serving on its editorial board. Stanford faculty will contribute to the Journal’s editorial mission, inspire new lines of inquiry, and help to identify emerging areas of research to be explored in its pages.

“This partnership with CDDRL is exceptionally exciting for the Journal of Democracy and its readers,” shared Will Dobson, the Journal’s co-editor. “CDDRL is not only the leading research center in the field, but its long history of collaboration with the Journal makes this a natural fit. We are thrilled to be working with CDDRL and with the possibilities this partnership will unlock.”

With a wide readership and growing digital footprint, the Journal of Democracy reaches audiences across academia, government, journalism, and civil society. It publishes roughly 100 online-exclusive essays each year alongside its quarterly print issues and engages readers through newsletters with more than 20,000 subscribers, across social media, in Apple News, and on leading podcasts. As the most-read journal in the Johns Hopkins University Press portfolio of more than 750 publications, it has become a central venue for ideas about democratic governance and political change worldwide. Through its partnership with CDDRL, the Journal is positioned to expand that reach even further — drawing on Stanford’s research community and global practitioner networks to bring new voices and perspectives into the conversation.