When did Russia lose its chance of freedom? 1990: As a new openness sweeps Russia, a talented young physicist, Boris Nemtsov, begins his career in politics. Charismatic, confident, liberal and vehemently opposed to corruption, he swiftly rises to prominence. For the first time, another future seems possible. 2015: Putin holds the country in the grip of tyranny once more. Nemtsov, now his fiercest and most unrelenting opponent, is assassinated on a Moscow bridge. This is the story of how a nation's dreams of democracy died. Drawing on buried archives and off-the-record interviews, exiled journalist Mikhail Fishman gives a gripping insider account of the tragedy of modern Russia, told through many lives of Boris Nemtsov — activist, playboy, leader-in-waiting, dissident and, finally, victim. From the economic reforms under Boris Yeltsin to Vladimir Putin's oligarchy, through two wars in Chechnya and the invasion of Ukraine, this is the story of a man fired by the belief that Russia could, still, have another future.

How does the local presence of an authoritarian power shape citizens' commitment to democracy? Existing theories suggest engagement with authoritarian states should weaken democratic commitment through norm diffusion, accommodation, or authoritarian learning. This paper challenges that expectation by examining Chinese development finance in Latin America. Using geocoded data, it estimates the subnational effect of exposure to Chinese aid on democratic attitudes. Exposure increases support for democracy rather than undermining it. The effect is strongest in authoritarian and weakly democratic settings and absent in consolidated democracies. Exposure does not improve perceptions of China or the United States, casting doubt on soft power or foreign-comparison explanations. Instead, the paper argues that visible Chinese projects make incumbents' authoritarian character more salient, triggering an accountability response. These findings recast authoritarian external influence as a contingent catalyst for democratic reinforcement.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Marcela Ibáñez is a Visiting Postdoctoral Fellow at CDDRL and a Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Zurich. Her work lies at the intersection of political economy and development studies. Her current research examines how development finance from authoritarian donors shapes political attitudes in recipient countries. Her broader interests include authoritarian politics, inequality and opportunity in low- and middle-income economies, democracy after conflict, and strategic communication. Methodologically, she draws on causal inference and econometrics, using experimental and quasi-experimental designs, geospatial and survey data, and quantitative text analysis. She holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of Mannheim.

Under what conditions do pro-democracy global actors support domestic opposition actors resisting democratic backsliding, and when does such support shape public opinion? This book project develops a theory of international rhetorical pressure that examines both the supply and demand of foreign engagement in backsliding contexts. On the supply side, it argues that international actors' public attention to democratic developments abroad is shaped by both domestic political developments and geopolitical ties. On the demand side, it suggests that foreign statements can shape public opinion toward pro-democracy movements. Drawing on an original dataset of US Secretary of State speeches, survey experiments, and elite interviews, the project shows that geopolitical interests often shape when international actors publicly address democracy abroad, but that when they do, foreign messages can meaningfully shape public opinion. The project highlights the increasingly international nature of backsliding and both the opportunities and challenges international engagement creates for domestic opposition actors.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Benjamin Yoel is the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program Postdoctoral Fellow at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). Benjamin studies democratic backsliding, nonviolent resistance, authoritarian politics, and the role of international factors in the context of regime change. He is particularly interested in understanding when and how international actors can help or hurt domestic opposition movements defend democracy. His book project examines the supply and demand-side of international rhetorical pressure in the context of democratic backsliding and opposition to it. Benjamin's other work examines mass public support for democratic backsliding, public willingness to support retaliatory measures by democratic governments against former backsliding leaders, and the broader challenges facing pro-democracy actors in an increasingly illiberal international system. His research has been published in Nature, the International Journal of Public Opinion Research, and American Politics Research. He received his PhD in Political Science from Michigan State University and BA and MA degrees from Reichman University.

As Russia’s war against Ukraine grinds on and debate intensifies over how to end it, what could push the conflict into a more dangerous phase of escalation? This talk examines how the Putin regime’s domestic political imperatives shape when Moscow absorbs setbacks and when it escalates. It argues that Russian behavior reflects a “pressure-cooker” dynamic: external geopolitical constraints favor restraint, while battlefield failures, war weariness, and pressure from hardliners can gradually raise the domestic costs of inaction. The result is prolonged restraint punctuated by abrupt escalation across conventional, gray-zone, and nuclear domains. Counterintuitively, the greatest danger may arise before a domestic crisis fully materializes — when wartime exhaustion or the political and economic strains of a ceasefire loom, but the Putin regime still retains the capacity to act coherently. This argument has direct implications for Western efforts to manage escalation and negotiate an end to the war without inadvertently increasing Moscow’s incentives for risk-taking.

Aleksandar Matovski is an Associate Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. His research focuses on the impact of domestic politics on the durability and strategic behavior of authoritarian regimes, with a regional emphasis on Europe and the former Soviet Union. Matovski holds a PhD and MA in Government from Cornell University, an MA in War Studies from King’s College London, and a BA in Law from Saints Cyril and Methodius University, Skopje. Prior to his academic career, he was National Security Advisor in the Government of North Macedonia and Political and Military Advisor in the North Macedonian Ministry of Defense. 

The war in Ukraine is in its 5th year, and casualties continue to mount. How did we get here? And how does this war end? This presentation and discussion will cover the latest military developments, as well as a review of the economic and political factors that will determine how strong Ukraine, Russia, and Europe will be going into negotiations.

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Alexandra Vacroux is Vice President for Strategic Engagement at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE). Her scholarly work has focused on Russia, and heavily on the war against Ukraine. Before moving to Ukraine in 2024, she served as Executive Director at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. Alexandra holds a Ph.D. in government from Harvard University. Her dissertation considered informal institutions and corruption in Russia’s pharmaceutical markets and emerged from her experience living in Moscow from 1992 to 2004.

Yevhenii Malik is a former Marine Infantry sergeant in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a veteran of the Ukraine War. He has extensive frontline experience, including in the 2022 battle for Mariupol. From April 2022 to September 2024, he endured captivity in Russia. Malik is an advocate for Ukraine’s armed forces and veterans and is responsible for undergraduate national security and defense programs at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).