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Ali Çarkoğlu, a political scientist specializing in elections, voting behavior, and Turkish politics, presented an analysis of Turkey's electoral dynamics from 1990 to 2023 at a CDDRL research seminar. His study focused on the interplay between social cleavages, democratic backsliding, and their impact on political competition and voter behavior. Using data from the World Values Survey and Turkish Election Studies, Çarkoğlu explored the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the enduring influence of cultural divides on Turkey’s political landscape.

Central to his analysis was the "alla Turca kulturkampf," a concept describing the deep-rooted center-periphery divide in Turkish politics. This cleavage reflects a cultural conflict between two contrasting societal visions: the Kemalist ideal of secularism, gender equality, and scientific rationalism versus the pro-Islamist focus on tradition, religion, and family values. Despite the AKP’s success in bringing peripheral groups into the state’s institutional core, these cultural divides persist as a primary source of polarization. Çarkoğlu argued that this polarization has entrenched partisan loyalty and overshadowed other factors in shaping voter behavior.

A key theme of the presentation was Turkey's democratic backsliding, characterized by the erosion of democratic institutions, curtailment of civil liberties, and electoral manipulation. Çarkoğlu noted that Turkey ranks 148th on the liberal democracy index, illustrating its significant democratic decline. He linked these trends to heightened polarization, which weakens opposition forces and reduces the influence of traditional electoral cleavages. Instead of fostering competitive elections, the political landscape is increasingly dominated by entrenched party loyalties and identity-driven politics.

The presentation also highlighted the significant social and economic changes Turkey has undergone since 1990. Urbanization surged from 61% in 1992 to 78% in 2024, while agriculture’s share of employment dropped from 45% to 17%. Economic growth has raised per capita income from $2,000 to $10,000, but inequality remains pervasive, and safety nets are inadequate. Women’s labor force participation remains low at 35%, and educational disparities persist. Household sizes have decreased, and the dependency ratio has dropped from 65 to 47 over 30 years. However, these societal shifts have had limited political consequences, as electoral dynamics remain anchored in longstanding cultural cleavages.

Çarkoğlu’s findings indicated that Turkey’s party system has remained "frozen" for the past three decades. While socio-demographic factors play a declining role in explaining voter behavior, attitudinal variables such as group identity and cultural values have gained prominence. This shift reflects how polarization has solidified, with partisan loyalty reinforcing competitive authoritarianism.

Çarkoğlu emphasized that the weakening of electoral cleavages has facilitated democratic backsliding by reducing opposition effectiveness and enabling strategic manipulation. Despite rapid social change, entrenched cultural divides and polarization have prevented political transformation. His research underscores the importance of addressing institutional decline, polarization, and social inequality to combat democratic erosion. Turkey’s experience offers critical lessons for other unconsolidated democracies facing similar challenges.

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Yoshiko Herrera presented her research in a REDS Seminar co-hosted by CDDRL and TEC on January 16, 2025.
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Identities and War: Lessons from Russia’s War on Ukraine

Political Science scholar Yoshiko Herrera examines how identity shapes the causes, conduct, and consequences of war, especially in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Identities and War: Lessons from Russia’s War on Ukraine
Alberto Díaz-Cayeros presents his research in a CDDRL seminar.
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Colonialism, Epidemics, and Resilience: Rethinking Demographic Collapse in Tepetlaoztoc

FSI Senior Fellow Alberto Díaz-Cayeros explores how demographic collapse, epidemic disease, and colonial rent extraction were interconnected in Tepetlaoztoc, a city-state in the Acolhua Kingdom of the Aztec Empire.
Colonialism, Epidemics, and Resilience: Rethinking Demographic Collapse in Tepetlaoztoc
Alex Mierke-Zatwarnicki
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Understanding Identity Politics: Strategies for Party Formation and Growth

CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow Alex Mierke-Zatwarnicki explores how identity politics — strategies of political mobilization based on group identity — shape the development of new political parties, particularly those trying to establish themselves in a competitive environment.
Understanding Identity Politics: Strategies for Party Formation and Growth
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Using data from the World Values Survey and Turkish Election Studies, CDDRL Visiting Scholar Ali Çarkoğlu explores the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the enduring influence of cultural divides on Turkey’s political landscape.

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Gizem Zencirci

Since coming to power, Turkey’s governing party, the AKP has made poverty relief a central part of their political program. In addition to neoliberal reforms, AKP’s program has involved an emphasis on Islamic charity that is unprecedented in the history of the Turkish Republic. To understand the causes and consequences of this phenomenon, Gizem Zencirci introduces the concept of the Muslim Social, defined as a welfare regime that reimagined and reconfigured Islamic charitable practices to address the complex needs of a modern market society.

Through an in-depth ethnography of social service provision, in The Muslim Social: Neoliberalism, Charity, and Poverty in Turkey (Syracuse University Press, 2024), Zencirci demonstrates the blending of religious values and neoliberal elements in dynamic, flexible, and unexpected ways. Although these governmental assemblages of Islamic neoliberalism produced new forms of generosity, distinctive notions of poverty, and novel ways of relating to others in society, Zencirci’s analysis reveals how this welfare regime privileged managerial efficiency and emotional well-being at the expense of other objectives such as equality, development, or justice. The book provides a lens onto the everyday life of Islamic neoliberalism, while also mapping the kind of political concerns that animate poverty governance in our capitalist present.

Book talk co-sponsored the by Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, CDDRL's Program on Turkey, and the Middle Eastern Studies Forum.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Gizem Zencirci, PhD studies the cultural politics of neoliberalism in Turkey. Zencirci is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Providence College. Her research interests include Islamic neoliberalism, civilizationism, heritage studies, and cultural economy. Her work has been published in journals such as the International Journal of Middle East Studies, Journal of the American Academy of Religion, and the Journal of Cultural Economy.

In-person: Philippines Conference Room (Encina Hall, 3rd floor, 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)
Online: Via Zoom

Gizem Zencirci
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CDDRL Visiting Scholar, 2024-25
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I am a political scientist specializing in elections, voting behavior, public opinion, and Turkish politics. I have led and participated in major cross-national and national projects such as the Turkish Election Study (TES), Turkish Giving Behaviour Study, International Social Survey Program (ISSP), and Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). I took part in the planning committees for Modules 5 and 6 in CSES and ISSP modules on family and changing gender roles (2012, 2022), religion (2018), and social networks (2017). I am the founding PI in TES and developed the campaign media content data program, which documents daily campaign content for over ten national newspapers since 2002. My work can be accessed here.

My current research is an exploration of the secularization process in Turkey, a topic where the evidence has so far been mixed. Some scholars find the Turkish experience to possess reflections of secularization, as expected following classical modernization theory, while others present evidence that contradicts these expectations. The most recent contributions to this literature now focus on outliers where resistance to secularization exists, and one even finds a resurgence of religiosity in various dimensions of social life. I focus on Turkey, which can be considered an outlier. In the past, I have contributed to this literature through several projects and articles and touched upon the enduring influence of religion in political life.

My main argument in this project is that Turkish society's dual character, where a potentially secularizing group faces an increasingly resacralizing group, is responsible for the contrasting findings about secularization and creating the Turkish outlier. I follow historical and quantitative research, bringing together comprehensive data that focus on the country's critical areas of social development. I argue that underlying Turkish ideological and affective polarization is the dual character of Turkish society with opposing secularization trends.

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In this essay, Mona Tajali, PhD compares women's participation in recent elections in Turkey and Iran, finding that women decided whether or not to vote based on the strength of the democratic institutions in their respective countries.

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The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) is pleased to share that Ayça Alemdaroğlu, a research scholar and associate director of CDDRL’s Program on Turkey, has been appointed a Global Fellow at the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO).

PRIO is a world-leading peace research organization that conducts research on the conditions for peaceful relations between states, groups, and people, seeking to understand the processes that bring societies together or split them apart. Researchers explore how conflicts erupt and how they can be resolved, investigate how different kinds of violence affect people, and examine how societies tackle crises and the threat of crises. They document general trends, seek to understand processes, and inform concrete responses.

PRIO Global Fellows are academics with strong scholarly records and a commitment to the research agenda on peace and conflict. They all have their main positions elsewhere but work closely with PRIO researchers and regularly spend time in Oslo. Following nomination by PRIO staff, fellowships are awarded to scholars from all over the world, of different seniority levels,, and with diverse methodological and analytical perspectives.

Ayça specializes in social and political change in the Middle East, focusing on Turkey's domestic politics and international relations. Her research examines the interplay between authoritarianism, youth politics, and public policy. Her scholarship extends into various other domains, including nationalism, eugenics, urban segregation, and the impacts of neoliberalism on education. She is the co-editor of Kurds in Dark Times: New Perspectives on Violence and Resistance (University of Syracuse Press, 2023). Prior to her current role at Stanford, she was an Assistant Professor of Research in Sociology at Northwestern University and served as a postdoctoral fellow and lecturer at Stanford. She earned her Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge and actively contributes to academic discussions through her editorial roles.

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Challenges and Opportunities in Turkey's 2023 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections

In this Q&A, Ayça Alemdaroğlu, Associate Director of the Program on Turkey at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, discusses the key issues and their implications for the country's future.
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Turkish riot police block the main gate of Boğaziçi University during protests against President Erdogan’s appointment of a new rector. Istanbul, January 4, 2021.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan before their meeting on Sept. 3, 2016 in Hangzhou, China.
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PRIO conducts research on the conditions for peaceful relations between states, groups, and people.

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A critical review of Jenny White's Turkish Kaleidoscope, illustrated by Ergün Gündüz, and the historiography of political turmoil in the 1970s Turkey.

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Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2021, 113 Pp., $22.95 (Paperback), ISBN 9780691205199

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Turkish Studies
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Halit Serkan Simen
Ayça Alemdaroğlu
Jenny White
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Encina Commons, 123
615 Crothers Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Encina Hall, E108
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Ayça Alemdaroğlu is the Associate Director of the Program on Turkey and a Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University. She is also a Global Fellow at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). As a political sociologist, Ayça explores social and political inequalities and changes in Turkey and the Middle East.

Previously, she was an Assistant Professor of Sociology and the Associate Director of the Keyman Modern Turkish Studies Program at Northwestern University. 

She received her Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Cambridge, her MA in political science from Bilkent University, and her BSc. degrees in political science and sociology from the Middle East Technical University. 

She serves on the editorial committee of the Middle East Report. 

Associate Director, Program on Turkey
Ayça Alemdaroğlu
Yektan Turkyilmaz
Ali Yaycıoğlu
Panel Discussions
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Alexandra Hudson book talk

Author Alexandra Hudson, daughter of the "Manners Lady," was raised to respect others. But as she grew up, she discovered a difference between politeness―a superficial appearance of good manners―and true civility. In a timely new book, Hudson sheds light on how civility can help bridge our political divide. 

On May 14, the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law is pleased to host Hudson for a conversation about her latest book, The Soul of Civility: Timeless Principles to Heal Society and Ourselves (St. Martin's Press, 2023), with Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI).

ABOUT THE BOOK

From classical philosophers like Epictetus, to great twentieth-century thinkers like Martin Luther King Jr., to her own experience working in the federal government during one of the most politically fraught eras in our nation's history, Hudson examines how civility―a respect for the personhood and dignity of others―transcends political disagreements. Respecting someone means valuing them enough to tell them when you think they are wrong.

It’s easy to look at the divided state of the world and blame our leaders, the media, or our education system. Instead, we should focus on what we can control: ourselves. The Soul of Civility empowers readers to live tolerantly with others despite deep differences, and to rigorously protest wrongs and debate issues rather than silencing disagreements. A robust public discourse is essential to a truly civil society, and respecting others means telling hard truths. If enough of us decide to change ourselves, we might be able to change the world we live in, too.

Provocative, personal, and acutely relevant, The Soul of Civility is an essential book for our era.

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Alexandra Hudson

Alexandra Hudson

Author

Alexandra O. Hudson is a writer, popular speaker, and the founder of Civic Renaissance, a publication and intellectual community dedicated to beauty, goodness, and truth. She was named the 2020 Novak Journalism Fellow, and contributes to Fox News, CBS News, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, TIME Magazine, POLITICO Magazine, and Newsweek. She earned a master’s degree in public policy at the London School of Economics as a Rotary Scholar, and is an adjunct professor at the Indiana University Lilly School of Philanthropy. She is also the creator of a series for The Teaching Company called Storytelling and The Human Condition. Her first book, The Soul of Civility: Timeless Principles to Heal Society and Ourselves, was released by St. Martin’s Press in October 2023. She lives in Indianapolis, IN, with her husband and children.

 

Francis Fukuyama 2022

Francis Fukuyama

Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow, FSI

Francis Fukuyama is Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). He is also Director of Stanford's Masters in International Policy Program, and a professor (by courtesy) of Political Science.  Dr. Fukuyama has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man, has appeared in over twenty foreign editions. His most recent book, Liberalism and Its Discontents, was published in the spring of 2022.

Francis Fukuyama
Francis Fukuyama

In-person: William J. Perry Conference Room (Encina Hall, 2nd floor, 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)
Online: Via Zoom

Alexandra Hudson
Seminars
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Liminal Minorities: Religious Difference and Mass Violence in Muslim Societies | Book Talk with Güneş Murat Tezcür

Why do some religious minorities, lacking any significant power and presenting no imminent threat, provoke the ire of popular groups and become targets of violent attacks? Tezcür's book offers the first comparative-historical study of mass atrocities targeting certain liminal minorities that are stigmatized across generations, as they lack theological recognition and social acceptance from a dominant religious group. The combination of hatred based on religious stigmas and political resentment becomes the spark leading to mass violence against these minorities. Case studies, utilizing a rich variety of original sources, focus on anti-Yezidi genocidal attacks in Iraq and anti-Alevi massacres in Turkey.

This event is co-sponsored by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, the Middle Eastern Studies Forum, and CDDRL's Program on Turkey.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Güneş Murat Tezcür (Ph.D., University of Michigan, 2005) is the Director of the School of Politics and Global Studies at the Arizona State University. He is also a professor in the same school. He is primarily a scholar of darker shades of human experience and explores the trajectories and legacies of political violence and politics of identity with a focus on Iranian, Kurdish, and Turkish human geography as well as the United States. His scholarship has appeared in many leading scholarly journals. His newest book is Liminal Minorities: Religion and Mass Violence in Muslim Societies (Cornell University Press, 2024). He most recently edited The Oxford Handbook of Turkish Politics (Oxford University Press, 2022). His scholarship has been supported by a variety of entities including the National Science Foundation, Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, and United States Institute of Peace. 

Encina Commons Room 119
615 Crothers Way, Stanford

Güneş Murat Tezcür
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