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Governance in the Arab World: New Research Agendas

The governance challenges confronting states and societies of the Arab world have continued to limit human development in the countries of the region. In the best functioning Arab states, populations confront problems of economic stagnation, poor or weak governance, and growing income inequality. These problems are compounded in many societies by the additional burdens of political conflict, humanitarian catastrophe, and destruction of critical infrastructure.

This roundtable brings together a group of scholars to reflect on these pressing problems and the imperative for new research agendas and lines of inquiry to address them.

CHAIR: Lisa Blaydes

SPEAKERS:

  • Alexandra Blackman
  • Diana Greenwald
  • Salma Mousa
  • Christiana Parreira
  • David Patel

About the Speakers

Lisa Blaydes

Lisa Blaydes

Professor of Political Science at Stanford University

Lisa Blaydes is a Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. She is the author of State of Repression: Iraq under Saddam Hussein (Princeton University Press, 2018) and Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak’s Egypt (Cambridge University Press, 2011). Professor Blaydes received the 2009 Gabriel Almond Award for best dissertation in the field of comparative politics from the American Political Science Association for this project.  Her articles have appeared in the American Political Science Review, International Studies Quarterly, International Organization, Journal of Theoretical Politics, Middle East Journal, and World Politics. During the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 academic years, Professor Blaydes was an Academy Scholar at the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies. She holds degrees in Political Science (PhD) from the University of California, Los Angeles, and International Relations (BA, MA) from Johns Hopkins University.

Alexandra Blackman

Alexandra Domike Blackman

Assistant Professor in Cornell University’s Department of Government

Alexandra Domike Blackman is an Assistant Professor in Cornell University’s Department of Government. In 2019-2020, she was a Post-Doctoral Associate at New York University - Abu Dhabi. Blackman’s work focuses on the development of religious identities in the political sphere, the challenges facing female politicians, and political party development in the Middle East. Her work has appeared in the Journal of PoliticsPolitical BehaviorPolitics & Religion, and Journal of Peace Research. Blackman was a Center for Arabic Study Abroad Fellow in Cairo, Egypt (2010-2011) and a Junior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC (2011-2012).

Diana Greenwald

Diana B. Greenwald

Associate Professor (effective August 2025) in the Department of Political Science at the City College of New York
Diana B. Greenwald is an Associate Professor (effective August 2025) in the Department of Political Science at the City College of New York. Her research focuses on the politics of the Middle East, nationalism, conflict, and state-building. She obtained her Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan in 2017. From 2017 to 2018, she was a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Middle East Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School. Her book, Mayors in the Middle: Indirect Rule and Local Government in Occupied Palestine (Columbia University Press, 2024), examines Palestinian local politics under Israeli occupation. This project draws on interviews with municipal leaders and local data on policing, taxing, and spending collected in the West Bank between 2014 and 2019. Greenwald's research has been published in PS: Political Science & Politics, Middle East Law and Governance, and Civil Wars. Her writing has also appeared in The National Interest, The Washington Post's Monkey Cage, +972 Magazine, and Foreign Policy. Her work has been supported by RFCUNY, the United States Institute of Peace, the Rackham Graduate School at the University of Michigan, and the Project on Middle East Political Science.
Salma Mousa

Salma Mousa

Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at UCLA

Salma Mousa is a scholar of social cohesion — typically using field experiments and partnerships with local governments and NGOs to explore the question of how to build it in the Middle East and beyond. Currently an Assistant Professor at UCLA's political science department, her research has been published in Science and covered by The Economist, BBC, Der Spiegel, the Times of London, and PBS NOVA. Mousa received her PhD from Stanford University's political science department in 2020 and was previously an Assistant Professor of political science at Yale University.

Christiana Parreira

Christiana Parreira

Assistant Professor in the Department of International Relations and Political Science at the Graduate Institute

Christiana Parreira is an Assistant Professor in the Department of International Relations and Political Science at the Graduate Institute. Her research focuses on the role of local political institutions and actors in governance, looking primarily at post-conflict contexts in the Middle East and North Africa. Her forthcoming book project examines how local governments and elections facilitated predatory state-building practices in Lebanon. In other research, she examines determinants of governance quality and distributive outcomes in Lebanon, Iraq, and elsewhere in the Global South. She received her PhD from Stanford University in 2020. Before joining the Graduate Institute, she served as a postdoctoral associate in the Department of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University and a pre-doctoral associate at the Harvard Kennedy School's Middle East Initiative.

David Patel

David Siddhartha Patel

Residential Visiting Scholar at the Middle East Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School

David Siddhartha Patel is a residential visiting scholar at the Middle East Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School. His research focuses on religious authority, social order, identity, and state-building in the contemporary Middle East. His book Order Out of Chaos: Islam, Information, and the Rise and Fall of Social Orders in Iraq (Cornell University Press, 2022) examines the role of mosques and clerical networks in generating order after state collapse and is based upon independent field research he conducted in Basra. It won the Best Book Award from the APSA MENA Politics section and honorable mention for the Political Networks section’s Best Book Award. Patel is currently working on two book-length projects. The first, “Defunct States of the Middle East,” chronicles the more than two dozen territorial polities that disappeared from the map of the region after 1918: how they came to be, how they died, and how they are remembered today. The second, “The Market for Ayatollahs,” examines competition and collusion between Shi‘a religious authorities in Najaf in Iraq and Qom in Iran and how that relationship constrains varieties of Shi‘ism in the world today. Before joining MEI, he was a senior fellow and associate director for research at the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University and, previously, an assistant professor of government at Cornell University. He holds a BA in economics and political science from Duke University and a PhD in political science from Stanford University.

Encina Hall E008, Garden-level East (616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)

This event is open to Stanford-affiliates only.

Alexandra Domike Blackman
Diana B. Greenwald
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CDDRL Postdoctoral Scholar, 2020-21
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An Egyptian-Canadian raised in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Canada, Salma Mousa received her PhD in Political Science from Stanford University in 2020. A scholar of comparative politics, her research focuses on migration, conflict, and social cohesion.  Salma's dissertation investigates strategies for building trust and tolerance after war. Leveraging field experiments among Iraqis displaced by ISIS,  American schoolchildren, and British soccer fans, she shows how intergroup contact can change real-world behaviors — even if underlying prejudice remains unchanged.   A secondary research agenda tackles the challenge of integrating refugees in the United States. Combining a meta-analytic review, ethnographic fieldwork, and field experiments with resettlement agencies, this project identifies risk factors and promising policies for new arrivals.  Salma has held fellowships at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Stanford’s Immigration Policy Lab, the Freeman Spogli Institute, the Stanford Center for International Conflict and Negotiation, the McCoy Center for Ethics in Society, and the Stanford Center on Philanthropy and Civil Society. Her work has been supported by the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (JPAL), the Innovations for Poverty Action Lab (IPA), the King Center on Global Development, the Institute for Research in the Social Sciences (IRiSS), the Program on Governance and Local Development (GLD), and the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies. Her research has been featured by The Economist, BBC, and Der Spiegel,  on the front page of the Times of London and on PBS NOVA.

CV
Salma Mousa
Christiana Parreira
David Siddhartha Patel

Encina Hall West, Room 408
Stanford, CA 94305-6044

(650) 723-0649
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Political Science
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Lisa Blaydes is a Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. She is the author of State of Repression: Iraq under Saddam Hussein (Princeton University Press, 2018) and Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak’s Egypt (Cambridge University Press, 2011). Professor Blaydes received the 2009 Gabriel Almond Award for best dissertation in the field of comparative politics from the American Political Science Association for this project.  Her articles have appeared in the American Political Science Review, International Studies Quarterly, International Organization, Journal of Theoretical Politics, Middle East Journal, and World Politics. During the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 academic years, Professor Blaydes was an Academy Scholar at the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies. She holds degrees in Political Science (PhD) from the University of California, Los Angeles, and International Relations (BA, MA) from Johns Hopkins University.

 

Affiliated faculty at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Affiliated faculty at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
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Lisa Blaydes
Panel Discussions
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Since its independence from French colonial rule in 1943, Lebanon has been a perennial bellwether of major geopolitical trends in the modern Middle East. Strategically located, populated by a diverse patchwork of ethnic and religious groups, and often too weak to fend off external interference, Lebanon is the quintessential arena for order contestation in the region. With the weakening of Iran-backed Hezbollah inside Lebanon, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and an uneasy ceasefire with Israel, can Lebanon turn the corner towards improved governance, stability, and perhaps even peace? This panel will explore what current dynamics in Lebanon can teach us about the actors and forces shaping the Land of the Cedars, as well as the wider Middle East. 

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. Her research focuses on Shia politics, Hezbollah, and Lebanon. The longtime managing editor of Lebanon's NOW news website, Ghaddar shed light on a broad range of cutting-edge issues, from the evolution of Hezbollah inside Lebanon's fractured political system to Iran's growing influence throughout the Middle East. Prior to joining NOW in 2007, Ghaddar wrote for the Lebanese newspapers As-Safir, An-Nahar, and Al-Hayat, and also worked as a researcher for the United Nations Development Program regional office. She is the author of the book “Hezbollahland.”

Abbas Milani is the Hamid and Christina Moghadam Director of Iranian Studies at Stanford University, one of the founding co-directors of the Iran Democracy Project and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. His expertise includes U.S.-Iran relations as well as Iranian cultural, political, and security issues.

Amichai Magen is the Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. In Israel, he is a Senior Lecturer (US Associate Professor), Head of the MA Program in Diplomacy & Conflict Studies, and Director of the Program on Democratic Resilience and Development (PDRD) at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy, Reichman University. His research and teaching interests address democracy, the rule of law, liberal orders, risk and political violence.

Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to Encina Hall E409 (Goldman Conference Room) may attend in person. Virtual to Public. 

Hanin Ghaddar
Amichai Magen
Abbas Milani
Panel Discussions
Israel Studies
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The Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at CDDRL and the Environmental Social Sciences department of the Doerr School of Sustainability

present a two-day conference

Climate Resilience and Local Governmental Policy: Lessons from Los Angeles and Tel Aviv

Los Angeles and Tel Aviv-Yafo are vibrant cultural and cosmopolitan centers characterized by significant demographic diversity. They are also home to disparate ethnic, religious, and cultural groups and are marked by stark contrasts in wealth and poverty. Despite their differences in size and geography, both cities face similar challenges in fashioning their responses to the anticipated adverse impacts of rapid climate change. To enhance climate resilience and ensure the effective implementation of climate policies, it is essential to consider not only the technical integrity of adaptation programs but also the socio-economic and cultural diversity unique to each city.

Studying these two cities side by side can shed light on how climate strategies can be adapted across scales and contexts. It can provide insights into navigating the complex interactions between central and local governments in designing climate adaptation programs. It can aid in prioritizing resource utilization to achieve the greatest possible reduction in climate-related risks. And, it can foster creative thinking about how equity-focused climate actions can be tailored to the unique needs, capacities, and values of diverse communities within each city.

PRESS
 

Day 1 — Evaluation of Past Environmental Cooperation Initiatives


8:15 - 9:00 am — Breakfast, Gathering, and Registration

 

9:00 - 9:15 am — Welcome: Global Contexts – Local Action
 

WELCOME

  • Chair: Alon Tal, Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Stanford University


 INTRODUCTION

  • Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Stanford University
  • Vicki Veenker, Vice Mayor, City of Palo Alto

 

9:15 - 10:15 am — Opening Keynote: Los Angeles and Tel Aviv-Yafo: The Urgency of Climate Resilience


PRESENTERS

  • The Honorable Nancy Sutley, Los Angeles Deputy Mayor of Energy and Sustainability
  • Noah Efron, Tel Aviv City Council member; Chair, Tel Aviv-Yafo Municipal Environmental Protection Committee

 

10:15 - 11:30 am — Panel 1: Water Management in Water Scarce Cities: Combatting Droughts and Ensuring Supply
 

  • Chair: Bruce Cain, Professor of Political Science, Director of the Bill Lane Center for the American West, Stanford University


PRESENTER

  • Felicia Marcus, William C. Landreth Visiting Fellow, Water in the West Program, Stanford University


PANELISTS

  • Dror Avisar, Head of the Water Research Center, Tel Aviv University
  • Maya Crabtree, Director of the Environment, Forum of 15, Israel
  • Gregory Pierce, Co-Executive Director, Luskin Center for Innovation, UCLA
     

11:30 - 11:45 am — Break

 

11:45 am – 1:00 pm — Panel 2: Health, Trees, and Thermal Comfort: Urban Strategies
 

  • Chair: Neta Lipman, Professional Director, The New Environmental School, Tel Aviv University; Former Deputy Director, Natural Resources and Climate Resilience, Israel Ministry for Environmental Protection


PANELISTS

  • Eitan Ben Ami, Director, Environment & Sustainability Authority, Tel Aviv-Yafo Municipality
  • Rachel Malarich, City Forest Officer, Los Angeles Public Works
  • David Pearlmutter, Professor, Ben Gurion University
  • Marta Segura, Chief Heat Officer & Director, Climate Emergency Mobilization Office, City of Los Angeles
  • Leeor Carasso, Tel Aviv University
     

1:00 - 2:00 pm — Lunch

 

2:00 - 3:30 pm — PARALLEL SESSIONS

Panel 3a (East Wing): Financing Climate Resilience in Local Government
 

  • Chair: Blas L. Pérez Henríquez, Founding Director, The California Global Energy, Water & Infrastructure Innovation Initiative, Stanford University


PANELISTS

  • Hend Halabi, Israel Ministry of Environmental Protection, Climate Adaptation Division
  • Dr. Michael Roth, Energy-Water Resilience Support Specialist, Golden Colorado
  • Tamar Zandberg, Director of Climate Policy Center, Ben Gurion University; Past Minister of Environmental Protection, Israel
  • Abby Edwards, CA Governor's Office of Land Use and Innovation
  • Snir Schwartz, Tel Aviv University Law School

 

Panel 3b (West Wing): Preparing for Sea Level Rise – Local Strategies
 

  • Chair: David Behar, Climate Program Director, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, and Chair, Practitioner Exchange for Effective Response to Sea Level Rise (PEERS)


PANELISTS

  • Udi Carmely, Architect & Urban Planner, Tel Aviv-Yafo Municipality
  • Galit Cohen, Senior Researcher, Israel Institute for National Security Studies; Director, Jewish Climate Trust
  • Daniella Hirschfeld, Assistant Professor, Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Utah State University
  • Eric Klinenberg, Helen Gould Shepard Professor in the Social Sciences, New York University
     

3:30 - 3:45 pm — Break

 

3:45 - 5:00 pm — Panel 4: Forest Fire Prevention, Cities and the Climate Crisis
 

  • Chair: Chris Field, Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies; Perry L. McCarty Director, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University


PRESENTERS

  • Frank Bigelow, Community Wildfire Preparedness & Mitigation Deputy Director, Cal Fire
  • Colin Price, Professor, Department of Geophysics, Tel Aviv University; Chair, Planet Zero Initiative
  • Yoav PerlmanDirector of Birdlife Israel, Society for Protection of Nature in Israel 

 

5:00 - 6:30 pm — Stanford Campus Sustainability Tours — Optional, Pick Up to One 
 

  • Stanford Central Energy Facilty (Energy Efficiency “Living lab” with three heat recovery tanks, micro-grid and novel heat recovery system)
    • Host: Dr. Lincoln Bleavans, Executive Director, Sustainability Utilities & Infrastructure, Stanford University
  • Ecoloigcal walking tour (Biodiversity and Conservation projects on campus)
    • Host: Dr. Alan Launer, Director, Conservation Planning, Stanford University
  • O'Donohue Family Stanford Educational Farm (Exceptional Environmental Educationl Center and Garden develoing agroecological relationships and natural diversity to grow over 200 varieties of vegetables, flowers, herbs, field crops and fruit)
    • Host: Gordon Bloom, Director, Social Entrepreneurship and Innovation Lab (SE Lab)- Human & Planetary Health; Founder, Social Entrepreneurship Collaboratory (SE Labs), Stanford University

 

6:15 - 7:00 pm — Reception in Courtyard

 

7:00 - 9:00 pm — Dinner and Keynote Address in Auditorium
 

  • Moderator: Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow of Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and Professor, by courtesy, of Sociology and of Political Science


KEYNOTE ADDRESS

  • Professor Steven Chu, William R. Kenan, Jr. Professor of Physics and Professor of Energy Science and Engineering, Stanford University; 1997 Nobel Prize for Physics; U.S. Secretary of Energy 2009-2013


Return to top, click FRIDAY, MAY 30 for Day 2 agenda 

FAQ
 

  • Can I attend only one day of the conference?
    Yes. Please note this in your registration.
  • Will meals be served? What if I have allergies or dietary needs?
    Yes, we will provide all meals listed on the schedule. Please indicate in your registration what your dietary restrictions are.
  • Where should I park?
    The closest parking to Paul Brest Hall is the Wilbur Field Garage (560 Wilbur Dr, Stanford). Permits are required and enforced Monday through Friday from 6:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Please visit the Stanford Transportation website for information about parking at Stanford and how to pay for parking.
  • Can I bike to and from the conference?
    Yes! Stanford is a bike-friendly campus. Moreover, there are plenty of spots to park bikes all over campus.
  • Is there a cost to attend the conference?
    No. However, once you sign up, we expect you to attend.
  • I am coming from out of town. Where can I stay?
    We have reserved a room block at the Sheraton Palo Alto Hotel with a negotiated rate. Let them know you are with our conference to receive that rate.
  • I have other questions. Who should I ask?
    Email Aleeza Schoenberg, Israel Program Manager at CDDRL.
  • I am a member of the media interested in covering this event. Who should I reach out to?
    Please send an email to CDDRL Communications and provide your name, outlet, number of people you will be traveling with, and what equipment you plan to bring.
     

We are grateful to Tel Aviv University, The Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation, the Jewish Climate Trust, and Hillel@Stanford for their support in making this conference possible.

The conference was held at Paul Brest Hall on Stanford's campus. Two-hundred people attended. Read about it in the news.

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This article examines how the evolution of ideational conflicts between Islamist and leftist intellectual advocates over the past four decades has shaped the dominant discourse and narrative through which leftists have sought to justify the repression of Islamist currents in the aftermath of the 2013 coup. Since the mid-1970s, debates and conflicts between Islamist and leftist intellectuals and activists have generated a variety of historical narratives and a repertoire of language that endorsed the political exclusion of ideological rivals. The 1970s and 1980s saw the advent of an Islamist ‘authenticity critique’ of the left. That critique argued that leftist movements do not enjoy an organic connection with Egyptian society, presenting them as foreign implants with questionable national loyalties. The political victories of the Muslim Brotherhood in the late 1980s and Islamist attacks against secular intellectuals in the 1990s, paved the way for a leftist counter-critique of Islamists, one that continues to shape leftist discourse in the contemporary moment. Adopting a strong nationalist veneer, the counter-critique held that it was the Islamist movement that lacked authentic roots in Egyptian society, while arguing that Islamists’ loyalties lie not with Egypt, but with international networks of Islamist groups and governments. By historicising the discursive and narrative battles between Islamist and leftist currents, the article contributes to our understanding of the intellectual origins of ‘affective polarization’ in post-2013 Egypt, shedding light on why it has taken on an exclusionary and violent turn.

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The Journal of North African Studies
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Hesham Sallam
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For decades, we tended to think about the Middle East as a region of the world perpetually trailing behind the arc of history — unable to arrive at democracy, economic interdependence, cooperative regionalism, and peace. But what if the Middle East is not a laggard, but a laboratory for 21st-century geopolitics? What if we approach the Middle East through a different lens, as an arena where global and regional powers (United States, Russia, China, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Turkey, etc.) compete to shape a new political order, offering us invaluable insights into the possible futures of global politics?

Geopolitics in the 21st-Century Middle East will explore the actors, trends, and dynamics that created the modern Middle East and shape it today and provide possible scenarios for the future. Featuring experts from across Stanford and the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, as well as experts from other institutions, the course starts with a historical overview of the formation of the modern Middle East. It will also analyze the role of states, authoritarianism, and violent non-state actors in the region. The course will then examine how various countries — Egypt, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and Turkey, for example — approach the deep transformations taking place in the Middle East. Toward the end of the course, students will consider scenarios for the future, including how the Middle East intersects with broader changes in the international system. Finally, the course will discuss prospects for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and evaluate whether the current tumult in the Middle East could create unexpected opportunities for broader regional peace.

Guest lecturers include Ali Yaycıoğlu (Director, Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, Stanford), Lisa Blaydes (Professor in Political Science and Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford), Amichai Magen (Visiting Professor and Fellow in Israel Studies, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford), Hanin Ghaddar (Senior Fellow, Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, Washington Institute), Cole Bunzel (Hoover Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford), Hesham Sallam (Senior Research Scholar, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford), Ayça Alemdaroğlu (Associate Director, Program on Turkey, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford), Abbas Milani (Director, Hamid and Christina Moghadam Program in Iranian Studies, Stanford), Benjamin Miller (Professor of International Relations, University of Haifa), and Ghaith al-Omari (Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation Senior Fellow, Washington Institute).

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Bassam Haddad
News

Syria in Transition: Historical Origins and Prospects

In a conversation with ARD Associate Director Hesham Sallam, Bassam Haddad, a leading expert on Syria and Associate Professor at George Mason University, addressed the factors that led to Assad’s fall, the role of international actors, and the uncertain prospects of Syria under its new leadership.
Syria in Transition: Historical Origins and Prospects
Eugene Kandel presents via Zoom in a webinar hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Program.
News

Eugene Kandel on Tackling Israel’s Internal Existential Risks

Kandel's talk with Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Amichai Magen focused on his work at the Israel Strategic Futures Institute (ISFI) in diagnosing what he and his colleagues identify as internal existential risks for Israel and the policy ideas generated by ISFI in response to those risks.
Eugene Kandel on Tackling Israel’s Internal Existential Risks
Ali Çarkoğlu
News

Polarization, Cleavages, and Democratic Backsliding: Electoral Dynamics in Turkey (1990-2023)

Using data from the World Values Survey and Turkish Election Studies, CDDRL Visiting Scholar Ali Çarkoğlu explores the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the enduring influence of cultural divides on Turkey’s political landscape.
Polarization, Cleavages, and Democratic Backsliding: Electoral Dynamics in Turkey (1990-2023)
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Open for enrollment now through Stanford Continuing Studies, "Geopolitics in the 21st-Century Middle East: Insights from Stanford Scholars and Other Experts" will run online for ten weeks on Wednesdays, from April 2 through June 4.

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Khushmita Dhabhai
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On January 31, 2025, the Program on Arab Reform and Development (ARD) at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) hosted a webinar examining the future of Syria following the December 2024 collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime. The event featured Bassam Haddad, a leading expert on Syria and Associate Professor at George Mason University. Haddad spoke in conversation with ARD Associate Director Hesham Sallam. The discussion focused on the factors that led to Assad’s fall, the role of international actors, and the uncertain prospects of Syria under its new leadership, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Haddad emphasized that while many Syrians welcomed the end of Assad’s decades-long rule, the transition has raised serious concerns about the country’s future. Over time, Assad’s regime had become weakened by corruption, economic decline, and an inability to provide basic services. By late 2024, Syria’s military was fragmented, demoralized, and lacked external support. When HTS forces advanced into Aleppo, Homs, and Damascus, the Syrian Army largely dissolved without significant resistance.

A key factor in Assad’s downfall was the unexpected inaction of his traditional allies. Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah — longtime backers of the regime — did not intervene. Iran, facing domestic unrest and wary of escalating tensions with Israel and the U.S., chose to stay out. Hezbollah, weakened by clashes with Israel, lacked the resources to help. Russia, preoccupied elsewhere, had seemingly accepted Assad’s fate. The lack of resistance suggests that the transfer of power may have been prearranged rather than a purely military victory.

The most immediate turning point came when Israel launched airstrikes that destroyed over 80% of Syria’s remaining military infrastructure. Notably, neither HTS nor other international actors responded to these strikes, fueling speculation about behind-the-scenes agreements between Turkey, Qatar, and Western powers.

With Assad gone, Ahmad Al-Shara, the leader of HTS, was declared Syria’s new president. However, Haddad noted that this transition was neither democratic nor transparent. Al-Shara, who was previously affiliated with Jabhat Al-Nusra (Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch), has rebranded himself as a moderate leader, promising inclusion and reform. However, Haddad pointed to major contradictions between his words and actions. The Syrian Army and security services have been dissolved, leading to concerns over instability. Government positions have been filled by HTS loyalists, excluding secular and nationalist opposition. Additionally, the new military structure requires recruits to undergo Sharia law training, raising fears about the ideological direction of the new government.

Syria’s transition is also deeply shaped by regional and international power struggles. Haddad stressed that HTS could not have taken power without Turkey’s approval. Turkey, focused on containing Kurdish forces in northern Syria, has played a key role in shaping post-Assad politics. Meanwhile, the U.S. recently announced its military withdrawal from Syria, leaving Kurdish forces vulnerable to both HTS control and Turkish expansion. Qatar and other Gulf states are increasingly involved in shaping Syria’s economy and political trajectory.

Looking ahead, Haddad identified five critical challenges that will determine Syria’s future:

  1. Sovereignty and territorial integrity – Can Syria reclaim full control of its territory, or will it remain influenced by foreign actors?
  2. Inclusion and transparency – Will the new government allow for democratic participation, or will HTS consolidate power?
  3. Economic recovery – Sanctions and economic devastation pose serious obstacles to stability.
  4. Rule of law and governance – No clear roadmap exists for elections, legal institutions, or constitutional reforms.
  5. Rebuilding and refugee return – Over five million Syrian refugees remain abroad, with no structured plan for their safe return.


While Assad’s downfall marks a historic moment, Syria’s future remains uncertain and fragile. Many Syrians who once celebrated the regime’s collapse now fear that HTS’s dominance will not bring real change. The gap between promised reforms and actual governance policies has fueled skepticism.

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Samer Abboud Examines the Politics of Exclusion in Syria [VIDEO]

Samer Abboud Examines the Politics of Exclusion in Syria [VIDEO]
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Voices from Syria Narrate Stories of Revolution and Conflict

Voices from Syria Narrate Stories of Revolution and Conflict
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Commentary

Bassam Haddad Analyzes the Root Causes and Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising [VIDEO]

Bassam Haddad Analyzes the Root Causes and Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising [VIDEO]
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Bassam Haddad
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In a conversation with ARD Associate Director Hesham Sallam, Bassam Haddad, a leading expert on Syria and Associate Professor at George Mason University, addressed the factors that led to Assad’s fall, the role of international actors, and the uncertain prospects of Syria under its new leadership.

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Gil Troy event

Join Hillel@Stanford and the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program in welcoming Professor Gil Troy to campus on Monday, March 3, at 5:30 pm.

Professor Troy has created a special program for Stanford students titled, “This is Not OK: Resisting the Academic Intifada with a Positive Liberal, American, and Zionist Vision.” After the presentation, he will engage students in an intimate conversation and Q&A session.

A light, kosher dinner will be provided. Advance RSVP via mobile device is required. Please email brandenj@stanford.edu with any questions.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Professor Gil Troy is a Senior Fellow in Zionist Thought at The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI)—a global Jewish think tank—and the author of, most recently, "The Essential Guide to October 7th and its Aftermath: Facts, Figures, History," as well as "To Resist the Academic Intifada: Letters to My Students on Defending the Zionist Dream.” He is also a Distinguished Scholar in North American History at McGill University living in Jerusalem, an award-winning American presidential historian, and a leading Zionist thinker.

Open to Stanford students only.

Koret Pavilion (Hillel@Stanford, 565 Mayfield Ave, Stanford)

RSVP via mobile device. Click "Register via Mobile" or text Gil Troy to 650.547.7882.

Gil Troy
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Roberta Gatti ARD event

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies are not catching up with the rest of the world. The region’s average per capita income has increased by just 62 percent over the last 50 years. In comparison, over the same period, the increase was fourfold in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and twofold in advanced ones. Only a few developing MENA economies have avoided diverging further from the richest countries’ living standards (what economists call the frontier), and those where conflicts erupted have accelerated in the wrong direction. In this presentation, Roberta Gatti will discuss the factors that shape MENA’s long-term growth potential, with special attention to the role of the state in the economy, the persistent effects of conflict, and the boost that closing the gender gap in the labor force can deliver in terms of growth.

This event is co-sponsored by the Program on Arab Reform and Development and the Program on Capitalism and Democracy, as well as the Middle Eastern Studies Forum.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Roberta Gatti is the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank, where she oversees the analytical agenda of the region and the publication of the semi-annual MENA Economic Updates. She is the founder of the MENA Central Banks Regional Research Network. In her prior capacity as Chief Economist for the Human Development Practice Group, Roberta co-led the conceptualization and launch of the World Bank Human Capital Index and the scale up of the Service Delivery Indicators data initiative.

Roberta joined the World Bank as a Young Professional in the Macro unit of the Development Research Group, and she has since led and overseen both operational and analytical work in her roles of Manager and of Global Lead for Labor Policies.

Roberta’s research, spanning a broad set of topics such as growth, firm productivity, the economics of corruption, gender equity, and labor markets, has been published in lead field journals such as the Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of Economic Growth, and the Journal of Development Economics. She is also the lead author of a number of flagship reports, including Jobs for Shared Prosperity: Time for Action in the Middle East and North Africa; Striving for Better Jobs: The Challenge of Informality in Middle East and North Africa; The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19; and Service Delivery in Education and Health across Africa.

Roberta has taught courses at the undergraduate, masters, and Ph.D. Level at Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities. She is a frequent lecturer on development economics, most recently at Dartmouth College, Princeton University, and Cornell University. Roberta holds a B.A. from Università Bocconi and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University.

In-person: Encina Hall E008, Garden-level East (616 Jane Stanford Way Stanford)

Online: Via Zoom

Roberta Gatti
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As part of its 2025 Winter Webinar Series, the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) hosted a webinar featuring Eugene Kandel in conversation with Amichai Magen. Kandel, the former head of Israel’s National Economic Council and a professor of economics and finance at Hebrew University, is the co-founder of the Israel Strategic Futures Institute (ISFI). The talk focused on Kandel’s work at ISFI in diagnosing what Kandel and his colleagues identify as internal existential risks for Israel, and the policy ideas generated by ISFI in response to those risks.

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Kandel outlined the three incompatible ideological groupings found in Israeli society. One group believes in Jewish liberal democracy, one is primarily Hasidic and believes in the Torah’s centrality, and one desires a non-Jewish country for all citizens. Disproportionate population growth in the Hasidic group puts liberal democracy at risk, while Hasidic citizens rely heavily on social services, which will soon be unsustainable.

Drawing on examples in Northern Ireland, Switzerland, and Belgium, Kandel proposes a professional, easily replaceable, non-political government. Every Israeli citizen would be a member of one of three "Alumot"—a word meaning clusters—each with their own constitutions, taxes, social services, and elections. Changes in government would require consensus from all three Alumot. Since citizens would choose their Alumot freely and could even switch between them, the Alumot serving members would be motivated to improve citizens’ lives and economic conditions.

Magen countered that Kandel's proposals wrongly gave up on a shared Israeliness that - with all its difficulties - has proven highly successful in the past seven and a half decacdes, and that the Alumot idea is politically impractical. Kandel and Magen discussed how the current issues with Israeli society, namely its division, are the same limiting factor in adapting a new political system. They also discussed how Jews outside Israel can help the Israeli government thrive, and how Israel needs to address its internal conflicts if it has a realistic prospect of successfully managing its external challenges.

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Eugene Kandel presents via Zoom in a webinar hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Program.
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Kandel's talk with Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Amichai Magen focused on his work at the Israel Strategic Futures Institute (ISFI) in diagnosing what he and his colleagues identify as internal existential risks for Israel and the policy ideas generated by ISFI in response to those risks.

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As part of its 2025 Winter Webinar Series, the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) hosted a webinar featuring Ari Shavit in conversation with Amichai Magen. One of Israel's most seasoned and informed journalists and political analysts, Shavit is also the author of the New York Times bestseller My Promised Land: The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel (2013). In the aftermath of the October 7th Hamas attack, Shavit was one of the first to grapple with the strategic causes and consequences of the attack and subsequent war, publishing a short book on the subject in the spring of 2024, titled Existential War: From Catastrophe, to Victory, to Revival (2024) [Hebrew]. 

Taking Existential War as the starting point for their conversation, Magen and Shavit discussed how a combination of Israeli complacency, miscalculations vis-a-vis Hamas, internal divisions, and overreliance on defensive technologies allowed the October 7th attacks to occur. They discussed Ze’ev Jabotinsky’s 1923 essay, The Iron Wall, and David Ben-Gurion's national defense strategy as a means of understanding the contemporary struggle between Iran and its proxies, on the one hand, and Israel and its allies, on the other hand. Shavit outlined Israel’s past successes and the need to update Jabotinsky’s and Ben-Gurion's strategic doctrines for 21st-century realities. For Shavit, Iran poses the greatest threat to stability and safety in the Middle East and the West. Magen and Shavit also discussed the future of Gaza and Syria, the roles that Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia play in the region, and the risk that the weakening of the Iran-led Shi'a axis could be replaced by a Syria-centered radical Sunni axis in the Middle East. Against this background, it is imperative that the United States work closely with Israel and pragmatic Sunni Arab countries in the region — most importantly, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE — to shape a new regional framework for the Middle East.

A full recording of the conversation can be viewed below.

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