Drawing from the author’s latest book, Jordan: Politics in an Accidental Crucible (Oxford University Press, 2025), this talk explores how the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan incubates the historical struggle for democracy in the Arab world. Here, the authoritarian monarchy has never suffered revolution or regime change. Yet the economy struggles, there is neither water nor oil, and perpetual protests punctuate the streets. An invention of British colonialism, the kingdom’s fragile borders are still buffeted by refugee crises and regional conflict, and its geopolitical fate has become encaged by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Through it all, Jordan’s past and present deliver astonishing narratives of democratic resilience. Opposition forces within society have long battled to transform their autocratic regime—only to be blunted by repression, statecraft, and Western interests. Yet these dreams and demands persist today, making Jordan a surprising fulcrum for the balance of democracy in the Middle East.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Sean Yom is Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University and Senior Fellow at Democracy in the Arab World Now (DAWN). His research explores the dynamics of authoritarian institutions, economic development, and US foreign policy in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Jordan, Morocco, and the Gulf. His most recent books include Jordan: Politics in an Accidental Crucible (Oxford University Press, 2025) and The Political Science of the Middle East: Theory and Research since the Arab Uprisings (co-edited with Marc Lynch and Jillian Schwedler; Oxford University Press, 2022).; Oxford University Press, 2022). He sits on the editorial board of the International Journal of Middle East Studies and the editorial committee of Middle East Report. He is also a former Stanford CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow (2009-10). AB, Brown University (2003); PhD, Harvard University (2009).

The U.S.-Israel military aid framework is defined by a 10-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for fiscal years 2019–2028, providing $38 billion ($3.3B annual Foreign Military Financing + $500M annual missile defense). This aid helps fund Israeli defense imports and joint U.S.-Israel projects like the Iron Dome missile defense system, but also provides the U.S. security establishment with unique access to Israeli defense tech. As we near the end of the current MOU, American and Israeli officials have begun discussions over the future of U.S.-Israel military innovation cooperation and financing. Recent developments suggest that the relationship may undergo substantial changes after 2028. The 2026 National Defense Strategy issued by the Pentagon, for example, describes Israel as a "model ally" — a skilled and fiscally responsible partner, bringing substantial national security benefits to the U.S. At the same time, in a recent interview with The Economist, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, declared he intends to wean Israel off U.S. military aid entirely over the next 10 years. What factors influence U.S.-Israel security cooperation and long-term defense finance planning? How might these relations evolve over the coming decade in a world increasingly defined by war and potential great power conflict? Join former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Daniel Shapiro, for a conversation about these essential questions.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Ambassador Daniel B. Shapiro is a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. From 2022 to 2023, he was the Director of the N7 Initiative.

In his most recent government service, Shapiro was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East from 2024 to 2025, and prior to that was Senior Adviser on Regional Integration in the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. He is a former US ambassador to Israel, serving from 2011 to 2017. Prior to his appointment, he worked as senior director for the Middle East and North Africa on the National Security Council at the White House, following his role as senior policy adviser in Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

From 2001 to 2007, Shapiro worked as legislative director and later as deputy chief of staff for then-U.S. Senator Bill Nelson. From 1999 to 2001, he was director for legislative affairs at the National Security Council, serving as congressional liaison for National Security Adviser Sandy Berger. Shapiro also previously served as a staff member on the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East and as a senior foreign policy adviser to US Senator Dianne Feinstein.

Shapiro has served as an adjunct professor at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, and in 2007, he was named vice president of Timmons & Company. Shapiro was a distinguished visiting fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv from 2017 to 2021. Concurrently, he was a principal at WestExec Advisors.

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Liberal order — composed of sovereign statehood, individual rights, democratic government under the rule of law, and economic openness — is under growing pressure around the world. The modern State of Israel was born with, and into, the Liberal International Order (LIO) built under American leadership in the aftermath of the Second World War and has generally thrived in that liberal world. How is Israel experiencing the challenge to liberal order and the erosion (some would say collapse) of the LIO? What shapes the Israeli experience with liberalism and public debate about the strengths and weaknesses of liberal politics? Join us for a conversation about the past, present, and possible futures of liberalism in Israel with political theorist, author, and activist Dr. Tomer Persico.   

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Dr. Tomer Persico is a Senior at the Shalom Hartman Institute and a Senior Research Scholar at the UC Berkeley Center for Middle Eastern Studies. Persico was the Koret Visiting Assistant Professor at the UC Berkeley Institute for Jewish Law and Israel Studies for three years and has taught for eight years at Tel Aviv University. His fields of expertise include cultural history, the liberal order, Jewish modern identity, contemporary spirituality, and Jewish fundamentalism. His books include The Jewish Meditative Tradition (Hebrew, Tel Aviv University Press, 2016), Liberalism: its Roots, Values and Crises (Hebrew, Dvir, 2024 and German, NZZ Libro, 2025) and In God's Image: How Western Civilization Was Shaped by a Revolutionary Idea (Hebrew, Yedioth,2021, English, NYU Press,2025). Persico is a liberal activist in Israel and has written hundreds of articles on current events for legacy media outlets, including Haaretz and The Washington Post. He lives in Jerusalem with his wife and two sons.

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