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Argument & Key Findings


Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have been a widespread and effective tool in reducing poverty in Latin America. CCT programs transfer cash to the poor on the condition that recipients engage in beneficial behaviors, like enrolling their children in school, vaccinating them, or taking them to see a physician. CCTs aim to break the intergenerational cycle of poverty, especially among women. Indeed, women are central to CCTs as they are often responsible for children’s health and nutrition as well as ensuring that they remain enrolled in school.

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros reviews the scholarship on CCTs in Latin America, where much of that research had originated, shedding light on these programs’ workings and effects. Particular focus is given to how CCTs have helped overcome shortcomings of democratic systems, including ‘clientelism,’ broadly understood as the practice of politicians trading goods or services for votes. Despite CCTs’ broad success, challenges persist, especially regarding their use to mitigate poverty that is concentrated in rural areas as well as among indigenous and Afro-descendant peoples. The reader learns that CCTs are deeply interwoven with the behavior of politicians and the mobilization of social groups for political goals. CCTs are very malleable tools, having been adapted to the advent of COVID-19 when contagion and income loss were prevalent among the poor. CCTs have been one of the most rigorously evaluated interventions by social scientists. Most generally, they have reduced poverty, inequality, and infant mortality, while increasing school enrollment and nutrition.
 


Despite CCTs’ broad success, challenges persist, especially regarding their use to mitigate poverty that is concentrated in rural areas as well as among indigenous and Afro-descendant peoples.


Conceptualizing & Measuring Poverty


Díaz-Cayeros builds an incredibly rich historical overview of poverty in Latin America. This includes both its persistence and its dramatic decline in recent decades, CCTs having played a key role in the latter process. However, national-level declines obscure the wide disparities that persist at the subnational level and among historically marginalized communities. In addition, efforts (like CCTs) aimed at tackling poverty have often failed to address inequality, because social spending in Latin America has at times been regressive, i.e., taking resources from the poor and giving them to the middle and upper classes. Meanwhile, fiscal resources are often transferred to poor regional governments, as opposed to the individuals within them.

Poverty persists in part because of ‘poverty traps,’ a technical concept tied to factors like limited access to credit and education as well as poor health. These problems are especially pronounced in rural areas, which are often isolated from economic activity, lack the social mobility of cities, and tend to feature systemic exclusion along ethno-racial lines. The measurement of poverty has become increasingly sophisticated, moving beyond income to incorporate assets, basic needs, and geospatial data. The upshot of Díaz-Cayeros’ overview is that measurements of poverty, which any evaluation of CCTs must incorporate, often fail to account for poverty traps and their concentration among distinct groups in specific areas.

Background & Variation


Díaz-Cayeros examines the historical roots of CCTs, highlighting the role of 20th-century Latin American governments in replacing Catholic charities and philanthropists as the primary actors addressing poverty. These governments sought to target primarily urban poverty, owing to large-scale processes of internal migration, which moved workers away from agriculture and into factories and the informal economy. This helps explain the persistence of rural poverty. State social spending was undermined by the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s and 1990s, which disproportionately harmed the rural poor. The 2010s commodity boom enabled a re-expansion of social spending, although these programs continued to be insufficient to lift historically marginalized peoples out of poverty. The creation of CCTs by Mexican economist Santiago Levy in the 1990s can thus be placed against this backdrop of poverty, austerity, and labor market change.

CCTs have been widely adopted across Latin America by governments of different partisan leanings. One important determinant of this process has been fiscal constraint: because CCTs are relatively inexpensive, wealthier countries adopted them later. It should also be noted that effective CCTs depend on effective states, which provide, among other things, the hospitals and schools that recipients must utilize. By the mid-2020s, nearly 60 programs existed across Latin America, varying widely in terms of the share of beneficiaries of the total population. Countries that adopted CCTs early on do not necessarily have larger shares of beneficiaries, and larger shares don’t necessarily mean a given CCT is effectively helping the poor.
 


One of the most important political aspects of CCTs is their potential resistance to ‘clientelism.’


Clientelism & Democracy


One of the most important political aspects of CCTs is their potential resistance to ‘clientelism.’ What this means is that universal and automatic criteria for CCT recipients can limit the ability of politicians to trade particular benefits for votes. As such, CCTs have helped improve Latin American democracy, partly because politicians who ‘credit-claim’ for implementing CCTs can be more readily held accountable. On the ground, politicians still find ways to perpetuate clientelism, for example by manipulating the distribution of non-CCT goods like water cisterns. However, the broader implications of CCT are significant: as citizens’ cash needs are met, they can more meaningfully participate in the democratic process.
 


The broader implications of CCT are significant: as citizens’ cash needs are met, they can more meaningfully participate in the democratic process.


Future Research


Díaz-Cayeros posits an agenda for future research. These include: (1) the ways that continued discrimination against indigenous and Afro-descendant communities may require changes to the design of CCTs, (2) the ways that CCTs can be complemented by private charities and NGOs; the ways that expansions to CCT might bring Latin American governments closer to providing a universal basic income, and (3) the sources of Latin American citizens’ support for CCTs, whether owing to moral sensibilities, fear of deprivation, or otherwise. Ultimately, CCTs have been broadly successful and adaptable, improving both the economic standing and political efficacy of poor citizens. Their long-term success depends upon addressing the victims of systemic exclusion and intergenerational poverty.

*Research-in-Brief prepared by Adam Fefer.

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Ricardo Brugada, Asunción, Paraguay Benjamin Shurance
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We examine how social stigma affects the willingness of low-income individuals to apply for financial support. After completing tasks to earn income in the lab, participants are given the opportunity to apply for a transfer from a social fund earmarked for the lowest earners. We experimentally vary whether the application is public or private and whether the funds come from the experimenters or other participants. We find that making the application public reduces take-up by 31 percentage points. Adding peer funding leads to a further 10 percentage point drop. These effects are strongest when income is earned through effort instead of a lottery, and when both public visibility and peer funding are present. The findings are not driven by altruistic or redistributive preferences, but perspective taking makes participants more sensitive to the public application treatment. Our findings suggest that ensuring privacy in the application process helps increase access to income support programs.

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Stanford King Center on Global Development
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Marcel Fafchamps
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Economic growth is uneven within many developing countries as some sectors and industries grow faster than others. India is no exception, where anemic performance in manufacturing has been offset by robust growth in services. Standard scholarly explanations fail to explain this kind of variation. For instance, the factor endowments that are required for services—such as an educated workforce or access to electricity and other infrastructure—should also complement manufacturing. Reciprocally, if a state’s institutions hold back manufacturing, they should also impair growth in services. Why have services in India outperformed manufacturing? We examine India’s performance in the computing industry, where a dynamic software services sector has emerged even as its computer hardware manufacturing sector has flagged. We argue that the uneven outcomes between the software and hardware sectors are due to the variable needs of the respective sectors and the state’s capacity to coordinate agencies. The policies required to promote the software sector needed minimal coordination between state agencies, whereas the computer hardware sector required a more centralized state apparatus for successful state-business engagement. Domestic and transnational political networks were critical for the success of the software sector, but similar networks could not deliver the same benefits to the computer hardware industry, which required more coordination-intensive policies than software. A state’s ability to coordinate industrial policy is thus a critical determinant for effective sectoral political networks, shaping sectoral variations within an economy.

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Studies in Comparative International Development
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Dinsha Mistree
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Research shows that microfinance clients use credit and savings as commitment devices to accumulate lump sums. Evidence from Pakistan suggests high demand for fixed-repayment contracts, but low demand for commitment add-ons in both credit and savings.

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McGill University Professor of Political Science Juliet Johnson unpacked how central banks use their own museums to support the ‘stability narrative’ and promote confidence in financial institutions. She discussed her research in a recent REDS seminar co-sponsored by CDDRL and The Europe Center.

Central banks may be unique among government bureaucracies because of their investment in their own museums. Central banks focus on public outreach because monetary systems depend on collective belief in the value of money, as it is one of the most essential social contracts upon which modern society is built.

Museums can be effective instruments for improving faith in money and financial institutions. Visitors are unusually receptive to learning from museums because museums are often viewed as neutral, trusted guides. The number of central bank museums has increased significantly over the last two decades, and some get many visitors yearly. The Museum Bank Indonesia has an impressive 10,781 Google reviews and a 4.7-star rating.

The nearly 60 central bank museums that focus on economic education (in addition to numismatics and/or art) promote what Johnson calls the stability narrative, which is that central banks can maintain the value and security of money, represent the nation, and have become progressively more effective over time.

Through interactive exhibits and games, these museums aim to teach visitors that the central bank is needed to fight the evils of inflation. For example, the Bank of Finland museum has a display that features a green inflation monster to convey this sentiment. They use the exhibits to emphasize how people can be personally affected by inflation and, in many cases, to explain why maintaining a 2% inflation rate is ideal for protecting the value of money.

Central banks convey a sense of security to visitors through exhibits about detecting counterfeit money, regulating banks, and displaying their wealth, such as with gold bars. They tie their work to national pride through art displays about national heroes depicted on currency and by relating their work to prominent historical events. Through visual timelines, they convey how central bankers have learned from past mistakes and solved problems, making them more equipped to continue ensuring the stability of our financial system.

The rise of central bank museums exhibits the importance of improving public confidence in money and the financial institutions that control it, legitimizing an essential aspect of our society. 

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Juliet Johnson, Professor of Political Science at McGill University, explores how central banks build public trust through museums.

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Poverty relief policies based on Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs are perhaps the most fundamental institutional social policy innovation at the turn of the twentieth century. It was in Latin America where they were initially created. This chapter explores the political economy of the adoption of CCT antipoverty interventions, why they have improved targeting in favor of the poor, how they have become increasingly popular among politicians and policy makers, and whether structuring these programs has shifted policy discretion away from political clientelism, in favor of becoming true entitlements. One major implication of the rise of CCTs is that citizens in Latin America can now judge the competence and performance of politicians in terms of their success or failure in reducing poverty.

This is a draft (longer version) of the forthcoming article prepared for the Oxford Handbook of Social Policies in the Global South (2025). Edited by: Armando Barrientos, Matthew Carnes, Huck-Ju Kwon, Herbert Obinger, Leila Patel and Carina Schmitt. Oxford University Press.

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Alberto Díaz-Cayeros
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In-person: Stanford Graduate School Business - C105 (655 Knight Way, Stanford)

Online: Via Zoom

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Supply chains can be surprisingly complex. In many low- and middle-income settings, large companies often rely on networks of small, independent distributors who travel by foot to sell consumer goods to otherwise hard-to-reach customers (Kruijff et al. 2024). These ‘micro-distributors’ operate at the far edge of the supply chain, with no formal employment contracts, thin profit margins, and high levels of economic risk.

In a field experiment in Kenya, we partnered with one of the world’s largest food manufacturers (pseudonymously “FoodCo”) to evaluate whether investment-appropriate financing contracts could help their independent distributors improve their business performance. We found that tailoring repayment terms to better share risk and rewards—compared to a standard, rigid debt contract—significantly boosted distributors’ profits. Crucially, these more flexible contracts took advantage of detailed administrative data on monthly performance. These findings underscore the promise of improved observability enabled by digitisation: with richer data, financial contracts can be designed to incorporate greater risk-sharing (Fischer 2013, Meki 2024), potentially opening new opportunities for mutually beneficial investments.

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Flexible financing for ‘last-mile’ distributors boosted profits across a food supply chain in Kenya.

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February 2025, 105303
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