Historically, external threats have tended to unite Israelis and impose a measure of national cohesion on its fractured politics. Yet two years after the worst external attack in the country's history, and in the face of multiple external challenges, Israel is internally divided as never before. Indeed, the country can now be said to be in the midst of a constitutional crisis centered on competing interpretations of democracy and Jewish identity. Few scholars are better placed to analyze this crisis than Dr. Masua Sagiv, a leading analyst of Israeli political culture and constitutional order. Join Amichai Magen in conversation with Masua Sagiv.

Dr. Masua Sagiv is Senior Faculty at the Shalom Hartman Institute and Senior Fellow at the Helen Diller Institute for Jewish Law and Israel Studies at UC Berkeley School of Law. Masua’s scholarly work focuses on the development of contemporary Judaism in Israel, as a culture, religion, nationality, and as part of Israel’s identity as a Jewish and democratic state. Her research explores the role of law, state actors, and civil society organizations in promoting social change across diverse issues: shared society, religion and gender, religion and state, and Jewish peoplehood. Her recently published book Radical Conservatism (Carmel, 2024) examines the use of law in the Halachic Feminist struggle in Israel.

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The 2023-25 Hamas-Israel war proved to be not only the longest war in Israel's history but, remarkably, given that Hamas is a non-state terrorist organization, a war with profound regional consequences. As multiple regional and global actors seek to influence the "day after" in Gaza for their own strategic interests, questions about the broader meaning and implications of the Gaza-centered conflict assume greater international importance. The war has catalyzed a series of regional and global shifts, exposing the limits of external actors, testing the resilience of long-standing alliances, and reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East. In this timely conversation, moderated by Or Rabinowitz, Oded Ailam, former head of the Mossad’s Counterterrorism Division, will offer an in-depth analysis of how the Hamas-Israel war continues to reverberate across the region and beyond.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Oded Ailam is a seasoned security and intelligence expert with a career spanning over two decades in Israel’s elite intelligence agency the Mossad. Among his many high-ranking roles, he was the director of the Mossad’s Counter-Terrorism Center (CTC). After retiring from the Mossad, Ailam transitioned into the private sector, offering security and strategic consulting services. Ailam is frequently invited to lecture at international conferences. His insights are regularly featured on FOX News, CNN, Newsmax, The Washington Post, Newsweek, as well as most of the major European media. Ailam writes regularly in Israel Hayom newspaper and other international outlets and appears regularly on prime-time television in Israel.  Ailam is a senior researcher in the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA), and an advising analyst to FDD, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. Ailam is a graduate of Ben-Gurion University, where he earned a degree in Industrial Engineering and Management. He also founded a company specializing in industrial quality control solutions. He published his first short novel, a bestseller in Israel. He is a writer and contributor to scripts in Hollywood, France, and Israel, bringing his expertise in espionage and security to the world of storytelling.

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Professor Karnit Flug served the the Governor of the Bank of Israel from 2013 to 2018, overseeing the stability of the country's financial system and advising the Israeli government on economic policy, taxation, and growth strategies. In a career spanning four decades, Professor Flug has gained an unparalled insider's view into the stucture, strengths, vulnerabilities, and possible trajectories of the Israeli economy. After two years of war and growing international challenges, where is the Israeli economy now and where might it be going? Join Amichai Magen in conversation with Karnit Flug. 

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Karnit Flug is the William Davidson Senior Fellow for Economic Policy at the Center for Governance and the Economy at the Israel Democracy Institute. After she completed her five-year term as Governor of the Bank of Israel in 2018, she joined the Department of Economics at Hebrew University. Prior to her appointment as Governor, Flug was the Bank of Israel’s Deputy Governor. Previously, Flug was Director of the Research Department and Chief Economist of the Bank of Israel. She published numerous papers on macroeconomic policies, the labor market, balance of payments and social policies. She was an economist at the International Monetary Fund, before returning to Israel to join the Research Department of the Bank of Israel. She also worked at the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington D.C. as a Senior Research Economist. She served on a number of public and government committees, including the Committee on Increasing Competitiveness in the Economy, the Committee for Social and Economic Change ("the Trajtenberg Committee"), the Defense Budget. Flug received her M.A. (cum laude) in Economics from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and her Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University.

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The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran turned what were formerly close allies into mortal enemies. For decades after the revolution, Iran and Israel fought each other in the shadows - through clandestine operations and proxies - but avoided direct military confrontation. This changed dramatically over the past two years. With Iran on the verge of nuclear breakout, the Islamic Republic launched hundreds of ballistic missiles against Israel in April and October of 2024. Having coordinated its response closely with the United States, Israel struck back in June 2025, aiming to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile stockpiles and set back its nuclear program. What were the actual outcomes of the 12-day Iran-Israel war? Is Iran more motivated than ever to acquire nuclear weapons? And what comes next in the Iran-Israel conflict? Join Or Rabinowitz in conversation with Sima Shine and Raz Zimmt. 

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Sima Shine is a Senior Researcher and former Director of the research program "Iran and the Shiite Axis" at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). For most of her career, Ms. Shine served in the Israeli Intelligence Community. Her last position was Head of the Research & Evaluation Division of the Mossad (2003-2007).  After her retirement from the Mossad, Shine served as Deputy Head of Strategic Affairs in Israel's National Security Council (2008-2009) and then (2009 -2016) served in the Ministry of Strategic Affairs, where she was responsible, inter alia, for the Iranian file and was deputy Director General.

Dr. Raz Zimmt is the Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). He is also the co-editor of the institute’s journal, Strategic Assessment. He holds a master's degree and a Ph.D. in Middle Eastern history from Tel Aviv University. His Ph.D. dissertation focused on Iranian policy towards Nasserism and Arab radicalism between 1954 and 1967. Additionally, he is a research fellow at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel-Aviv University. He is the author of the book “Iran From Within: State and Society in the Islamic Republic," published (in Hebrew) in 2022, and has published extensively on Iranian politics, society, and foreign policy. He has also regularly provided expert commentary to Israeli and international media. Dr. Zimmt is a veteran Iran watcher in the Israeli Defense Forces, where he served for more than two decades.

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French-born Israeli political scientist, author, and foreign policy expert, Emmanuel Navon is the author of several books, including The Star and the Scepter: A Diplomatic History of Israel, published in 2020 and which has since been translated into French, Hebrew, Italian, Japanese, and Mandarin. A comprehensive, historically informed survey of Israel's external relations, The Star and the Scepter provides a unique vantage point from which to explore the past, present, and possible futures of Israel's place in the world. Join Amichai Magen in conversation with Emmanuel Navon.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Dr. Emmanuel Navon lectures in International Relations at Tel Aviv University, is a Senior Fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and is a foreign affairs analyst for i24news. The author of four books, he has published in leading IR journals, and his commentary has appeared in outlets such as Le Monde and Newsweek. Previously, Navon served as CEO of ELNET-Israel, a public-policy think tank. Dr. Navon was born in Paris, France, and was educated in a bilingual (French/English) school. He graduated in public administration from Sciences-Po. In 1993 he moved to Israel and earned a Ph.D. in international relations from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

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What has been Israel’s understanding and response to Russia’s assault on Ukraine? How did the Russia-Ukraine war impact Israeli national security and foreign policy? And what strategic lessons should Israel derive from the Russia-Ukraine war for its own national security? Join former Member of Knesset, Ksenia Svetlova, in conversation with Or Rabinowitz.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Ksenia Svetlova is an Executive Director of ROPES – The Regional Organization for Peace, Economics and Security, an associate fellow at Chatham House, London and a former member of the Israeli Knesset. She focuses on issues of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israeli-Arab relations, Russian influence in the Middle East, as well as the regional and international relations of the Middle East. Svetlova has covered the Middle East for fifteen years for Israeli and International media. She reported from Gaza, West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia and Libya. 

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After a distinguished career in law, public policy, and broadcasting in her native Toronto, Vivian Bercovici served as Canada's Ambassador to Israel from 2014 to 2016. She then made Aliyah, becoming an Israeli citizen and settling in Tel-Aviv. Over the past decade, Bercovici has become a leading commentator on Israeli society and politics, foreign policy, and Israel-Diaspora relations. In February 2023, she founded the State of Tel-Aviv podcast and newsletter. After the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack, Vivian Bercovici moved to Kibbutz Ruchama in the south of Israel, renaming her podcast State of Tel-Aviv and Beyond. Join Amichai Magen in conversation with Vivian Bercovici.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Vivian Bercovici served as Canada’s Ambassador to Israel from 2014-16 and, in a short time, established herself as a strong, articulate, and forceful commentator and leader on Israeli politics, foreign policy relationships, and the business environment. Prior to her appointment by former PM Stephen Harper as Ambassador, Vivian practiced law in Toronto for 24 years. She was actively involved in the dynamic Jewish community in Toronto, wrote a column on Israel-related issues in The Toronto Star, and taught as an adjunct professor at the University of Toronto Faculty of Law. She currently resides in Israel and is engaged in private business ventures as well as public speaking on issues related to the Middle East, with a particular focus on Israel. 

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Why do opposition parties so often struggle to challenge aspiring autocrats in elections? I argue that elite economic coercion—the credible threat of economic retaliation against opposition-aligned elites—is a core, overlooked authoritarian strategy that erodes opposition candidate quality and electoral appeal. Incumbents leverage control over state institutions and resources to punish candidates and their families through firings, blacklisting, tax audits, and contract denials. This deters state-dependents from political entry, shrinking opposition parties’ talent pool. I use original data from Hungary’s autocratization episode. New panel data on the performance of candidate-connected firms documents widespread economic retaliation upon opposition political entry. A survey experiment with opposition elites demonstrates its negative effect on political ambition, while data on candidate backgrounds indicate a decline in opposition quality, particularly the share of candidates in high-quality state-dependent occupations. The findings highlight the key role of coercive economic retaliation in preventing successful opposition challenge during democratic decline.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Hanna Folsz is a 6th-year PhD Candidate in Political Science at Stanford University and a Pre-Doctoral Fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. Her research examines the electoral challenges and opportunities in countering democratic decline. Her dissertation develops a theory of “opposition traps” to explain why opposition parties often struggle to challenge authoritarian dominant parties in autocratizing regimes, and why electoral turnover frequently emerges from new opposition formations. She brings evidence from Hungary’s autocratization since 2010 using a multi-method approach that combines original large-N datasets, text data, elite and mass surveys, and qualitative research.

Folsz grew up in Budapest, Hungary, and completed a B.A. in Economics and Politics at Durham University and an MSc in Political Science and Political Economy at the London School of Economics. In addition to English and Hungarian, she speaks Polish, Spanish, French, and German. She co-organizes the East European Politics Graduate Workshop (EEPGW) and is a member of the Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab (PovGov) and the Democracy and Polarization Lab (DPL) at Stanford.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to Room E-008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

This seminar will present research featured in Killian Clarke's recently published book, Return of Tyranny: Why Counterrevolutions Emerge and Succeed. Why do some revolutions fail and succumb to counterrevolutions, whereas others go on to establish durable rule? This talk answers these questions, marshalling original data on counterrevolutions worldwide since 1900 and new evidence from the reversal of Egypt's 2011 revolution. It will lay out the book's movement-centric argument, which emphasizes the strategies revolutionary leaders embrace both during their opposition campaigns and after they seize power. Movements that wage violent resistance and espouse radical ideologies establish regimes that are very difficult to overthrow. By contrast, democratic revolutions like Egypt's are more vulnerable, though the talk will also lay out a path by which they too can avoid counterrevolution. In an era of resurgent authoritarianism worldwide, this talk will shed light on one particularly violent form of reactionary politics.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Killian Clarke is an Assistant Professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His research focuses on protest, revolution, authoritarianism, and democratization, with a regional focus on the Middle East. He is the author of Return of Tyranny: Why Counterrevolutions Emerge and Succeed (Cambridge University Press), as well as peer-reviewed articles in the American Political Science Review, Annual Review of Political Science, British Journal of Political Science, and World Politics. He received his PhD in Politics from Princeton University.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to the William J. Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person.