How do non-belligerent societies view the return of large-scale conflict to Europe? Among European countries, with their different historical ties to Russia and lived experiences of conflict, this article examines how the public in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia—two former Yugoslav republics marked by war in the 1990s—perceives the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war that is still ongoing as of May 2026.

Prior to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the most recent large-scale wars in Europe took place in the western Balkans. How do citizens of these countries perceive this new war? Does it raise concerns of renewed conflict within their own borders? Using original survey data collected in the spring of 2024, we assess the reaction in each country to headlines from the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Over half of the respondents in both countries agree that the current war reminds them of events in their own countries.

When asked to reflect on the conflict, they comment on its geopolitical underpinnings and the human costs of violence. Concerns of renewed local conflict are generally low, though some segments of the population fear being drawn into the Russia–Ukraine war directly. Altogether, we find that appraisals of war among the public are not uniform and that they are significantly shaped by ethnic identity and political alignment.