Democracy
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A growing literature examines democratic backsliding, but there is little consensus on when, where, and why it occurs. Reviewing more than 100 recent articles and working papers, this research note argues that inattention to the measurement of backsliding and the underlying concept of democracy drives this disagreement. We propose three remedies. First, we outline several questions that help researchers navigate common measurement challenges. Second, we argue that conceptual confusion around backsliding is driven in large part by inconsistent definitions of democracy. We show how outlining a comprehensive concept of democracy enables researchers to better account for the diversity of instances of democratic backsliding. Our third contribution is drawing attention to a previously overlooked form of backsliding: when governments lose the effective power to govern or voters and elites increasingly disagree about truths and facts. The research note urges scholars to pay closer attention to the conceptualization and measurement of backsliding prior to empirical analysis.

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A growing literature examines democratic backsliding, but there is little consensus on when, where, and why it occurs.

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Democratization
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Hans Lueders
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About the Seminar: On January 6, 2021, the U. S. Capitol was attacked as Congress certified the presidential election results. On the anniversary of this historic event, join Hakeem Jefferson and Didi Kuo for a discussion of January 6th’s impact on American politics, violence and election legitimacy, and the ongoing crisis of democracy.

 

About the Speaker: 

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Hakeem Jefferson
Hakeem Jefferson is an assistant professor of political science at Stanford University where he also is a faculty affiliate with the Center for Comparative Studies in Race and Ethnicity and the Stanford Center for American Democracy. He received his PhD in political science from the University of Michigan and a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science and African American Studies from the University of South Carolina.

His research focuses primarily on the role identity plays in structuring political attitudes and behaviors in the U.S. He is especially interested in understanding how stigma shapes the politics of Black Americans, particularly as it relates to group members’ support for racialized punitive social policies. In other research projects, Hakeem examines the psychological and social roots of the racial divide in Americans’ reactions to officer-involved shootings and work to evaluate the meaningfulness of key political concepts, like ideological identification, among Black Americans.

Hakeem’s dissertation, "Policing Norms: Punishment and the Politics of Respectability Among Black Americans," was a co-winner of the 2020 Best Dissertation Award from the Political Psychology Section of the American Political Science Association.

Related: 

Statement from CDDRL Leadership on the Events of Jan. 6

January 6 and the Crisis of American Democracy

Online, via Zoom

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Assistant Professor, Political Science
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Hakeem Jefferson is an assistant professor of political science at Stanford University where he is also a faculty affiliate with the Center for Comparative Studies in Race and Ethnicity and the Stanford Center for American Democracy. During the 2021-22 academic year he was also the SAGE Sara Miller McCune Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences.

Hakeem’s work focuses primarily on the role identity plays in structuring political attitudes and behaviors in the U.S. His in-progress book project builds on his award-winning dissertation to consider how Black Americans come to support punitive social policies that target members of their racial group.

In other projects, Hakeem examines the causes of the racial divide in Americans’ reactions to officer-involved shootings; works to evaluate the meaningfulness of key political concepts, like ideological identification among Black Americans; and considers how white Americans navigate an identity that many within the group perceive as increasingly stigmatized. In these and other projects, Hakeem sets out to showcase and clarify the important and complex ways that identity matters across all domains of American life.

A public-facing, justice-oriented scholar, Hakeem is an academic contributor at FiveThirtyEight and his writings and commentary have been featured in places like the New York Times, The Washington Post, NPR, and other major outlets. He is also active on Twitter, and you can follow him @hakeemjefferson.

CDDRL Affiliated Faculty
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Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford University

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Stanford, CA 94305

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Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
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Didi Kuo is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University. She is a scholar of comparative politics with a focus on democratization, corruption and clientelism, political parties and institutions, and political reform. She is the author of The Great Retreat: How Political Parties Should Behave and Why They Don’t (Oxford University Press) and Clientelism, Capitalism, and Democracy: the rise of programmatic politics in the United States and Britain (Cambridge University Press, 2018).

She has been at Stanford since 2013 as the manager of the Program on American Democracy in Comparative Perspective and is co-director of the Fisher Family Honors Program at CDDRL. She was an Eric and Wendy Schmidt Fellow at New America and is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She received a PhD in political science from Harvard University, an MSc in Economic and Social History from Oxford University, where she studied as a Marshall Scholar, and a BA from Emory University.

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The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University is pleased to announce that Larry Diamond has been named the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at FSI.

The new position was made possible by a generous gift from the Mosbacher family Nancy, '76, Bruce, '76, JD '79, Emily (Harvard ’16), and Jack, '12 – in recognition of Diamond’s distinguished contributions as a researcher, teacher and mentor.

“As a teacher, scholar, and person, Larry Diamond is an embodiment of Stanford’s highest ideals,” said Bruce Mosbacher. “Our family is honored beyond measure to support Professor Diamond’s vital work in the years to come, and we are gratified that Larry’s impact and legacy now have a permanent home at Stanford University."

Founded 19 years ago, CDDRL is an interdisciplinary center for research on development in all of its dimensions: political, economic, social, and legal, and the ways in which these different dimensions interact with one another. The center bridges the worlds of scholarship and practice to understand and foster the conditions for effective representative governance, promote balanced and sustainable economic growth, and establish the rule of law. Diamond is one of the center’s original founders, and was CDDRL’s director from 2008-2014.

Larry Diamond is truly an inspiration. I can think of no better way to celebrate this extraordinary person than with an extraordinary honor like the Mosbacher Senior Fellowship in Global Democracy.
Kathryn Stoner
Mosbacher Director of CDDRL and FSI Senior Fellow

“Larry Diamond has no equal in the field of democracy studies. He is a giant not only in scholarship regarding how democracies rise, function and sometimes fail, he has long applied his knowledge to improve the practice of democracy through his work with international organizations and here at Stanford.” said Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of CDDRL and FSI Senior Fellow. She added that “Larry Diamond is truly an inspiration. I can think of no better way to celebrate this extraordinary person than with an extraordinary honor like the Mosbacher Senior Fellowship in Global Democracy. I am so grateful to the Mosbacher family for all that they have done for CDDRL, and for this especially wonderful tribute to Larry’s life and work.”

Diamond has served on the Stanford faculty since 1985. He is a senior fellow at FSI and the Hoover Institution and holds courtesy appointments in the departments of political science and sociology. He has taught and mentored thousands of students, including those in the Fisher Family Honors Program at CDDRL, FSI’s Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy (MIP) program, and democracy activists from around the world through CDDRL’s Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program, among others at Stanford. Among his many accolades, Larry received the Richard W. Lyman Award in 2013 for his service and generosity to Stanford alumni, as well as the Dinkelspiel Award in 2007 for excellence in teaching and mentoring Stanford undergraduates.

Diamond has also been an institution-builder both inside and outside of Stanford, having made contributions not only to CDDRL and Stanford’s Haas Center for Public Service (where he served as co-director from 2010-2016) but also to the National Endowment for Democracy where he serves as senior consultant to the International Forum for Democratic Studies. He has worked to shape public policy in many ways, from working for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, to campaigning more recently on behalf of ranked-choice voting initiatives in a variety of American states and cities.

“What Larry presciently labeled a ‘democratic recession’ a decade ago has metastasized into a very dark period for global politics,” said Michael McFaul, the director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “This newly endowed position will ensure FSI continues to be at the cutting edge of research, policy impact and education in the field of global democracy for many years to come.”

During his career of service to FSI and Stanford, Diamond has authored books like The Spirit of Democracy and Ill Winds, countless articles and edited books on democracy in various country and regional settings. He also served as a founding editor of The Journal of Democracy, which has become the most important academic source for writing on the subject.

“I am deeply honored by this generous gift from the Mosbacher family,” said Diamond. “Their extraordinary support will enable us to sustain and deepen our study of global democracy during an era when it faces its greatest challenge in decades. Working closely with brilliant Stanford colleagues, students and visitors is a great privilege, and I look forward to advancing the field well into the future.”

Learn More About Larry Diamond's Research

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Larry Diamond

Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
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Climate change activists march down a street carrying banners and signs.
Q&As

Together For Our Planet: Americans are More Aligned on Taking Action on Climate Change than Expected

New data from the Center for Deliberative Democracy suggests that when given the opportunity to discuss climate change in a substantive way, the majority of Americans are open to taking proactive measures to address the global climate crisis.
Together For Our Planet: Americans are More Aligned on Taking Action on Climate Change than Expected
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What Protests For Racial Justice Tell Us About U.S. Democracy

American democracy is facing its most serious challenge in decades, says Larry Diamond on the World Class Podcast. But there are signs of hope.
What Protests For Racial Justice Tell Us About U.S. Democracy
Trump supporters at the Capitol Building
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New Administration Inherits a Democracy in Crisis, Explains FSI Panel

Scholars say there is much work to be done to restore confidence in democracy in America and around the world.
New Administration Inherits a Democracy in Crisis, Explains FSI Panel
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Larry Diamond, center, with the Mosbacher family - Nancy, Bruce, Emily and Jack.
Larry Diamond, center, with the Mosbacher family. Photo: Rod Searcey
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CDDRL’s Larry Diamond, a world-renowned expert on comparative democracy, is recognized for a career of impact on students, policymakers and democratic activists around the world.

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About the Session: Join Dinsha Mistree, Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution and in the Rule of Law Program at Stanford Law School, to discuss "The Troubling State of India's Democracy," a volume he is co-editing with Sumit Ganguly and Larry Diamond.

 

 

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Dinsha Mistree
About the Speaker: Dinsha Mistree is a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution and in the Rule of Law Program at Stanford Law School. Dr. Mistree studies the relationship between governance and economic growth in developing countries. His scholarship concentrates on the political economy of legal systems, public administration, and education policy, with a special focus on India. Recent and forthcoming scholarship has appeared or is forthcoming at Stanford Law Review, Social Science and Medicine, Public Administration Review, and Comparative Politics. Dr. Mistree holds a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Politics from Princeton University, along with an S.M. and an S.B. from MIT. He was previously a CDDRL postdoc (2015-16).

Online, via Zoom

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Dinsha Mistree is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he manages the Program on Strengthening US-Indian Relations. He is also a research fellow in the Rule of Law Program at Stanford Law School and an affiliated scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. Dr. Mistree studies the relationship between governance and economic growth in developing countries. His scholarship concentrates on the political economy of legal systems, public administration, and education policy, with a regional focus on India. He holds a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Politics from Princeton University, with an S.M. and an S.B. from MIT. He previously held a postdoctoral fellowship at CDDRL and was a visiting scholar at IIM-Ahmedabad.

Research Fellow, Hoover Institution
Research Fellow, Rule of Law (SLS)
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CDDRL Postdoctoral Scholar, 2015-16
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For decades, the Soviet Union was an authoritarian force in a polarized world. After the political transitions of the 1990s, democracy seemed to finally prevail; however, thirty years later it is in peril across the globe as several traditionally democratic countries have fallen victim to authoritarian backsliding.

The political landscape changed forever on December 1, 1991, when Ukraine held a referendum on its independence from the Soviet Union, garnering overwhelming support from tens of millions of its citizens. This was the pivotal moment that paved the way for the signing of the Belavezha Accords on December 8, 1991, and the final collapse of the USSR.

On the 30th anniversary of this historic event, join us to examine and rethink Ukraine's past and plan for its future as a democratic stronghold in Eastern Europe.

Plus, enjoy a special screening of the docuseries COLLAPSE: How Ukrainians Destroyed the Evil Empire, followed by a conversation with the filmmakers.
 

CONFERENCE AGENDA


10:15 - 11:00 am – Registration open for in-person attendees

11:00 - 11:10 am – Opening Remarks:

  • Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Stanford University
  • Oleksiy Honcharuk, Former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Bernard and Susan Liautaud Visiting Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

11:10 am - 12:45 pm – Panel 1: The Soviet Collapse and the Collapse of Democratic Promise (recording)

  • Moderator: Vitali Shkliarov, Political analyst, Belarusian activist, and film director
  • Marta Dyczok, Associate Professor (History and Political Science), Western University
  • Rose Gottemoeller, Steven C. Házy Lecturer at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, and Former Deputy Secretary General of NATO
  • Norman Naimark, Robert & Florence McDonnell Professor of E. European Studies, and Senior Fellow, by courtesy, at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University
  • Serhiy Plokhiy, Mykhailo S. Hrushevs'kyi Professor of Ukrainian History and Director of the Ukrainian Research Institute, Harvard University

12:45 - 2:00 pm – Lunch Break (boxed lunches will be served)

2:00 - 3:30 pm – Panel 2: How Did Ukraine Transition into a Democracy? (recording)

  • Moderator: Myroslava GongadzeChief, Ukrainian Service, Voice of America
  • Francis Fukuyama, Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, Stanford University
  • Oleksiy Honcharuk, Former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Bernard and Susan Liautaud Visiting Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
  • Steven Pifer, Former US Ambassador to Ukraine, William J. Perry Research Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University
  • Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Stanford University

3:30 - 4:00 pm – Break

4:00 - 6:00 pm – Screening of the docuseries COLLAPSE: How Ukrainians Destroyed the Evil Empire

COLLAPSE is a seven-episode docuseries and political thriller that explores the decay of the Soviet Union in its last months. For the first time on screen, the Ukrainian perspective was brought to the global narrative, as well as recently unclassified details from the CIA and KGB archives. The series was produced by Suspilne, a Ukrainian public broadcaster.

6:00 - 7:00 pm – Q&A with Filmmakers (recording)

  • Moderator: Yaroslav LodyginFilm director, scriptwriter, and Board Member of Ukrainian Public Broadcasting Company, producer of "COLLAPSE"
  • Marta Dyczok, Associate Professor (History and Political Science), Western University
  • Serhiy Plokhiy, Mykhailo S. Hrushevs'kyi Professor of Ukrainian History and Director of the Ukrainian Research Institute, Harvard University
  • Oleksandr Zinchenko, "COLLAPSE" screenwriter and historian
     

Hybrid event: Online via Zoom, and in-person in Bechtel Conference Center

Conferences
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This special issue demonstrates that authoritarian legislatures often matter for their countries’ policy processes in myriad ways, despite the fact that their influence is constrained by the nature of authoritarian politics. In all four of the special issue’s articles, the authors use novel, country-specific data to provide detailed analysis of legislature activity in authoritarian policy processes. First, as illustrated by Noble’s (2018) writing on Russia and Lü et al.’s (2018) writing on China, legislators may shape major policy decisions through their interactions with executive branch officials or their participation in elite coalitions, even when they remain relatively weak and broader outcomes are rarely in doubt. Second, as shown by Noble (2018), Lü et al. (2018), and Truex (2018), policy processes in these institutions are often defined by competing regime actors who hold divergent preferences, and as such, these processes can be messy and inefficient, contrary to popular notions of authoritarian policy making. And third, as demonstrated by Schuler (2018) through his study of Vietnam, legislatures may be permitted to engage in open debate on delegated policy issues, with the goal of holding government officials accountable and shaping the public’s attributions of blame for poor performance.

Understanding how policies are made in these contexts is important in its own right, and the authors’ efforts to open the blackbox of authoritarian policy making reflects a useful contribution of the articles. In this conclusion, we build on the authors’ insights to consider the special issue’s broader implications for the literature on authoritarian rule. We first note how the articles highlight the complexity of policy processes in these political systems, despite the capacity of most autocrats to dominate decision-making in many circumstances. Next, we discuss how the articles demonstrate the utility of legislatures for improving autocrats’ abilities to share power and control the public more effectively, thereby reinforcing the durability of authoritarian regimes. We then consider briefly which legislators and policy issues are more active in these legislatures, before concluding with a discussion of generalizability and suggestions for future research.

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Comparative Political Studies
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Beatriz Magaloni
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9
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Russia’s democratic collapse must rank as one of the most consequential setbacks among the third and fourth waves of democratization. A comprehensive explanation for Russia’s transition from autocracy and back again counts on both structure and agency, but leans toward agency. Structurally, Russia was forced to navigate democratic and market reforms while managing the dissolution of the Soviet empire. Yet the agency of individual actors may have played a more decisive role: It was Mikhail Gorbachev, not weakening state institutions or a failing command economy, who triggered regime change in the Soviet Union. Following Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin made decisions that undermined democratic consolidation and to some extent paved the way for future autocratic restoration. The most notable of these was Yeltsin’s naming of Vladimir Putin as his successor. While Russians may be shaped by historical legacies, immutable cultural norms, or static institutions, they are not trapped forever by them. If some Russians in the past made decisions that produced autocracy, others in the future might make choices that engender democracy.

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Journal of Democracy
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Michael A. McFaul
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Number 4
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What happens when authoritarian populist parties lose elections despite a tilted playing field? Postelection capture might be their new tool: Confronted with losses in the 2016 and 2019 local elections, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) set about undoing the results by dismissing over 150 democratically elected mayors—mostly in predominantly Kurdish cities—and replaced them with state-appointed trustees or kayyums. These political captures expand the AKP’s patronage networks through what we call forced clientelism and further polarization, thereby undermining the formation of a stronger prodemocratic coalition.

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Journal of Democracy
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Ayça Alemdaroğlu
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Number 4
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Scholars have long argued that leaders manipulate foreign policy, sometimes even initiating wars in order to enhance their domestic political position. But diversionary wars are relatively rare given the high costs of conflict. In this project, we examine data from major Syrian daily newspapers over a 30-year period (1987–2018) to explore how autocratic regimes use diversionary rhetoric. We find that before the 2011 Arab Uprisings, Syria's state-controlled media concentrated on Israel as a security and political threat. Emphasis on Israel as a diversionary threat decreased during peace negotiations between Syria and Israel, probably in a bid to prepare the Syrian public for normalization of bilateral relations. After 2011, scrutiny of Israel—and other long-standing topics of state discourse—was displaced by discussion of foreign plots and conspiracies against the Syrian state. Our analysis illustrates how authoritarian regimes make use of diversionary strategies as well as how political shocks generate discontinuities in authoritarian rhetoric.

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Political Science Research and Methods
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Lisa Blaydes
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Issue 4
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Bread and Freedom book cover
Egypt’s 2011 uprising is widely held to be a case of either failed democratic transition or inauthentic revolution. Scholars of democratic transitions blame Egypt’s bickering civilian politicians for failing to do the hard work of negotiated compromise to build an inclusive democracy. Scholars of revolution doubt that Egypt’s uprising counts as a revolution, since military generals did not cede the reins after Hosni Mubarak’s fall, and ultimately reconquered the state with their July 2013 coup. But what if instead of viewing Egypt as a uniform failure, we mine it for ideas on how to refresh our concepts of democracy and revolution? In this talk, based on her new book Bread and Freedom, Egypt’s Revolutionary Situation, Mona El-Ghobashy presents an interpretation of Egypt’s 2011 uprising that brings out some lost connections between democracy and revolution.
 

Register Now

 

SPEAKER BIO

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Mona El-Ghobashy
Mona El-Ghobashy is a scholar of the sociology and history of politics in Egypt, and the broader Middle East and North Africa. She is a Clinical Assistant Professor at Liberal Studies at New York University. Her research focuses on the dynamics of political contestation in Egypt before and after the 2011 uprising. Her first book, Bread and Freedom: Egypt’s Revolutionary Situation, was published by Stanford University Press in July 2021.

This event is co-sponsored by the "Ten Years on Project" and the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies at Stanford University.

Online, via Zoom: REGISTER

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