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Khushmita Dhabhai
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CDDRL Visiting Scholar Michael Albertus’s Research Seminar presentation, “Winning Under Electoral Authoritarianism: Turning Out the ‘Right’ Votes in Venezuela,” examined how electoral infrastructure can become a subtle but powerful tool of authoritarian political control. The presentation, based on joint work with Felipe Baritto and Dany Jaimovich, focused on Venezuela and asked whether the expansion of polling centers under Chávez and Maduro was simply a response to demographic demand or whether it was politically targeted to benefit the ruling coalition.

The central puzzle of the presentation was that Venezuela substantially expanded its electoral infrastructure between 2000 and 2024, with the number of polling centers increasing by about 70 percent, even though population growth was much smaller. Albertus situated this puzzle within the broader literature on competitive authoritarianism, where regimes often maintain formally competitive elections but tilt the playing field through institutional design, state resources, media control, opposition harassment, and selective manipulation. His key contribution was to show that the organization of voting infrastructure itself may belong on this “menu of manipulation.”

The empirical strategy was built around a geocoded dataset of voting centers across Venezuelan election periods. The authors identified “new” polling centers and used stable polling centers to construct electoral Voronoi polygons, which served as local catchment areas. This allowed them to ask whether areas with higher prior support for Chavismo were more likely to receive new voting centers in later periods. Their baseline models used polygon and election-period fixed effects, with controls such as population, and clustered standard errors by municipality.

The main result was that lagged regime support predicted the creation of new polling centers. A 10-percentage-point increase in regime support was associated with roughly a 10-percentage-point increase in the probability of receiving a new polling center relative to the sample mean. Areas in the top quartile of regime support were about 30 percent more likely to receive a new center. These effects were strongest in urban areas and became larger as elections tightened and regime support weakened.

Albertus also presented evidence that new polling centers were not politically neutral spaces. Many carried regime-aligned names and ideological language, including terms associated with Bolivarianism, Chávez, communes, popular power, and revolutionary programs. This suggested that polling centers were not only administrative sites but also spaces of political embedding.

The presentation then turned to consequences. New polling centers were associated with higher turnout, especially in areas already supportive of the regime. They were also linked to smaller polling centers and more single-table centers, which may have made voter monitoring easier. In the 2024 election, the opposition's collection of actas (vote tabulations) was less likely in polygons where new polling stations had previously been established, suggesting that infrastructure expansion may have weakened the opposition's monitoring capacity.

Overall, the presentation argued that authoritarian regimes do not always need to rely on blatant fraud or overt suppression. They can instead selectively expand access, making voting easier for supporters while improving their own capacity for mobilization and monitoring. The project’s broader significance lies in showing how seemingly technical decisions about election administration can have deeply political effects.

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Michael Albertus presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on May 14, 2026.
Michael Albertus presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on May 14, 2026.
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Michael Albertus argues electoral infrastructure should be considered part of the broader “menu of manipulation” used by authoritarian regimes.

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In Brief
  • Michael Albertus presented research examining how Venezuela’s expansion of polling centers may have benefited areas with stronger support for the ruling regime.
  • The study found that new polling centers were associated with higher turnout in pro-regime areas and may have strengthened voter monitoring capacity.
  • Findings suggest electoral infrastructure can function as a subtle form of political manipulation within competitive authoritarian systems.
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Venezuela

You are invited to a webinar examining how opposition actors navigated electoral politics under conditions of increasing authoritarian consolidation in Venezuela between 2007 and 2013. Focusing on a period marked by both competitive elections and accelerating institutional erosion, the discussion explores how electoral arenas became sites of resistance, coordination, and strategic adaptation under a popular autocrat.

At the center of the discussion are five key milestones:

  • The 2007 Constitutional Referendum
  • The creation of the opposition coalition Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) in 2008
  • Subsequent participation and coordination across several local, regional, legislative, and presidential elections
  • The opposition primary elections of 2010–2011
  • The 2012–2013 presidential cycle


Together, these moments illustrate how electoral processes were used not only for contestation, but also for coordination, organizational strengthening and political signaling under increasingly uneven conditions.

The webinar advances three core analytical insights. First, opposition strategy during this period reflects a process of pro-democratic learning. The defeat of the constitutional reform in 2007, followed by the institutionalization of coordination through the MUD and the adoption of primary elections, reveals an evolution toward more unified and strategically coherent forms of engagement.

Second, elections in hybrid regimes can function as tools for containing authoritarian advances. These milestones demonstrate how opposition actors can use electoral arenas to build unity, mobilize constituencies, and impose constraints—however partial—on authoritarian consolidation.

Finally, the Venezuelan case highlights pro-authoritarian learning by the regime. As opposition actors improved coordination and electoral competitiveness, incumbents adapted in turn—deploying institutional, legal, and coercive mechanisms to manage and limit opposition gains. This dynamic underscores the iterative nature of strategic interaction between authoritarian regimes and their challengers.

Bringing together political leaders, practitioners and scholars with direct experience of these processes, the conversation will reflect on the strategic dilemmas of participation, coordination and resistance under authoritarian constraints. The discussion will also consider the broader implications of these lessons for contemporary cases of democratic backsliding.
 

More About the Speakers:
 

  • Isabella Picón (Moderator) is a Ph.D. student in political science at George Washington University, specializing in comparative politics and international relations. Her research examines democratization, civil resistance, and opposition strategies under authoritarian regimes. She is a co-founder of civic initiatives that promote nonviolent action and electoral participation as tools for democratic resistance, including Labo Ciudadano and Toma El Control. She has been a fellow at the Harvard Nonviolent Action Lab and at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. She has a bachelor’s degree from Northwestern University and an M.Sc. from the London School of Economics.
  • Paola Bautista de Alemán is a Venezuelan political scientist, journalist, and opposition leader. A national board member of the Primero Justicia party and director of the Institute of Political Studies FORMA, she has dedicated her career to analyzing authoritarianism and fostering political capacity-building in Venezuela. She is currently in exile, serving as a Visiting Fellow at the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame, where her research centers on political resilience and democracy under authoritarian pressure. She has a bachelor’s degree in social communication from Universidad Católica Andrés Bello in Venezuela and a Ph.D. in political science from Rostock University in Germany.
  • Julio Borges is a Venezuelan lawyer, opposition leader, and former president of the National Assembly. He co-founded the opposition party Primero Justicia and served as president of the National Assembly in 2017. In exile since 2017, he has faced political persecution, arrest warrants, and physical attacks for his opposition to the Maduro regime, while continuing to advocate for constitutional order and a united political front to resist authoritarianism in Venezuela. He holds a law degree from Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, a master’s degree in philosophy from Boston College, a public policy degree from the University of Oxford, and a Ph.D. in Philosophy from Universidad Santo Tomás in Valencia, Spain.
  • Freddy Guevara is a Venezuelan politician and democracy advocate who served as the first vice president of the National Assembly. A co-founder of the Voluntad Popular party, he has endured years of political persecution, imprisonment, and exile for his leadership in nonviolent civil resistance against the Maduro regime. He is currently a Democracy Fellow at the Ash Center and a researcher with the Nonviolent Action Lab, focusing on pro-democracy movements worldwide. He holds a bachelor’s degree in social communications from Universidad Católica Andrés Bello in Venezuela and a master’s in public administration from Harvard Kennedy School, where he was an Edward S. Mason Fellow.
  • José Gustavo Arocha is a national security expert, a senior Fellow at the Center for a Secure Free Society, and a retired Lieutenant Colonel of the Venezuelan Army. His work focuses on civil-military relations, democratic erosion, and authoritarian consolidation in Latin America. A first-hand witness to the closing of democratic space in Venezuela between 2007 and 2012, he holds a master’s in public administration from Harvard Kennedy School, where he was an Edward S. Mason Fellow.
  • Roberto Picón is a Venezuelan systems engineer and electoral expert who has played a significant role in efforts to improve election integrity. He served as a rector of the National Electoral Council (CNE) from 2021 to 2023, where he was known for publicly challenging irregularities and advocating for fairer processes. Previously, his work with the opposition coalition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) led to his detention as a prisoner of conscience in 2017. He has a bachelor’s degree in systems engineering from Universidad Metropolitana in Caracas.
     

About the Series


Lessons from Global Democratic Resistance is a public panel series that brings together frontline activists, civic leaders, institutional actors, and field‑informed scholars to examine how democratic actors have resisted, responded to, and learned from democratic backsliding across countries. The series aims to identify practical lessons and comparative insights for those defending democracy today and is organized by the Ash Center for Democratic Governance at the Harvard Kennedy School in collaboration with the Cornell Center on Global Democracy; Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania; the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame; the Democratic Futures Project at the University of Virginia; Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law; and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
 

Event Details


This event is online only, and registration is required. A recording will be made available after the event’s conclusion. The information collected in the registration form is for internal use only and will not be shared externally.

The Ash Center encourages individuals with disabilities to participate in its events. Should you wish to enquire about an accommodation, please contact our events team at info@ash.harvard.edu prior to the event.

Online via Zoom. Registration is required.

For questions, please contact info@ash.harvard.edu.

You are invited to a webinar examining how opposition actors navigated electoral politics under conditions of increasing authoritarian consolidation in Venezuela between 2007 and 2013.

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4.28 DAL Event

"Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela" is a four-part webinar series hosted by CDDRL's Democracy Action Lab that examines Venezuela’s uncertain transition to democracy through the political, economic, security, and justice-related challenges that will ultimately determine its success. Moving beyond abstract calls for change, the series will offer a practical, sequenced analysis of what a democratic opening in Venezuela would realistically require, drawing on comparative experiences from other post-authoritarian transitions.

Venezuela’s democratic future will be shaped not only by political transitions, but by how the country manages its most defining structural feature: vast natural resource wealth. Oil has historically been both a source of opportunity and a driver of institutional fragility, contributing to cycles of centralization, rent-seeking, and democratic erosion. As Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo — former oil minister of Venezuela and one of the architects of OPEC — famously warned, petroleum could become “the devil’s excrement,” bringing with it corruption, waste, and institutional decay.

As Venezuela looks ahead to a potential — yet elusive — democratic opening, a central question emerges: can the country escape the historical trap of resource dependence and build a model in which oil supports — not undermines — shared prosperity and democracy?

This session brings together leading thinkers on political economy, development, and global energy to explore how Venezuela can transform its resource wealth into a foundation for democratic stability, economic diversification, and shared prosperity.

SPEAKERS

  • Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University
    • Development Strategy
  • Francis Fukuyama, Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy
    • Challenges of State-Building and Institutional Development
  • Terry Lynn Karl, Gildred Professor of Latin American Studies, Professor of Political Science, William and Gretchen Kimball University Fellow & Senior Research Scholar (by courtesy) of FSI/CDDRL, Stanford
    • Political Constraint – Institutional Design
       

MODERATOR

 Héctor Fuentes, Visiting Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University

Héctor Fuentes
Héctor Fuentes

This is a hybrid event. In-person in Goldman Conference Room, Encina Hall East, 4th floor - E409; Livestream via Zoom. Registration required.

Paul Collier Panelist

Department of Political Science
Encina Hall
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6044

(650) 724-4166 (650) 724-2996
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Professor of Political Science
Gildred Professor of Latin American Studies
William and Gretchen Kimball University Fellow
Senior Research Scholar (by courtesty) of FSI/CDDRL
terrykarl.png MA, PhD

Professor Karl has published widely on comparative politics and international relations, with special emphasis on the politics of oil-exporting countries, transitions to democracy, problems of inequality, the global politics of human rights, and the resolution of civil wars. Her works on oil, human rights and democracy include The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States (University of California Press, 1998), honored as one of the two best books on Latin America by the Latin American Studies Association, the Bottom of the Barrel: Africa's Oil Boom and the Poor (2004 with Ian Gary), the forthcoming New and Old Oil Wars (with Mary Kaldor and Yahia Said), and the forthcoming Overcoming the Resource Curse (with Joseph Stiglitz, Jeffrey Sachs et al). She has also co-authored Limits of Competition (MIT Press, 1996), winner of the Twelve Stars Environmental Prize from the European Community. Karl has published extensively on comparative democratization, ending civil wars in Central America, and political economy. She has conducted field research throughout Latin America, West Africa and Eastern Europe. Her work has been translated into 15 languages.

Karl has a strong interest in U.S. foreign policy and has prepared expert testimony for the U.S. Congress, the Supreme Court, and the United Nations. She served as an advisor to chief U.N. peace negotiators in El Salvador and Guatemala and monitored elections for the United Nations. She accompanied numerous congressional delegations to Central America, lectured frequently before officials of the Department of State, Defense, and the Agency for International Development, and served as an adviser to the Chairman of the House Sub-Committee on Western Hemisphere Affairs of the United States Congress. Karl appears frequently in national and local media. Her most recent opinion piece was published in 25 countries.

Karl has been an expert witness in major human rights and war crimes trials in the United States that have set important legal precedents, most notably the first jury verdict in U.S. history against military commanders for murder and torture under the doctrine of command responsibility and the first jury verdict in U.S. history finding commanders responsible for "crimes against humanity" under the doctrine of command responsibility. In January 2006, her testimony formed the basis for a landmark victory for human rights on the statute of limitations issue. Her testimonies regarding political asylum have been presented to the U.S. Supreme Court and U.S. Circuit courts. She has written over 250 affidavits for political asylum, and she has prepared testimony for the U.S. Attorney General on the extension of temporary protected status for Salvadorans in the United States and the conditions of unaccompanied minors in U.S. custody. As a result of her human rights work, she received the Doctor of Humane Letters, honoris causa from the University of San Francisco in 2005.

Professor Karl has been recognized for "exceptional teaching throughout her career," resulting in her appointment as the William R. and Gretchen Kimball University Fellowship. She has also won the Dean's Award for Excellence in Teaching (1989), the Allan V. Cox Medal for Faculty Excellence Fostering Undergraduate Research (1994), and the Walter J. Gores Award for Excellence in Graduate and Undergraduate Teaching (1997), the University's highest academic prize. Karl served as director of Stanford's Center for Latin American Studies from 1990-2001, was praised by the president of Stanford for elevating the Center for Latin American Studies to "unprecedented levels of intelligent, dynamic, cross-disciplinary activity and public service in literature, arts, social sciences, and professions." In 1997 she was awarded the Rio Branco Prize by the President of Brazil, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, in recognition for her service in fostering academic relations between the United States and Latin America.

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Terry Lynn Karl Panelist

Encina Hall, C148
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305

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Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy
Research Affiliate at The Europe Center
Professor by Courtesy, Department of Political Science
yff-2021-14290_6500x4500_square.jpg

Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). He is also Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and a professor (by courtesy) of Political Science.

Dr. Fukuyama has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man, has appeared in over twenty foreign editions. His book In the Realm of the Last Man: A Memoir will be published in fall 2026.

Francis Fukuyama received his B.A. from Cornell University in classics, and his Ph.D. from Harvard in Political Science. He was a member of the Political Science Department of the RAND Corporation, and of the Policy Planning Staff of the US Department of State. From 1996-2000 he was Omer L. and Nancy Hirst Professor of Public Policy at the School of Public Policy at George Mason University, and from 2001-2010 he was Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. He served as a member of the President’s Council on Bioethics from 2001-2004. He is editor-in-chief of American Purpose, an online journal.

Dr. Fukuyama holds honorary doctorates from Connecticut College, Doane College, Doshisha University (Japan), Kansai University (Japan), Aarhus University (Denmark), the Pardee Rand Graduate School, and Adam Mickiewicz University (Poland). He is a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Rand Corporation, the Board of Trustees of Freedom House, and the Board of the Volcker Alliance. He is a fellow of the National Academy for Public Administration, a member of the American Political Science Association, and of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is married to Laura Holmgren and has three children.

(October 2025)

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Francis Fukuyama Panelist
Panel Discussions

Join us for the final event in a four-part webinar series hosted by the Democracy Action Lab — "Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela." Tuesday, April 28, 10:00 - 11:15 am PT.

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DAL Webinar 3.6.26

"Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela" is a four-part webinar series hosted by CDDRL's Democracy Action Lab that examines Venezuela’s uncertain transition to democracy through the political, economic, security, and justice-related challenges that will ultimately determine its success. Moving beyond abstract calls for change, the series will offer a practical, sequenced analysis of what a democratic opening in Venezuela would realistically require, drawing on comparative experiences from other post-authoritarian transitions.

Venezuela stands at a critical juncture. Following Nicolás Maduro's removal in January 2026, the question facing Venezuelan democratic actors and international partners is no longer whether a transition should occur, but how it could realistically unfold and what risks may undermine it. While the first session focused on the political challenges of transition, this second conversation examines the economic foundations of democratic viability. Sustainable political change in Venezuela will depend critically on the country’s ability to stabilize its economy, restore growth, and generate tangible improvements in living conditions. At the same time, economic recovery itself is deeply conditioned by political uncertainty, institutional fragility, and governance constraints. Understanding this interaction is essential for designing realistic pathways forward.

This webinar seeks to provide a serious, policy-relevant discussion of the economic constraints shaping Venezuela’s future and the conditions under which recovery could become politically sustainable and socially inclusive. Bringing together expertise in energy economics, macroeconomic stabilization, development policy, and political economy, the session aims to inform Venezuelan actors, international partners, scholars, and practitioners with grounded and realistic insights.

SPEAKERS

  • Sary Levy-Carciente, Research Scientist, Adam Smith Center for Economic Freedom at Florida International University
    • Attracting investments and developing the non-oil economy

  • Luisa Palacios, Adjunct Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia School of International Affairs

    • Energy policy and finance 

  • Francisco J. Monaldi, Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy, Baker Institute and Director, Latin America Energy Program at Rice University
    • Oil and gas sector: requirements for a sustainable increase in production capacity
  • Moderator: Héctor Fuentes, Visiting Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University
Héctor Fuentes
Héctor Fuentes

Online via Zoom. Registration required.

Sary Levy-Carciente Panelist
Francisco J. Monaldi Panelist
Luisa Palacios Panelist
Panel Discussions

Join us for the second event in a 4-part webinar series hosted by the Democracy Action Lab — "Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela" Friday, March 6, 12:00 - 1:15 pm PT. Click to register for Zoom.

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DAL Webinar Series Venezuela

"Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela" is a four-part webinar series hosted by CDDRL's Democracy Action Lab that examines Venezuela’s uncertain transition to democracy through the political, economic, security, and justice-related challenges that will ultimately determine its success. Moving beyond abstract calls for change, the series will offer a practical, sequenced analysis of what a democratic opening in Venezuela would realistically require, drawing on comparative experiences from other post-authoritarian transitions.

Venezuela stands at a critical juncture. Following Nicolás Maduro's removal in January 2026, the question facing Venezuelan democratic actors and international partners is no longer whether a transition should occur, but how it could realistically unfold and what risks may undermine it.

This panel discussion focuses on what is arguably the most difficult dimension of any transition: reforming the security sector. Democratic transitions depend critically on the ability to transform coercive institutions so that they operate under civilian authority, respect the rule of law, and provide security to citizens rather than to political elites.

Panelists will assess practical pathways toward democratic governance, highlighting both the opportunities and the blind spots embedded in prevailing transition strategies.

SPEAKERS

  • María Ignacia Curiel, Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and Research Affiliate of the Poverty, Violence and Governance Lab at Stanford University
    • Armed political actors and regime survival strategies
       
  • Rebecca Hanson, Assistant Professor at the Center for Latin American Studies and the Department of Sociology, Criminology, and Law at the University of Florida
    • Criminal organizations and governance in illicit economies
       
  • Harold Trinkunas, Deputy Director and a Senior Research Scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University
    • Security sector reform for democracy
       
  • John Polga-Hecimovich, Associate Professor of Political Science at the U.S. Naval Academy
    • State security apparatus — the military, police, and  secret service

 

  • Moderator: Héctor Fuentes, Visiting Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University
Héctor Fuentes
Héctor Fuentes

Online via Zoom. Registration required.

Encina Hall, Suite 052
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Research Scholar
Research Manager, Democracy Action Lab
Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab Research Affiliate, 2024-25
CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow, 2023-24
maria_curiel_2024.jpg

María Ignacia Curiel is a Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and Research Affiliate of the Poverty, Violence and Governance Lab at Stanford University. Curiel is an empirical political scientist using experimental, observational, and qualitative data to study questions of violence and democratic participation, peacebuilding, and representation.

Her research primarily explores political solutions to violent conflict and the electoral participation of parties with violent origins. This work includes an in-depth empirical study of Comunes, the Colombian political party formed by the former FARC guerrilla, as well as a broader analysis of rebel party behaviors across different contexts. More recently, her research has focused on democratic mobilization and the political representation of groups affected by violence in Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.

Curiel's work has been supported by the Folke Bernadotte Academy, the Institute for Humane Studies, and the APSA Centennial Center and is published in the Journal of Politics. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and dual B.A. degrees in Economics and Political Science from New York University.

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María Ignacia Curiel Panelist
Harold Trinkunas Panelist
Rebecca Hanson Panelist
John Polga-Hecimovich Panelist
Panel Discussions

Join us for the third event in a 4-part webinar series hosted by the Democracy Action Lab — "Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela." Friday, March 13, 12:00 - 1:15 pm PT. Click to register for Zoom.

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Sunday morning, we awoke to the good news that Jesús Armas, a Venezuelan civic leader and 2022 alumnus of the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program at Stanford University's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), had been released from prison after more than a year in detention. He was forcibly disappeared and detained in Venezuela by security forces in December 2024 following the country’s stolen presidential election earlier that year. We are deeply relieved that he is now free from imprisonment in El Helicoide — a place, Jesús wrote upon his release, “that has been a symbol of torture, evil, and authoritarianism.”

Jesús is a dedicated public servant, engineer, and activist who has worked bravely with the opposition to promote peaceful democratic participation, free and fair elections, and civic unity in Venezuela. His detention occurred amid a broader wave of arrests targeting opposition organizers, journalists, and civil society actors in the country, and his case drew sustained international concern.

Reflecting on his experience, Jesús wrote that “nobody should be behind bars for thinking differently,” underscoring the principle that peaceful dissent must not be met with imprisonment.

We hope this development contributes to continued progress toward the release of all individuals unjustly detained for peaceful civic and political engagement, in Venezuela and beyond, and toward renewed respect for human dignity, fundamental rights, and the rule of law.

Read More

DAL Webinar 2.13.26
Seminars

Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela: Political Challenges and Pathways Forward

Join us for the first event in a 4-part webinar series hosted by the Democracy Action Lab — "Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela." Friday, February 13, 12:00 - 1:00 pm PT. Click to register for Zoom.
Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela: Political Challenges and Pathways Forward
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News

Venezuela After Maduro, Explained

A Democracy Action Lab panel weighed competing scenarios for Venezuela’s political future amid elite continuity, economic crisis, and international intervention.
Venezuela After Maduro, Explained
Lilian Tintori, Waleed Shawky, and Gulika Reddy
News

Confronting Repression: Strategies for Supporting Political Prisoners

A panel discussion featuring 2025 Fisher Family Summer Fellows Lilian Tintori and Waleed Shawky, along with Gulika Reddy, Director of the International Human Rights and Conflict Resolution Clinic at Stanford Law School, explored the human cost of political imprisonment, the barriers advocates face, and the strategies available to combat them.
Confronting Repression: Strategies for Supporting Political Prisoners
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Jesús Armas stands in a crowd in front of a Venezuelan flag following his release from prison, holding a t-shirt that reads "Release all political prisoners" in Spanish.
Jesús Armas stands in a crowd following his release from prison, holding a t-shirt that reads "Release all political prisoners" in Spanish.
Image via @jesusarmasccs on Instagram
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A Venezuelan civic leader and alumnus of CDDRL’s Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program, Armas was kidnapped by security forces following the country’s 2024 presidential election.

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  • A 2022 Fisher Family Summer Fellow at Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Jesús Armas was freed after prolonged detention in Venezuela’s El Helicoide prison.
  • He was detained after the country’s 2024 presidential election amid arrests of opposition organizers and civil society actors.
  • His case reflects broader international concern over detention for peaceful political expression.
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DAL Webinar 2.13.26

"Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela" is a four-part webinar series hosted by CDDRL's Democracy Action Lab that examines Venezuela’s uncertain transition to democracy through the political, economic, security, and justice-related challenges that will ultimately determine its success. Moving beyond abstract calls for change, the series will offer a practical, sequenced analysis of what a democratic opening in Venezuela would realistically require, drawing on comparative experiences from other post-authoritarian transitions.

Venezuela stands at a critical juncture. Following Nicolás Maduro's removal in January 2026, the question facing Venezuelan democratic actors and international partners is no longer whether a transition should occur, but how it could realistically unfold and what risks may undermine it.

This first webinar in the Democracy Action Lab’s "Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela" series examines the political foundations of democratic transition in Venezuela. The discussion will focus on the institutional and strategic constraints shaping a potential democratic opening, the priorities democratic forces should consider in the early stages of transition, and the lessons that comparative experiences — from Eastern Europe and other post-authoritarian contexts — offer for Venezuela today.

Panelists will assess practical pathways toward democratic governance, highlighting both the opportunities and the blind spots embedded in prevailing transition strategies.

SPEAKERS
 

  • José Ramón Morales-Arilla, Research Professor at Tecnológico de Monterrey's Graduate School of Government and Public Transformation
    • The Challenges of the Venezuelan Transition
       
  • Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
    • Challenges for Democratization in Comparative Perspective
       
  • Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of CDDRL and Satre Family Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
    • Lessons for Venezuela from Eastern Europe
       
  • Moderator: Héctor Fuentes, Visiting Scholar at CDDRL
Héctor Fuentes
Héctor Fuentes

Online via Zoom. Registration required.

José Ramón Morales-Arilla

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-6448 (650) 723-1928
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Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and Sociology
diamond_encina_hall.png MA, PhD

Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab WorldWill China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

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Former Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Faculty Chair, Jan Koum Israel Studies Program
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Larry Diamond

FSI
Stanford University
Encina Hall C140
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 736-1820 (650) 724-2996
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Satre Family Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
kathryn_stoner_1_2022_v2.jpg MA, PhD

Kathryn Stoner is the Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Satre Family Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). From 2017 to 2021, she served as FSI's Deputy Director. She is Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford and teaches in the Department of Political Science, the Program on International Relations, and the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy Program. She is also a Senior Fellow (by courtesy) at the Hoover Institution.

Prior to coming to Stanford in 2004, she was on the faculty at Princeton University for nine years, jointly appointed to the Department of Politics and the Princeton School for International and Public Affairs (formerly the Woodrow Wilson School). At Princeton, she received the Ralph O. Glendinning Preceptorship, awarded to outstanding junior faculty. She also served as a Visiting Associate Professor of Political Science at Columbia University and an Assistant Professor of Political Science at McGill University. She has held fellowships at Harvard University as well as the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. 

In addition to many articles and book chapters on contemporary Russia, she is the author or co-editor of six books: Transitions to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective, written and edited with Michael A. McFaul (Johns Hopkins 2013);  Autocracy and Democracy in the Post-Communist World, co-edited with Valerie Bunce and Michael A. McFaul (Cambridge, 2010);  Resisting the State: Reform and Retrenchment in Post-Soviet Russia (Cambridge, 2006); After the Collapse of Communism: Comparative Lessons of Transitions (Cambridge, 2004), coedited with Michael McFaul; and Local Heroes: The Political Economy of Russian Regional Governance (Princeton, 1997); and Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order (Oxford University Press, 2021).

She received a BA (1988) and MA (1989) in Political Science from the University of Toronto, and a PhD in Government from Harvard University (1995). In 2016, she was awarded an honorary doctorate from Ilia State University in Tbilisi, the Republic of Georgia.

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Mosbacher Director, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Professor of Political Science (by courtesy), Stanford University
Senior Fellow (by courtesy), Hoover Institution
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Join us for the first event in a 4-part webinar series hosted by the Democracy Action Lab — "Rebuilding Democracy in Venezuela." Friday, February 13, 12:00 - 1:00 pm PT. Click to register for Zoom.

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Stanford faculty, students, and staff are welcome to join the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) for “Global Trends and Geopolitics in 2026: A Look Ahead,” a forward-looking conversation on the forces shaping the world.

FSI Director Colin Kahl will moderate a panel of leading institute scholars as they examine key regions and themes. The discussion will feature Larry Diamond on the future of global democracy; Anna Grzymala-Busse on European politics; Harold Trinkunas on Latin America; and Or Rabinowitz on Middle East politics and U.S.-Israel relations. Kahl will also offer insights into U.S.-China competition for AI dominance.

Don't miss this timely conversation on emerging risks, opportunities, and policy implications as we navigate an increasingly complex global landscape in 2026.

Drinks and hors d'oeuvres will be served following the panel discussion. 

Colin Kahl

Location available following valid registration

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-6448 (650) 723-1928
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Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and Sociology
diamond_encina_hall.png MA, PhD

Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab WorldWill China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Former Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Faculty Chair, Jan Koum Israel Studies Program
Date Label
Larry Diamond

Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA  94305

 

(650) 723-4270
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies
Professor of Political Science
Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
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Anna Grzymała-Busse is a professor in the Department of Political Science, the Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the director of The Europe Center. Her research interests include political parties, state development and transformation, informal political institutions, religion and politics, and post-communist politics.

In her first book, Redeeming the Communist Past, she examined the paradox of the communist successor parties in East Central Europe: incompetent as authoritarian rulers of the communist party-state, several then succeeded as democratic competitors after the collapse of these communist regimes in 1989.

Rebuilding Leviathan, her second book project, investigated the role of political parties and party competition in the reconstruction of the post-communist state. Unless checked by a robust competition, democratic governing parties simultaneously rebuilt the state and ensured their own survival by building in enormous discretion into new state institutions.

Anna's third book, Nations Under God, examines why some churches have been able to wield enormous policy influence. Others have failed to do so, even in very religious countries. Where religious and national identities have historically fused, churches gained great moral authority, and subsequently covert and direct access to state institutions. It was this institutional access, rather than either partisan coalitions or electoral mobilization, that allowed some churches to become so powerful.

Anna's most recent book, Sacred Foundations: The Religious and Medieval Roots of the European State argues that the medieval church was a fundamental force in European state formation.

Other areas of interest include informal institutions, the impact of European Union membership on politics in newer member countries, and the role of temporality and causal mechanisms in social science explanations.

Director of The Europe Center
Anna Grzymała-Busse
Harold Trinkunas
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Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies
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Or (Ori) Rabinowitz will join Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies in summer 2026 as a Senior Research Scholar, with appointments at both CDDRL’s Jan Koum Israel Studies Program and CISAC. She arrives at Stanford following her time as a tenured Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) in the Department of International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

A recipient of the British Foreign Office’s Chevening Scholarship, Rabinowitz completed her PhD in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London in 2011. Her first book, Bargaining on Nuclear Tests, was published by Oxford University Press in 2014. Her second book, Protecting the Nuclear Monopoly, forthcoming with Cambridge University Press, examines the evolution of U.S.–Israeli collaboration in countering nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Rabinowitz has published widely in leading academic journals as well as in prominent policy and public-facing outlets. She is the recipient of multiple grants and distinctions, including two competitive personal grants from the Israel Science Foundation.

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On Jan. 7, the Democracy Action Lab convened a panel to assess Venezuela’s political landscape following the U.S. administration’s recent removal and arrest of leader Nicolás Maduro.

The event, “Venezuela After Maduro: Democracy, Authoritarian Rebalancing, or Chaos,” included speakers María Ignacia CurielHéctor FuentesDorothy KronickHarold Trinkunas, and Diego A. Zambrano. Moderated by Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, the discussion offered analyses of post-extraction scenarios that drew on comparative experiences, Venezuelan political dynamics, and theories of post-authoritarian and post-conflict transitions. 

Housed in the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), the Democracy Action Lab (DAL) combines rigorous research with practitioner collaborations. It is co-directed by Beatriz Magaloni and Díaz-Cayeros, both senior fellows at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). During the panel discussion, Díaz-Cayeros said that DAL is collecting and sharing resources on the situation in Venezuela.

Authoritarian rebalance 


Maduro served as president of Venezuela for more than 10 years before he was ousted Jan. 3 in a U.S. military operation that brought him to America to face narco-terrorism charges.

Trinkunas, a senior research scholar at FSI’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), discussed the possibility of Venezuela transitioning to democracy, especially given the opposition's overwhelming victory in the 2024 presidential elections. But an authoritarian rebalancing looms large, he noted.

“We have to remember that all the institutions of power and all the electoral offices in Venezuela below the president are held by supporters of the regime,” he said.

Trinkunas recalled political scientist Alexander B. Downs’ book, “Catastrophic Success,” which examined the negative consequences of foreign-imposed regime changes and highlighted that such interventions often lead to civil war and violent removals of leaders.

“About one-third to 40% of all regimes installed by a foreign intervention end up in civil conflict within 10 years,” Trinkunas said. And, almost half of leaders installed by foreign powers withdraw from or are pushed from office before their terms are up.

He foresees a divergence between the interests of the intervening power, the U.S., and Venezuela’s power elites and population under the proposed arrangement. “The people with the guns stay employed.” And they may not be eager to cooperate if it involves sharing Venezuela’s mineral wealth with the United States government.

Díaz-Cayeros said, “Nothing has changed in the basic underlying economic conditions of Venezuela that has forced an exodus of 8 million people.” Days after the arrest of Maduro, the government in office is still the same government that came into office through an electoral fraud, he added.

We have to remember that all the institutions of power and all the electoral offices in Venezuela below the president are held by supporters of the regime.
Harold Trinkunas
Senior Research Scholar, CISAC

Status quo interests


Curiel, a research scholar at CDDRL, research manager for the Democracy Action Lab, and a native of Venezuela, described the ecosystem of armed actors in Venezuela and outlined how both state and non-state security forces have the incentives and capabilities to preserve the status quo. 

“They’ve had arrangements that have been important for their survival, up until now. And so, there’s a question that these groups face with the loss of Maduro and [his wife Cilia] Flores,” she said.

To the extent they perceive their arrangements are under threat, they might respond with violence or engage in chaos, Curiel added. This is further complicated by the fact that different armed groups are loyal to different members of the governing coalition, creating competing power centers.

Fuentes, a CDDRL visiting scholar and Venezuelan native, noted that the situation in Venezuela remains extremely fluid and that it is still too early to determine whether Maduro’s removal will lead to authoritarian rebalancing or a genuine democratic transition. He argued that policymakers face a real tension between two objectives: stabilizing the country while accounting for the complexity and fragility of the Venezuelan state, and recognizing that stabilization without a clear commitment to democratic transition as the ultimate goal is not sustainable.

“The stability is not going to happen unless you promise and commit to the final goal of a democratic transition,” said Fuentes, a lawyer and policy expert from Venezuela.

He explained that the regime’s basic instinct is to resist and survive any U.S. involvement in the way its key ally, Cuba, has done through the decades.

Stability is not going to happen unless you promise and commit to the final goal of a democratic transition.
Héctor Fuentes
Visiting Scholar, CDDRL

Zambrano, a Stanford law professor and CDDRL affiliated faculty member who grew up in Venezuela, said he was guardedly optimistic about a democratic transition and supported the military operation that removed Maduro. As for the legal implications of the capture of Maduro, he cited prior examples of the U.S. taking military action in Kosovo, Libya, and Panama, among others, without Congressional approval and in apparent violation of international law.

The international law prohibition on the use of force “has been violated [maybe] 40 times” in the last few decades, he said. “This is one more violation. Is that good? No, that’s not good, but it’s not a drastic change the way the Russian invasion of Ukraine was,” because the latter implicated the international prohibition on the annexation of territory. Moreover, in Venezuela’s case, the Venezuelan people welcomed the U.S. intervention.

Kronick, an associate professor of public policy at UC Berkeley and Stanford alum, observed that U.S. officials at a January 3 press conference didn’t mention democracy and totally dismissed María Corina Machado, whom she described as “Venezuela's most popular politician and the driving force behind the opposition candidate in last year's presidential election.”

The 2024 Venezuelan presidential election was highly controversial, given that both the opposition showed incontrovertible evidence, widely verified by the international community, that the election was stolen by Maduro and that the opposition actually won by a landslide.

Kronick said the acting president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, is clearly not a democratic activist and has been a key member of the regime for years. “It’s a little bit hard to be optimistic about the prospects for democratization,” given her current role.

On the other hand, Venezuela has very capable election-vote-counting technology and decades of high-turnout elections, all of which could potentially facilitate re-democratization. 

This kind of U.S. unilateral action strikes a very deep chord in the Latin American psyche. And it doesn’t really matter if someone is on the left or on the right.
Alberto Díaz-Cayeros
Senior Fellow, FSI; Co-Director, Democracy Action Lab

‘Gangster diplomacy’


In the question-and-answer session, Michael McFaul, former FSI director, described the Trump Administration’s current attempt to take more than $2 billion in oil from Venezuela as “gangster diplomacy” and a “travesty.” 

Díaz-Cayeros said, “This kind of U.S. unilateral action strikes a very deep chord in the Latin American psyche. And it doesn’t really matter if someone is on the left or on the right” in Latin and South America.”

Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of CDDRL, noted that the U.S. arrest of Maduro raises troubling questions about whether Russia would attempt a similar action against Ukraine’s leaders in the future. “What then stops Putin, other than the incompetence of the Russian armed forces, from going in and trying to get (President Volodymyr) Zelensky or any other high leader in Ukraine?”

Kronick suggested audience members read a recent Foreign Affairs essay, “A Grand Bargain With Venezuela,” in which the author argues for a “pacted transition,” a negotiated, power-sharing arrangement, as the most viable path for Venezuela. This would involve an agreement between the current regime and opposition to coexist and gradually democratize, rather than one side seeking total victory.

“Whether you read this and think this is pie in the sky and this is never going to happen, or you think this is what we need to really push for, I think it’s really worth engaging with, so I’ll end with that recommendation,” she said.
 

In October 2025, CDDRL launched the Democracy Action Lab, a new initiative designed to apply the findings of leading-edge research to practice in the global effort to defend and revitalize democracy. DAL’s agenda is organized around four key issues — how democratic erosion unfolds; how practitioners navigate strategic dilemmas; how diasporas may influence political struggles at home; and how citizens’ beliefs and trade-offs shape their commitments to democracy.

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Exploring the Implications of Venezuela’s 2024 Presidential Election with Héctor Fuentes

Fuentes, a lawyer, human rights advocate, and agent of social change in Venezuela, is a member of the 2024 class of Fisher Family Summer Fellows at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law.
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A man holds a portrait of Nicolas Maduro during a march in Caracas, Venezuela, on January 6, 2026.
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A Democracy Action Lab panel weighed competing scenarios for Venezuela’s political future amid elite continuity, economic crisis, and international intervention.

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The "Meet Our Researchers" series showcases the incredible scholars at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). Through engaging interviews conducted by our undergraduate research assistants, we explore the journeys, passions, and insights of CDDRL’s faculty and researchers.

María Ignacia Curiel is a Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Research Affiliate of the Poverty, Violence and Governance Lab, and Research Manager for the center's Democracy Action Lab at Stanford University. She also co-teaches CDDRL's Fisher Family Undergraduate Honors Program alongside Stephen Stedman.

Curiel is an empirical political scientist who uses experimental, observational, and qualitative data to study violence and democratic participation, peacebuilding, and representation. Her research primarily explores political solutions to violent conflict and the electoral participation of parties with violent origins. This work includes an in-depth empirical study of Comunes, the Colombian political party formed by former FARC guerrillas, as well as a broader analysis of rebel party behavior across different contexts. More recently, her research has focused on democratic mobilization and the political representation of groups affected by violence in Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.

What inspired you to pursue your research and your current field, and how did your journey lead you to CDDRL? 


I lived in Venezuela as a teenager, during a time when politics were very salient. It was a moment when institutional erosion was happening in front of my eyes. It was very polarized — it was just a very political moment in Venezuela. Everybody's life was affected by politics, and all of these changes were a huge part of life. It was also a very violent moment. And so throughout my upbringing I was always a part of these conversations — at the dinner table, at recess, in the classroom — about why we had gotten to that violent place, and how some actors were trying to change the situation, what they should and shouldn't do, and then how things could be improved I knew that when it came time to go to college, and when I envisioned my career, that I would want to be a part of thinking about how things could be changed when governments were eroding and when societies were going through these massive changes. It was a desire and interest that came from my own experience.

I also had a high school history teacher who was incredibly influential, Antonio Sánchez. He made it a priority to have serious discussions of our contemporary challenges and our history in the classroom. We had heated debates with my classmates about whether protesting and voting made a difference, whether oil made this our inevitable fate, whether we had ever truly been a democracy, whether poverty had improved and whether this increased public spending was sustainable, whether there should be militarized responses to the major violence we were living; all these big questions I continue to think about as a political scientist I actually started thinking about 20 years ago as a teen.

Was there any reason that you chose to go into academia over going to government or public service?


I have always been driven by a desire to contribute to policy, decision-making, and governance. Academia has provided me an opportunity to develop a strong analytical foundation, offering frameworks for understanding the world, insights into how evidence is produced and evaluated, and mastery of rigorous knowledge production itself. I genuinely love the intellectual environment of academia and believe it offers unique opportunities for impact through the production of ideas and evidence. My ultimate goal is to support better policy and decision-making through my academic work, where research directly informs practitioners and policymakers, and perhaps through other types of roles in the future.
 


My ultimate goal is to support better policy and decision-making through my academic work, where research directly informs practitioners and policymakers, and perhaps through other types of roles in the future.
María Ignacia Curiel


What intrigued you about academia? 


Conventional conversations on current events were never really satisfying to me — you could always come up with another reason or another argument for why things were or what the solutions should be, and people have their own opinions, biases, and beliefs. But throughout college, I realized there are frameworks for these ways of thinking about the world more structurally that can help us make sense of what's happening. This hooked me in, and I couldn't unsee how useful those tools were — not just to help us understand the world, but to help us get a handle on how humans govern ourselves. I also love students. I love teaching. It's just so gratifying. So, those things together brought me to academia. 

What stands out to you about the space of CDDRL? 


CDDRL is a really special place. I think the downside of academia can be that there are pressures to publish, which, of course, you still have at CDDRL, but sometimes there are pressures or incentives that push people away from wanting to engage with what's happening in the world. And CDDRL is not that at all. It's also not the opposite: just a constant discussion of current events, without any good analytical tools. CDDRL is the perfect blend of making sense of the world and offering effective solutions, while remaining committed to producing cutting-edge research.

What is the most exciting or impactful finding from your research, and why do you think it matters for democracy or development? 


An important line of research in my work has been working with ex-combatants in Colombia, which led to one of the first major findings in my research.  The research was with former combatants — people who, for different reasons, become experts in the use of violence to pursue their political beliefs. Typically, we can think of them as radical ideologically. Upon conducting these interviews with intervention, we found that ex-combatants who received an intervention to help them better understand civics and political structures showed a moderation in their preferences towards less radical political participation. What that says to me is that even though some actors have invested in radical and antidemocratic means of participating in or influencing politics, these same actors can be incorporated into politics in a way that's not violent yet is democratic. I think that's an optimistic story.
 


Even though some actors have invested in radical and antidemocratic means of participating in or influencing politics, these same actors can be incorporated into politics in a way that's not violent yet is democratic. I think that's an optimistic story.
María Ignacia Curiel


When recruiting participants for that study and engaging them, how did you get ex-combatants to participate in a study on political science? How did these conversations go, and how did you incentivize them to participate? 


As you may imagine, these are populations of people that are difficult to access and that are very untrustworthy. There is some danger, whether from them or from groups targeting former combatants. When conducting these interviews, several constraints arose. Part of the lesson was that the approach had to go through as many gatekeepers to these populations as possible, such as trusted local leadership and community members. There was a process of gaining trust; this wasn't like knocking on a door and asking, “Would you like to participate in research?” With these kinds of populations, earning trust and being transparent is important — sharing who you are, why you're there, what you're going to do with that information, why it's important for them to participate, and how the participation can be useful to them. 

How do you see your research influencing policy and contributing to real-world change?


This is important to me, as I see my research being helpful to different kinds of policymakers in different ways. The first is the evidence on specific interventions that I've evaluated with some coauthors. These include interventions like this civic inclusion, the interventions we evaluated with ex-combatants, and another project I'm working on — a political efficacy intervention with women in rural communities. Specifically, from these kinds of interventions, there are clear lessons for organizations that are working to scale these kinds of efforts, like the UN's peacekeeping operations and agencies that develop reintegration programming. I have some evidence from my research that I think could be helpful for negotiation processes, related to the role of guarantees of power in negotiations and how that might affect long-term political considerations that can shape the prospects for peace. I also work with the Democracy Action Lab, a new venture here at CDDRL, whose mission is to produce research useful to democracy practitioners as they develop their strategies and to other organizations that support them. 

You were discussing how the world you grew up in very much shaped the direction you went into. With the motion of current events over the past few decades, has your research focus shifted any more? How do you see your work changing in the global era we're in right now? 


I started by telling you how my life in Venezuela shaped my desire to understand politics and governance. But I didn't actually spend the first part of my academic career studying Venezuela. I turned my attention to a process of negotiation and transition from a seemingly intractable conflict in Colombia, and the tensions and dilemmas inherent to these paths out of conflict. This knowledge, I believe, is informative of paths out of civil war, but also out of circumstances like the ones Venezuela faces today. Fast forward to today, amid the broader decline of democracy and the disappearance of the process of democratization, I'm coming back to these problems of responding to emboldened authoritarians, and how that intersects with the problems of violence and the actors who use it. It's becoming increasingly difficult to be a social scientist and not try to respond to the problems of the moment. People have different opinions about what the role of academics and the social sciences should be, but I'm of the opinion that part of our job is to help explain and understand the world we're in now. It's what the moment requires of us.
 


People have different opinions about what the role of academics and the social sciences should be, but I'm of the opinion that part of our job is to help explain and understand the world we're in now. It's what the moment requires of us.
María Ignacia Curiel


What’s one focus you have in your career at this moment?


Part of what I'm grappling with is making sure the questions I ask in my research are relevant to this moment and also to future moments. What are broader processes, general dilemmas, or general problems, for either policymakers or for the general dynamics that the citizenry faces? Additionally, how do we make sure these topics are in conversation with the broader public? Right now, the value of higher education and academia is being questioned by people in power, and there are significant pressures on academia. I think it's important to elevate our insights, their relevance, and make them legible and accessible to people more generally.

What book do you recommend for students interested in a research career in your field?


It depends on where your interests lie, but here are three:
 

  • For those interested in civil conflict and the dynamics of civil war, I recommend Rebelocracy: Social Order in the Colombian Civil War by Ana Arjona for understanding why rebel organizations engage in the strategies they do and how communities respond. 

  • For those interested in authoritarian strategies and elections, I would recommend Voting for Autocracy by CDDRL’s own Beatriz Magaloni.

  • And for those interested in understanding the general strategies of leaders, The Dictator's Handbook by Alastair Smith and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a wonderful and connected overview of autocracy and the incentives of leaders.

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Meet Our Researchers: María Ignacia Curiel
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Tracing paths from political violence to democratic participation with CDDRL Research Scholar María Ignacia Curiel.

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