Turkey held its municipal elections on March 31, 2024. Beyond their immediate importance for local governance, addressing issues such as urban spaces and environmental challenges, these elections hold broader significance for the challenge of democracy in a nation that has been grappling with competitive authoritarianism for a while. Nowhere is this significance more pronounced than in the race for Istanbul's mayorship. Istanbul, being the commercial and cultural heart of Turkey, witnessed a landmark double victory by the opposition candidate five years ago, shaking the economic infrastructure of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)'s governance model. What do these elections signify for the future of democracy, at both local and national levels, in Turkey? Stanford scholars on Turkey will engage in a dialogue with Gönül Tol to explore the implications of the March 31 local elections.

This event is co-sponsored by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, the Middle Eastern Studies Forum, and CDDRL's Program on Turkey.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Gönül Tol is the founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program and a senior fellow with the Black Sea Program. She is the author of Erdoğan's War: A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria. She has taught courses at George Washington University’s Institute for Middle East Studies and at the College of International Security Affairs at the National Defense University on Turkey, Islamist movements in Western Europe, world politics, and the Middle East. She has written extensively on Turkey-U.S. relations, Turkish domestic and foreign policy, and the Kurdish issue. She is a frequent media commentator.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey's pugnacious president, is now the country's longest-serving leader. On his way to the top, he has fought many wars. This book tells the story of those battles against domestic enemies through the lens of the Syrian conflict, which has become part and parcel of Erdoğan's fight to remain in power.

Turkey expert Gönül Tol traces Erdoğan's ideological evolution from a conservative democrat to an Islamist and a Turkish nationalist, and explores how this progression has come to shape his Syria policy, changing the course of the war. She paints a vivid picture of the president's constantly shifting strategy to consolidate his rule, showing that these shifts have transformed Turkey's role in post-uprising Syria from an advocate of democracy, to a power fanning the flames of civil war, to an occupier.

From the first days of Erdoğan's rule through the failed coup against him, via the Kurdish peace process, the Arab uprisings and the refugee crisis, this compelling, authoritative book tells the story of one man's quest to remain in power--tying together the fates of two countries, and changing them both forever.

This event is co-sponsored by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, the Middle Eastern Studies Forum, and CDDRL's Program on Turkey.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gönül Tol is the founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program and a senior fellow with the Black Sea Program. She is the author of Erdogan's War: A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria. She has taught courses at George Washington University’s Institute for Middle East Studies and at the College of International Security Affairs at the National Defense University on Turkey, Islamist movements in Western Europe, world politics, and the Middle East.She has written extensively on Turkey-U.S. relations, Turkish domestic politics, and foreign policy and the Kurdish issue. She is a frequent media commentator.

Why do some parties in power commit to democracy while others do not? Sebnem Gumuscu will explain why by relying on her extensive field research in Turkey, Egypt, and Tunisia. Islamist parties rose to power in free and fair elections in all three countries, yet only in Tunisia remained committed to pluralism and liberal democratic norms. In Turkey and Egypt, in contrast, the AKP and the Muslim Brotherhood subverted democracy by committing to righteous majoritarianism. Gumuscu will explore the different trajectories of these Islamist parties and unpack the role of party factions in charting their democratic course.

This event is co-sponsored by CDDRL's Program on Turkey, the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy, and the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Sebnem Gumuscu is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Middlebury College. Her research interests include political Islam, dominant parties, democratization and democratic backsliding, and Middle Eastern and North African politics. Her articles appeared in journals such as Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Democracy, Government and Opposition, Third World Quarterly, South European Society and Politics, and Middle Eastern Studies.

Her first book, Democracy, Identity, and Foreign Policy in Turkey: Hegemony through Transformation (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014), co-authored with E. Fuat Keyman, examines Turkey's transformation under the Justice and Development Party since 2002 within the broader context of Turkish modernization.

Her new book, Democracy or Authoritarianism: Islamist Governments in Turkey, Egypt, and Tunisia (Cambridge University Press) focuses on Islamist parties and their democratic commitments in power. Relying on extensive fieldwork in Turkey, Egypt, and Tunisia, she unpacks intra-party dynamics to explain divergent trajectories of Islamist governments.