In a recent piece with Stanford News, FSI Senior Fellow Kathryn Stoner remarks on recent Russian military interventions in the Syrian conflict, suggesting that this re-engagement with the Middle East is a signal to Western powers of Putin's aim to become a global power. To read more, please click here. 

In a recent piece in Stanford News, FSI Senior Fellow Larry Diamond expresses his thoughts on the ebbing of global democratic expansion, highlighting that not all countries have equal opportunities at achieving democracy and that democratic change should be approached multilaterally.

In an op-ed for The New York Times, Larry Diamond presents a timeline of democracy charting the spread, regression, and sometimes even collapse, of democracy in the last 40 years.

Russian leaders are grappling with difficult and complex foreign policy choices on Afghanistan in the wake of the U.S. and NATO military exit, a Stanford expert says.

"Russian policy in Afghanistan is at a crossroads, with worsening relations with the West looming against the background of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," wrote Kathryn Stoner, a Stanford political scientist and senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, in a new article in the journal Asian Survey.

The Soviet experience in Afghanistan in the 1980s left haunting memories in the minds of Russian policymakers, "who have no interest in being trapped again in a war they can neither afford nor win," wrote Stoner in the article, titled "Russia’s 21st Century Interests in Afghanistan: Resetting the Bear Trap."

The Soviet-Afghan War from 1979 to 1989 was called a "Bear Trap" by some Western media, and thought to be a contributing factor to the fall of the Soviet Union.

Power vacuum perils

Stoner said that as the U.S. pullout deadline approached in December 2014, Russia was critical of the arguably hasty retreat of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Some troops remained behind in an advisory role.

As she described it, Moscow's leaders thought a sudden power vacuum would leave a variety of threats within Afghanistan – weapons proliferation, corrupt police, a rising drug trade and radical Islamists, for example.

Of the latter, recent news reports indicate the Islamic State group has established a presence in Afghanistan; Russia has urged the United Nations Security Council to stop its expansion.

"On the ISIS vs. Taliban question," Stoner said in an interview, "it is a question of the lesser of two evils, of course, from a Russian perspective."

For Russia, she said, the Islamic State group may be more undesirable than the Taliban in Afghanistan because they are attempting to recruit young Russian Muslims to their cause, which could breed homegrown terrorists who return to Russia with the group's message and training.

"The other issue is that although Afghanistan was brutally ruled under the Taliban, it was more stable than it is currently. Still, neither group is pro-foreigner or pro-Russian especially," she added.

As Stoner wrote, in the interest of stability Russia has expressed possible support for moderate rank-and-file Taliban to be included in the Afghan government.

"Russian leaders point to the fact that heroin trafficking was less under the Taliban than in the past five years under the U.S./NATO coalition," noted Stoner, adding that narcotics were reaching the Russian population.

Meanwhile, Russia is exploring the possibility of moving additional troops to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as well as re-equipping those countries' armies to provide a "defensive zone in Central Asia against Afghan radical or narcotics incursions into the Russian heartland," according to Stoner.

The ideal Russian scenario in Afghanistan would have been for President Hamid Karzai to stay in power and a government of national reconciliation formed with moderate Taliban, she said. That scenario, however, has failed, and Russia will have to cope with an Afghanistan without Karzai.

Choices and a crossroads

Stoner believes Russia is faced with three choices. One is to return to its 1990s policy and support an updated version of the Northern Alliance as a way to create a northern buffer zone that protects its Central Asian allies from any incursions from Afghanistan.

The second is to cooperate with the new Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, and perhaps a moderate Taliban, in governing Afghanistan.

"The latter strategy could have the advantage of reducing narcotics trafficking, but it risks allowing Afghanistan to again become a haven for radical Islamic terrorists," said Stoner.

Russia clearly does not want another front to open in its war on radical Islam – the Chechen conflict has already produced enough grief for the Russian population and its leadership, she noted.

A third option for the Russians, according to Stoner, would be to continue some degree of cooperation with Western forces in creating a protective zone around Central Asia. The problem for the Russians is that this might bring about a "counterbalancing strategy on the part of China, which would not fit with Russia's strategy."

Besides, it's a long shot, she added, as Russia's renewed conflict with the West over Ukraine has deeply damaged its ability to  cooperate with Western powers in and around Afghanistan.

"There are few reliable indications of which path Russia is likely to choose," wrote Stoner. "One can discern elements of each scenario in Russian statements and actions in Afghanistan."

She explained that Russian leaders want to reassert their country's prominence on the global stage.

"In many ways, Russia is resurgent internationally. It has emerged from the ashes of the Soviet Union not as the superpower it was, but as a formidable regional power that cannot be discounted," said Stoner.

Under Vladimir Putin, Russia seeks to command the respect of the international community, though it can no longer rely on brute military force. Rather, it must today depend on adroit diplomatic or strategic moves to "act as facilitator or spoiler in many parts of the world," she wrote.

This Russian resurgence, she said, has played a role in its policy choices in Afghanistan since 2001. "It wants influence, but not ownership, in Central Asia, and ultimately in Afghanistan," she wrote.

As a result, Russia will act on the margins of the Afghanistan issue, leveraging its power to protect its own security interests in Central Asia.

"Russia has much to lose and little to gain by doing much more. For this reason, Russian policymakers are in the awkward position of not having wanted the Americans to come to Central Asia, but now, not wanting them to leave," she wrote.

Clifton B. Parker is a writer for the Stanford News Service.

Our largest and most competitive applicant pool on record, this group was selected from among 561 global applicants for their professional track records of success, the impact they have made on democratic development and their leadership skills. Fellows will arrive to Stanford in July to begin the three-week program taught by Stanford faculty, policymakers and thought-leaders in the technology sector.

As human rights defenders in Bahrain, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cambodia, Egypt, Georgia and Uganda, our fellows are supporting victims' rights, promoting gender justice, keeping governments accountable and reporting these abuses to the international community.

In Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Jordan, India, Nigeria and Zambia, our fellows are working to strengthen the rule of law to provide legal services to the poor, protect refugee rights, prosecute corruption and advance police reform.

Fellows are using innovative ICT tools and online platforms in Cuba, Kenya, Nigeria and Ukraine to increase transparency, build virtual communities and magnify their reach.

Social entrepreneurs in Bhutan, Paraguay and Tunisia are supporting rural communities and incubating new start-up initiatives to spread the culture of entrepreneurship among youth. And lastly, activists in Belarus, Burma and Thailand are working to promote democratic reforms to support their country’s political development.

The 2015 class will mark the 11th cohort of the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program and this will join the Omidyar Network Leadership Forum, a community of 250 alumni in 70 countries worldwide.

Please join us in congratulating this remarkable group of democracy leaders and welcoming them to the Stanford community.

More information on the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program can be found here.

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Silvina Rivarola is a criminal prosecutor with the Attorney General’s office for the City of Buenos Aires where she is in charge of the cybercrime unit. Rivarola has devoted her 25-year career to advancing the rule of law in Argentina’s judicial branch where she previously served as a criminal judge.

Aleś Łahviniec is the vice-chair of the Movement for Freedom, one of Belarus’ leading democratic opposition organizations working to advance democracy and develop civil society. Łahviniec ran for parliamentary and local elections. As an instructor, he is leading several education programs for young people. He is also a political commentator in Belarusian independent media. 

Thinley Choden is an independent consultant, social entrepreneur and an advocate for education and women’s leadership. She also founded READ Bhutan, the first organization to establish a network of community libraries and resource centers in rural areas. To date, READ programs serve over 35,000 Bhutanese and help to instill democratic practices on a grassroots level.

Sumeja Tulic is a researcher for Amnesty International responsible for monitoring, researching, investigating and analyzing human rights developments for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Slovenia. As an activist is the Balkans, Tulic helped launch networks to combat hate crimes and speech and has also used photography as a tool for human rights outreach.

Myat Ko is the co-founder of the Yangon School of Political Science where he directs their political education department working to train and empower citizens with political knowledge to support Burma’s political development. Ko works with ethnic groups and opposition parties to engage them in Burma’s transition.

Terith Chy is the executive officer of the Documentation Center of Cambodia, an organization that documents the crimes committed by the Khmer Rouge regime to help bring justice to the millions of victims and survivors. Chy’s work in transitional justice has made him one of Asia’s leading experts on victim participation in mass crimes proceedings.

Laura Gil is a senior advisor to the Minister of Interior in Colombia where she has worked on drafting and implementing law to support the peace process and reparations for victims. Working with government and civil society, Gil has sought government action to aid in the peaceful resolution of internal armed conflicts.

Karina Sarmiento is the regional director for Asylum Access Latin America, an international organization working to support refugee rights. Sarmiento leads the organization’s growth and implementation strategy for refugee legal aid clinics, strategic litigation, community legal empowerment and national policy advocacy across Latin America.

Heba Morayef is an Egyptian human rights defender based in Cairo. As Human Rights Watch’s Egypt director for six years, Morayef focused on documenting human rights violations, publicizing them, and lobbying decision-makers. Most recently, she served as a senior Egypt analyst for the International Crisis Group until the authorities shut down the Cairo office.

Giorgi Gogia is a senior researcher for Human Rights Watch where he researches, monitors and documents human rights abuses in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Gogia’s work on criminal justice reform in Georgia led to an amendment overhauling the government’s flawed system of administrative detention in 2014.

Mukul Saxena is a colonel with the Indian Army who has 11 years of service in conflict regions of the country. As a passionate human rights advocate, Saxena is working within the Indian army on human rights issues pertaining to children's rights in areas of civil unrest.

Navaz Kotwal works for the United Nations Development Program leading a project to provide legal empowerment for the poor, while working on broader issues of justice delivery and reform. Kotwal’s involvement in rights work began in the aftermath of the 2002 communal riots in Gujarat, India, where she helped obtain justice for survivors.

May Al-Taher is a researcher and the founder of the Vision Institute for Civil Society Studies, a policy research institute that works on legislative reform and monitors legal implementation in Jordan. Most recently, Vision Institute led the Jordan Local Governance Watch, which conducted an assessment of the state of local democracy in Jordan.

Teddy Warria is a Kenyan entrepreneur and the CEO of Africa 2.0 Kenya, an action-oriented community of young and emerging leaders from Africa who share a collective vision for the future. Warria is also the director of Africa’s Talking Limited, a mobile telecommunications company working to close the information poverty gap in Kenya.

Roukaya Kasenally is a senior advisor with the African Media Initiative, an organization supporting independent media on the African continent. Kasenally has served as a researcher for a number of pan-African democratic and governance institutions and co-founded an advocacy organization to engage the Mauritian public in democratic development. Kasenally also teaches at the University of Mauritius.

Oludotun Babayemi is the co-founder of Connected Development [CODE], an organization that uses online and offline tools to put pressure on governments and organizations in Nigeria to be more accountable and transparent. Their “Follow the Money” campaign has helped to monitor and track public resource allocation so marginalized communities receive government provisions and services. 

Bruno Defelippe is a social entrepreneur who has launched several social initiatives to engage young people to solve social and environmental challenges in Paraguay. He is the co-founder and CEO of Koga Social Business Lab, which incubates social businesses and provides a strong ecosystem for social entrepreneurs to thrive.

Kornchanok Raksaseri is a journalist, educator and activist working on media reform to support Thailand’s democratic development. Raksaseri is a member of the Thai Journalists Association and a vice president of the ASEAN Journalists Club where she promotes professionalism of the media, freedom of the press and the welfare of journalists.

Houssem Aoudi is the founder of Wasabi, a media and communications company working to promote the freedom of expression and entrepreneurship in Tunisia. Aoudi served as the director of the Media Center for the 2014 Tunisian parliamentary and presidential elections, and is the co-founder of a hub and community space for entrepreneurs.

Irene Caroline Ovonji-Odida is the CEO of the Uganda Association of Women Lawyers, which works to use the law to advance human rights and social justice for women and children. Ovonji-Odida has dedicated 25 years of her career to advancing gender equality and justice as a policymaker, activist and legislator.

Maksym Savanevskyi is the founder of Watcher, an online news platform that explores and analyzes the impact of digital communications on society in Ukraine. He co-founded the Ukraine Crisis Media Center, which was set up in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, to provide objective information about developments in Ukraine.

Catherine Phiri is a public prosecutor for the government of Zambia where she prosecutes cases of corrupt practices, abuse of authority and money laundering that undermine the rule of law. Through her work she has helped implement systems that enhance the efficient and effective flow of cases.