Conflict
Paragraphs

We show how exposure to partisan peers, under conditions requiring high stakes cooperation, can trigger the breakthrough of novel political beliefs. We exploit the large-scale, exogenous assignment of soldiers from each of 34,947 French municipalities into line infantry regiments during World War I. We show that soldiers from poor, rural municipalities---where the novel redistributive message of the left had previously failed to penetrate---voted for the left by nearly 45% more after the war when exposed to left-wing partisans within their regiment. We provide evidence that these differences reflect persuasive information provision by both peers and officers in the trenches that proved particularly effective among those most likely to benefit from the redistributive policies of the left. In contrast, soldiers from neighbouring municipalities that served with right-wing partisans are inoculated against the left, becoming moderate centrists instead.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Rockwool Foundation Berlin
Authors
Saumitra Jha

Encina Hall, E109
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

0
Gerhard Casper Postdoctoral Fellow, 2025-26
xt4c0697.jpg

Ana Paula Pellegrino is the Gerhard Casper Fellow in Rule of Law at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and a JSD Candidate at Stanford Law School. Pellegrino is an empirical political scientist using experimental, observational, and qualitative data to study questions of criminal and political violence, with a particular interest in Latin America. Her research agenda includes projects on state and non-state armed actors, including police and criminal groups, and how they form and engage with each other. Other projects explore public attitudes towards violence and war, as well as the micro-dynamics of violence and war outcomes.

Pellegrino's work has been supported by Georgetown University, Fundação Estudar’s Leaders program, and the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation’s Emerging Scholars program. She holds a Ph.D. in Government from Georgetown University and a BA and MA in International Relations from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. She is an incoming Assistant Professor at the School of Government at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, in Santiago, where she will begin in July 2026.

Date Label
-
Pathways to Freedom: Defending Political Prisoners and Democracy

The Stanford community is invited to join the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law on Monday, August 4, for an important conversation about democracy, human rights, and political prisoners worldwide.

Authoritarian regimes across the globe are increasingly using political imprisonment as a strategic weapon. Far beyond isolated acts of repression, political prisoners serve autocrats in multiple ways: they silence vocal dissidents, fracture organized opposition, deter mass mobilization, and are often used as bargaining chips in international negotiations. These regimes understand that imprisoning individuals can sow fear and demoralize broader movements without drawing the same global backlash as overt violence.

The case of Jesús Armas — a Venezuelan activist, 2022 Fisher Family Summer Fellow, and recently admitted student to Stanford’s Master’s in International Policy program — illustrates this dynamic. His unjust detention for over seven months, under conditions of isolation and legal abuse, is not an aberration, but part of a systematic strategy to preserve power.

This event will explore not only the barriers advocates face in these environments and the human cost of political imprisonment, but also the strategies available to fight it. Families and advocates of detainees play a crucial frontline role, often navigating trauma, stigma, and bureaucratic barriers while working for their loved ones' release.

PANELISTS:

  • Lilian Tintori: Director of the World Liberty Congress' Pathway to Freedom project; human rights advocate, and leader with first-hand experience as the spouse of a former political prisoner; 2025 Fisher Family Summer Fellow
  • Waleed Shawky: Egyptian human rights researcher and civic activist, co-founder of the April 6th Youth Movement; former political prisoner; 2025 Fisher Family Summer Fellow.
  • Gulika Reddy: Human rights advocate and Director of the International Human Rights and Conflict Resolution Clinic at Stanford Law School


Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, will share opening remarks.

Beatriz Magaloni
Beatriz Magaloni

William J. Perry Conference Room
Encina Hall, Second Floor, Central, C231

Open to Stanford affiliates only. Registration is not required.

Lilian Tintori
Waleed Shawky
Gulika Reddy
Panel Discussions
Date Label
Authors
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

At the 2025 Daniel Pearl Memorial Lecture, journalist and author Amir Tibon discussed how his family survived Hamas’ invasion from Gaza into Israel on Saturday, October 7, 2023, the history of Israeli-Gazan relations, as well as scenarios for the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“Rockets are falling,” Tibon said, reading a portion of his new book, The Gates of Gaza: A Story of Betrayal, Survival, and Home in Israel's Borderlands. “We [Amir Tibon, his wife Miri, and their two infant daughters] are locked in this room inside our house. We certainly had never heard a bullet cracking through a window and hitting a wall inside a sealed house. Let alone our house. But that's exactly what we were now hearing.”

In the May 12 discussion with Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Tibon described that harrowing day and the heroic account of how his father, retired Major General Noam Tibon, fought his way into Kibbutz Nahal-Oz, and eventually helped rescue the family.

The Daniel Pearl Memorial Lecture honors the life of Daniel Pearl (Class of '85), who was a journalist, musician, and family man dedicated to the ideals of peace and humanity. In 2002, Daniel was kidnapped and killed by terrorists in Pakistan while working as a foreign correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. The event was hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law.

An audience of nearly 200 guests filled Bechtel Conference Center to hear Tibon speak.
An audience of nearly 200 guests filled Bechtel Conference Center to hear Tibon speak. | Rod Searcey

‘Keep the girls calm and quiet’


For almost 10 hours on October 7, Tibon and his wife and daughters listened to the sounds of gunfire and rockets outside, while monitoring Hamas atrocities on their phones and sending desperate SOS messages from their darkened safe room. 

Tibon said, “We had only one advantage, which is that we could hear them, we could hear their bullets, we could hear their shouting, and if we managed to keep the girls calm and quiet, they wouldn't hear us. And so that was our mission, to keep the girls calm and quiet.” 

They did, waiting until about 4:00 pm when the family was eventually freed by Tibon’s father, who drove with his mother from Tel Aviv to rescue the besieged family. Along the way, his parents made key decisions to rescue wounded Israelis by taking them to the hospital.

Learning later on about his parents’ dangerous foray into a war zone — and the aid they offered along the way — Tibon gained a deeper insight about saving those in grave peril. This informs his moral stance on prioritizing the rescue of the remaining 58 hostages — alive and dead — still held by Hamas in Gaza, over the competing priority of dismantling Hamas as a military and governing organization:

“When I look today at the dilemma of the state of Israel, whether to continue the war after 20 months or to stop in order to save those who need immediate saving, I don't see a dilemma. You save those who need immediate saving, and then you continue the mission,” said Tibon, focusing on the fates of the approximately 20 living Israeli hostages still held in Gaza.

When Diamond asked him about the word “betrayal” in the book’s subtitle, Tibon said the dual meaning of the term is a conscious one. The word “betrayal” reflects two concepts — the failure of the Israeli government, military, and intelligence services to heed early danger warnings about a Hamas attack, and the disappointment about their neighbors in Gaza, with whom they had for years worked with on peace and reconciliation issues. 

He recalled kibbutz members who volunteered to take cancer patients from Gaza in their cars to Israeli hospitals so they could receive optimal medical treatments.

“This was a peace-seeking community that, for many years, advocated for peace and reconciliation,” he said.

Following the conversation, Tibon took questions from the audience.
Following the conversation, Tibon took questions from the audience. | Rod Searcey

As for accountability, Tibon emphasized the need for Israel to launch an independent and professional investigation into the October 7 catastrophe through a State Commission of Inquiry. Such an inquiry would examine the causes of the strategic, intelligence, defensive, and operational breakdowns experienced by Israel before, during, and after the attack, and would establish who was responsible for the multiple failures. 

“This is the strongest tool in the Israeli system for investigating failures of the state. It's a commission established by the government, headed by a former judge, that has all the powers of a seated court to invite witnesses and investigate,” he added, noting that the current government has not yet approved such an endeavor, despite about 70-85 percent of Israelis supporting such a commission.

Tibon said, “The government is refusing to do it because they are afraid of what will come out.”

‘Shifted public opinion’


The October 7 Hamas terrorist attack marked a major, and rather peculiar, shift in domestic Israeli politics, Tibon said.

“It shifted public opinion on the conflict to the right because there is a lack of belief in the peace process after this kind of thing. And at the same time, it significantly weakened the current right-wing government, which in all the public opinion polls is losing a lot of support,” he said.

He explained that this trend reveals that Israelis currently do not believe in a peace process and that they perceive an existential need to defend their families and homeland. 

At the same time, Israelis want a serious and competent government, and the existing right-leaning government is not viewed as such.

“We have to be led and managed by competent, serious people, and this government is not considered competent or serious by most of the Israeli public for obvious reasons,” he said.
 


Forever wars may be good for religious preachers, but they're not good for border communities. Border communities need to reach an end and go back and rebuild.
Amir Tibon


In his book, Tibon expresses deep empathy for the people who are suffering in Gaza, and he reflects on another subtitle, “hope.”

Hope can begin, he said, with saving the Israeli hostages and then ending the war. “Forever wars may be good for religious preachers, but they're not good for border communities. Border communities need to reach an end and go back and rebuild,” said Tibon.

He cited a Polish poet, who once wrote that after every war, somebody has to clean up. “We are the ones who are going to have to clean up and fix our own houses,” he said.

Tibon is an award-winning diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper. His story and book, The Gates of Gaza, was featured on 60 Minutes.

He, his wife, and daughters are currently living in temporary housing in north-central Israel.  

Diamond said, “This is a story of remarkable courage and tenacity from many quarters in the face of unspeakable terror and potentially paralyzing fear. It is quintessentially an Israeli story.”

A full recording of the conversation can be viewed here.

The 2025 Daniel Pearl Memorial Lecture was presented by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program in partnership with the Daniel Pearl Foundation, the Taube Center for Jewish Studies, and Hillel at Stanford

Read More

Yoav Heller presented during a Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies winter webinar.
News

Dr. Yoav Heller on Rebuilding Centrist Politics and Uniting Israelis

Dr. Heller, founder of the Fourth Quarter, discussed how grassroots centrist movements can overcome identity-driven polarization in Israel by fostering unity, especially in the wake of national tragedy, and emphasized the need for long-term internal peace-building and reimagining Israeli society’s future.
Dr. Yoav Heller on Rebuilding Centrist Politics and Uniting Israelis
Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat discusses diplomacy during a seminar hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program.
News

Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat on the Art of Diplomacy

In a seminar hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program, Eizenstat explored why diplomats succeed or fail, drawing from his firsthand experience with world leaders.
Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat on the Art of Diplomacy
Eugene Kandel presents via Zoom in a webinar hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Program.
News

Eugene Kandel on Tackling Israel’s Internal Existential Risks

Kandel's talk with Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Amichai Magen focused on his work at the Israel Strategic Futures Institute (ISFI) in diagnosing what he and his colleagues identify as internal existential risks for Israel and the policy ideas generated by ISFI in response to those risks.
Eugene Kandel on Tackling Israel’s Internal Existential Risks
Hero Image
Journalist and author Amir Tibon spoke with Larry Diamond at the May 12 event.
Journalist and author Amir Tibon spoke with Larry Diamond at the May 12 event.
Rod Searcey
All News button
1
Subtitle

Journalist Amir Tibon shared his family’s story of survival, betrayal, and hope for peace with a Stanford audience, while also offering insights on contemporary Israeli politics.

Date Label
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Argument & Key Findings


Hesham Sallam draws our attention to a surprising pattern: Egyptian Islamists and leftists have, for several generations, criticized each other on remarkably similar grounds. Their arguments have sometimes focused on Islam and left-wing political goals. But just as — if not more — frequently, they have focused on how each other’s agendas are inauthentic to Egyptian society and promoted to benefit foreign actors. It is true that the contents of their critiques have differed: Islamists denounce the left as betraying Egypt’s pure, Islamic nation while acting on behalf of “Zionists” or “western imperialists.” Meanwhile, leftists see Islamists as inauthentic to Egypt’s secular, pluralistic history, as well as advancing foreign interests. These differences notwithstanding, a common structure of political argument has been preserved across decades. 

The article introduces the history of Islamist-leftist debate in Egypt since the 1970s. Central to this history was the process of reappropriation: Islamists criticized the left, and the left responded by criticizing Islamists using more or less the same script. The study draws upon an array of Arabic sources likely unknown to readers outside of Egypt, including editorials, monographs, and public debates.

The Islamist Critique


The article first presents the intricacies of Egyptian Islamists’ critique of the left. There is a long history of Egyptian political elites denouncing left-wing politics as inauthentic and foreign. For example, Gamal Abdel-Nasser accused Egyptian communists of conspiring with Zionists and Soviets, while Anwar al-Sadat accused them of atheism and thus betraying Egypt’s Islamic essence. As leftists were repeatedly accused of disloyalty, nationalist ideas became even more dominant within leftist circles — this despite the historical suspicions of left-wing thinkers of nationalism as a distraction from class politics. The Egyptian case thus mirrors the trajectory of Europe’s internationalist labor movements during World War II, when leftist political goals were abandoned for state nationalism. In any case, the Islamist critique, which was led principally by the Muslim Brotherhood, regularly accused the left of foreign loyalties and a betrayal of Egyptian values. Over time, this critique was extended to secular Egyptians and deployed increasingly virulent language; for example, an academic critic of Islamism was denied promotion, ostensibly for his writings that were described by an Islamist detractor as “spreading cultural AIDS.” They also drew on prominent social science frameworks like Samuel Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations”: Egypt’s authentic Islamic nation was seen as pitted in an irresolvable clash against the atheistic West, which, they alleged, was simultaneously funding the Egyptian left. These are just a few of the examples Sallam uses to show how Islamists portrayed the left as inauthentic and disloyal, undermining its legitimacy in Egyptian politics.
 


As leftists were repeatedly accused of disloyalty, nationalist ideas became even more dominant within leftist circles.


The Leftist Critique


Sallam next shows us how the left struck back at their Islamist foes. A key process in this history concerns the Hosni Mubarak regime’s co-optation of influential leftists into the state’s cultural institutions. This occurred as a response to the Muslim Brotherhood’s electoral successes in the 1980s. Coincident with these institutional changes, leftists began appropriating the authenticity critique. They claimed that Islamists were engaged not in building a pure Islamic state and society, but in a narrow project meant to advance their own political standing. Rejecting the Islamist critique of them as atheists, leftists accused their opponents of weaponizing Islam and betraying its true essence. They rejected the distinction between so-called violent and nonviolent Islamism, on the grounds that nonviolent Islamists still were willing to justify violence. Islamists were said to be working on behalf of foreign interests like Sudanese president Omar Al-Bashir, whose designs on Egyptian territory went unnoticed by Islamists. The Brotherhood was deemed a cult-like vehicle for indoctrinating and promoting foreign goals, especially those of the Gulf. Far from authentic to Egyptian society, Islamists were seen as holding Egyptian Muslims in contempt for their alleged heresies. And in one of the most surprising appropriations, leftists claimed that Islamists were in fact quite similar to both Zionists and imperialists: all three sought to dominate the Middle East through sectarian politics. The Brotherhood’s Egyptian constitution was denigrated for being indistinguishable from versions published in Europe and Pakistan. Especially inauthentic to Egyptian society was the Brotherhood’s view of religious minorities as second-class citizens; this was deemed a fundamental betrayal of Egypt’s national essence, namely secular pluralism. These counter-critiques helped the left frame itself as the true guardian of the Egyptian nation.
 


In one of the most surprising appropriations, leftists claimed that Islamists were in fact quite similar to both Zionists and imperialists: all three sought to dominate the Middle East through sectarian politics.


Beyond Speech


Importantly, the Islamist-leftist debates were not mere rhetoric, but served as a basis for political action, especially when it came to questions of cooperation. For example, after the Islamist critic Farag Foda was assassinated, the so-called ‘moderate’ Islamist Mohamed Al-Ghazali defended his assassins; some leftists used these events to justify their refusal to cooperate with Islamists. More generally, they argued that Islamists’ quest for a religious state would only lead to political violence and exclusion, further grounds to reject compromise. Yet claims about authenticity and nationalism were also used to justify cooperation, as when leftists argued that both they and the Brotherhood were natural allies in the fight against foreign imperialism and Zionism. It is not clear whether a less confrontational approach would have helped Islamists and leftists cooperate against Egypt’s successive dictators, but their divisive rhetoric almost certainly did not help matters.
 


The Islamist-leftist debates were not mere rhetoric, but served as a basis for political action, especially when it came to questions of cooperation.


Contributions


The article will help readers understand why Egyptian politics has become increasingly marked by groups’ ‘affective’ hatreds for one another, as opposed to normal political disagreements. By weaving the themes of treason and inauthenticity through decades of history, Sallam shows us why this new status quo is not surprising. Affective polarization has led many Egyptians to view their opponents as unworthy of political inclusion, consistent with the rise of a global populism that emphasizes “us vs. them” distinctions. Sallam fleshes this out by relaying the different responses among leftists and Islamists to Egypt’s 2013 military coup, which ousted the Brotherhood leader Morsi. Leftists called the coup a necessary evil to counter foreign influences seeking to establish an Islamic state, while Islamists accused the left of being sponsored by the West. 

Readers will see the conflict between Islamists and leftists as not just fleeting moments of political disagreement, but a generations-long battle for domination in the realm of ideas.

*Research-in-Brief prepared by Adam Fefer.

Hero Image
Mosques with Minarets and Traditional Architecture of Historic Cairo - stock photo Tomasz Bobrzynski via Getty Images
All News button
0
Subtitle

CDDRL Research-in-Brief [4.5-minute read]

Date Label
-

McMurtry Building, Oshman Hall
355 Roth Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Film Screenings
Date Label
Authors
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Nearly every day for the last three years, Russian missiles, drones, and artillery fire have struck Ukraine, killing thousands of people and damaging power plants, schools, hospitals, and homes in what has become the largest conflict in Europe since World War II.

“You live in constant fear for your loved ones,” said Oleksandra Matviichuk, founder of the Center for Civil Liberties and a participant in a February 24 virtual panel discussion with Ukrainian leaders in Kyiv on the war’s impact on daily life, the global democratic order, and Ukraine’s path ahead. The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law hosted the event on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

“It's very difficult to be in a large-scale war for three years. You live in total uncertainty,” Matviichuk said.
 


It's very difficult to be in a large-scale war for three years. You live in total uncertainty.
Oleksandra Matviichuk
Founder, Center for Civil Liberties


Kathryn Stoner, the Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), introduced the panelists, and Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, moderated the discussion.

On the frontlines, outnumbered Ukrainian troops have waged a stiff resistance, while a mass influx of Russian troops, with enormous loss of life, have made incremental but not decisive progress. Hundreds of thousands have died or been injured on both sides. Talks to end the war are underway between the Trump Administration and Russia, with Ukraine and European nations not currently invited to participate.

Oleksandra Matviichuk (L), founder of the Center for Civil Liberties, speaks about her experiences in Ukraine over the last three years.
Oleksandra Matviichuk (L) spoke about her experiences in Ukraine over the last three years. | Rod Searcey

‘We will cease to exist’


Matviichuk, who was a visiting scholar from 2017-2018 with the Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program at CDDRL, noted the conflict has actually been going on for 11 years, since 2014 when Russia invaded and occupied Crimea. Today, she said, there is no safe place in Ukraine where people can hide from Russian rockets. “Just two days ago, Russia sent 263 drones against Kyiv and other peaceful cities in Ukraine.”

Matviichuk described how Russia seeks to ban the Ukrainian language and culture, and how they take Ukrainian children to Russia to put them in Russian education camps. “They told them they are not Ukrainian children, but they are Russian children.”

If the West does not provide Ukraine with security guarantees in a peace plan, then “it means that we will cease to exist. There will be no more of our people,” Matviichuk said.

Oleksandra Ustinova, a member of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's Parliament, said, “If we talk about life in Ukraine now, it's complicated, especially during the last week after the Munich Security Conference,” where Vice President JD Vance delivered a speech that focused on internal politics in Europe.

“People do not understand how we thought the United States was our biggest partner,” she said.
 


People do not understand how we thought the United States was our biggest partner.
Oleksandra Ustinova
Member of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's Parliament


At one point, Ustinova noted that she could not hear the conversation in her headphones because sirens were blaring as Russia had just launched an aerial attack on Kyiv.

She said that Russian President Putin and others who seek a Ukrainian election are trying to set a trap because Ukrainian law does not allow an election during martial law, which Ukraine has declared because of the Russian invasion. Plus, it would involve the demobilization of more than 400,000 troops.

“It would be very easy to fake elections, and that’s what the Russians would do,” Ustinova said. “It’s a trap. They're going to find where to put the money into their own candidate.”

Ustinova, who was also a visiting scholar with the Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program from 2018-2019, said, “We can see that this is a new reality, not only in the Ukrainian war, but in foreign relations, and hopefully the Europeans can unite. Because if they don't, it will be a disaster for everyone.”

Oleksandra Ustinova joined the CDDRL-sponsored event virtually via Zoom.
Oleksandra Ustinova joined the CDDRL-sponsored event virtually via Zoom. | Rod Searcey

Oleksiy Honcharuk, a former Ukrainian prime minister from 2019-2020 who was the Bernard and Susan Liautaud Visiting Fellow at FSI in 2021, said, “I think that we are still strong. My prediction is that in three or six months, Ukraine can double the damage to Russia on the battlefield from a technological perspective with drones.”

But time is very expensive now, he added, because every single day, every single hour, Ukrainians are paying with the lives of their best people and soldiers.

Honcharuk said Ukrainians are “shocked” about the position of the United States’ recent vote against a United Nations resolution condemning the Russian invasion as well as the Trump Administration’s position on talks with Russia.

“This is exactly the moment when all the people of goodwill should do everything possible to support Ukraine in this very complicated time,” said Honcharuk.

Regarding the UN vote, McFaul said, “I am shocked, I am appalled, I am embarrassed as an American to see those votes today. We are voting with the most horrific dictators in the world.”

Oleksiy Honcharuk (R) spoke to a packed audience in Encina Hall.
Oleksiy Honcharuk (R) spoke to a packed audience in Encina Hall. | Rod Searcey

‘Not about people’


Matviichuk said, “Putin started this war of aggression, not because he wanted to occupy just more Ukrainian land. Putin started this war of aggression because he wanted to occupy and destroy the whole of Ukraine and even go further. He wants to forcibly restore the Russian Empire — he dreams about his legacy, his logic is historical.”

This ultimately means that Ukraine needs real security guarantees, she said. “President Trump said he started the peace negotiation because he cares about people dying in this war. So, if President Trump cares about people dying in this war, he also has to care about people dying in Russian prisons.”

She explained that she’s spoken with hundreds of people who have survived brutal conditions in Russian captivity. And so, it’s surprising, Matviichuk said, to hear political statements from U.S. officials “about natural minerals and elections, about possible territorial concessions, but not about people.”

Lack of Global Support


Serhiy Leshchenko, an advisor to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff, spoke about the recent overtures by the Trump Administration to Russia.

“This is a new reality we are living in now. Frankly, my understanding is that Ukrainians are not very shocked with what's going on because we went through so many shocks within the last three years.”

Acknowledging the lack of an American flag at an allied event this week in Kyiv, Leshchenko said Ukrainians know perfectly well that perception is reality.

“It means that now we have an absolutely different perception. So, it’s obvious that there is no global security infrastructure anymore. It’s obvious that NATO is not an answer anymore,” said Leshchenko, an alumnus of the 2013 cohort of CDDRL’s Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program.

Serhiy Leshchenko (R) spoke virtually via Zoom at an event hosted by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law on February 24, 2025.
Serhiy Leshchenko (R) spoke virtually via Zoom at an event hosted by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law on February 24, 2025. | Rod Searcey

‘Sad occasion’


In her opening remarks, Stoner noted, “We’re here on what is actually a sad occasion, which is that Feb. 24 marks three years since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

She said, “Only about less than 1% of land has changed hands since December 2022, so Ukraine is not losing. Ukraine is at least defending what it has, and it remains in Kursk (Russia).”

McFaul said, “It’s in our national interest that we do not line up with Belarus and Russia and North Korea – that holds negative consequences for our future security and prosperity. I actually think our country cares about values.”

He added that the notion that all America cares about is mineral rights, business deals, and hotels in Gaza is not the America he knows.

McFaul told the panelists, “I've witnessed and observed what you’ve been doing for your country, and we are just extremely fortunate to be connected to all of you, whom I consider to be heroic individuals in the world.”

A full recording of the event can be viewed below, and additional commentary can be found from The Stanford Daily.

Read More

Keith Darden presented his research in a CDDRL/TEC REDS Seminar on February 6, 2025.
News

War and the Re-Nationalization of Europe

American University Political Scientist Keith Darden examines how the Russian-Ukrainian war is reshaping European institutions.
War and the Re-Nationalization of Europe
Yoshiko Herrera presented her research in a REDS Seminar co-hosted by CDDRL and TEC on January 16, 2025.
News

Identities and War: Lessons from Russia’s War on Ukraine

Political Science scholar Yoshiko Herrera examines how identity shapes the causes, conduct, and consequences of war, especially in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Identities and War: Lessons from Russia’s War on Ukraine
Vladimir Kara-Murza onstage with Michael McFaul at Stanford University.
News

Gone Today, Here Tomorrow: Vladimir Kara-Murza on the Fight for Democracy in Russia

During the 2024 Wesson Lecture, former political prisoner and democracy activist Vladimir Kara-Murza called for transparency and accountability from within Russia and more support from the international community to establish and grow Russian democracy.
Gone Today, Here Tomorrow: Vladimir Kara-Murza on the Fight for Democracy in Russia
Hero Image
(Clockwise from left) Oleksandra Matviichuk, Oleksandra Ustinova, Oleksiy Honcharuk, and Serhiy Leshchenko joined FSI Director Michael McFaul to discuss Ukraine's future on the three-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion.
(Clockwise from left) Oleksandra Matviichuk, Oleksandra Ustinova, Oleksiy Honcharuk, and Serhiy Leshchenko joined FSI Director Michael McFaul to discuss Ukraine's future on the three-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion.
Rod Searcey
All News button
1
Subtitle

FSI scholars and civic and political Ukrainian leaders discussed the impact of the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Date Label
Authors
Khushmita Dhabhai
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

On January 31, 2025, the Program on Arab Reform and Development (ARD) at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) hosted a webinar examining the future of Syria following the December 2024 collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime. The event featured Bassam Haddad, a leading expert on Syria and Associate Professor at George Mason University. Haddad spoke in conversation with ARD Associate Director Hesham Sallam. The discussion focused on the factors that led to Assad’s fall, the role of international actors, and the uncertain prospects of Syria under its new leadership, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Haddad emphasized that while many Syrians welcomed the end of Assad’s decades-long rule, the transition has raised serious concerns about the country’s future. Over time, Assad’s regime had become weakened by corruption, economic decline, and an inability to provide basic services. By late 2024, Syria’s military was fragmented, demoralized, and lacked external support. When HTS forces advanced into Aleppo, Homs, and Damascus, the Syrian Army largely dissolved without significant resistance.

A key factor in Assad’s downfall was the unexpected inaction of his traditional allies. Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah — longtime backers of the regime — did not intervene. Iran, facing domestic unrest and wary of escalating tensions with Israel and the U.S., chose to stay out. Hezbollah, weakened by clashes with Israel, lacked the resources to help. Russia, preoccupied elsewhere, had seemingly accepted Assad’s fate. The lack of resistance suggests that the transfer of power may have been prearranged rather than a purely military victory.

The most immediate turning point came when Israel launched airstrikes that destroyed over 80% of Syria’s remaining military infrastructure. Notably, neither HTS nor other international actors responded to these strikes, fueling speculation about behind-the-scenes agreements between Turkey, Qatar, and Western powers.

With Assad gone, Ahmad Al-Shara, the leader of HTS, was declared Syria’s new president. However, Haddad noted that this transition was neither democratic nor transparent. Al-Shara, who was previously affiliated with Jabhat Al-Nusra (Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch), has rebranded himself as a moderate leader, promising inclusion and reform. However, Haddad pointed to major contradictions between his words and actions. The Syrian Army and security services have been dissolved, leading to concerns over instability. Government positions have been filled by HTS loyalists, excluding secular and nationalist opposition. Additionally, the new military structure requires recruits to undergo Sharia law training, raising fears about the ideological direction of the new government.

Syria’s transition is also deeply shaped by regional and international power struggles. Haddad stressed that HTS could not have taken power without Turkey’s approval. Turkey, focused on containing Kurdish forces in northern Syria, has played a key role in shaping post-Assad politics. Meanwhile, the U.S. recently announced its military withdrawal from Syria, leaving Kurdish forces vulnerable to both HTS control and Turkish expansion. Qatar and other Gulf states are increasingly involved in shaping Syria’s economy and political trajectory.

Looking ahead, Haddad identified five critical challenges that will determine Syria’s future:

  1. Sovereignty and territorial integrity – Can Syria reclaim full control of its territory, or will it remain influenced by foreign actors?
  2. Inclusion and transparency – Will the new government allow for democratic participation, or will HTS consolidate power?
  3. Economic recovery – Sanctions and economic devastation pose serious obstacles to stability.
  4. Rule of law and governance – No clear roadmap exists for elections, legal institutions, or constitutional reforms.
  5. Rebuilding and refugee return – Over five million Syrian refugees remain abroad, with no structured plan for their safe return.


While Assad’s downfall marks a historic moment, Syria’s future remains uncertain and fragile. Many Syrians who once celebrated the regime’s collapse now fear that HTS’s dominance will not bring real change. The gap between promised reforms and actual governance policies has fueled skepticism.

Read More

screen shot 2020 05 13 at 2 34 19 pm
News

Samer Abboud Examines the Politics of Exclusion in Syria [VIDEO]

Samer Abboud Examines the Politics of Exclusion in Syria [VIDEO]
screen shot 2018 11 07 at 7 25 31 pm
News

Voices from Syria Narrate Stories of Revolution and Conflict

Voices from Syria Narrate Stories of Revolution and Conflict
screen shot 2016 02 21 at 9 51 36 am
Commentary

Bassam Haddad Analyzes the Root Causes and Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising [VIDEO]

Bassam Haddad Analyzes the Root Causes and Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising [VIDEO]
Hero Image
Bassam Haddad
All News button
1
Subtitle

In a conversation with ARD Associate Director Hesham Sallam, Bassam Haddad, a leading expert on Syria and Associate Professor at George Mason University, addressed the factors that led to Assad’s fall, the role of international actors, and the uncertain prospects of Syria under its new leadership.

Date Label
-
Aerial Drone Flyby Shot in Kyiv - Biggest National flag of Ukraine. Aerial view. Spivoche Pole, Kiev
Aerial shot of the Motherland Monument and the Biggest National Flag of Ukraine in Kyiv, Ukraine, photographed prior to February 24, 2022. | Oleksandr Tkachenko, Getty Images

February 24 marks the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Though Ukraine has won many battles, the war for Ukraine’s right to exist as an independent, democratic nation rages on at a very steep human cost.

To commemorate this important day for Ukraine and the world, the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law is honored to host a panel of high-profile Ukrainian leaders currently based in Kyiv for a discussion of the impact of the war on daily life, the global democratic order, and Ukraine's future.

The panel will be introduced by Kathryn Stoner, the Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, and moderated by Michael McFaul, Director of FSI, the Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies in the Department of Political Science, and a former U.S. ambassador to Russia.

Lunch will be available for in-person attendees. For those unable to join us in person, a livestream of the panel will be available via Zoom.

Meet the Panelists

Oleksiy Honcharuk

Oleksiy Honcharuk

Former Prime Minister of Ukraine
Learn More

Oleksiy Honcharuk served as the 17th prime minister of Ukraine from 2019-2020, during which time he introduced important policy initiatives in Ukraine including the institution of business privatization processes, efforts to combat black markets, and the launch of the Anti-Raider Office to respond to cases of illegal property seizures. Prior to serving as prime minister, Honcharuk was deputy head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine and was a member of the National Reforms Council under the president of Ukraine. In 2021, he was the Bernard and Susan Liautaud Visiting Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI).

Serhiy Leshchenko

Serhiy Leshchenko

Advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Chief of Staff
Learn More


Serhiy Leshchenko is formerly a journalist with Ukrainska Pravda and member of Ukrainian Parliament (2014-2019). He first rose to political prominence during Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan Revolution, and has continued to serve in government and civil society since. He is an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief-of-staff, working and living in the governmental bunkers during the start of Russia's invasion and siege on Kyiv in 2022. He is an alumnus of the 2013 cohort of the Draper Hills Summer Fellows program (now the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program) at FSI’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University.

oleksandra hs

Oleksandra Matviichuk

Founder of the Center for Civil Liberties
Learn More


Oleksandra Matviichuk is a human rights advocate and founder of the Center for Civil Liberties, which was recognized as a co-recipient of the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize. The mission of the Center for Civil Liberties is to protect human rights and establish democracy in Ukraine and the OSCE region. The organization develops legislative proposals, exercises public oversight over law enforcement agencies and judiciary, conducts educational activities for young people, and implements international solidarity programs. Matviichuk was a visiting scholar from 2017-2018 with the Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law.

sasha

Oleksandra Ustinova

Member of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's Parliament
Learn More


Oleksandra Ustinova is a member of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament. Since the beginning of Russia's invasion in 2022, she has met repeatedly with lawmakers in the United States to advocate on behalf of Ukraine, including an address before the U.S. House of Representatives on February 28, 2022. Prior to her government service, Ustinova was the head of communications and anti-corruption in healthcare projects at the Anti-Corruption Action Center (ANTAC), one of the leading organizations on anti-corruption reform in Ukraine. She was a visiting scholar with the Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law from 2018-2019.

Kathryn Stoner
Kathryn Stoner
Michael A. McFaul
Michael McFaul

In-person: Bechtel Conference Center (Encina Hall, First floor, 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)

Virtual: Zoom

Members of the media interested in attending this event should contact fsi-communications@stanford.edu.

Oleksiy Honcharuk Former Prime Minister of Ukraine
Serhiy Leshchenko Advisor to Ukrainian President Vlodomyr Zelenskyy's chief of staff
Oleksandra Matviichuk Founder of the Center for Civil Liberties, 2022 Nobel Peace Prize recipient
Oleksandra Ustinova Member of Verkhovna Rada
Panel Discussions
Date Label
Authors
Amichai Magen
News Type
Commentary
Date
Paragraphs

Lore has it that the late President Ronald Reagan loved telling “the one about the pony.” In his rendition of the story, the parents of twin brothers—one a diehard pessimist, the other an eternal optimist—consulted a psychologist who recommended a unique experiment. On the twins’ next birthday the pessimist was shown into a room packed with the most expensive gifts the parents could afford, while the optimist was invited into a room full of horse manure. An hour later, when the parents checked on the pessimist, he complained bitterly about some arcane detail in one of his expensive gifts. In contrast, when they cautiously opened the door to check in on the optimist, they found him digging joyfully through the manure. “Mom! Dad! This is incredible!” the optimist shouted with glee. “With all the shit piled up in this room, there’s got to be a pony!”

Read the full article in Persuasion.

Hero Image
Helicopter with three released hostages on January 19, 2025.
Helicopter with three released hostages on January 19, 2025.
Nir Keidar/Anadolu via Getty Images
All News button
1
Subtitle

Amichai Magen hunts for the pony in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

Date Label
Subscribe to Conflict