Policy Analysis
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In an article written for the current issue of the Washington Quarterly by Larry Diamond, Michael McFaull and Abbas Milani, suggests that the U.S. government seek a comprehensive agreement with Tehran that would "end the economic embargo, unfreeze all Iranian assets, restore full diplomatic relations, support the initiation of talks on Iran's entry into the WTO, encourage foreign investment, and otherwise move toward a normal relationship with the Iranian government." In exchange, Iran would have to suspend its nuclear weapons program in a verifiable manner, accept fundamental human-rights principles and terminate its "support for terrorist groups and activities, including training, intelligence support, and weapons shipments for Hezbollah, Hamas, and radical Shi'ite militias in Iraq." As much as possible, it is important that the people of Iran are made aware of the proposal and its benefits: "badly needed economic development, foreign investment, increased employment, new educational prospects at home and abroad and more generally an end to Iran's international isolation." Diamond, McFaul, and Milani think the Iranian regime will probably reject this grand bargain, but by doing so the mullahs "further undermine their already weak legitimacy with a young, restive, and suffering people. The blunt exposure of the mullahs' obsession with defending their own power and privilege at the expense of the public could intensify popular unrest, further divide an already splintered regime, and eventually create the conditions for regime crisis and transition to democracy. Heads we win, tails they lose."

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Journal Articles
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
The Washington Quarterly
Authors
Michael A. McFaul
Larry Diamond
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This talk will discuss the study of a new factor that makes civil war more likely: the inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society. Lacking this ability, both elected and unelected governments pursue public policies that leave citizens less well-off and more prone to revolt. At the same time, these actors have a reduced ability to build an anti-insurgency capacity in the first place, since they are less able to prevent anti-insurgents from themselves mounting coups. However, while reducing the risk of conflict overall, increasing credibility can, over some range, worsen the effects of natural resources and ethnic fragmentation on civil war. Empirical tests using various measures of political credibility support these conclusions.

About the speaker:

Philip Keeferis a Lead Research Economist in the Development Research Group of the World Bank. Since receiving his PhD in Economics from Washington University at St. Louis in 1991, he has worked continuously on the interaction of institutions, political economy and economic development on issues ranging from the impact of insecure property rights on economic growth to the effect of political credibility on the fiscal and monetary policy choices of governments. His work has appeared in journals ranging from the Quarterly Journal of Economics to the American Review of Political Science.

CISAC Conference Room

Philip Keefer Lead Research Economist, Development Research Group Speaker the World Bank
Seminars
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This is a Special Seminar within the CDDRL Taiwan Democracy Program (co-sponsored with Shorenstein APARC).

Richard Bush is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Director of its Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies. The Center serves as a locus for research, analysis, and debate to enhance policy development on the pressing political, economic, and security issues facing Northeast Asia and U.S. interests in the region.

Bush came to Brookings in July 2002, after serving almost five years as the Chairman and Managing Director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the mechanism through which the United States Government conducts substantive relations with Taiwan in the absence of diplomatic relations.

Dr. Bush began his professional career in 1977 with the China Council of The Asia Society. In July 1983 he became a staff consultant on the House Foreign Affairs Committee's Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs. In January 1993 he moved up to the full committee, where he worked on Asia issues and served as liaison with Democratic Members. In July 1995, he became National Intelligence Officer for East Asia and a member of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which coordinates the analytic work of the intelligence committee. He left the NIC in September 1997 to become head of AIT.

Richard Bush received his undergraduate education at Lawrence University in Appleton, Wisconsin. He did his graduate work in political science at Columbia University, getting an M.A. in 1973 and his Ph.D. in 1978. He is the author of a number of articles on U.S. relations with China and Taiwan, and of At Cross Purposes, a book of essays on the history of America's relations with Taiwan.

Philippines Conference Room

Richard C. Bush Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, and Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Speaker The Brookings Institution
SpeakerSpeaker
Seminars
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Ambassador Pascual is Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies, at the Brookings Institute in Washington, D.C. Previously, he served as Coordinator for Reconstruction & Stabilization at the U.S. Department of State, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, and Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia at the National Security Council.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Ambassador Carlos Pascual Vice President Speaker Brookings Institute
Seminars
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The conference, organized by the Taiwan Democracy Program of the Center on The conference, organized by the Taiwan Democracy Program of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), will consider what Taiwan's democratic development may teach us about possible future democratic development in mainland China.

DAY I: SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL CHANGE: COMPARING THE ROC AND THE PRC

Morning Session (8:30 am - 12:30 am):

  • Introduction
  • Panel 1: The Impact of Economic Development on Political Culture and Social Structure
  • Panel 2: Civil Society and Civic Resistance

Afternoon Session (1:30 pm - 4:10 pm):

  • Panel 3: Political Institutional Change
  • Panel 4: The International Context

Keynote Speach (7:30 pm - 8:30 pm):

  • The Honorable James C. F. Huang, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Republic of China (Taiwan)

DAY II: WILL CHINA FOLLOW TAIWAN'S PATH TO DEMOCRACY? HOW WILL CHINA CHANGE POLITICALLY IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES

Morning Session (8:45 am - 12:00 pm):

  • Panel 5: Future Political Change in the PRC: Adaptation or Decay
  • Panel 6: China's Economic Development and Its Consequences

Afternoon Session (1:00 pm - 5:00 pm):

  • Panel 7: Scenarios for Change
  • Panel 8: External Factor
  • Round Table Conclusion: What Lessons Does Taiwan's Past Hold for China's Future?

 

Oksenberg Conference Room

Conferences
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Rami Khouri is editor-at-large of the Beirut-based Daily Star newspaper, published throughout the Middle East with the International Herald Tribune. He is an internationally syndicated journalist, author, and director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut. He is currently a visiting fellow with the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University.

Mr. Khouri will speak about the war in Lebanon this summer. He will provide an analysis of the Israeli-Hezbollah war and discuss its fallout for Lebanese society and government, and its impact on the region's power dynamics. He will also comment on escalating violence in Iraq, Afghanistan, and heightening tensions between the U.S. and political movements in the region, including Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas.

Building 420, Room 40

Rami G. Khouri Director Speaker Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut
Lectures
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