Security

FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.

Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions. 

Authors
Larry Diamond
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Professor Larry Diamond, CDDRL Faculty Associate, and Director of the Program on Democracy at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law writes in a January 9, 2005 New York Times Op ed piece that holding elections too soon in Iraq could actually be bad for the long term development and consolidation of Iraqi democracy. Diamond warns that badly timed and ill-prepared elections could increase political polarization and violence by effectively disenfranchising parts of the Sunni Arab population in Iraq. Opposition to January 30 elections in Iraq goes far beyond religious fanatics and defenders of the old order to even moderate and democratic political actors who do not see a way for the elections to be held fairly and on time. Full article available with purchase.
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The U.S.-led reconstruction effort has so far failed to establish democratic institutions in Iraq. But as troubled as that effort has been, it provides valuable lessons for future nation-building endeavors.

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Journal of Democracy
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Larry Diamond
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Several influential commentators have suggested recently that democratization in developing countries produces political instability, ethnic conflict, and poor economic outcomes. The authors of this paper show that the data do not support the view that democratization is bad for economic performance. Our analysis reveals that major democratic transitions have, if anything, a positive effect on economic growth in the short run. This is especially true for the poorest countries of the world and those that are marked by sharp ethnic divisions. Democratizations tend to follow periods of low growth rather than precede them. Moreover, democratic transitions are associated with a decline in growth volatility. Systematic analysis therefore uncovers a picture that is considerably more favorable to democratization.

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CDDRL Working Papers
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A unique publication exploring the opportunities for addressing ten of the most serious challenges facing the world today: Climate Change, Communicable Diseases, Conflicts, Education, Financial Instability, Corruption, Migration, Malnutrition and Hunger, Trade Barriers, Access to Water. In a world fraught with problems and challenges, we need to gauge how to achieve the greatest good with our money. Global Crises, Global Solutions provides a rich set of arguments and data for prioritising our response most effectively. Each problem is introduced by a world-renowned expert defining the scale of the problem and describing the costs and benefits of a range of policy options to improve the situation. Each challenge is evaluated by economists from North America, Europe and China who attempt a ranking of the most promising options. Whether you agree or disagree with the analysis or conclusions, Global Crises, Global Solutions provides a serious, yet accessible, springboard for debate and discussion.

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Cambridge University Press, in "Global Crises, Global Solutions"
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Peter Blair Henry
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Ideally, a body of law comprises a set of coherent and consistent rules. These rules contribute to the creation of an environment that is predictable, efficacious, and just. Most international lawyers hope, expect, or believe that such a body of a law can exist for international system. This is a fool's errand.

Clear bodies of international law may develop in specific issue areas, but only if they create self-enforcing equilibria; that is, if the relevant parties, those with the ability to violate the rule, believe that they would be worse off if they did. Even when self-enforcing equilibria do exist, they last only so long as the interests and capabilities of actors, which may always change, generate a structure of payoffs that induces continued rule adherence. Many issues, including core questions related to sovereignty, will never be able to generate self-enforcing equilibria in the first place.

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Michigan Journal of International Law
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Stephen D. Krasner
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After more than a decade of reform efforts in Africa, much of the optimism over the continent's prospects has been replaced by widespread "Afropessimism." But to what extent is either view well founded? Democratic Reform in Africa plumbs the key issues in the contemporary African experience - including intrastate conflict, corruption, and the development of civil society - highlighting the challenges and evaluating the progress of political and economic change.

Case studies of Botswana, Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa complement the thematic chapters, exploring the complex interactions between democracy and development.

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Lynne Rienner Publishers in "Democratic Reform in Africa: The Quality of Progress", E. Gyimah-Boadi, ed.
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Larry Diamond
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The report presented here is the result of several months of meetings and debate. It represents an effort to lay out the broad contours of a transatlantic strategy to promote democracy and human development in the Broader Middle East could and should look like. The authors challenge us to go beyond current conventional wisdom and propose the building blocks of a grand strategy to help the broader Middle East transform itself. Their ideas they present are intended to spur further debate and discussion, including with democrats and reformers in the region itself.

The German Marshall Fund is proud to present this strategy report as the Istanbul Paper #1 in the run-up to the NATO Istanbul summit. This paper is intended to help further a dialogue that has already begun across the Atlantic and with the region but which now must be deepened. In doing so, we hope to make a contribution to greater understanding and cooperation across the Atlantic on one of the key challenges of our era.

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Policy Briefs
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States
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Larry Diamond
Michael A. McFaul
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Kimberly Marten is a tenured associate professor of political science at Barnard College, Columbia University, and also teaches at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA).

She earned her Ph.D. at Stanford in 1991, and held both pre-doc and post-doc fellowships at CISAC. She has written three books: Enforcing the Peace: Learning from the Imperial Past (Columbia Univ. Press, 2004), Weapons, Culture, and Self-Interest: Soviet Defense Managers in the New Russia (Columbia University Press, 1997), and Engaging the Enemy: Organization Theory and Soviet Military Innovation (Princeton University Press, 1993), which received the Marshall Shulman Prize. Her numerous book chapters and journal articles include a Washington Quarterly piece in Winter 2002-3, "Defending against Anarchy: From War to Peacekeeping in Afghanistan," as well as op-eds in the New York Times and International Herald Tribune.

In May 2004 she was embedded for a week with the Canadian Forces then leading the ISAF peace mission in Kabul. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Program on New Approaches to Russian Security (PONARS). Her current research asks whether warlords and gangs can be changed from potential spoilers to stakeholders in state-building processes.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room, East 207, Encina Hall

Kimberly Marten Associate Professor of Political Science Barnard College
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Professor Peter Wallensteen of Uppsala University in Sweden will deliver a talk on the efficacy of conflict prevention strategies in the developing world. Wallensteen has served as an advisor to the High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, Appointed by Secretary General of the United Nations.

Encina Basement Conference Room

Peter Wallensteen Dag Hammarskjöld Professor of Peace and Conflict Research Uppsala University, Sweden
Seminars
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Daron Acemoglu is Charles P. Kindleberger Professor of Applied Economics in the Department of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a member of the Economic Growth program of the Canadian Institute of Advanced Research. He is also affiliated with the National Bureau Economic Research, Center for Economic Performance, and Center for Economic Policy Research.

His work has been published in leading scholarly journals, including the American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, Quarterly Journal Economics and Review of Economic Studies to name a few. Daron Acemoglu's research covers a wide range of areas within economics, including political economy, economic development and growth, human capital theory, growth theory, technical change, and search theory. Acemoglu is also the editor of the Review of Economics and Statistics, and associate editor of the Journal of Economic Growth.

Abstract of paper presented in this research seminar

This paper develops a model where there is a trade-off between the enforcement of the property rights of different groups. An "oligarchic" society, where political power is in the hands of major producers, protects their property rights, but also tends to erect significant entry barriers, violating the property rights of future producers. Democracy, where political power is more widely diffused, imposes redistributive taxes on the producers, but tends to avoid entry barriers. When taxes in democracy are high and the distortions caused by entry barriers are low, an oligarchic society achieves greater efficiency. Nevertheless, because comparative advantage in entrepreneurship shifts away from the incumbents, the inefficiency created by entry barriers in oligarchy deteriorates over time. The typical pattern is therefore one of the rise and decline of oligarchic societies: of two otherwise identical societies, the one with an oligarchic organization will first become richer, but later fall behind the democratic society. I also discuss how democratic societies may be better able to take advantage of new technologies, how an oligarchic society might transition to democracy because of within-elite conflict, and how the unequal distribution of income in oligarchy supports the oligarchic institutions and may keep them in place even when they become significantly costly to society.

Encina Basement Conference Room

Daron Acemoglu Professor of Economics MIT
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