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During an April 18 address at Stanford University, Colombian President Gustavo Petro delivered a dire warning about the climate crisis and urged the world’s nations to transition to cleaner and greener energy.

“We are living in times that are the beginning of the extinction of humankind,” said President Petro, noting that the changes in climate are already visible and have greatly accelerated since the dawn of the Industrial Age a few centuries ago.

"The logical and coherent answer, like the one given at the end of the 19th century, is that humanity would have to organize itself to undertake a world revolution against capital," said Petro, who was elected in 2022 on a democratic reformist agenda. 

The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), in partnership with the Center for Latin American Studies, Stanford in Government, and the Stanford Society for Latin American Politics, sponsored and hosted the event, which was largely organized by students. 

The markets will not fix the climate crisis and save humanity.
Gustavo Petro
President of Colombia

President Petro, an economist by training who specializes in environmental and population development, said, “We have an economic system that links cheap labor, carbon-based fuels, and profits” and “we’re facing a very serious global political problem — the problems of World War II, the Cold War are nothing compared to what we’re facing now.”

Humankind, Petro said, must “join together in a revolution against capital.” He called for more “power to the people” and that all states around the world operate in a multilateral approach to address ways to alleviate the climate crisis.

“The markets will not fix the climate crisis and save humanity,” and a new type of economy, one that’s not driven by carbon-based profits but by the general welfare of all people, must emerge to ensure the survival of future generations.

He said the origins of the crisis began with the current Anthropocene Era, which describes the most recent period in Earth’s history when human activity started to have a significant impact on the planet's climate and ecosystems. The “greedy and never-ending consumption of products related to fossil fuel energy” has landed humanity in its current predicament.

“We, the consumers, are the guilty and the ones to blame,” Petro said.

The Colombian president said that fossil fuels are used to maximize profits and that the climate crisis is the logical result of the accumulation of capital in the hands of a few.

And on top of this, he added, the political and economic establishments haven’t historically listened to the science about what happens when carbon is issued into the atmosphere and the social imbalance that follows. He expressed doubt that the current system of capitalism can achieve environmental progress based on the current data he observes.

“To leave markets with free reign will not lead to the maximum well-being of all, but virtually to extinction,” he said.

He concluded, “We are running out of time.”

On April 20, President Joe Biden will host President Petro for a bilateral meeting at the White House to discuss topics such as climate change, and economic and security cooperation.

Petro won Colombia’s presidential election in June 2022 with the support of voters frustrated by rising poverty and violence. He has vowed to bring peace to his nation of 50 million after decades of conflict. Time magazine recently named him one of the “100 Most Influential People of 2023.”

Under Petro, Colombia earlier this year announced that it will not approve any new oil and gas exploration projects as it seeks to shift away from fossil fuels and toward a new sustainable economy.

Gustavo Petro speaks with FSI faculty
President Petro (left) in conversation with a small group of FSI faculty. Clockwise from the president: Michael McFaul, Beatriz Magaloni, Kathryn Stoner, Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, and Héctor Hoyos. | Rod Searcey

Student-driven event


Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), affiliated faculty at CDDRL, and director of Stanford’s Center for Latin American Studies, participated in a questions-and-answers session with the audience and Petro after the president’s address. Michael McFaul, director of FSI, and Kathyrn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of CDDRL, both introduced Petro before his remarks.

In an email interview, Díaz-Cayeros explained that Colombia has weathered a four-decades-long civil war. Now, Petro will manage various high-stakes issues in his country, including an ambitious overhaul of the health system, a restart of the peace process, and the role of the mining and oil industries, among others.

“This visit is important as Stanford considers its engagement with Latin America and our hemisphere,” said Díaz-Cayeros, adding that it can refocus attention to a region of the world that is fundamentally important for California, the U.S.,  Stanford, and even Silicon Valley.

Héctor Hoyos, Professor and Director of Iberian and Latin American Cultures, and Professor of Comparative Literature (by courtesy), added that “it was great to see Stanford students come together to engage with an influential figure for hemispheric politics." Hoyos went on to note that civility and openness to different points of view were hallmarks of the event, which also included Bay Area community members.

Tara Hein, ‘23, CDDRL honors student and co-founder & co-president of the Stanford Society for Latin American Politics, led the student-driven effort to host the Colombian president.

Born and raised in Costa Rica, Hein was inspired to host Petro due to her goals of strengthening democracy, realizing the promise of political equality in Latin America, and connecting Stanford's expertise to the world beyond campus. “This can make life better for millions,” she said.

Highlighting the need to bridge academia and policy, Hein explained, “At Stanford, we’re tremendously privileged to have leading scholars and abundant resources to tackle the world’s most pressing issues. But if these learnings stay here on campus, or within intellectual circles, the impact will remain limited. We must not forget that there are real people being affected by the very events that we research and study.”

By inviting Colombia’s president to Stanford, her student community hopes to spark a larger dialogue between academic spaces such as CDDRL and democratic world leaders like Petro, she said.

Gustavo Petro and fans
At the conclusion of the event, attendees took photos with the President. | Rod Searcey

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President Petro and Alberto Diaz-Cayeros
Colombian President Gustavo Petro (L) speaks at an event hosted by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law on April 18, 2023, as moderator Alberto Díaz-Cayeros (R) looks on.
Rod Searcey
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The event, which was largely student-driven, aimed to foster dialogue on how the Stanford community can engage with Latin America.

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A Conversation with Colombian President Gustavo Petro

Environmental and Social Justice:
A Look from Latin America


The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law is honored to host the President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro Urrego.

The world today is facing unprecedented economic, social, and environmental dynamics. As the global community continues to navigate these changes and challenges, political leaders seek to articulate fresh visions on how countries may steer a clear course. President Petro will provide a perspective from Latin America on the critical issues of environmental and social justice.

Following the president’s remarks, he will join Professor Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, Senior Fellow at FSI and director of the Stanford Center for Latin American Studies, for a discussion on the challenges of climate change, economic growth, and social inclusion that have historically bedeviled development in Latin America.

IMPORTANT: Large bags are not permitted into the building. All bags are subject to be searched. Seating is not guaranteed and is available on a first-come first-served basis. Please plan accordingly.

The event will also be available to livestream below.

This event is co-sponsored by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, the Center for Latin American Studies, Stanford in Government, and the Stanford Society for Latin American Politics.

 

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Stanford Graduate School of Business
655 Knight Way, Stanford, CA 94305

SOLD OUT. Please tune into the livestream if you do not have a ticket. Only those registered may attend in person.

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Following the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and Elijah McClain, the effectiveness of policing and police reform have reemerged as a prominent topic of debate both in the United States and in communities around the world. One popular method of police reform is community policing, defined generally as law enforcement systems where officers build and maintain active, reinforcing relationships with local stakeholders, including citizens and community leaders.

The principle underpinning this philosophy is simple; when law enforcement officers create a personal, responsive presence in a community, they are better able to do their job, benefit from citizens’ cooperation, and overall safety improves. But gauging the actual effectiveness of these practices has proven challenging to study in a controlled and rigorous way.

In a first-of-its-kind study led by Graeme Blair (Dept. of Political Science, University of California–Los Angeles), Jeremy Weinstein (Dept. of Political Science, Stanford and FSI Senior Fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law) and Fotini Christia (Dept. of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology), a group of intercollegiate researchers have published new research examining the effectiveness of community policing in the Global South.

To mark the publication of the new findings in the journal Science this week, Blair, Christia and Weinstein spoke to us about what their findings reveal about the usefulness of community policing practices in a global context, and what more needs to be done to implement police reform in diverse systems.



Let’s start by defining what community policing is. Can you give some context on where this style of intervention comes from and why it has become a popular model in so many places?

Weinstein: Community policing is perhaps the most celebrated policing reform in recent decades. The idea is pretty simple in theory: the police should involve regular citizens directly in their work by building channels of dialogue and improving police-citizen collaboration. In practice, community policing takes lots of different forms including frequent beat patrols, decentralized decision-making, community engagement programs, and problem-oriented policing.

After compelling evidence emerged about the efficacy of community policing in Chicago in the 1990s, the approach took off around the United States. By 2015, nearly all U.S. cities identified community policing as a core element of their mission. Increasingly, advocates have promoted the export of community policing to countries in the Global South where issues of insecurity and mistrust in the police are significant. We wanted to figure out whether these practices work in a wholly different context.

Advocates have promoted the export of community policing to countries in the Global South where issues of insecurity and mistrust in the police are significant. We wanted to figure out whether these practices work in a wholly different context.
Jeremy Weinstein
Professor of Political Science and FSI Senior Fellow at CDDRL

There’s a great deal of support for community policing, but not a lot of concrete data on whether it works. What makes this a challenging issue to study?

Christia: Building trust between police and the citizens they are tasked to protect is at the core of community policing. As such, an important challenge lies with identifying the right measures to capture this often-complex police-citizen interaction. This was even more of a pronounced challenge in our study as we conducted six coordinated experiments across a diverse set of sites in the Global South in Brazil, Colombia, Liberia, Pakistan, the Philippines and Uganda.

To make progress in understanding the impacts of community policing, we needed to develop a set of common strategies for the police to implement that made sense in each national context, which we call locally appropriate community policing interventions. We also needed to agree upon a shared research design across countries and to introduce common outcome measures to ensure that we were looking at the impacts of these programs in similar ways. This approach to launching coordinated, multi-site, randomized controlled trials across contexts has been pioneered by the organization that sponsored this work, Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP).

Researchers from Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) meet with law enforcement officers in the Philippines.
Researchers from Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) meet with law enforcement officers in the Philippines. | Researchers from Evidence in Governance and Politics

Your team partnered with six communities across the Global South in Brazil, Colombia, Liberia, Pakistan, the Philippines and Uganda. Based on your research, what evidence did you find for or against the use of community policing practices?

Blair: We find that community policing doesn’t live up to its promise when implemented in the Global South. Community policing doesn’t build trust between citizens and police, it doesn’t lead to citizens to share the kinds of tips and information with police that might improve police efficiency, and, perhaps not surprisingly then, it does not lead to lower crime. This disappointing result was apparent across all six contexts and for all of the primary outcomes we measured.

Community policing doesn’t build trust between citizens and police, it doesn’t lead to citizens to share the kinds of tips and information with police that might improve police efficiency, and, perhaps not surprisingly then, it does not lead to lower crime.
Graeme Blair
Assistant Professor of Political Science, UCLA

Is there an alternative to community policing, or ways to reform these systems, that would make them more efficacious at creating the desired outcomes?

Weinstein: We carefully examined each of the six contexts, including through interviews with the police agencies and the research teams, to make sense of this null result. We identified three primary constraints that may have impeded the implementation of community policing: (a) a lack of prioritization of these new practices by police leadership (b) the rotation to new posts of police officers who had championed the effort and were trained to implement it and (c) limited resources to follow up on the concerns raised by citizens.

The bottom line is that community policing isn’t positioned to deliver increased trust and collaboration in environments with limited incentives and resources to enable police to change their behavior. Our conclusion is that community policing should be seen as an incremental reform that can make a difference in well-resourced police departments with strong incentives to be responsive to citizen concerns. But when those conditions are absent, an incremental approach can’t deliver. More systemic reforms are required.

Community members in Uganda fill out survey questions about community policing as part of a research project by Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP).
Community members in Uganda fill out survey questions about community policing as part of a research project by Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP). | Evidence in Governance and Politics

How does the data from your work fit into broader issues of equity, just representation, and racism that communities across the world continue to grapple with?

Blair: In many ways community policing appears to be the ideal policy for this moment, where so many are demanding that police abuse be reduced while also reducing crime victimization. Community policing is meant to do both, constructing a virtuous cycle between citizen-police cooperation, trust, and crime reduction. Our null results sound a note of caution: it may not be so simple. We observed big barriers to implementing this shift in policing, and barriers that likely affect other incremental policies. To address equity in the way governments enforce the law, we may need more systematic changes to how we organize the police and hold them accountable.   

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A law enforcement officer meets with community members in Brazil.
A law enforcement officer meets with community members in Brazil.
Evidence in Governance and Politics
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A first-of-its-kind study from Jeremy M. Weinstein, Graeme Blair and Fotini Christia shows that the celebrated practice of community policing may have few, if any, positive impacts on communities in the Global South.

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The global cities of Latin America - Rio de Janeiro, Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana, Mexico City and Medellin - have become engines of economic growth. These cities attract remarkable talent across all levels and build extensive networks that allow for innovation and the circulation of ideas. But crime, violence and the dissolution of the social fabric threaten the main attraction of these cities and significantly undermine development prospects. The challenge of providing policing that protects citizens, especially those living in the poorest neighborhoods where gangs and other criminal organizations tend to concentrate, is daunting. The conference on violence and policing in Latin America and US cities brought together academics, policy makers, NGOs, and citizens to reflect on how cities in Latin America are meeting the challenges of rising
criminal violence. Particular focus was given to the “policing” processes in cities that have experienced and successfully reduced civil war-like levels of violence. The goal was to reflect on the dynamics and varieties of security strategies, police reform and efforts to rebuild the social fabric of major cities. The conference was hosted by the Program on Poverty and Governance (PovGov) at Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). Other centers and institutions at Stanford University that co-sponsored the conference include the Center for Latin American Studies (CLAS), the Bill Lane Center for the American West, the Mexico Initiative’ at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC).
 
For a complete conference overview, please click here
 
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Veriene Melo
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Scholars, law enforcement officials, business leaders and community activists will meet next week at Stanford to examine violence and policing in Latin American and the United States.

A two-day conference beginning April 28 will highlight the work of entrepreneurs and grassroots organizations trying to reduce violence and rebuild civil society. The gathering is hosted by the Program on Poverty and Governance (PovGov) at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. It is hosted in partnership with the Bill Lane Center for the American West, the Center for Latin American Studies, the ‘Mexico Initiative’ at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation.

"Violence linked to drug trafficking, gang wars and criminality is one of the leading barriers to development that effects the lives of millions in Latin America,” said Beatriz Magaloni, an associate professor of political science who directs PovGov, a program that studies the links between public action, goverance and poverty.

“The conference brings together people who have dealt with these problems in cities in Latin America and in the U.S. Seldom is the case that we bring to campus practitioners with first-hand experience dealing with some of the most pressing problems the hemisphere is confronting,” said Magaloni, who is also a senior fellow at FSI. 

The first day of the conference will feature a panel with Jose Galicot, the driving force of Tijuana Innovadora, a movement that helped Tijuana recover from devastating criminal activity and violence the last four years. Galicot will be joined by Jailson Silva, from Observatório of Favelas, one of the most reputable grass-roots organizations in the slums of Rio that undertakes research, consultancy and public actions focused on the city's favelas.

Many violence-plagued cities in the U.S. have implemented innovative initiatives to address the challenge that have included community policing tools and youth violence interventions. Similar initiatives are also taking place in Latin America with varying degrees of success. One of the goals of the conference is to get practitioners to share their experiences and best practices to reduce violence in major cities.

One of three featured keynote speakers, Sergio Fajardo, the current governor of Antioquia, Colombia, will speak on April 29 and help build the foundation for such dialogue. From 2003 to 2007, Fajardo implemented an effective strategy to reduce the level of violence in Medellin while he was mayor of the Colombian city.

By providing alternatives to illicit work, allocating resources to the most disadvantage areas, reclaiming public spaces and fostering dialogue among different sectors of society to create a sense of collective ownership, Fajardo transformed Medellin.

The two other keynotes include Mariano Beltrame, minister of security of Rio de Janeiro who is credited for the enactment and implementation of the Pacification Police Unites to reduce violence in the favelas of the city and Hector Robles, major of the municipality of Zapopan who has implemented various innovative policies to give better opportunities to the youth in Mexico, including an initiative called Jovenes con Porvenir (Youth with a Bright Future). 

The conference will also bring together police chiefs from Brazil and the U.S. to share their experiences and insights on grassroots implementation of initiatives designed to reduce violence. General Commander of Operations, Coronel Paulo Henrique, from the military police of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and Chief Eric Jones from Stockton, CA will be speaking on a panel titled, “’Pacification’ Strategies and Policing” on day two of the conference. Tony Farrar, chief of police for the city of Rialto, CA will be joined by Robert Chapman, deputy director of Community Policing Advancement and others to present on police accountability and gang violence in the U.S shortly thereafter.  

The conference will build upon a PovGov research project that is focused on the Brazilian military police in Rio de Janeiro. Targeting an important initiative in the city's favelas, the "Pacifying Police Units", the ongoing project investigates the use of lethal force by the police and reforms aimed at controlling violence.

A number of conference sessions will be led by CDDRL faculty members and affiliates, including: FSI Director Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar; Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow; FSI senior fellow and CDDRL affiliated faculty member Alberto Díaz-Cayeros; and former President of Peru and CDDRL Visiting Lecturer Alejandro Toledo. A conference report will be made available following the event.

Sessions will be held at Stanford University's Bechtel Conference room in Encina Hall on Monday, April 28 and the Alumni Center on Tuesday, April 29.  All sessions are free and open to the public. Please RSVP here to attend. A complete agenda can be found here.

For conference updates via Twitter please visit #PovGov

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Abstract:

Why have militarized interventions to curtail violence by drug cartels had wildly divergent results? In the past six years, state crackdowns drove a nine-fold increase in cartel-state violence in Mexico, versus a two-thirds decrease in Brazil. Prevailing analyses of drug wars as a criminal subtype of insurgency provide little traction, because they elide differences in rebels’ and cartels’ aims. Cartels, I argue, fight states not to conquer territory or political control, but to coerce state actors and influence policy outcomes. The empirically predominant channel is violent corruption— threatening enforcers while negotiating bribes. A formal model reveals that greater state repression raises bribe prices, leading cartels to fight back whenever (a) corruption is sufficiently rampant, and (b) repression is insufficiently conditional on cartels’ use of violence. Variation in conditionality helps explain observed outcomes: switching to conditional repression pushed Brazilian cartels into nonviolent strategies, while Mexico’s war “without distinctions” inadvertently made fighting advantageous.

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Scholars of state development have paid insufficient attention to the question of regionalism; too often modeling state-building as the extension of the authority of a 'center' over peripheral territories, and too often linking regionalism to cultural or ethnic heterogeneity. A purely spatial account of the challenges to central control shows that even in the absence of cultural fractionalization, the presence of economically powerful and politically salient regions undermines political development. Three analytically distinct mechanisms - divergent public good preferences, economic self-sufficiency, and institutional design - underlie this relationship. I explore these issues through a region-wide analysis of Latin America, and case studies of the United States, Ecuador, Colombia, and early modern Poland.

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Hillel David Soifer earned his PhD in the Government Department at Harvard, and is currently Assistant Professor of Political Science at Temple University. His research has been centered in Latin America, with a focus on political development and state capacity, and has been published in journals including Latin American Research Review and Comparative Political Studies. He is currently completing a book on the long-term divergence in state capacity in Latin America which contrasts the cases of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.

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Hillel Soifer Assistant Professor of Political Science Speaker Temple University
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This paper estimates the effect that successful cocaine interdiction policies in Colombia have had on violence in Mexico. We propose a simple model of the war on drugs that captures the essence of our identification strategy: aggregate supply shocks affect the size of illegal drug markets, which then increases or decreases violence. We estimate the effect of the interaction of cocaine seizures in Colombia with simple geographic features of Mexican municipalities. Our results indicate that aggregate supply shocks originated in drug seizures in Colombia affect homicides in Mexico. The effects are especially large for violence generated by clashes between drug cartels. Our estimates also show that government crackdowns on drug cartels might not be the only explanation behind the rise of illegal drug trafficking and violence observed in the last six years in Mexico: successful interdiction policies implemented in Colombia since 2006 have also played a major role in the worsening of the Mexican situationduring Calderon's sexennium.

 

Speaker Bio:

Daniel Mejia is Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and Director of the Research Center on Drugs and Security (CESED) at Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia, where he has taught since 2006. He received a BA and MA in Economics from Universidad de los Andes and a MA and PhD in economics from Brown University. Prior to joining Universidad de los Andes he worked as a researcher at the Central Bank of Colombia and Fedesarrollo. Daniel he has been actively involved in a research agenda whose main objective is to provide an independent, economic evaluation of anti-drug policies implemented under Plan Colombia. His academic work has been published at the Journal of Development Economics, the European Journal of Political Economy, Economics of Governance and Economia: Journal of the Latin America Economic Association. In 2008 he was awarded Fedesarrollos´s German Botero de los Ríos prize for economic research. Also, in 2008, 2010 and 2012 he was awarded with research grants from the Open Society Institute for the study of anti-drug policies in Colombia. Daniel, together with Alejandro Gaviria, recently published the book “Políticas antidroga en Colombia: éxitos, fracasos y extravíos” (Anti-drug policies in Colombia: successes, failures and lost opportunities) at Universidad de los Andes, in Bogota. Between 2011 and 2012, Daniel was a member of the Advisory Commission on Criminal Policy and more recently he is the Chair of the Colombian Government´s Advisory Commission on Drugs Policy.

 

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Daniel Mejia Londoño Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and Director of the Research Center on Drugs and Security (CESED) Speaker Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia
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Abstract:
Why have militarized interventions to curtail violence by drug cartels had wildly divergent results? In the past six years, state crackdowns drove a nine-fold increase in cartel-state violence in Mexico, versus a two-thirds decrease in Brazil. Prevailing analyses of drug wars as a criminal subtype of insurgency provide little traction, because they elide differences in rebels’ and cartels’ aims. Cartels, I argue, fight states not to conquer territory or political control, but to coerce state actors and influence policy outcomes. The empirically predominant channel is violent corruption—threatening enforcers while negotiating bribes. A formal model reveals that greater state repression raises bribe prices, leading cartels to fight back whenever (a) corruption is sufficiently rampant, and (b) repression is insufficiently conditional on cartels’ use of violence. Variation in conditionality helps explain observed outcomes: switching to conditional repression pushed Brazilian cartels into nonviolent strategies, while Mexico’s war “without distinctions” inadvertently made fighting advantageous.

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