Stanford University

Election Forensics Research: a Case of Russia

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Abstract:

Election forensics adds distinctive value to current efforts to promote the integrity of elections around the world by developing special forensic tools and techniques designed to detect the presence of election fraud and to estimate its magnitude based on the reported results of elections. By utilizing electoral data, election forensics provides statistical evidence, which could refute or support various sorts of accusations related to the presence of election fraud. What methods and techniques are currently used by election forensics? Can election forensics measures be validated by the auxiliary data, such as election observation? What election forensics tells us about election fraud at the Russian elections? To address these questions I’ll discuss election forensics methodology, and present key findings from the analysis of the Russian presidential and parliamentary elections 2000-2016.

 

Speaker Bio:

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Kirill Kalinin is a W. Glenn Campbell and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National Fellow at the Hoover Institution. His research focuses on election studies, election forensics, survey methodology, and Russian politics. Kirill is one of the creators of the Election Forensics Toolkit website with funding from USAID, a prototype that implements election forensics methods that have been proposed as useful accuracy diagnostics for detecting election fraud. Currently Kirill is also engaged in data management and analysis of the Survey of Russian Elites: 1993–2016. Kirill received a PhD in Political Science from the University of Michigan (2017).

Kirill Kalinin W. Glenn Campbell and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Seminars

Polarized planet & What is to be done?

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"The problems with our democracy—ever-deepening polarization, incivility, gridlock, dysfunction, conflicts of interest, and disregard for democratic norms—are not just problems of political culture and behavior. Politicians are driven by incentives, especially the desire to get re-elected. Institutions heavily shape these incentives, and our institutions are in need of reform. Unless we reform our democracy, we will be increasingly hard-pressed to improve the health of democracy globally." Listen to Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, explains in this podcast what are the options from here, by Hoover Institution. 

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Why Populist Nationalism Now?

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In this three-parts article on populism, CDDRL Mosbacher Director Francis Fukuyama writes about different forms of populist nationalism. Read "What Is Populism?" here, "Why Populist Nationalism Now?" here and "The Future of Populism at Home and Abroad" here.  

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Global Populisms: A Threat to Democracy?

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THIS EVENT IS AT THE CAPACITY AND CLOSED. 

 

Conference Program

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3

8:45-10:30  Panel 1: Populism as a Threat — Chaired by Anna Grzymala-Busse

  • Sheri Berman, Professor of Political Science, Barnard College | Columbia University, "Populism Is a Symptom Rather Than a Cause: The Decline of the Center-life and Rise of Threats to Liberal Democracy"
  • John Carey, Professor of Government, Dartmouth College, "The People Versus the Elites: What Do They Value and How Much Do Their Judgments of Democracy Differ?”
  • Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute and Hoover Institution, Stanford University, "When Does Populism Become a Threat to Democracy?"
  • Niall Ferguson, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, "The Cultural Dimensions of Populism”
  • Rick Perlstein, Journalist and bestselling author, "Why Populism Should Not Be an Epithet."

— 10:30-10:45: Coffee break —

10:45-12:30  Panel 2: American Populism — Chaired by Didi Kuo

  • Julia Azari, Associate Professor of Political Science, Marquette University, "Populism, Polarization and American Political Parties” 
  • David Kennedy, Donald J. McLachlan Professor of History, Emeritus, Stanford University, “The Paradoxes of American Populism”
  • Kirk Hawkins, Associate Professor of Political Science, Brigham Young University, "Populism in Comparative Perspective: America and the 2016 Presidential Election”
  • Rob Mickey, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan — Ann Arbor, “Anti-anti Populism, or: The Threat of Populism to U.S. Democracy Is Exaggerated”
  • Rick Valelly, Claude C. Smith '14 Professor of Political Science, Swarthmore College, “The Populist Scare of the 1890s -- And the Aftermath that Changed American Populism"

— 12:30-1:30: Lunch —

1:30-3:15  Panel 3: Comparative Perspectives  — Chaired by Matthias Matthijs

  • Anna Grzymala-Busse, Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies and Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute, “Populist or Authoritarian: The Erosion of Democracy in Poland and Hungary”
  • Steve Levitsky, Professor of Government, Harvard University, “Populism and Competitive Authoritarianism in Latin America”
  • Kenneth Roberts, Richard J. Schwartz Professor of Government, Cornell University, "Bipolar Disorders: Partisan Alignments and Populist Out-flanking in the Post-liberal Order”
  • Milada Vachudova: Associate Professor of Political Science, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, "From Competition to Polarization: How Populists Change Party Systems to Concentrate Power”
  • Julie Lynch, University of Pennsylvania, “Populism, Partisan Convergence, and Redistribution in Western Europe”

— 3:15-3:30: Coffee break —

3:30-5:00  Panel 4: International Linkages  — Chaired by Michael McFaul

  • Valerie Bunce, Aaron Binenkorb Professor of International Studies and Professor of Government, Cornell University, "The Putin Regime, Populism Promotion, and the 2016 US Presidential Election"
  • Francis Fukuyama, Olivier-Nomellini Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University "Immigration and Citizenship as Factors in the Rise of Populism"
  • Kathleen McNamara, Professor of Government and Foreign Service, Georgetown University, "When the Banal Becomes Political: the EU in the Age of Populism”
  • Kathryn Stoner, Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute and Hoover Institution, Stanford University, "Is Putin a Populist and Why Does It Matter?”
  • Lucan Way, Professor, Munk School of Global Affairs, University of Toronto, "Is Russia a Threat to Western Democracy?"

 

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 4

 9:00-11:00  Panel 5: Inequality, Investment and Economic Strain — Chaired by Francis Fukuyama

  • Kathy Cramer, Professor of Political Science, University of Wisconsin — Madison, "The Views of Populists: What Trump Voters’ Perspectives and Perceptions of Trump Voters Tell Us about the Threat of Populism to U.S. Democracy"
  • Didi Kuo, Research Scholar, Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University, “Parties and Policy Convergence”
  • Margaret Levi, Professor of Political Science, Stanford University, "Populism and the Decline of Labor Unions”
  • Pia Malaney, Senior Economist, Institute for New Economic Thinking"Economic Nationalism as a Driving Force of Populism in the U.S.”
  • Kenneth Scheve, Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University "The Economic Origins of Authoritarian Values: Evidence from Local Trade Shocks in the United Kingdom”

— 11-1 pm Lunch and concluding discussion —

 

CISAC Central, 2nd Floor, Encina Hall at Stanford University, 616 Serra Street, Stanford, CA 94305

Conferences

Draper Hills Summer Fellowship application is open

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Draper Hills Summer Fellowship Program at CDDRL is now accepting applications. Deadline is 5:00 pm PST on Wednesday, November 15, 2017.

Launched in 2005, the Draper Hills Summer Fellowship on Democracy and Development Program (DHSFDD) is a three-week academic training program that is hosted annually at Stanford University's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. The program brings together a group of 25 to 30 mid-career practitioners in law, politics, government, private enterprise, civil society, and international development from transitioning countries. This training program provides a unique forum for emerging leaders to connect, exchange experiences, and receive academic training to enrich their knowledge and advance their work.

For three weeks during the summer, fellows participate in academic seminars that expose them to the theory and practice of democracy, development, and the rule of law. Delivered by leading Stanford faculty from the Stanford Law School, the Graduate School of Business, and the departments of economics and political science, these seminars allow emerging leaders to explore new institutional models and frameworks to enhance their ability to promote democratic change in their home countries.

Guest speakers from private foundations, think tanks, government, and the justice system provide a practitioners viewpoint on such pressing issues in the field. Summer Fellows also visit Silicon Valley technology firms such as Benetech, Google and Twitter to explore how technology tools and social media platforms are being used to catalyze democratic practices on a global scale. 

The  program is funded  by the generous support from Bill and Phyllis Draper and Ingrid von Mangoldt Hills.

Learn more here.

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Decline in democracy spreads across the globe as authoritarian leaders rise

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Across the world, many democracies are sliding further and further toward authoritarianism. NPR's Ari Shapiro talks with Larry Diamond of Stanford University about this "global democratic recession." Listen here.

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Larry Diamond, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at FSI, speaks in the Bechtel Conference Center at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.
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I still believe in progress

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"The year 2017 marks the 25th anniversary of the publication of one of Francis Fukuyama’s most famous works, The End of History and the Last Man, which argued that the worldwide spread of liberal democracy may signal the end point of humanity’s sociocultural evolution and become the final form of human government. Can Fukuyama’s theory still tell us something important about the world?" Read here CDDRL Mosbacher Director Francis Fukuyama in conversation with Jaroslaw Kuisz and Łukasz Pawlowski. 

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Hub for global digital policy launches at Stanford

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The Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University announced today that it has launched the Global Digital Policy Incubator (GDPi). GDPi’s mission is to help develop governance norms for the global digital ecosystem that reinforce democratic values, universal human rights and the rule of law. It will serve as a multi-stakeholder collaboration hub at Stanford for technologists, governments, civil society and the private sector actors. GDPi will identify and incubate global policy and governance innovations that enhance freedom, security and trust in the digital realm. 

 

GDPi will be led by Eileen Donahoe who is widely recognized as a leading advocate for human rights in the digital realm, and as an experienced international lawyer and diplomat working to develop global norms for Internet governance and digital policy.  

Donahoe was appointed by President Obama to serve as the first United States Ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva. After leaving government, Donahoe served as director of global affairs at Human Rights Watch, where she represented the organization worldwide on human rights foreign policy, with special emphasis on digital rights, cybersecurity and Internet governance. 

“Silicon Valley is a natural locus for cross-sector international collaboration on global digital norms,” said Donahoe. “Our mission will be to facilitate development of operational policies and processes to address societal challenges that arise from technological innovation. I am so excited to have the opportunity to build this global innovation hub for digital policy at CDDRL, the perfect home for this dynamic and interdisciplinary project.”  

GDPi will explore the complex roles of government and private sector technology firms in the digital environment. While rapid adoption of digital technology has brought many benefits and challenges to society, most legal and governance institutions have not kept pace or adjusted to meet the corresponding changes.  

GDPi will address governance challenges in four interrelated areas: digital rights; digital security; artificial Intelligence-based governance and trans-national Internet governance. The initiative seeks to engage stakeholders in new articulations of existing international human rights and humanitarian law.  [[{"fid":"226716","view_mode":"crop_870xauto","fields":{"format":"crop_870xauto","field_file_image_description[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_credit[und][0][value]":"","field_caption[und][0][value]":"Eileen with President Obama during her tenure as the first US Ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva. ","thumbnails":"crop_870xauto","alt":"","title":""},"type":"media","field_deltas":{"3":{"format":"crop_870xauto","field_file_image_description[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_credit[und][0][value]":"","field_caption[und][0][value]":"Eileen with President Obama during her tenure as the first US Ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva. ","thumbnails":"crop_870xauto","alt":"","title":""}},"link_text":null,"attributes":{"style":"margin: 3px 10px; float: right; height: 393px; width: 300px;","class":"media-element file-crop-870xauto","data-delta":"3"}}]]

Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and an affiliated faculty member at CDDRL, will serve as the principal investigator on the GDPi project.  

“We are really delighted that Eileen Donahoe has agreed to join CDDRL as adjunct professor and executive director of the new GDPi,” said Diamond. “Every month, it seems, social media and other digital tools are becoming more and more powerful and pervasive in their effects on our politics, government and daily lives. As digital technology races forward, it not only generates new platforms and possibilities for human empowerment, but it also poses growing challenges for human rights and individual, national and international security.”   

Diamond launched the Program on Liberation Technology (LibTech) at CDDRL in 2009 to examine how technology has empowered democratic progress. GDPi is a successor to the LibTech program, enabling the Stanford team to take a more comprehensive and policy-oriented approach to digital policy challenges - involving not only research but also innovation to incubate new ideas and approaches.  

Quarterly workshops and an annual global conference will be the foundation for GDPi’s work in the coming year.  

The GDPi initiative joins five other core research programs at CDDRL, which probe some of the most urgent issues facing the field of democracy and development. Working in partnership with other institutes on campus, the program will benefit from the guidance and active engagement of cross-disciplinary faculty from Stanford Law School, the Center for Internet and Society, the Stanford Cyber Initiative and the Center for Social Innovation at the Graduate School of Business. 

Michael McFaul, director of Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies expressed confidence that GDPi will help solidify Stanford’s role as a global thought-leader on governance challenges that flow from digital technology. 

“The Global Digital Policy Incubator will become an important hub at Stanford, as we seek to help government and private sector policymakers address governance challenges of the 21st century digital world.”  

More information about the Global Digital Policy Incubator can be found at http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/global-digital-policy-incubator

 

 

CAPTIONS:

The picture in the left upper corner: Eileen Donahoe addressing the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva, where she served as the first US Ambassador 2010-2013.

The picture on the right: Eileen Donahoe with President Obama during her tenure at the UNHRC. 

 

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