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In 2008, when Michael McFaul was asked to leave his perch at Stanford and join an unlikely presidential campaign, he had no idea that he would find himself at the beating heart of one of today’s most contentious and consequential international relationships. As President Barack Obama’s adviser on Russian affairs, McFaul helped craft the United States’ policy known as “reset” that fostered new and unprecedented collaboration between the two countries. And then, as U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014, he had a front-row seat when this fleeting, hopeful moment crumbled with Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency. This riveting inside account combines history and memoir to tell the full story of U.S.-Russia relations from the fall of the Soviet Union to the new rise of the hostile, paranoid Russian president. From the first days of McFaul’s ambassadorship, the Kremlin actively sought to discredit and undermine him, hassling him with tactics that included dispatching protesters to his front gates, slandering him on state media, and tightly surveilling him, his staff, and his family.

From Cold War to Hot Peace is an essential account of the most consequential global confrontation of our time.

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Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
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Michael A. McFaul
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This event is co-sponsored by The Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies

 

The once much-hailed success story of Turkey’s democracy as a “regional model” has been decidedly replaced by studies of its breakdown. With its ever-increasing centralization of power under a one-man regime, some might now see Turkey as a “global model” for a new authoritarianism.


Why has the response of North Atlantic democracies to the erosion of Turkey’s democracy been muted? Is Turkey’s policy of “hostage diplomacy” and offers of trade deals paying off? Can democracy still make a comeback in Turkey? What lessons can the global democratic public draw from Turkey’s struggle?


In this panel, academics from Turkey will explore Turkey’s new political reality, prospects for change, and the international context.

 

 


 

Halil Yenigun Stanford University
Yektan Turkyilmaz Fresno State University
Eda Erdener Academics for Peace, former Bingol University Professor
Sinan Birdal University of Southern California
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"Since 1978, China’s authoritarian political system has been different from virtually all other dictatorships in part because the ruling Communist Party has been subject to rules regarding succession. Term limits for senior leadership have kicked in at regular 10-year intervals three times so far, and the party’s system of cultivating and training new leaders to replace the outgoing ones had allowed it to avoid the stagnation of countries like Egypt, Zimbabwe, Libya or Angola, where presidents ruled for decades. But all of this is out the window now because of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent announcement that term limits on the presidency will be abolished. This means that he will likely be China’s ruler for the rest of his life, turning at one stroke an institutionalized autocracy into a personal one. This builds upon the massive cult of personality he has been cultivating, with “Xi Jinping Thought” now canonized in the Constitution alongside Chairman Mao," writes CDDRL Mosbacher Director Francis Fukuyama in Washington Post. Read the article here

 
 
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"There is growing consensus that populism constitutes a grave threat to liberal democracy, and to the liberal international order on which peace and prosperity have rested for the past two generations," writes Francis Fukuyama in the World Economic Forum. The fate of the global liberal order could be jeopardized due to rising populist powers and movements. Read the full article here

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The founder of The Bell Liza Osetinskaya and Draper Hills alumna (Russia, '16) talks to CDDRL Mosbacher Director Francis Fukuyama, about Trump and Putin, the U.S.—Russia relations and the future of the world with political populism on the rise. Listen here and read the transcript here

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Abstract:

Election forensics adds distinctive value to current efforts to promote the integrity of elections around the world by developing special forensic tools and techniques designed to detect the presence of election fraud and to estimate its magnitude based on the reported results of elections. By utilizing electoral data, election forensics provides statistical evidence, which could refute or support various sorts of accusations related to the presence of election fraud. What methods and techniques are currently used by election forensics? Can election forensics measures be validated by the auxiliary data, such as election observation? What election forensics tells us about election fraud at the Russian elections? To address these questions I’ll discuss election forensics methodology, and present key findings from the analysis of the Russian presidential and parliamentary elections 2000-2016.

 

Speaker Bio:

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Kirill Kalinin is a W. Glenn Campbell and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National Fellow at the Hoover Institution. His research focuses on election studies, election forensics, survey methodology, and Russian politics. Kirill is one of the creators of the Election Forensics Toolkit website with funding from USAID, a prototype that implements election forensics methods that have been proposed as useful accuracy diagnostics for detecting election fraud. Currently Kirill is also engaged in data management and analysis of the Survey of Russian Elites: 1993–2016. Kirill received a PhD in Political Science from the University of Michigan (2017).

Kirill Kalinin W. Glenn Campbell and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National Fellow at the Hoover Institution
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"The problems with our democracy—ever-deepening polarization, incivility, gridlock, dysfunction, conflicts of interest, and disregard for democratic norms—are not just problems of political culture and behavior. Politicians are driven by incentives, especially the desire to get re-elected. Institutions heavily shape these incentives, and our institutions are in need of reform. Unless we reform our democracy, we will be increasingly hard-pressed to improve the health of democracy globally." Listen to Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, explains in this podcast what are the options from here, by Hoover Institution. 

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