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Why do elites in authoritarian regimes choose to pursue democratic transitions? In a CDDRL research seminar series talk, James Fearon, Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), offers a theory to explain the methods and motivations behind elite-led democratization. Fearon probes how authoritarian elites safeguard their power through autocratic constitutions, focusing on Myanmar, one of the longest-lived military regimes in the post-WWII era.

The Tatmadaw — Myanmar’s armed forces — held exclusive power after General Ne Win took control in a 1962 coup d’état until the early 2010s when they pursued a power-sharing arrangement with a civilian opposition. In 2008, the military junta that ruled from 1988 to 2011 ratified a new constitution they had drafted in a dubious referendum. While the 2008 Constitution appeared to take steps toward democracy, it featured serious limitations. It handed the military full control over several key ministries, secured “rent” streams for the officers, and reserved a quarter of parliamentary seats for military-appointed representatives. It further required that any changes to the constitution be passed by 75% of the legislature, thus giving them an effective veto.

In the November 2015 General Election, the opposition scored an overwhelming victory. The National League for Democracy Party (NLD) won close to three-fourths of the seats, giving them a large parliamentary majority and a strong ability to pass laws even if they were formally constrained on changing the constitution. The trajectory of these events raises the question, why did the military choose to pursue a democratic transition? Relatedly, why did military leaders believe that the 2008 Constitution would sufficiently protect them? Fearon observes that one of the NLD’s first actions was to create a new head-of-state position outside the constitution for Aung San Suu Kyi, the NLD’s leader.

Fearon argues that the military was protected not by the formal constitution, which is just a piece of paper, but rather by maintaining direct control of important streams of income and policy influence in the form of staffing of the bureaucracy and control of natural resource and drug incomes in militarily contested parts of the country. Control of these “rent streams” meant that the new NLD government could not shift them away from the military simply passing laws in parliament — even though the NLD did have considerable control and influence on many other dimensions of policy. In effect, this was a power (and rent) sharing division of the state.

Authoritarian rulers face international and domestic pressures, such as economic and political sanctions and costly revolutionary threats. Continued authoritarian rule would preserve elites’ control of the country’s existing resources. Movement toward democratization, on the other hand, generates both opportunities and costs. It comes with the promise of lifting international sanctions and increasing the flow of foreign aid, thus increasing the total economic “pie” available. However, the military could only take full advantage of that economic opening if they maintained a significant degree of economic and political control that the newly elected government could not revise without provoking a costly conflict (such as a coup attempt to reverse democratization). More general, Fearon argues that autocratic elites will be more inclined to try democratization when they can share rent streams and their military ability to retake power if this is challenged does not decline too rapidly after the transition.

Elite-led democratic transitions hold unique implications. On the one hand, top-down transitions are more efficient than bottom-up democratic revolutions because they reduce the costs and risks of violence. On the other hand, transitions led by undemocratic leaders are likely to result in only partial democratization because they tend to perpetuate preexisting power dynamics by reinforcing the influence of ruling elites and maintaining their access to rents.

Fearon proposes that as newly democratized societies begin to institutionalize, the relative power of the old elites may gradually diminish, leading to “endogenous consolidation.” Yet, if the military sees its power fading faster than expected, it may — as in the aftermath of Myanmar’s 2020 elections — intervene militarily to restore the status quo ante.

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James Fearon probes how authoritarian elites safeguard their power through autocratic constitutions, focusing on Myanmar, one of the longest-lived military regimes in the post-WWII era.

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CDDRL seminar with James Fearon - A Theory of Elite-initiated Democratization, Illustrated With the Case of Myanmar

Around half of democratic transitions are "top-down" in the sense that the autocrats write the constitution that governs post-transition democracy (Albertus and Menaldo 2015). We analyze a model of elite-driven democratization, illustrating its logic and implications in the case of Myanmar.  In the model, continued dictatorship is costly and inefficient due to the risk of a violent rebellion and, possibly, the increase in aid, trade, and geopolitical support that would follow democratization. But the autocrats fear that fair elections would lead quickly to their marginalization. We argue, contrary to a common suggestion, that paper constitutions that provide veto points for the old elite are not by themselves sufficient protection. Top-down "democratic transitions" are really cases of power-sharing, in which the old elite retains de facto control of rent streams that the opposition cannot unilaterally seize simply by changing laws. As the military's coup threat declines over time, democracy may eventually "consolidate."  If the coup threat declines dramatically and is anticipated to do so, a reversion back to autocracy is possible. We also show how the prospect of increased international aid, trade, and investment makes top-down transitions more likely, though only when post-transition power-sharing is feasible.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

James D. Fearon is Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences, and Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, and a Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies. His research has focused on civil and interstate war. He has also published on international relations theory, democratization, foreign aid and institution building, and post-conflict reconstruction. Fearon is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences (2012) and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (2002), and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. From 2007 to 2010, he was Chair of the Department of Political Science at Stanford. He served as a Senior Adviser in the U.S. Department of Defense in 2021 and 2022, where he worked primarily with the production and implementation team for the 2022 National Defense Strategy.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to Encina E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Hesham Sallam
Hesham Sallam

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

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Stanford University
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Stanford, CA 94305-6165

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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Theodore and Frances Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences
Professor of Political Science
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James Fearon is the Theodore and Frances Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences and a professor of political science. He is a Senior Fellow at FSI, affiliated with CISAC and CDDRL. His research interests include civil and interstate war, ethnic conflict, the international spread of democracy and the evaluation of foreign aid projects promoting improved governance. Fearon was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2012 and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2002. Some of his current research projects include work on the costs of collective and interpersonal violence, democratization and conflict in Myanmar, nuclear weapons and U.S. foreign policy, and the long-run persistence of armed conflict.

Affiliated faculty at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
Affiliated faculty at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
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Armed conflict continues its brutal march in Syria, Yemen, Southeast Asia and South Sudan — to name a few of the international hotspots that contributed to an 11% increase in political violence around the world in 2018.

Nearly 10 million Yemenis are facing famine this year; Syria was the deadliest place on earth for civilians last year, with more than 7,100 fatalities.

Many of those killed — and even more who face starvation — are children. And that’s when Stanford professor of pediatrics Paul Wise finds it hard to stand on the sidelines. Wise, who has traveled to Guatemala annually for the last 40 years to treat children in rural communities, also travels to the frontlines of global calamities.

As part of a small team of physicians, Wise went to Mosul, the northern city in Iraq once controlled by ISIS, in 2017 to evaluate the World Health Organization-led system to treat civilians injured in the brutal battle for the city. 

Working with colleagues at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Wise has collaborated with the U.S. military, non-governmental organizations and the United Nations on the interaction of humanitarian and security challenges.

So, it should come as no surprise that the American Academy of Arts & Sciences — of which he is a member — recently appointed him and two other global health experts to lead a new initiative to develop new strategies to protect civilians, health care and cultural heritage in areas of extreme violence. 

The initiative, Rethinking the Humanitarian Health Response to Violence Conflict, will be a collaboration among political scientists, international human rights lawyers, physicians, academics and even the curators of major museums. They will develop strategies to prevent civilian harm and deliver critical health services in areas plagued by violent conflict, most notably in the Middle East, central and north Africa and parts of Asia. 

“We also want to address the humanitarian and protective frameworks that operate in areas that are extremely violent but wouldn’t necessarily be defined as being in armed conflict, like in the northern triangle of Central America. The human toll in these areas is at least as great as some of these other more traditionally defined areas,” Wise said.

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Another of those areas is Myanmar, where nearly 700,000 ethnic Rohingya Muslims have fled to neighboring Bangladesh amid sectarian violence in the northern Rakhine province, in what the United Nations calls a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing.”

Rethinking is also headed up by global health expert Jaime Sepulvedaof the University of California, San Francisco, and Jennifer M. Welsh, a global governance and security expert at   McGill University in Canada. Their work will result in a series of publications, blog posts, videos, podcasts and op-eds as a means to reach not only a general audience but also local and field-based humanitarian health providers. The initiative will also seek the engagement of those directly victimized by violence in the areas of greatest concern. 

“We will come up with new strategies to protect civilians and deal with their needs when protection fails in the real world,” Wise said. “The goal is to make a difference in the real world. That’s a much more ambitious goal of course, but it’s the only goal that’s worthy of this kind of initiative.” 

A professor of pediatrics in the Medical School and core faculty member at Stanford Health Policy, Wise is also appointed in several international security programs at Stanford, including the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law,and the Center for International Security and Cooperation,and is a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

Wise said he is particularly excited about the prospect of working with those who curate and protect cultural heritage sites and objects.

“The other thing about the American Academy of Arts & Sciences is that we are not just academics, but artists, musicians, novelists — and we expect to take full advantage of breaking out into these disciplines that aren’t normally part of these conversations,” Wise said.

When fire nearly toppled Notre Dame in Paris three months ago, Parisians gathered near the French Gothic cathedral to pray and to sing. When al-Qaida seized control of the North African country of Mali in 2012, a band of librarians undertook a dangerous mission to protect 350,000 centuries-old Arabic texts and smuggled them out of the library in Timbuktu.

At a recent meeting at the Getty Museum in Los Angeles, Wise met with museum directors, archeologists and political scientists about the preservation of cultural heritage.

“It was very clear that there were enormous areas of overlap between the efforts to protect cultural heritage and the efforts to protect people,” he said. “They’re just pragmatically connected because when you start destroying things of cultural importance, it tends to be associated ultimately with atrocities against people.”

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During a recent trip to Burma, CDDRL’s Larry Diamond and Francis Fukuyama sat down with The Irrawaddy to weigh in on the country’s democratic transition and the upcoming general elections this November. In a series of interviews, both scholars highlighted recent events—including an internal political coup while they were there—to caution against these setbacks and suggest reforms to support Burma’s political development.

 

Larry Diamond Interviews:

'The USDP is Giving Itself an Electroal Handicap'

'Democracy is Not Going to be Achieved Fully in the November Elections

 

Francis Fukuyama Interview:

"It's Not That Hard to Hold a Free and Fair Election'

 

 

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The Leadership Academy for Development (LAD) offered a 1.5-day program consisting of two lectures and two case study discussions. The over-arching goal of the course program is to help country leaders explore the ways in which the private sector can play a more constructive role in economic development. The program consists of two components: lectures and case study discussions.

The lectures will cover the following topics: "What is Development? Understanding the Politics of Economic Change" and "New Approaches to Public Management."


Case studies for this course are available here.  

 

Naypyidaw, Myanmar

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In a piece for The Irrawaddy, Draper Hills Summer Fellow Zin Mar Aung ('13), a Burmese human rights activist, writes on recent attempts by nationalist monks in Burma to lobby for a new law, which would restrict interfaith marriages and interrupt individual freedoms. Aung critiques the so-called reformist government, calling all people of Burma, no matter gender, ethnicity or faith, to unite during Burma's democratic reform process.

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Larry Diamond, director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), received the 2013 Richard W. Lyman Award at a ceremony on January 22.

The Stanford Alumni Association (SAA) presents the annual Lyman Award to a faculty member who has gone "above and beyond" to engage alumni through volunteer activities that further the SAA's goal of lifelong learning.  

Stanford Provost John Etchemendy presented the Lyman award to Diamond, recognizing him as "a university citizen of the highest degree," noting his willingness to engage Stanford alumni "whenever and wherever around the globe."

Along with his academic and administrative roles at Stanford, Diamond has dedicated time and enthusiasm to engaging Stanford's alumni community through events and travel study trips.

Diamond, a senior fellow at FSI, also is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and serves as the faculty co-director of the Haas Center for Public Service. He earned three degrees at Stanford: a bachelor's degree in political organization and behavior in 1974; a master's degree at the Food Research Institute in 1978; and a doctorate in sociology in 1980.

In accepting the award, Diamond described his first visit to Stanford as a high school debate student where his eyes were as big as saucers when he first saw the campus. From that moment forward he set his sights on doing everything he could to study at Stanford.

"My smartest decision was to turn down Harvard to come to Stanford," said Diamond. "It has been a gift to be at Stanford for the most of the past 45 years and to witness the remarkable growth of the university."

Diamond also recognized the leadership of Stanford's seventh president, Richard Lyman, who Diamond got to know when he was a student leader on campus during the turbulence of the early 1970's.

Since 1991, Diamond has presented talks at regional alumni meetings in cities across the country, including Honolulu, Seattle, Denver, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and New York. He also spoke at Leading Matters, a series of events that shared Stanford's vision for the future with nearly 13,000 alumni, family members and friends around the world during the five-year Stanford Challenge fundraising campaign.  

Diamond recently returned from a two-week Stanford Travel-Study trip to Burma. He also has served as the faculty leader on alumni trips to Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, Korea, South Africa, and the Middle East.

On campus, Diamond has presented "Classes Without Quizzes" at Reunion Homecoming. During last year's Commencement weekend, he gave the Class Day Lecture. In 2007 Diamond received Stanford's Lloyd W. Dinkelspiel Award for outstanding contributions to undergraduate education.

The award was established in 1983 in honor of the late Richard W. Lyman, Stanford’s seventh president, who died in 2012. In addition to the award, the prize includes funding toward books and materials designated by the recipient for the Stanford University Libraries.

Recent Lyman Award winners include Hank Greely, a law professor; Lyman P. Van Slyke, professor emeritus of history; and Al Camarillo, professor of history and special assistant to the provost for faculty diversity.

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Abstract:
The peoples of Burma/Myanmar have faced military rule, human rights violations, and poor health outcomes for decades. The country Is now undergoing a political liberalization, and multiple changes in political, social and economic life. The human rights and health situation of the country's many ethnic nationalities remain challenging, and represent one of the clearest threats to the prospect of successful transition to peace, and to democracy. We will explore the current health and human rights situation in the country, the ongoing threats to peace, and ways forward for this least developed nation as it emerges from 5 decades of military rule.

Chris Beyrer MD, MPH, is a professor of Epidemiology, International Health, and Health, Behavior, and Society at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. He is the founding Director of the University¹s Center for Public Health and Human Rights, which seeks to bring the tools of population-based sciences to bear on Health and rights threats. Dr. Beyrer also serves as Associate Director of the Johns Hopkins Centers for AIDS Research (CFAR) and of the Center for Global Health. He has been involved in health and human rights work with Burmese populations since 1993. Prof. Beyrer is the author of more than 200 scientific papers, and author or editor of six books, including War in the Blood: Sex, Politics and AIDS in Southeast Asia, and Public Health and Human Rights: Evidence-Based Approaches. He has served as a consultant and adviser to numerous national and international institutions, including the National Institutes of Health, the World Bank, WHO, UNAIDS, the Open Society Foundations, the Walter Reed Army Institute for Research, amfAR The Foundation for AIDS Research, Physicians for Human Rights and Human Rights Watch. Dr. Beyrer received a BA in History from Hobart and Wm. Smith Colleges, his MD from SUNY Downstate in Brooklyn, NY, and completed his residency in Preventive Medicine, public health training, an MPH and a Infectious Diseases Fellowship at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He received an honorary Doctorate (PhD) in Health Sciences from Chiang Mai University in Thailand, in 2012, in recognition of his 20 years of public health service in Thailand

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