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The Chen administration has attempted to deal with the growing economic and technological links across the Taiwan Straits through confrontation with and coercion against Taiwanese businesses with investments in the People's Republic of China. These attempts have done little to stop the flow of capital and knowledge from Taiwan to China, but this failure is not necessarily bad for Taiwan even as it is a boon for China. This talk will address in which sectors and in what ways the flow of Taiwanese business activities to China have been beneficial or detrimental to each economy. Looking forward, the talk will also attempt to answer how further integration will benefit each side.

Douglas Fuller has spent over ten years researching technological development in East Asia. Most recently, he completed a doctorate at MIT in political economy. The topic of his thesis was technological development in China's IT industry. For this and previous research, he has interviewed IT firms in Malaysia, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the People's Republic of China and the US. He has published articles in Industry and Innovation and other peer-reviewed journals.

A wine and cheese reception will follow the seminar.

This is the inaugural seminar of the CDDRL Taiwan Democracy Program and it is co-sponsored by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center.

Philippines Conference Room

Doug Fuller SPRIE Postdoctoral Fellow Speaker
Seminars
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For years policymakers in China have advocated creating "Silicon Valleys" in China, but only recently has China's semiconductor industry taken off. Rather than the state leading the way, economic globalization has created the large flow of capital and knowledge to the developing world that has spurred China's technological development in recent years.

However, not all firms in China benefit equally from these inflows of financial and human capital. Presenting both industry-wide data and case studies of individual firms, Dr. Fuller will explain how the politics of finance in China shape which Chinese chip firms become fast learners able to compete in world markets and which ones remain technological laggards.

Douglas Fuller has spent over ten years researching technological development in East Asia. Most recently, he completed a doctorate at MIT in political economy. The topic of his thesis was technological development in China's IT industry. For this and previous research, he has interviewed IT firms in Malaysia, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the People's Republic of China and the US. He has published articles in Industry and Innovation and other peer-reviewed journals.

Part of SPRIE's Greater China and the Globalization of R&D seminar series.

Philippines Conference Room

Doug Fuller SPRIE Postdoctoral Fellow Speaker
Seminars
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Dr. Brumberg is an Associate Professor in the Department of Government at Georgetown University. He received his BA in French and Political Science from Indiana University, and his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. From 1991 to 1993 he was a Visiting Professor in the Department of Political Science at Emory University, and a Visiting Fellow in the Middle East Program in the Jimmy Carter Center.

He lived and studied in Egypt for three years, and has also conducted field research in Iran, Indonesia and Kuwait. The author of many articles on political and social change in the Middle East and wider Islamic World, his Reinventing Khomeini: The Struggle for Reform in Iran was published in April 2001 by The University of Chicago Press.

A member of the Editorial Board of the Journal of Democracy and the Advisory Board of the International Forum on Democratic Studies, Dr. Brumberg is also Chairman of the non-profit Foundation on Democratization and Political Change in the Middle East. In 1998-1999 he was a Randolph Peace Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace, where he pursued a study of power sharing in the Middle East and South East Asia.

Drawing from this research, Dr. Brumberg is now writing a comparative study of successful and failed power sharing experiments in Algeria, Kuwait and Indonesia.

Encina Hall
Downstairs Conference Room

Daniel Brumberg Associate Professor of Government Georgetown University
Conferences
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The field of authoritarian subtypes has usefully described the third wave's undercurrent, an international trend toward plebiscitarian politics among persistent dictatorships. Yet classification does not replace explanation and the proliferation of "authoritarianism with adjectives" risks diverting attention from the core question of comparative regime change studies: Under what conditions do authoritarian regimes become democracies? This paper attempts to reorient the study of contemporary authoritarianism with a theory of ruling parties and coalition management. Whether electoral or exclusionary, authoritarian regimes with ruling parties prove more robust than other nondemocratic systems. Statistical analysis of 135 regimes during the period 1975-2000 shows that the presence or absence of multiparty elections, the key feature of the brand new authoritarianism, has no significant impact on regime survival while party institutionalization remains a strong predictor of regime longevity. Process tracing in four cases with limited multiparty politics details the causal relationship between ruling parties and regime persistence. Egypt and Malaysia evince a pattern of durability in which the dominant party resolves intra-elite conflict and prevents the defection of influential leaders. Iran and the Philippines show that the decline of ruling party institutions generates elite polarization and public rifts, a necessary but insufficient condition for successful opposition mobilization and regime change. Contrary to widespread expectations, elections do not destabilize authoritarian regimes. Authoritarian regimes that have neglected the institutions of coalition maintenance destabilize elections.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
CDDRL Working Papers
Authors
Jason M. Brownlee
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Hosted by the Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE) as part of their Greater China Forum which meets first Tuesday of each month.

Joseph Y. Liu

President, CEO, and member, Board of Directors, Oplink Communications, Inc.

Oplink designs, manufactures, and markets fiber optic products and services that increase the performance of optical networks, including its photonic foundry with manufacturing activities in Zhuhai and design and engineering in San Jose.

Sam T. Wang, Ph.D.

President, SMIC Americas, the US operations of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)

With an IPO in March 2004 (and current market cap of $3.6 billion), SMIC is China's most advanced pure play IC foundry company, with wafer fabs located in Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin, including its Fab 1 named "Top Fab of the Year for 2003" by Semiconductor International.

Tien Wu, Ph.D.

President, ASE Americas, Europe and Japan, Board of Directors and Corporate Vice President, Worldwide Marketing and Strategy, ASE Inc., and Chief Executive Officer, ISE Labs Inc (An ASE Test Company)

The ASE Group is the world's largest provider of independent semiconductor manufacturing services in assembly and test with $2.9 billion sales revenue in 2003, 29,000 employees worldwide, and facilities across Asia, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Philippines Conference Room

Joseph Y. Liu President, CEO, and Member, Board of Directors Oplink Communications, Inc.
Sam T. Wang President, SMIC Americas the US operations of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation
Tien Wu President, ASE Americas, Europe, and Japan, Board of Directors and Corporate Vice President, Worldwide Marketing and Strategy, ASE Inc., and Chief Executive Officer, ISE Labs Inc (An ASE Test Company)
William F. Miller Co-director Moderator SPRIE
Seminars
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A buffet lunch will be available to those who RSVP by 12:00 p.m. Monday, May 3 to Debbie Warren at dawarren@stanford.edu. Douglas H. Paal is the director of the American Institute in Taiwan, the unofficial instrument for U.S. relations with Taiwan. Previously, he was president of the Asia Pacific Policy Center (APPC), a nonprofit institution in Washington, DC, which advocated bipartisan policy in the promotion of trade and investment, as well as defense and security ties across the Pacific. Prior to forming the APPC, Mr. Paal was special assistant to President Bush for National Security Affairs and senior director for Asian Affairs on the National Security Council, where he also served in the Reagan Administration. Mr. Paal has worked in the State Department with the Policy Planning Staff and as a senior analyst for the CIA. He also served in the U.S. Embassies in Singapore and Beijing. He studied Asian history at Brown and Harvard Universities and the Japanese language in Tokyo. He has published frequently on Asian affairs and national security issues.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall

Douglas Paal Director American Institute in Taiwan
Seminars
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Chairman King, Ranking Member Moloney and distinguished members of the committee, my name is Peter Henry Blair. I am Associate Professor of Economics at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business. I am also a Faculty Research Fellow of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and my research is funded by the National Science Foundation's Early CAREER Development Program. I have wirtten extensively on the economic effects of capital account liberalization. Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the implications of my research for the financial services component of the recent U.S. trade agreements with Chile and Singapore.

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Testimonies
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U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services, in "Opening Trade in Financial Services - The Chile and Singapore Examples"
Authors
Peter Blair Henry
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