Introduction and Contribution:

Indigenous peoples constitute at least 8% of Latin America's population, well over 40 million in total, depending on whether one measures this by self-identification or proficiency in an indigenous language. Over the five centuries since Latin America’s colonization, indígenas have been subjected to myriad injustices, from genocide and linguicide to dispossession, forced assimilation, and political exclusion. However, during the last two decades, indigenous identities have entered Latin America’s political mainstream, indigenous candidates and parties have grown in popularity, and traditional political debates — for example, over fair economic development — have been increasingly addressed using the language of indigenous rights and autonomy.

Social scientific knowledge about indigenous peoples has improved considerably, and in ways that reflect many of these ongoing processes. Yet gaps persist, partly owing to the neglect of scholarship written by indigenous peoples (and in non-English languages) as well as the shoehorning of indigenous life into categories such as “peasants” or “poor masses.” The time is thus ripe for a critical examination.

In “Original Peoples Count,” Alberto Díaz-Cayeros and Irma Alicia Velasquez Nimatuj systematically review current scholarship on indigenous peoples in Latin America. The authors demonstrate how much has been learned about trends in indigenous language use, the virtues of indigenous political institutions, the dangers of indigenous environmental activism, and much more. Looking ahead, the authors call for greater attention to the threats posed by the rapid growth of artificial intelligence, as well as to the persistence of disparities in indigenous health outcomes.

Counting Indigenous Peoples and Languages:

One important cause of indigenous marginalization is that many colonial and post-colonial governments simply refused to recognize their existence. Nation-building elites privileged Spanish and Portuguese and made deliberate choices about which identities to include in censuses. Relatedly, the very category “indigenous” reflects colonial efforts to homogenize millions of diverse peoples, and many indigenous peoples do not identify as such. There is tremendous variation in terms of the languages that indigenous peoples speak and the demographics of where they live. Not only do these territories cut across national borders, but many indigenous peoples have a distinctive understanding of borders, as representing sacred — rather than merely administrative — divisions.
 

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Figure 2. Unceded Territories of Indigenous Peoples in Latin America
 

Despite the visibility of language loss and extinction, panel data collected since the 1990s paint a more nuanced picture. Diaz-Cayeros and Nimatuj highlight several important trends along these lines. For one, the number of indigenous language speakers has increased across every age cohort. Second, there was a dramatic increase in indigenous language speakers around age 40 in the 2000s, followed by an increase in speakers under 40 in the 2010s. What this suggests is not that more people are learning indigenous languages, but that more speakers are willing to reveal their identities to surveyors. The latter is itself a political phenomenon that reflects growing indigenous consciousness.
 

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Figure 1. Identity Revelation in Latin American Census Data
 

Indigenous Politics and Economics:

Over the last two decades, indigenous politics has moved from street protests to the highest levels of government, with Evo Morales winning Bolivia’s presidency. Yet these improvements in indigenous peoples’ descriptive representation have not always produced substantive reductions in poverty and discrimination. This is one reason why indigenous parties cannot automatically rely on indigenous vote blocs; understanding why these parties enjoy more or less consistent support is a key question for future research.

Outside of mainstream politics, traditional institutions such as indigenous assemblies have grown in number and prominence. Scholars have documented cases where these institutions exhibited highly democratic properties. These include high competitiveness and turnout, which arguably produce greater accountability to ordinary people. Indigenous governance may thus provide insights into how Latin American politics can become more encompassing and participatory, moving beyond simply electing and removing candidates once every few years.

In terms of socioeconomic trends, indigenous rates of poverty, infant mortality, and school enrollment lag behind the rest of the population. These outcomes are usually worse for women, partly owing to the persistence of indigenous patriarchal norms. Meanwhile, indigenous economies have been substantially reshaped by large-scale industrial activity, especially mining and logging. The authors caution, however, against assuming that indigenous peoples uniformly oppose these activities. At the same time, local efforts to rein in industrial activity are often met with extremely punitive state action — leading to the imprisonment or death of key indigenous leaders. Latin America is now the world’s most dangerous region for environmental activism.

Directions for Future Research:

One likely cause of indigenous marginality is ‘historical trauma,’ or rather the ways that colonialism and post-colonial discrimination have transmitted social and psychological harm across generations. The authors call for greater attention to the varied political effects of historical trauma, including depressed indigenous participation, lower levels of trust in political institutions, and worse life outcomes. Similarly, despite visible efforts by Latin American governments to undertake health interventions, substantial gaps persist within indigenous communities, particularly in mental health.

Another topic for further research concerns the lives of indigenous youth, especially those who migrate to urban centers for work. Migration generates multiple overlapping challenges, including cultural adjustment, political marginality, and economic precarity. Finally, the growth of ‘digital colonialism’ demands greater attention. Artificial intelligence has generated a host of injustices, such as environmental degradation, algorithmic discrimination against indigenous languages, and the nonconsensual extraction of indigenous knowledge. The authors close by noting that indigenous peoples may use AI to make their histories ever more visible. In all, “Original Peoples Count” is an ambitious review that will likely inform the next generation of scholarship on indigenous politics.

*Brief prepared by Adam Fefer.

The Firestone Medal for Excellence in Undergraduate Research recognizes Stanford's top 10% of honors theses in the social sciences, science, and engineering among graduating seniors. Marco’s thesis is entitled, “When Democracy Counts: Testing the Demand-Side Micrologics of Backsliding with Evidence from Indonesia.” It poses the question, do Indonesian citizens fail to punish democratic backsliding at the ballot box? Over more than a decade of democratic decline, Indonesian voters have shown remarkably little alarm, continuing to reward leaders associated with democratic erosion while professing support for democracy. This thesis investigates the demand-side foundations of that puzzle, probing whether the content of democracy might itself be the problem. To pinpoint precisely where and how the accountability chain breaks down, Marco fielded an original nationally-representative survey experiment in February 2026 with Indikator Politik Indonesia (N = 1,566), randomly assigning Indonesian respondents to one of three definitions of democracy — electoral, liberal, or substantive — and tracking their responses across four hypothetical scenarios. To measure treatment comprehension and experimental manipulation, he scored open-ended responses using a novel multi-model LLM coding ensemble. Combined, this empirical design enabled him to discriminate between two candidate diagnoses of conceptual failure: that Indonesian citizens hold conceptions of democracy that simply diverge from those of scholars (the divergent conceptions argument), or that “democracy” itself carries too little evaluative content to differentiate governance failures of different kinds (the thinness argument). Ultimately, the evidence points overwhelmingly in support of the latter interpretation — that for many Indonesian citizens, “democracy” functions less as a thick descriptive concept than as a thin term of approval whose application tracks perceived governance quality. The divergent conceptions hypothesis, meanwhile, yields a robust null across thirteen specifications. In this era of backsliding, the conceptual thinning of “democracy” carries severe implications for the validity of cross-comparative survey research, for the elite strategies that exploit the term’s elasticity, and for the resilience of democracy in Indonesia and beyond.

Shayla’s thesis is entitled “Bound by the Ballot? Autocratic Compliance After Electoral Defeat.” When autocrats lose elections, what determines whether they comply with the electorate's judgment? And if they resist, what determines whether they succeed? Despite the frequency and consequences of autocratic electoral crises, electoral compliance decisions remain undertheorized. To address this gap, Shayla proposes a two-stage theory of incumbent compliance. At Stage 1, pre-election structural conditions — military control, elite unity, and international vulnerability — determine whether resistance is viable. At Stage 2, activated only if resistance occurs, two reactive forces — mass mobilization and activated international pressure — become salient. Drawing on an original dataset of elections held in autocratic regimes between 1970 and 2018, the results partially support and partially challenge this theory. While structural weakness reliably precludes resistance, structural strength does not reliably cause it; among cases where resistance occurs, high, cohesive international pressure emerges as the most consistent determinant of whether incumbents ultimately exit. This thesis posits that compliance is best understood as a process shaped by forces operating at different moments, and that this temporal distinction has both implications for how scholars and international actors understand and respond to electoral crises in electoral autocracies.

Honoring a Legacy of Community Building

Zoe Savellos, a Stanford graduate and member of CDDRL’s Fisher Family Honors Class of 2018, passed away in 2025 at the age of 29. She is remembered by those who knew her as brilliant, generous, and deeply committed to others. To honor her memory and the spirit she brought to the CDDRL community, the center has established the Zoe Savellos Memorial Award for Community Building.

“Zoe’s palpable passion for her thesis research and to make a genuine difference in the world inspired a sense of optimism and confidence in our CDDRL cohort to dream bigger and push through when we didn’t think we could,” shared her friend and classmate Kelsey Page ‘18. “As I struggled toward the thesis deadline, Zoe not only helped me with last-minute formatting questions long after she had completed her own thesis, but also brought me a blazer for my presentation when I forgot one. Zoe enthusiastically counting down the minutes to the completion of my thesis so we could celebrate together is just one example of how she placed shared joy over individual accomplishment — she was everyone's biggest cheerleader.”

Presented annually within CDDRL’s Fisher Family Honors Program, the award will recognize a student selected by their peers for their meaningful contributions to the strength of the honors cohort. The class of 2026 has selected Zoya Fasihuddin, an Economics major also studying Human Rights, as the first recipient of this award.

“I'm so honored, and this is entirely a reflection of the cohort we all got to be a part of, as well as Steve and María’s leadership,” shared Zoya. “While I didn't have the privilege of knowing Zoe, everything that’s been shared about her in terms of her warmth and empathy is exactly the kind of person I aspire to be.”

The cohort experience is central to the Honors Program. Students engage deeply with one another’s work and navigate the challenges of independent research together. The Zoe Savellos Memorial Award for Community Building recognizes the important role students play in shaping that experience and honors the individual whose support, enthusiasm, and community-building spirit help create a more connected and meaningful collective experience.

The Class of 2026

Marco, Shayla, and Zoya are part of a cohort of 12 graduating CDDRL honors students who have spent the past year working in consultation with CDDRL-affiliated faculty members and attending honors research workshops to develop their thesis projects. The theses this year covered topics as wide-ranging as democratic resilience and authoritarian elections, feminist mobilization in Pakistan, Indigenous reunification and identity in Oklahoma, net neutrality and regulatory politics, economic protectionism, collective memory in Spain, and the role of retired military leaders in American elections.

"We could not be prouder of this cohort of seniors in the Fisher Family Honors Program and the theses they produced," shared María Ignacia Curiel, a Research Scholar at CDDRL who co-teaches the Honors Program alongside Stephen Stedman. "Born from a year of scholarly perseverance and camaraderie, these projects genuinely advance our understanding of democracy, development, and the rule of law around the world."

In addition to the Firestone Medal, CDDRL Outstanding Thesis Award, and the Zoe Savellos Memorial Award for Community Building, members of the Class of 2026 have received several other honors heading into graduation:

• Anagali Duncan received the 2026 Lloyd W. Dinkelspiel Award, which recognizes distinctive contributions to undergraduate education and the quality of student life.
• Emma Wang and Marco Widodo are among the newest members elected to the Phi Beta Kappa academic honors society.
• Anagali Duncan, Dani Gonzalez-Gaubecka, Emma Wang, Lila Batcheller, Lorraine Cioffi, and Rachel Owens have all received the Award of Excellence. Designed to recognize the top 10% of the class, this award honors graduating seniors who have demonstrated a sincere commitment to the university through involvement, leadership, and extraordinary Stanford spirit.
   

CDDRL's Fisher Family Honors Program trains students from any academic department at Stanford to write a policy-relevant research thesis with global impact on a subject related to democracy, development, and the rule of law. Honors students participate in research methods workshops, attend Honors College in Washington, D.C., connect to the CDDRL research community, and write their thesis in close consultation with a faculty advisor to graduate with a certificate of honors in democracy, development, and the rule of law.
 

Explore the rest of the thesis topics of the Fisher Family Honors Program Class of 2026 below:

At the institute level, the partnership also reinforces Stanford’s broader role in advancing research and engagement on democracy.

“As the threats to democratic governance around the world multiply, so too must our commitment to the rigorous, interdisciplinary scholarship that seeks to understand and address them,” said Colin Kahl, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “Bringing the esteemed Journal of Democracy to CDDRL creates a powerful nexus for this vital work, strengthening FSI's role as a global leader in the study of democracy."

At the same time, the partnership comes at a moment of heightened global pressure on democratic institutions, underscoring the importance of the Journal’s role in the field.

“We are now in the twentieth consecutive year of global democratic decline — no longer just a ‘democratic recession,’ but a broader wave of authoritarian reversals,” said Larry Diamond. “Yet the struggle for democracy continues. Now more than ever, we need to understand both the causes of democratic decay and the conditions for recovery and renewal. The Journal of Democracy is unique in combining rigorous scholarship with timely, accessible analysis of developments around the world.”

For Stanford students, the partnership creates a more direct pathway into the world of ideas, publishing, and public scholarship. Through new editorial internships, undergraduates and recent graduate alumni can gain hands-on experience working with a leading journal that bridges scholarship and practice.

It also strengthens Stanford’s intellectual presence in democracy studies by giving CDDRL-affiliated faculty a more formal role in supporting the Journal’s work through serving on its editorial board. Stanford faculty will contribute to the Journal’s editorial mission, inspire new lines of inquiry, and help to identify emerging areas of research to be explored in its pages.

“This partnership with CDDRL is exceptionally exciting for the Journal of Democracy and its readers,” shared Will Dobson, the Journal’s co-editor. “CDDRL is not only the leading research center in the field, but its long history of collaboration with the Journal makes this a natural fit. We are thrilled to be working with CDDRL and with the possibilities this partnership will unlock.”

With a wide readership and growing digital footprint, the Journal of Democracy reaches audiences across academia, government, journalism, and civil society. It publishes roughly 100 online-exclusive essays each year alongside its quarterly print issues and engages readers through newsletters with more than 20,000 subscribers, across social media, in Apple News, and on leading podcasts. As the most-read journal in the Johns Hopkins University Press portfolio of more than 750 publications, it has become a central venue for ideas about democratic governance and political change worldwide. Through its partnership with CDDRL, the Journal is positioned to expand that reach even further — drawing on Stanford’s research community and global practitioner networks to bring new voices and perspectives into the conversation.