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Does the outbreak of a major international war change political discourse? Drawing on theories of political communication and elite cueing, identity salience, and threat perception, we hypothesize that the outbreak of a war of aggression by a major power increases the use of nationalist rhetoric by heads of government in other, non-belligerent, states.

To test this hypothesis, we analyse over 10,000 tweets by heads of government from 130 countries before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using word embeddings, we map politicians' tweets along a nationalist–cosmopolitan spectrum and show a significant shift toward nationalist political discourse on the online platform.

Subgroup analysis reveals that this effect was stronger among leaders of member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Yet, leaders from countries that are members of the pro-Russia Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and those with past experiences of irredentism or territorial armed conflicts — thus resembling the Russia–Ukraine war — did not increase their resort to nationalist rhetoric.

These findings offer new insights into how — in the digital age — conflict in one place can diffuse into politics elsewhere.

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Ana Paula Pellegrino
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At the 2025 Daniel Pearl Memorial Lecture, journalist and author Amir Tibon discussed how his family survived Hamas’ invasion from Gaza into Israel on Saturday, October 7, 2023, the history of Israeli-Gazan relations, as well as scenarios for the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“Rockets are falling,” Tibon said, reading a portion of his new book, The Gates of Gaza: A Story of Betrayal, Survival, and Home in Israel's Borderlands. “We [Amir Tibon, his wife Miri, and their two infant daughters] are locked in this room inside our house. We certainly had never heard a bullet cracking through a window and hitting a wall inside a sealed house. Let alone our house. But that's exactly what we were now hearing.”

In the May 12 discussion with Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Tibon described that harrowing day and the heroic account of how his father, retired Major General Noam Tibon, fought his way into Kibbutz Nahal-Oz, and eventually helped rescue the family.

The Daniel Pearl Memorial Lecture honors the life of Daniel Pearl (Class of '85), who was a journalist, musician, and family man dedicated to the ideals of peace and humanity. In 2002, Daniel was kidnapped and killed by terrorists in Pakistan while working as a foreign correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. The event was hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law.

An audience of nearly 200 guests filled Bechtel Conference Center to hear Tibon speak.
An audience of nearly 200 guests filled Bechtel Conference Center to hear Tibon speak. | Rod Searcey

‘Keep the girls calm and quiet’


For almost 10 hours on October 7, Tibon and his wife and daughters listened to the sounds of gunfire and rockets outside, while monitoring Hamas atrocities on their phones and sending desperate SOS messages from their darkened safe room. 

Tibon said, “We had only one advantage, which is that we could hear them, we could hear their bullets, we could hear their shouting, and if we managed to keep the girls calm and quiet, they wouldn't hear us. And so that was our mission, to keep the girls calm and quiet.” 

They did, waiting until about 4:00 pm when the family was eventually freed by Tibon’s father, who drove with his mother from Tel Aviv to rescue the besieged family. Along the way, his parents made key decisions to rescue wounded Israelis by taking them to the hospital.

Learning later on about his parents’ dangerous foray into a war zone — and the aid they offered along the way — Tibon gained a deeper insight about saving those in grave peril. This informs his moral stance on prioritizing the rescue of the remaining 58 hostages — alive and dead — still held by Hamas in Gaza, over the competing priority of dismantling Hamas as a military and governing organization:

“When I look today at the dilemma of the state of Israel, whether to continue the war after 20 months or to stop in order to save those who need immediate saving, I don't see a dilemma. You save those who need immediate saving, and then you continue the mission,” said Tibon, focusing on the fates of the approximately 20 living Israeli hostages still held in Gaza.

When Diamond asked him about the word “betrayal” in the book’s subtitle, Tibon said the dual meaning of the term is a conscious one. The word “betrayal” reflects two concepts — the failure of the Israeli government, military, and intelligence services to heed early danger warnings about a Hamas attack, and the disappointment about their neighbors in Gaza, with whom they had for years worked with on peace and reconciliation issues. 

He recalled kibbutz members who volunteered to take cancer patients from Gaza in their cars to Israeli hospitals so they could receive optimal medical treatments.

“This was a peace-seeking community that, for many years, advocated for peace and reconciliation,” he said.

Following the conversation, Tibon took questions from the audience.
Following the conversation, Tibon took questions from the audience. | Rod Searcey

As for accountability, Tibon emphasized the need for Israel to launch an independent and professional investigation into the October 7 catastrophe through a State Commission of Inquiry. Such an inquiry would examine the causes of the strategic, intelligence, defensive, and operational breakdowns experienced by Israel before, during, and after the attack, and would establish who was responsible for the multiple failures. 

“This is the strongest tool in the Israeli system for investigating failures of the state. It's a commission established by the government, headed by a former judge, that has all the powers of a seated court to invite witnesses and investigate,” he added, noting that the current government has not yet approved such an endeavor, despite about 70-85 percent of Israelis supporting such a commission.

Tibon said, “The government is refusing to do it because they are afraid of what will come out.”

‘Shifted public opinion’


The October 7 Hamas terrorist attack marked a major, and rather peculiar, shift in domestic Israeli politics, Tibon said.

“It shifted public opinion on the conflict to the right because there is a lack of belief in the peace process after this kind of thing. And at the same time, it significantly weakened the current right-wing government, which in all the public opinion polls is losing a lot of support,” he said.

He explained that this trend reveals that Israelis currently do not believe in a peace process and that they perceive an existential need to defend their families and homeland. 

At the same time, Israelis want a serious and competent government, and the existing right-leaning government is not viewed as such.

“We have to be led and managed by competent, serious people, and this government is not considered competent or serious by most of the Israeli public for obvious reasons,” he said.
 


Forever wars may be good for religious preachers, but they're not good for border communities. Border communities need to reach an end and go back and rebuild.
Amir Tibon


In his book, Tibon expresses deep empathy for the people who are suffering in Gaza, and he reflects on another subtitle, “hope.”

Hope can begin, he said, with saving the Israeli hostages and then ending the war. “Forever wars may be good for religious preachers, but they're not good for border communities. Border communities need to reach an end and go back and rebuild,” said Tibon.

He cited a Polish poet, who once wrote that after every war, somebody has to clean up. “We are the ones who are going to have to clean up and fix our own houses,” he said.

Tibon is an award-winning diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper. His story and book, The Gates of Gaza, was featured on 60 Minutes.

He, his wife, and daughters are currently living in temporary housing in north-central Israel.  

Diamond said, “This is a story of remarkable courage and tenacity from many quarters in the face of unspeakable terror and potentially paralyzing fear. It is quintessentially an Israeli story.”

A full recording of the conversation can be viewed here.

The 2025 Daniel Pearl Memorial Lecture was presented by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program in partnership with the Daniel Pearl Foundation, the Taube Center for Jewish Studies, and Hillel at Stanford

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Yoav Heller presented during a Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies winter webinar.
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Dr. Yoav Heller on Rebuilding Centrist Politics and Uniting Israelis

Dr. Heller, founder of the Fourth Quarter, discussed how grassroots centrist movements can overcome identity-driven polarization in Israel by fostering unity, especially in the wake of national tragedy, and emphasized the need for long-term internal peace-building and reimagining Israeli society’s future.
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Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat discusses diplomacy during a seminar hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program.
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Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat on the Art of Diplomacy

In a seminar hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program, Eizenstat explored why diplomats succeed or fail, drawing from his firsthand experience with world leaders.
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Eugene Kandel presents via Zoom in a webinar hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Program.
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Eugene Kandel on Tackling Israel’s Internal Existential Risks

Kandel's talk with Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Amichai Magen focused on his work at the Israel Strategic Futures Institute (ISFI) in diagnosing what he and his colleagues identify as internal existential risks for Israel and the policy ideas generated by ISFI in response to those risks.
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Journalist and author Amir Tibon spoke with Larry Diamond at the May 12 event.
Journalist and author Amir Tibon spoke with Larry Diamond at the May 12 event.
Rod Searcey
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Journalist Amir Tibon shared his family’s story of survival, betrayal, and hope for peace with a Stanford audience, while also offering insights on contemporary Israeli politics.

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Nora Sulots
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In May 2024, Georgia's president, Salome Zourabichvili, vetoed the Parliament's contentious anti-foreign agent law, but called her act "symbolic," as the majority Georgian Dream party promised to override the veto at their next session.

In a talk hosted by The Europe Center on May 28, Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), explored Georgia's democratic aspirations within the context of the law, dissecting its potential ramifications for civil society, political freedoms, and Georgia's European integration ambitions.

Professor Stoner, who was awarded an honorary doctorate in 2016 from Iliad State University in Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia, also discussed the politics and complexities of the recent law and its implications for Georgia's future.

A recording of the talk can be viewed below:

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Geline Fuko in Georgia
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Being Part of the Leadership Network for Change Program Kept Me on Track

2022 Summer Fellows alumna Geline Fuko (Tanzania) reflects on her experience at CDDRL’s April 2023 LNC reunion in Georgia.
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Tbilisi, Georgia
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What’s Going On in Georgia? A Democracy Activist Explains the Nation’s Current Political Crisis and Turbulent History

On the World Class Podcast, Georgian activist Nino Evgenidze discusses the arrest of opposition leader Nika Melia and what it means for Georgia, the region and the world.
What’s Going On in Georgia? A Democracy Activist Explains the Nation’s Current Political Crisis and Turbulent History
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Thousands of demonstrators opposing the bill on 'transparency of foreign influence' gather in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, on May 11, 2024.
Thousands of demonstrators opposing the bill on 'transparency of foreign influence' gather in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, on May 11, 2024.
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Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of CDDRL, discussed the politics and complexities of the anti-foreign agent law and its implications for Georgia's future.

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Senem is the Program Manager for Reform for Results at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. She has over a decade of experience in fundraising and project management in non-profit organizations in Istanbul, Turkey. Before coming to Stanford, she served as a Development Associate at the School of Music and Arts in the Bay Area.

Senem holds a Bachelor of Arts in Communication and Design from Bilkent University. She has a passion for the arts and enjoys baking and traveling with her family in her free time.

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Kumi Naidoo is a prominent South African human rights and environmental justice activist. At the age of fifteen, he organized school boycotts against the apartheid educational system in South Africa. His courageous actions made him a target for the Security Police, leading to his exile in the United Kingdom, where he remained until 1990. Upon his return to South Africa, Kumi played a pivotal role in the legalization of the African National Congress in his home province of KwaZulu Natal.

Kumi also served as the official spokesperson for the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), responsible for overseeing the country's first democratic elections in April 1994. His dedication to democracy and justice led to notable international roles, including being the first person from the global South to lead Greenpeace International as Executive Director from 2009 to 2016. He later served as the Secretary General of Amnesty International from 2018 to 2020.

In the realm of education, Kumi has shared his expertise, lecturing at Fossil Free University and holding a Richard von Weizsäcker Fellowship at the Robert Bosch Academy until early 2022.

Currently, Kumi serves as a Senior Advisor for the Community Arts Network (CAN). He holds the position of Distinguished visiting lecturer at Stanford University’s Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, and is a Professor of Practice at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University. Additionally, he continues to represent global interests as a Global Ambassador for Africans Rising for Justice, Peace, and Dignity. He also holds positions as a Visiting Fellow at Oxford University and an Honorary Fellow at Magdalen College.

In a testament to his family's commitment to positive change, they have established the Riky Rick Foundation for the Promotion of Artivism, honoring the legacy of their son and brother, the now late South African rapper Rikhado “Riky Rick” Makhado through a commitment to supporting artivism and mental health in South Africa.

Kumi has authored and co-authored numerous books, the most recent being Letters To My Mother (2022), a personal and professional memoir that won the HSS 2023 non-fiction award by the National Institute Humanities and Social Sciences.

Payne Distinguished Lecturer, 2023-25
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Rachel Owens
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As part of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law’s Fall 2023 Research Seminar series, University of Southern California Political Scientists, Hoover Fellows, and CDDRL affiliated scholars Erin Baggot Carter and Brett Carter presented findings from their latest book Propaganda in Autocracies: Institutions, Information, and the Politics of Belief (Cambridge University Press, 2023). The book offers unique insight into how and why autocratic regimes use propaganda.

Under authoritarian regimes with “non-binding electoral constraints,” the authors explained, the goal of propaganda is to intimidate citizens and convey the idea that the regime can survive without their support. Propaganda in this context also makes the consequences of dissent common knowledge, thereby saving the regime the cost of actual repression. 

As for regimes with binding electoral constraints, their use of propaganda is often aimed at creating a semblance of credibility with a view to enhancing the functioning of future messaging. This involves mixing fact and fiction by exploiting the infrequent provision of public goods and occasionally conceding policy failures. The latter can sometimes prove damaging to the regime since it may contribute to future protests and unrest. 

The data compiled and analyzed by the Carters in this book constitute the world’s largest dataset on propaganda in autocracies, comprising 80 newspapers from 70 countries. Based on extensive coding and computational linguistics techniques, the authors used the coverage of about 8 million articles to build several measures of pro-regime propaganda.

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Propaganda in Autocracies: Institutions, Information, and the Politics of Belief (Cambridge University Press, 2023). | Rachel Cody Owens

Propaganda in Autocracies is full of novel findings on how repressive governments approach propaganda. For example, the book challenges conventional wisdom that the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) propaganda is actually persuasive to its citizens. Using an innovative list experiment, they found no evidence that citizens’ beliefs were swayed by propaganda, although exposure to propaganda can reduce people’s propensity to protest by cueing fear. 

By analyzing propaganda trends over time, the book brings to light the CCP’s strategies of control during anniversaries of pro-democracy events. For most such anniversaries, regime propaganda remained the same. Yet, for salient anniversaries, like that of the Tiananmen Square massacre, the regime propped up its propaganda messaging. The authors found that repression against the ethnic Uygurs is often more heavily broadcasted, possibly to showcase the regime’s repressive power.

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Brett Carter and Erin Baggot Carter present their new book during CDDRL's Fall 2023 Research Seminar Series
Brett Carter and Erin Baggot Carter present their new book during CDDRL's Fall 2023 Research Seminar Series.
Rachel Cody Owens
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Erin Baggot Carter and Brett Carter discuss their new book in the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law’s weekly research seminar.

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Governance in California

Governance is the way that societies make decisions and solve problems. Good governance is difficult when a society is divided in its values, when trust in governing institutions is low, when political participation is biased along various social lines, and when there is not enough reliable information and structured debate in the media. Complicating matters further, governments may not be able to reach important decisions when there are too many veto points that enable small groups to delay or stop decisions, regardless of their merit or public support. Finally, even after a decision is made, governmental agencies may lack the personnel and capacity to implement and administer policies.

While California’s governance system has solved many problems, its governance system suffers from significant challenges in many areas. These include: hard problems (with large-scale challenges associated with climate change, housing, poverty, and more), multiple veto points in public decision-making, partisan division, and polarization, lack of trust in institutions, biased participation in public decisions, and the need to accelerate the modernization and strengthening of civil service in state and local government.

SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE


The following are presented as four possible scenarios for California’s governance, media, and civil society future.
 

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A California 100 Report on Policies and Future Scenarios

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California 100
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Francis Fukuyama
Michael Bennon
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Meduza.io

Meduza is the last remaining independent Russian media outlet. It continues to reach millions of people inside the country despite the project’s newsroom having to operate from exile for the last eight years. In April 2021, Russian authorities designated Meduza as a “foreign agent” in an attempt to knock out its advertising income, and weeks after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the government began blocking Meduza’s website outright. Finally, in January 2023, the Kremlin banned Meduza completely, declaring the outlet an illegal “undesirable organization.”

In an event* hosted by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University, Meduza’s editor-in-chief and CTO will discuss what is happening in Russia’s media landscape, how they covered the last year of brutal warfare in Ukraine and the invasion’s reverberations back in Russia, how readers in Russia have responded to the war, the nature of “proxy reporting,” and the challenges in maintaining journalistic objectivity when you’re treated like an outlaw. Meduza’s senior managers will also talk about how the outlet delivers content to people inside Russia, behind the Kremlin’s Internet firewall.

*Please note that this event is open to Stanford affiliates and invited guests only.

You can also follow Meduza’s English-language edition or support the newsroom’s work with one-time or recurring donations. 

Philippines Conference Room
Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central, C330
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

This event is open to Stanford affiliates and invited guests only.

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