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ABSTRACT

This lecture will consider the challenge of moving from a negotiated transition to a consolidated democracy as exemplified by the case critical of Tunisia. The country's upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, to be held respectively in September and October 2019, will provide a vital although not easy opportunity to move beyond the power sharing, consensus-based political pact negotiated in 2014, to a more consolidated democracy, one which presumably will be led by a government representing a clear majority. The shift from a cooperative, positive sum model of governance to a zero sum, non-cooperative model faces many obstacles, including the enduring Islamist/secular divide, as well as still socio-economic significant cleavage pitting advocates of state intervention and social welfare against advocates of free market reforms. The upcoming elections might provide an incentive for new ruling and opposition coalitions that would facilitate the efforts of leaders to address these challenges, or the elections could exacerbate cleavages in ways that might invite a return to the immobilizing politics of consensus. Professor Brumberg will map out these different scenarios, particularly with reference to the results of the September 15 presidential elections. His will then discuss the implications of these elections for the October 6, parliamentary elections, whose results should be just surfacing on the day of this lecture.

 

SPEAKER BIO

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Daniel Brumberg is an Associate Professor of Government at Georgetown University, where he also serves as the Director of Democracy and Governance Studies MA Program. He is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Arab Center in Washington, DC and at the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). From 2008 through 2015 he also served as a Special Adviser at the United States Institute of Peace. In addition to his position at Georgetown, he has served as Visiting Professor of Kuwait-Gulf Studies at Sciences Po in Paris and continues to serve as a faculty member for the St.Martin-Georgetown University Program in Public Policy in Buenos Aires. Prior to coming to Georgetown University he was a Visiting Professor in the Department of Political Science at Emory University, a Visiting Fellow in the Middle East Program in the Jimmy Carter Center, and a Lecturer at the University of Chicago's Social Science Masters Program. Brumberg has published articles on political, social and economic change in the Middle East and wider Muslim World. His articles have appeared in leading print and on-line journals including The Journal of Democracyforeignpolicy.com and theatlantic.com. His books include Reinventing Khomeini: The Struggle for Reform in Iran, (University of Chicago Press) and Conflict, Identity, and Reform in the Muslim World, Challenges for US Engagement (USIP Press), co-edited with Dinah Shehata, and most recently, Power and Political Change in Iran co-edited with Farideh Farhi and published by Indiana University Press. Brumberg has served as a consultant to the US Department of State and the United States Agency for International Development focusing on human rights, security sector reform, and governance issues in the Arab world. He has lived or conducted field research in France, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel, Kuwait, and Indonesia. He speaks French and Arabic.

Daniel Brumberg Associate Professor of Government Georgetown University
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ABSTRACT

While the phenomenon of Egyptians leaving their homeland in search for work abroad has been ongoing for decades, a new trend has emerged since 2011, namely thousands have expatriated for political reasons. Some have left based on a general sense that the political climate has become hazardous for them, while others left because of specific fears due to court convictions, lawsuits, loss of employment, attacks in the media, or direct physical threats related to their political, journalistic, or civil society activities. In contrast to waves of politically motivated Egyptian migration into exile in the 1950s–1970s, migrants now have highly diverse identities, motives, destinations, and experiences in exile. While specific data are hard to locate, post-2011 Egyptian exiles generally appear to be greater in numbers, younger, and enjoying higher educational attainment than those of the past. One reason for this diversity is that far more groups are at serious risk in Egypt—Islamists as well as Christians, liberals as well as leftists, artists as well as businesspeople, prominent intellectuals as well as underground activists—compared to the past, when fewer groups faced political or social persecution at any given time.

SPEAKER BIO

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Amr Hamzawy is a Senior Research Scholar at CDDRL. He studied political science and developmental studies in Cairo, The Hague, and Berlin. He was previously an associate professor of political science at Cairo University and a professor of public policy at the American University in Cairo. Between 2016 and 2017, he served as a senior fellow in the Middle East program and the Democracy and Rule of Law program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC. 

His research and teaching interests as well as his academic publications focus on democratization processes in Egypt, tensions between freedom and repression in the Egyptian public space, political movements and civil society in Egypt, contemporary debates in Arab political thought, and human rights and governance in the Arab world. He is currently writing a new book on contemporary Egyptian politics, titled Egypt’s New Authoritarianism.

Hamzawy is a former member of the People’s Assembly after being elected in the first Parliamentary elections in Egypt after the January 25, 2011 revolution. He is also a former member of the Egyptian National Council for Human Rights. Hamzawy contributes a weekly op-ed to the Egyptian independent newspaper al-Shorouk and a weekly op-ed to the London based newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi.

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Amr Hamzawy is the director of the Carnegie Middle East Program. He studied political science and developmental studies in Cairo, The Hague, and Berlin. He was previously an associate professor of political science at Cairo University and a professor of public policy at the American University in Cairo.

His research and teaching interests as well as his academic publications focus on democratization processes in Egypt, tensions between freedom and repression in the Egyptian public space, political movements and civil society in Egypt, contemporary debates in Arab political thought, and human rights and governance in the Arab world. His new book On The Habits of Neoauthoritarianism – Politics in Egypt Between 2013 and 2019 appeared in Arabic in September 2019.

Hamzawy is a former member of the People’s Assembly after being elected in the first Parliamentary elections in Egypt after the January 25, 2011 revolution. He is also a former member of the Egyptian National Council for Human Rights. Hamzawy contributes a weekly op-ed to the Arab daily al-Quds al-Arabi.

 

Former Senior Research Scholar, CDDRL
Amr Hamzawy Senior Research Scholar Senior Research Scholar, CDDRL, Stanford University
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Under the title “Political Contestation and New Social Forces in the Middle East and North Africa,” the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy convened its 2018 annual conference on April 27 and 28 at Stanford University. Bringing together a diverse group of scholars from across several disciplines, the conference examined how dynamics of governance and modes of political participation have evolved in recent years in light of the resurgence of authoritarian trends throughout the region.

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Delivering the opening remarks of the conference, Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI) and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Larry Diamond reflected on the state of struggle for political change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. In a panel titled “Youth, Culture, and Expressions of Resistance,” FSI Scholar Ayca Alemdaroglu discussed strategies the Turkish state has pursued to preempt and contain dissent among youth. Adel Iskandar, Assistant Professor of Communications at Simon Fraser University, explained the various ways through which Egyptian youth employ social media to express political dissent. Yasemin Ipek, Assistant Professor of Global Affairs at George Mason University, unpacked the phenomenon of “entrepreneurial activism” among Lebanese youth and discussed its role in cross-sectarian mobilization.

The conference’s second panel, tilted “Situating Gender in the Law and the Economy,” featured Texas Christian University Historian Hanan Hammad, who assessed the achievements of the movement to fight gender-based violence in Egypt. Focusing on Gulf Cooperation Council states, Alessandra Gonzales, a Visiting Postdoctoral Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, analyzed the differences in female executive hiring practices across local and foreign firms. Stanford University Political Scientist and FSI Senior Fellow Lisa Blaydes presented findings from her research on women’s attitudes toward Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) in Egypt.

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Speaking on a panel titled “Social Movements and Visions for Change,” Free University of Berlin Scholar Dina El-Sharnouby discussed the 2011 revolutionary movement in Egypt and the visions for social change it espouses in the contemporary moment. Oklahoma City University Political Scientist Mohamed Daadaoui analyzed the Moroccan regime’s strategies of control following the Arab Uprisings and their impact on various opposition actors. Nora Doaiji, a PhD Student in History at Harvard University, shared findings from her research examining the challenges confronting the women’s movement in Saudi Arabia.

The fourth panel of the conference, “The Economy, the State, and New Social Actors,” featured George Washington University Associate Professor of Geography Mona Atia, who presented on territorial restructuring and the politics governing poverty in Morocco. Amr Adly, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the American University in Cairo, analyzed the relationship between the state and big business in Egypt after the 2013 military coup. Rice University Professor of Economics Mahmoud El-Gamal shared findings from his research on the economic determinants of democratization and de-democratization trends in Egypt during the past decade.

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The final panel focused on the international and regional dimensions of the struggle for political change in the Arab world, and featured Hicham Alaoui, a Research Fellow at Harvard University’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Georgetown University Political Scientist Daniel Brumberg, and Nancy Okail, the Executive Director of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.

The conference included a special session featuring former fellows of the American Middle Eastern Network at Stanford (AMENDS), an organization dedicated to promoting understanding around the Middle East, and supporting young leaders working to ignite concrete social and economic development in the region. AMENDS affiliates from five different MENA countries shared with the Stanford community their experiences in working toward social change in their respective countries.

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ARD 2018 Annual Conference participants.
Front row (from left): Hanan Hammad, Hamza Arsbi, Ayca Alemdaroglu, Mahdi Lafram, Lior Lapid.
Second to front row (from left): Dina El-Sharnouby, Daniel Brumberg, Radidja Nemar, Mona Atia.
Third to front row (from left): Hesham Sallam, Joel Beinin, Nora Doaiji, Hicham Alaoui, Mohamed Daadaoui, Salma Takky, Larry Diamond, Amr Adly, Sultan Al Amer, Heba Al-Hayek.
Back row (from left): Amr Gharbeia, Mahmoud El-Gamal, Amr Hamzawy
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ABSTRACT

In 2011, as the Arab uprisings spread across the Middle East, Jordan remained more stable than any of its neighbors. Despite strife at its borders and an influx of refugees connected to the Syrian civil war and the rise of ISIS, as well as its own version of the Arab Spring with protests and popular mobilization demanding change, Jordan managed to avoid political upheaval. How did the regime survive in the face of the pressures unleashed by the Arab uprisings? What does its resilience tell us about the prospects for reform or revolutionary change?

In “Jordan and the Arab Uprisings,” Curtis R. Ryan explains how Jordan weathered the turmoil of the Arab Spring. Crossing divides between state and society, government and opposition, Ryan analyzes key features of Jordanian politics, including Islamist and leftist opposition parties, youth movements, and other forms of activism, as well as struggles over elections, reform, and identity. He details regime survival strategies, laying out how the monarchy has held out the possibility of reform while also seeking to coopt and contain its opponents. Ryan demonstrates how domestic politics were affected by both regional unrest and international support for the regime, and how regime survival and security concerns trumped hopes for greater change. While the Arab Spring may be over, Ryan shows that political activism in Jordan is not, and that struggles for reform and change will continue. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and interviews with a vast range of people, from grassroots activists to King Abdullah II, “Jordan and the Arab Uprisings” is a definitive analysis of Jordanian politics before, during, and beyond the Arab uprisings.

 

SPEAKER BIO

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Curtis Ryan joined the Department of Government and Justice Studies at Appalachian State University in 2002. He received his B.A. in history and political science from Drew University, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. His areas of interest and expertise include international relations and foreign policy; international and regional security; comparative politics; Middle East politics; and inter-Arab relations and alliance politics. Ryan served as a Fulbright Scholar (1992–93) at the University of Jordan’s Center for Strategic Studies and was twice named a Peace Scholar by the United States Institute of Peace. In addition to his contributions to the Middle East Report, Ryan’s articles on Middle East politics have been published in the Middle East Journal, The British Journal of Middle East Studies, Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism, World Politics Review, Middle East Insight, Arab Studies Quarterly and many others.He is the author of Jordan in Transition: From Hussein to Abdullah (Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2002) and Inter-Arab Alliances: Regime Security and Jordanian Foreign Policy (University Press of Florida, 2009).

William J. Perry Conference Room,
Encina Hall, 2nd Floor, 616 Serra St,
Stanford, CA 94305

Curtis Ryan Professor of Political Science Appalachian State University
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This event is co-sponsored with The Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies.

ABSTRACT

Islamist movements have dominated popular discussions of opposition and change within Arab politics for the past three decades. Uniquely positioned during the Arab Spring, some have since directly governed, while others have been co-opted or absorbed into existing political structures. Yet outside Tunisia, no Islamist group has been able to deliver upon its promise of political transformation. The reality is that Islamism is not the solution to the problem of authoritarian rule in the Arab world. It is burdened with ideological contradictions, fixated upon principles of doctrinal purity, and beholden to political strategies that have backfired. Islamists have therefore become disconnected from the youth generation that will mobilize the next wave of regional change. The question remains as to how the popular need for religiosity and religious meaning will be taken up by political actors.

 

SPEAKER BIO

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Hicham Alaoui is a Research Associate at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University, specializing in issues of comparative democratization. He is completing his D.Phil. at the University of Oxford, where he focuses upon the relationship between religion and politics in the contemporary Middle East. Through his research foundation, he is overseeing two new research projects on the political economy of educational reform and the politics of governance and local development in the Arab world. He was previously a board member of various research and advocacy organizations, such as the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University and the MENA Advisory Committee for Human Rights Watch. He has also served with the Carter Center and UN for overseas elections monitoring and peacekeeping missions. He has published in academic journals such as Politique Internationale, Le Debat, Pouvoirs, Le Monde Diplomatique, and Journal of Democracy. He has also contributed to periodicals such as The New York Times, Le Monde, La Nouvelle Observateur, El Pais, and Al-Quds. He holds degrees from Princeton and Stanford Universities. His memoir, Journal d'un Prince Banni, was published in 2014 by Éditions Grasset, and has since been translated into several languages.

 

Philippines Conference Room 
Encina Hall, 3rd Floor 
616 Serra Street, Stanford, CA 94305

Hicham Alaoui Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
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This event is co-sponsored with The Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies.

 

ABSTRACT

This talk expounds a book project to study various questions related to the long-standing socioeconomic inequality across non-Muslims and Muslims in the Middle East. The book draws on novel primary data sources including medieval papyri, historical population censuses, and tax registers, in order to document the socioeconomic advantage of non-Muslim minorities in the region and how it evolved over time and varied across groups and territories. It then examines how inter-religion socioeconomic inequality was impacted by European influence and state-led development since 1800. Finally, it explores the historical roots of this inequality and the role of Islamic taxation in its emergence, and how the Islamic tax system itself evolved in response to it. Overall, the planned manuscript is part of a larger project that attempts to write a new evidence-based economic history of the region that draws on the digitization of various primary unexplored data sources at local and European archives, and that combines the quantitative approaches of the social sciences with the historical literature. In doing so, it builds on earlier work of pioneering economic historians of the region, while attempting to go beyond the conceptual and methodological divisions that separate economic historians from historians as well as those that separate nationalist from colonial narratives.

SPEAKER BIO

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Mohamed Saleh is an Assistant Professor at Toulouse School of Economics and Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, France. In 2017-2018, he is a Visiting Assistant Professor at the Department of Economics, Stanford University. His research interests are in economic history, empirical political economy, and development economics, with a focus on the economic history of the Middle East, and particularly Egypt. His research agenda focuses on understanding the historical origins of the socioeconomic differences between religious groups, the effects of state industrialization and public mass education on these differences, and the historical role of the Islamic tax system in the formation of religious groups. Another area of his research examines the long-term evolution of the institutions of labor coercion and land tenure in the Middle East. He approaches these questions using novel micro data sources constructed from archival and secondary data sources.

William J. Perry Conference Room,
Encina Hall (Central), 2nd Floor, 616 Serra St,
Stanford, CA 94305

Mohamed Saleh Assistant Professor Toulouse School of Economics
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This event is co-sponsored with The Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies.

ABSTRACT

The Arab Barometer is the first and largest project of its kind that gives voice to the opinions and concerns of ordinary citizens across the Middle East and North Africa. Beginning in 2006, it has conducted rigorous and representative public opinion surveys in 15 countries over four waves. To date, across these waves, more than 45,000 face-to-face interviews have been conducted in the respondent’s place of residence. Among the topics explored are attitudes and values pertaining to politics, economics, religion, democracy, quality of governance, women’s rights, and identity. Arab Barometer data, which are publicly accessible through the Barometer’s website, are a valuable resource for research that seeks not only to describe but also to explain public attitudes on important issues affecting the MENA region. The Arab Barometer is directed by a steering committee composed of team leaders from four institutions in the Arab world and researchers at Princeton University and the University of Michigan. In this workshop, Amaney Jamal, Mark Tessler and Michael Robbins will present results from the fourth wave of data and an overview of the upcoming fifth wave.

 

SPEAKERS BIO

Amaney A. Jamal is the Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Politics at Princeton University and director of the Mamdouha S. Bobst Center for Peace and Justice. Jamal also directs the Workshop on Arab Political Development. She currently is President of the Association of Middle East Women’s Studies (AMEWS). The focus of her current research is democratization and the politics of civic engagement in the Arab world. Her interests also include the study of Muslim and Arab Americans and the pathways that structure their patterns of civic engagement in the United States. Jamal’s books include: Barriers to Democracy(2007), which explores the role of civic associations in promoting democratic effects in the Arab world (winner of the 2008 APSA Best Book Award in comparative democratization).

Mark Tessler is Samuel J. Eldersveld Collegiate Professor of Politics at the University of Michigan, where he also previously served as Vice-Provost for International Affairs. He has conducted research in Tunisia, Israel, Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, and Palestine and hasdirected or co-directed social science training and capacity-building programs in nine Arab countries. Tessler is also co-founder and a past president of the American Institution for Maghrib Studies. Among the fifteen books he has authored or coauthored are Public Opinion in the Middle East: Survey Research and the Political Orientations of Ordinary Citizens (2011); and Islam and Politics in the Middle East: Explaining the Views of Ordinary Citizens (2015). His current research examines the way that ordinary citizens in the MENA region think about women’s rights and status and the degree to which their attitudes are, or are not, shaped by religious attachments and understandings.

Michael Robbins is Director of the Arab Barometer. He has led or overseen more than 50 surveys in international contexts and is a leading expert in survey methods to prevent data fabrication. His work on Arab public opinion, political Islam and political parties has been published inComparative Political Studies, the Journal of Conflict Resolution and the Journal of Democracy. He received the American Political Science Association Aaron Wildavsky Award for the Best Dissertation in the field of Religion and Politics. Previously, he has served as a research fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and aresearch associate at the Pew Research Center.


Following this event, Stanford student presentations will take place in the Reuben Hills Conference Room (2nd Floor Encina East Wing, E207) from 1:30pm to 2:30pm.

Christiana Parreira 
Title: Modernization and the Politics of Contemporary Kinship in the Middle East 
Comments: Amaney Jamal

Scott Williamson 
Title: Electoral Legitimacy and Compliance in Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from the Arab World 
Comments: Michael Robbins

Salma Mousa 
Title: The Casual Effect of Sectarian Violence: Terrorism, Political Preferences, and Religiosity in Iraq 
Comments: Mark Tessler

 

William J. Perry Conference Room,
Encina Hall (Central), 2nd Floor, 616 Serra St,
Stanford, CA 94305

Amaney A. Jamal Professor of Politics Princeton University
Mark Tessler Professor of Politics University of Michigan
Michael Robbins Director of the Arab Barometer Arab Barometer
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Abstract: This talk will explore the historical roots of the modern concept of identity, and how it plays out in contemporary nationalism, Islamism, populism, and liberal multiculturalism.  It will be based on my forthcoming book Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment, to be published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux in September 2018.

Speaker bio: Francis Fukuyama is Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at FSI and Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. He has worked previously at the State Dept., the Rand Corporation, and taught at George Mason University and Johns Hopkins SAIS before coming to Stanford in 2010.
 
Frank Fukuyama CDDRL, Stanford University
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Graduate School of Business 655 Knight Way Stanford, CA 94305
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Associate Professor of Political Economy, GSB
Associate Professor, by courtesy, of Economics and of Political Science
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Along with being a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Saumitra Jha is an associate professor of political economy at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, and convenes the Stanford Conflict and Polarization Lab. 

Jha’s research has been published in leading journals in economics and political science, including Econometrica, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the American Political Science Review and the Journal of Development Economics, and he serves on a number of editorial boards. His research on ethnic tolerance has been recognized with the Michael Wallerstein Award for best published article in Political Economy from the American Political Science Association in 2014 and his co-authored research on heroes with the Oliver Williamson Award for best paper by the Society for Institutional and Organizational Economics in 2020. Jha was honored to receive the Teacher of the Year Award, voted by the students of the Stanford MSx Program in 2020.

Saum holds a BA from Williams College, master’s degrees in economics and mathematics from the University of Cambridge, and a PhD in economics from Stanford University. Prior to rejoining Stanford as a faculty member, he was an Academy Scholar at Harvard University. He has been a fellow of the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance and the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics at Princeton University, and at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford. Jha has consulted on economic and political risk issues for the United Nations/WTO, the World Bank, government agencies, and for private firms.

 

Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Dan C. Chung Faculty Scholar at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
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ABSTRACT

In this talk, Karine Walther discusses her new book Sacred Interests: The United States and the Islamic World, 1821-1921. Throughout the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, as Americans increasingly came into contact with the Islamic world, U.S. diplomatic, cultural, political, and religious beliefs about Islam began to shape their responses to world events. In Sacred Interests, Karine V. Walther excavates the deep history of American Islamophobia, showing how negative perceptions of Islam and Muslims shaped U.S. foreign relations from the Early Republic to the end of World War I.

 

SPEAKER BIO

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Karine Walther is an Associate Professor of History at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service in Qatar. She holds a PhD in history from Columbia University, a Maîtrise and Licence in Sociology from the University of Paris VIII and a BA in American Studies from the University of Texas, Austin. Her book, Sacred Interests: The United States and the Islamic World, 1821-1921 was published by the University of North Carolina Press in August of 2015.  Her forthcoming book, tentatively titled Spreading the Faith: American Missionaries, ARAMCO and the Birth of the US-Saudi Special Relationship, 1889-1955 will be published by UNC Press in 2018. 

Karine Walther Associate Professor of History Georgetown University, School of Foreign Service, Qatar
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