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In the wake of the recent historic meeting of the leaders of China and Taiwan, the Stanford News Service asked two of the university's Asia experts about the aftermath of that meeting and its possible effects on political relations between the two countries, the military situation and Taiwan's Jan. 16 presidential and parliamentary elections.

The first presidential meeting between the leaders of the communist mainland and the democratic island, split by civil war in 1949, was held in early November on neutral territory in Singapore.

Kharis Templeman is the Taiwan Democracy program manager at Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. He recently wrote about why Taiwan's defense spending has fallen as China's has risen. Thomas Fingar is a distinguished fellow at Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. He served as the chairman of the National Intelligence Council and in other key positions in Washington. 

Do you anticipate any lasting effects from the face-to-face meeting of Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou?

Thomas Fingar: At a minimum, the meeting appears intended by both sides to validate and lock in the much-improved cross-Taiwan Strait relationship that has evolved over the past several years.

Kharis Templeman: I do think the Ma-Xi meeting itself will have one lasting legacy: it has created a precedent for treating the directly elected president of the Republic of China as an equal and as the rightful representative of Taiwanese interests in cross-strait relations. From now on, leaders in Beijing are going to have a hard time arguing that a non-KMT (the Kuomintang, Taiwan's governing party,) president is illegitimate, as they did during the [former Taiwanese president] Chen Shui-Bian era, or to continue to insist on referring to Taiwan’s leaders as provincial-level officials. So, the next president will come into office somewhat strengthened by that precedent.   

Will the meeting have any effect on the January elections in Taiwan?

Templeman: I don’t think it will make much, if any, difference. Taiwanese public opinion is deeply divided about Ma Ying-Jeou’s meeting with Xi. Ma himself remains quite unpopular, the economy is barely growing, and the KMT presidential candidate remains at least 20 points behind in the polls. There’s little indication that this meeting has shaken up what has been a large and steady lead for DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-Wen, and I would be shocked if she didn’t win a comfortable victory in January.

Fingar: Probably not. Beijing seems to have learned that its past attempts to influence elections on Taiwan have been ineffectual or counterproductive, and the meeting is unlikely to change minds or votes on the island. 

How might the elections affect military spending on either sides, or China's aggressive island-building for military bases?

Fingar: The meeting will not have any effect on military spending or the building of artificial islands in the South China Sea, but Beijing may have hoped that agreeing to meet with Ma to demonstrate how "good" the relationship is might persuade Washington not to approve another round of arms sales to Taiwan.  Regardless of who wins the election on Taiwan, the next administration is likely to seek another round of U.S. arms sales in order to prove that it has the support of the United States.

Templeman: The meeting will have no impact on the security balance in the region. Ma reportedly raised the issue of PRC (People's Republic of China) missiles within easy range of Taiwan, but Xi claimed, implausibly, that they were not targeted at Taiwan, and that was the end of it. The broader trends are unchanged: the PRC’s military budget is growing annually by double-digit rates while Taiwan’s remains essentially flat. The consequence is that the PRC’s capacity to take coercive measures against Taiwan continues to expand, even as cross-strait cooperation has been improved and institutionalized.

Dan Stober is at the Stanford News Service.

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Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Singapore on Nov. 7, 2015. | Flickr/Office of the President Republic of China (Taiwan)
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Abstract:

The Syrian crisis continues to grind on without a viable settlement to the conflict in sight. The problems spurred by the crisis, from refugees to extremist groups, have become a tangible concern for the West, not just Middle Eastern countries. Meanwhile, from Russia to Iran to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar, several countries have turned Syria into a political and military playground. The lack of strategy to end the conflict on part of the USA, Europe, and the United Nations has paved the way for those state and non-state actors to increase the scope of their actions in Syria. The continuation of this dynamic can only mean further instability across the Middle East and beyond.

This talk links the international relations, security, and social dimensions of the Syrian conflict to address how and why the crisis has reached the level it is at today, with a focus on the role of external stakeholders as well as of rising extremist groups. It will reflect on how a settlement to the conflict might be reached and what the implications of a settlement would be for the Middle East.


Bio:

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Lina Khatib is a Senior Research Associate with the Arab Reform Initiative. She was formerly the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut and before that a co-founder of the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. Her research focuses on the international relations of the Middle East, Islamist groups, and foreign policy. She has written extensively on Syria over the past two years, especially on armed groups like the Islamic State, and has also published seven books including Taking to the Streets: The Transformation of Arab Activism, an edited collection (with Ellen Lust; Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014) based on work produced by CDDRL’s Program on Arab Reform and Democracy. She is also a Research Associate at SOAS, University of London.

 


This event is sponsored by CDDRL's Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.

 

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CISAC Central Conference Room
Encina Hall, 2nd Floor
616 Serra St
Stanford, CA 94305

Lina Khatib Arab Reform Initiative
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Due to overwhelming demand, the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law has closed registration for this event. If you are still interested in attending this talk, please register on our wait list available here. 

 

Join us for a moderated conversation with Jeremy Weinstein, who recently returned to Stanford after serving as Deputy to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.

 

Speaker Bio

weinstein1 Jeremy Weinstein
Jeremy M. Weinstein is a Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. He is also a non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C.

His research focuses on civil wars and political violence; ethnic politics and the political economy of development; and democracy, accountability, and political change. He is the author of Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence (Cambridge University Press), which received the William Riker Prize for the best book on political economy. He is also the co-author of Coethnicity: Diversity and the Dilemmas of Collective Action (Russell Sage Foundation), which received the Gregory Luebbert Award for the best book in comparative politics. He has published articles in the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Annual Review of Political Science, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Journal of Democracy, World Policy Journal, and the SAIS Review.

Weinstein received the International Studies Association’s Karl Deutsch Award in 2013. The award is given to a scholar younger than 40 or within 10 years of earning a Ph.D. who has made the most significant contribution to the study of international relations. He also received the Dean’s Award for Distinguished Teaching at Stanford in 2007.

He has also worked at the highest levels of government on major foreign policy and national security challenges, engaging in both global diplomacy and national policy-making. Between 2013 and 2015, Weinstein served as the Deputy to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and before that as the Chief of Staff at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. As Deputy, Weinstein was a standing member of the National Security Council Deputies’ Committee – the sub-cabinet policy committee with primary responsibility for advising the National Security Council, the Cabinet, and the President on the full range of foreign policy issues, including global counterterrorism, nonproliferation, U.S. policy in the Middle East, the strategic rebalance to Asia, cyber threats, among a wide variety of other issues.

During President Obama’s first term, he served as Director for Development and Democracy on the National Security Council staff at the White House between 2009 and 2011. In this capacity, he played a key role in the National Security Council’s work on global development, democracy and human rights, and anti-corruption, with a global portfolio. Before joining the White House staff, Weinstein served as an advisor to the Obama campaign and, during the transition, as a member of the National Security Policy Working Group and the Foreign Assistance Agency Review Team.

Weinstein obtained a BA with high honors from Swarthmore College, and an MA and PhD in political economy and government from Harvard University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and serves on a number of non-profit boards and advisory groups.

 

 

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In this talk, Wellington Shih will provide a historical and legal overview of the Republic of China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. He will also review the latest developments in the ongoing dispute between the People’s Republic of China, the ROC on Taiwan, and other claimants in the region, including the Philippines, and discuss the South China Sea Peace Initiative proposed by the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou. 

The Possible Approaches for Defusing Tensions in the South China Sea: A Taiwanese Perspective
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Visiting scholar Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan)
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On Tuesday, June 2, 2015, CDDRL's Taiwan Democracy Project welcomed President Ma Ying-jeou of the Republic of China (Taiwan) as he addressed a crowd of over 200 in a talk commemorating the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and the long history of the U.S.-R.O.C. relationship. The speech was accompanied by a panel Q&A discussion with Lanhee J. Chen, former chief policy advisor to U.S. Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney; Karl Eikenberry, former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan; and Thomas Fingar, former chairman of the National Intelligence Council. The event was moderated by William J. Perry, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and former U.S. Secretary of Defense. 

This special event was co-sponsored by CDDRL's Taiwan Democracy Project; the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, San Francisco; and the Office of the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan).
 

Click here to view photos from the event via our Facebook Album: http://on.fb.me/1QxpzQp


See below for press coverage of the event:

June 3, 2015

"Taiwan President Ma Ying-Jeou Holds Teleconference on 70th Anniversary of Second World War Victory"

Pacific News Center

"President Ma talks history in video conference"

Focus Taiwan News Channel

"Ma marks sacrifices of ROC armed forces during WWII"

Taiwan Today

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**LIVE WEBCAST WILL BE AVAILABLE HERE IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO THE EVENT.**

 

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On June 2, 2015, the Taiwan Democracy Project at Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) will host a special panel session featuring the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Ma Ying-jeou. President Ma will speak via live video feed to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and the long history of the U.S.-R.O.C. relationship. Following his prepared remarks, the president will engage in a question-and-answer session with the audience and a distinguished panel of leading Stanford faculty and fellows, chaired and moderated by the former Secretary of Defense of the United States, William J. Perry.

 

About the Speaker

Ma Ying-jeou has served as the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan) since May 2008. As president, Ma Ying-jeou has worked to address the repercussions of the global financial crisis, stepping up efforts to bring about a more diversified industrial structure and to jump-start new engines for economic growth in Taiwan. President Ma has also attached great importance to promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction, which has helped Taiwan’s energy efficiency to exceed two percent. In addition, his administration worked to craft a response to regional economic integration, successfully negotiating the landmark Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with the People's Republic of China in 2010. President Ma's creative diplomacy has brought a significant improvement in cross-Strait relations while putting an end to a long and vituperative standoff between the two sides in the diplomatic sphere.

 

About the Panelists

William J. Perry is the Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor (emeritus) and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and the Hoover Institution, and serves as the director of the Preventive Defense Project at Stanford University. He was the Secretary of Defense for the United States from 1994-1997.

 

Lanhee J. Chen is the David and Diane Steffy Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution, as well as Lecturer in Public Policy and Law at Stanford University. He served as the chief policy adviser to 2012 U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

 

Karl Eikenberry is the William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University.  He served as the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan and is a Lieutenant General, Retired, U.S. Army.

 

Thomas Fingar is the Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council from 2005-2008.

 

 

Event Details

The live panel will take place in the Bechtel Conference Room of the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University, at 616 Serra Street, from 5:45-7:00pm on June 2, 2015. An informal reception in the lobby of Encina Hall will follow.

 

This event is co-sponsored with the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, San Francisco and the Office of the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan). It is free and open to the public. RSVP is required.

 

 

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Lanhee J. Chen
Thomas Fingar
William J. Perry
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As part of the Arab Reform and Democracy Program's speaker series, George Mason University scholar Noura Erakat examined the political and legal contexts for the 2014 Gaza war. In July and August of 2014, hostilities in the Gaza Strip left 2,131 Palestinians and 71 Israelis dead, including 501 Palestinian children and one Israeli child. Of Gaza’s 1.8 million residents, 475,000 are living in temporary shelters or with other families because their homes have been severely damaged. The extent of destruction has raised questions around culpability for war crimes on all sides of the conflict.

 

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As part of the Arab Reform and Democracy Program's speaker series, University of Richmond Political Scientist Sheila Carapico discussed findings from her ground-breaking study Political Aid and Arab Activism: Democracy Promotion, Justice, and Representation (Cambridge University Press, 2013) which explores two decades’ worth of projects sponsored by American, European, and other transnational agencies in four key sub-fields: the rule of law, electoral design and monitoring, female empowerment, and civil society. European and US-based scholars and practitioners have debated the purposes and sometimes the (limited) macro-effects of programs designed to promote transitions from authoritarianism to democracy in Middle East countries. Yet this discussion often lacks analysis of on-the-ground experiences or ignores the cumulative wisdom of local counterparts and intermediaries. Carapico discussed controversies and contradictions surrounding projects in Egypt, Palestine, and Iraq (the three main cases) and Jordan, Morocco, Yemen, Algeria, Tunisia, and Lebanon (where democracy brokers also work) to help explain why so many feminists and other advocates for justice, free elections, and civic agency concluded that foreign funding is inherently political and paradoxical.

 

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