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Stanford scholar comments on Egypt's interrupted revolution
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In less than a week, Egypt has witnessed a reversal of many of the gains it made during the course of the 16-month revolutionary period. The interim military body guiding the transition period since Hosni Mubarak's ouster has consolidated its power by dissolving the Islamist-led parliament, introducing a new charter stripping presidential powers, and hand-picking an assembly to draft a new constitution.
In the midst of this counter-coup by Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), presidential run-off elections took place June 16 and 17. The Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammad Mursi emerged as the winner against Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's former prime minister, capturing 51.7% of the vote.
A former academic who earned a doctorate in engineering from the University of Southern California, Mursi is a relative newcomer to the Egyptian political scene having served in parliament from 2000-2005. Described as a behind-the-scenes operator, Mursi rose to lead the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party in 2011 positioning himself as a presidential contender. While little is known about Egypt's first democratically elected president, many claim that Mursi was elected less for his personal politics than for his affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Lina Khatib, head of the Arab Reform and Democracy Program at FSI's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, weighs in on the upheaval in Egypt's revolution, the power of the presidency, and the steps the SCAF have taken to cement their rule.
Have the SCAF outsmarted the opposition in their recent grab for power?
Looking back at the 16 months since the start of the Egyptian revolution, it becomes clear that the SCAF were hedging their bets to come up with a political formula that would guarantee the continuation of their political and economic authority. For a while the Muslim Brotherhood was almost in bed with the SCAF, but the equation quickly changed after the parliamentary elections. As the Brotherhood arose as a potentially serious challenger to the SCAF, the military needed an effective strategy to undermine its rising power.
In what way was the Muslim Brotherhood posing a challenge to the SCAF?
The (now-dissolved) parliament was dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, which claimed 46% of the seats. With Mohammad Mursi the president-elect, the Muslim Brotherhood would have presided over two key state institutions - the legislative and executive branches. That would have been too much for the SCAF to bear, particularly as they started perceiving the Brotherhood as a political competitor. Based on this, the SCAF could safely calculate that fresh parliamentary elections — under a revised electoral system — would most likely not lead to a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated parliament.
With no constitution in place how can the presidential powers and limits be defined?
The stalled process of putting together a Constitutional Assembly means that Mohammad Mursi assumes this role without knowing the full authorities of the position. The SCAF have been managing the membership of the Constitutional Assembly and will likely have a significant input into the content of the constitution itself. The sequencing of having a president in place before a constitution is drafted presents the military with the opportunity to design the constitution according to who wins the presidential race. If Ahmed Shafiq had won, it is likely that the new constitution would have given him more privileges than Mursi.
With Mursi the new president of Egypt, does this signal a victory for the Muslim Brotherhood?
The Muslim Brotherhood has been shortsighted in the way it has performed since the start of the Egyptian revolution. Its keenness on ascending to political power often led it to engage in compromises with the SCAF that have now backfired. This also served to lessen its support among the Egyptian people, as well as among its political allies. Although the Brotherhood pushed for the presidential elections to go ahead because it was convinced that Mursi would win, this victory can be viewed as only a partial one as the SCAF are in control of most state institutions.
Have recent events reversed the gains made by the revolution?
The real victory for Mursi would be if he is able to put in place checks and balances on the power of the SCAF, secure the independence of the judiciary, guarantee the rights of minorities, and establish an accountable civil state in Egypt that involves the country’s multiple stakeholders. However, the SCAF have so far blocked the path towards achieving all of those goals, and in the process are attempting to silence the voices of the opposition that were initially empowered by the revolution.
How can reformers re-assert themselves in the current political climate?
Egyptian reformists need a long-term strategy. A key part of this strategy is having a viable leadership and advocacy structure that can stand up to the authority of the SCAF. Even though the SCAF have announced that they would hand over power to the incumbent president, their behavior indicates that they are keen on maintaining their authority behind the scenes, regardless of who sits in the presidential seat.
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Assessing the Quality of Governance in China (Sonoma)
In Western scholarship, governance is equated with democracy, and its institutional attributes of transparency and accountability. The apparent effectiveness of the Chinese state is thus an enigma. Are the Chinese able to control corruption better than in other developing countries? How responsive is the state to the demands and concerns of citizens? In what ways do the quality of state institutions vary across governmental levels, policy areas, and regions?
The purpose of the workshops is to bring together a group of Chinese and Western academics and experts who have done empirical research on how Chinese government works to address these and other questions on governance in China.
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Francis Fukuyama
Encina Hall, C148
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305
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Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy
Research Affiliate at The Europe Center
Professor by Courtesy, Department of Political Science
Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). He is also Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and a professor (by courtesy) of Political Science.
Dr. Fukuyama has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man, has appeared in over twenty foreign editions. His book In the Realm of the Last Man: A Memoir will be published in fall 2026.
Francis Fukuyama received his B.A. from Cornell University in classics, and his Ph.D. from Harvard in Political Science. He was a member of the Political Science Department of the RAND Corporation, and of the Policy Planning Staff of the US Department of State. From 1996-2000 he was Omer L. and Nancy Hirst Professor of Public Policy at the School of Public Policy at George Mason University, and from 2001-2010 he was Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. He served as a member of the President’s Council on Bioethics from 2001-2004. He is editor-in-chief of American Purpose, an online journal.
Dr. Fukuyama holds honorary doctorates from Connecticut College, Doane College, Doshisha University (Japan), Kansai University (Japan), Aarhus University (Denmark), the Pardee Rand Graduate School, and Adam Mickiewicz University (Poland). He is a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Rand Corporation, the Board of Trustees of Freedom House, and the Board of the Volcker Alliance. He is a fellow of the National Academy for Public Administration, a member of the American Political Science Association, and of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is married to Laura Holmgren and has three children.
(October 2025)
Global Populisms
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Assessing the Quality of Governance in China (Beijing)
In Western scholarship, governance is equated with democracy, and its institutional attributes of transparency and accountability. The apparent effectiveness of the Chinese state is thus an enigma. Are the Chinese able to control corruption better than in other developing countries? How responsive is the state to the demands and concerns of citizens? In what ways do the quality of state institutions vary across governmental levels, policy areas, and regions?
The purpose of these workshops is to bring together a group of Chinese and Western academics and experts who have done empirical research on how Chinese government works to address these and other questions on governance in China.
Stanford Center at Peking University
Francis Fukuyama
Encina Hall, C148
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305
0
f.fukuyama@stanford.edu
Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy
Research Affiliate at The Europe Center
Professor by Courtesy, Department of Political Science
Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). He is also Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and a professor (by courtesy) of Political Science.
Dr. Fukuyama has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man, has appeared in over twenty foreign editions. His book In the Realm of the Last Man: A Memoir will be published in fall 2026.
Francis Fukuyama received his B.A. from Cornell University in classics, and his Ph.D. from Harvard in Political Science. He was a member of the Political Science Department of the RAND Corporation, and of the Policy Planning Staff of the US Department of State. From 1996-2000 he was Omer L. and Nancy Hirst Professor of Public Policy at the School of Public Policy at George Mason University, and from 2001-2010 he was Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. He served as a member of the President’s Council on Bioethics from 2001-2004. He is editor-in-chief of American Purpose, an online journal.
Dr. Fukuyama holds honorary doctorates from Connecticut College, Doane College, Doshisha University (Japan), Kansai University (Japan), Aarhus University (Denmark), the Pardee Rand Graduate School, and Adam Mickiewicz University (Poland). He is a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Rand Corporation, the Board of Trustees of Freedom House, and the Board of the Volcker Alliance. He is a fellow of the National Academy for Public Administration, a member of the American Political Science Association, and of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is married to Laura Holmgren and has three children.
(October 2025)
Global Populisms
A new project examining the global surge in populist movements and what it means for established democratic rules and institutions.
Read More
CV
Document
francis_fukuyama_cv_april_2024.pdf
(223.42 KB)
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Former Summer Fellow shares insights on the Egyptian revolution and the stalled transition
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On May 7, the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) hosted Egyptian activist Ahmed Salah who spoke about the series of events that led up to the Egyptian revolution and the current struggles the country faces in realizing its revolutionary goals. Salah, an alumni of the 2011 Draper Hills Summer Fellowship at CDDRL, has been at the forefront of the revolutionary movement in Egypt. He has been involved in the launch of opposition groups and movements since 2005, including the April 6 Youth Movement and Kifaya (Enough!), both of which played roles in organizing and mobilizing the forces behind the revolution.
Salah returned to Stanford as part of a larger speaking tour across the U.S., to raise awareness and support for the democratic development of Egypt. With the military undermining the goals of the revolution, the constitution-writing process stalled, and a rush towards presidential elections, Salah emphasized the critical moment Egypt faces in its transition towards democracy.
Forced into exiled for his activism, Salah has sought temporary refuge in the U.S. and is dedicating his time to building awareness and advocacy for his cause through the Coalition of the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution in Washington D.C. and beyond.
Addressing the CDDRL seminar, Salah recalled the defining moments of the January revolution, “Getting into Tahrir in the morning, the stench of tear gas was so strong, all these burning vehicles and buildings all around - blood - pools of blood in different locations, and protestors were coming in, again.”
Salah was instrumental in co-devising and implementing the plan leading up to the revolution and has been subject to arrest, incarceration, and abuse as a result of his actions. He described being beaten and his nose broken when a gang of thugs surrounded him in Tahrir Square, and another incident when he was targeted by a sniper firing into a crowd of protestors. He escaped with his life but was not as lucky as thousands of other activists.
As the country faces a crucial period of political transition with presidential elections approaching, Salah emphasized the fact that candidates have not had enough time to campaign, leaving voters with an incomplete picture of the competing platforms. He cited examples of direct vote rigging and manipulation in the parliamentary elections and stressed the importance of ensuring a transparent process when electing Egypt's first post-revolutionary president. While Salah recognizes the shortcomings of the transition period, he endeavors to ensure that the goals of the revolution and the activists who made great sacrifices are fully realized in the long-run.
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Democratic Careening: Accountability Dynamics Across Asia
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International Cooperation and Coordination: The European Challenge to Combating and Preventing Human Trafficking
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Some twelve years after the unveiling of the UN Anti-Trafficking Protocol in 2000, most European countries have sound anti-trafficking legislation. Worldwide, while many countries amend their legislation and policies, they follow practice developed, applied and tested in Western Europe. Some of these practices consider national and international coordination and cooperation for an effective anti-trafficking policy. However, notwithstanding the progress European countries have made, within Europe, governments have not been able to coordinate and develop a comprehensive and multi-pronged approach to render criminal networks of human trafficking inoperative. Why? The authors suggest that different definitions of human trafficking and variations in criminal law, the existing national security and state sovereignty framework, as well as lack of training and proactive investigation combine to facilitate corruption and limit successful prosecutions, convictions and international cooperation.
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Stanford conference to analyze democratic attitudes and values in Asia
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On May 25-26, the Center on Democracy, Development and Rule of Law (CDDRL) will hold its seventh annual Taiwan Democracy Project conference on, "How the Public Views Democracy and its Competitors in East Asia: Taiwan in Comparative Perspective” at Stanford University. Held in partnership with the Program for East Asia Democratic Studies and the Institute for the Advanced Studies for Humanities and Social Sciences at National Taiwan University, the conference will bring together leading social scientists from Taiwan and other Asian countries to present and discuss papers analyzing the third wave of data from the Asian Barometer Survey.
The Asian Barometer Survey is a cross-national comparative survey that has been implemented in 17 Asian countries. Collecting micro-level data under a common research framework and methodology, the survey provides insights into commonly held attitudes and values towards politics, power, reform, and democracy in Asia. Over the course of the two-day period, experts in comparative politics and public opinion will present papers analyzing the data from the Asian Barometer in greater detail to examine the challenges of democratic consolidation in East Asia.
According to CDDRL Director Larry Diamond, “The goal of the conference is to examine the levels, trends, and causal determinants of support for democracy in Taiwan and throughout East Asia. The papers presented at this forum will be published in an edited volume to document democratic attitudes and values in Asia."
Paper presenters include; Chong-min Park, professor of public administration at Korea University and director of Survey Research Center of Institute of Governmental Studies, who will discuss a region-wide comparison of the quality of governance and its implications for democratic legitimacy; Feng-Yu Lee, assistant professor in the department of political science at National Taiwan University who will present a paper alongside Chinen Wu, associate research fellow at the Institute of Political Science at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, about the comparative analysis of the wealth divide and the issue of political inclusion; and Doh Shin, the Jack W. Peltason Scholar-in-Residence at the Center for the Study of Democracy in the University of California-Irvine and founder of the Korea Barometer Surveys, who will share a comparative analysis of cultural sources of diffuse regime support.
All sessions will be held in the Bechtel Conference Center in Encina Hall and are free and open to the public. To view the agenda and RSVP to the conference, please click here.
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