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The interactions between bureaucratic agencies and political actors shape governance outcomes, yet scholars disagree about how bureaucratic autonomy relates to government quality. Some claim that enhancing autonomy improves quality, whereas others maintain the opposite. An influential article by Fukuyama (2013) in Governance suggests a curvilinear relationship, moderated by capacity. This article evaluates the theory empirically, focusing on within-country variation and two dimensions of autonomy: independence and discretion. Drawing on an original survey of over 3200 public sector workers in Brazil and administrative data on 325,000 public servants, we find evidence suggesting that the relationship between perceived autonomy and quality depends on the type of perceived autonomy and level of capacity. Public servants' perceptions of independence from political actors are associated with increased perceptions about governance quality in a linear fashion. For perceived discretion, we find initial evidence of a Goldilocks relationship: too little reduces perceptions of government quality but so does too much, especially in low-capacity areas. Our findings offer initial evidence that may qualify claims that limiting bureaucratic discretion while increasing political oversight improves governance; instead, context may be crucial.

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Governance
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Katherine Bersch
Francis Fukuyama
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Issue 1, January 2025, e12865
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Deliberative Democracy Lab
Nora Sulots
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The Stanford Deliberative Democracy Lab, housed within the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), in collaboration with Meta and the Behavioral Insights Team, has unveiled the results of the Meta Community Forum on Generative AI, based on the method of Deliberative Polling®. This groundbreaking event, part of a series of efforts by Meta to consult the public, engaged 1,545 participants in scientific samples from Brazil, Germany, Spain, and the United States. In each country, it offered the public’s views, both before and after deliberation, about future directions for the development of AI chatbots and how they should interact with humans.

“AI poses novel challenges, and these four national experiments revealed the public’s considered judgments about what it should — or should not — be able to use it for. National samples grappled with the pros and cons of each proposal and had their questions answered by panels of competing experts. This report shows what they concluded,” said James Fishkin, Senior Fellow at FSI and Director of the Stanford Deliberative Democracy Lab.

AI poses novel challenges, and these four national experiments revealed the public’s considered judgments about what it should — or should not — be able to use it for.
James Fishkin
Director, Stanford Deliberative Democracy Lab

Much of the agenda focused on specific proposals answering ten basic questions, including:

  • Which sources should AI chatbots draw information from?
  • Should AI chatbots use the user’s past conversations to improve user experience?
  • Should AI chatbots use the user’s online activity to personalize interactions?
  • Should AI chatbots be designed to be human-like?
  • Should users be allowed to use AI chatbots for romantic relationships?


The deliberators in each country were convened on the Stanford Online Deliberation Platform, developed by the Stanford Crowdsourced Democracy Team. This platform is AI-assisted and moderates video-based discussions in small groups of ten. 

Participants noted a generally positive impact of AI, with an increase in positive perceptions post-forum. "This shift in viewpoint, especially notable among those previously unfamiliar with AI, underscores the value of informed discussion in shaping public opinion," remarked Alice Siu, Senior Research Scholar at FSI and Associate Director of the Stanford Deliberative Democracy Lab.

The forum's methodical approach, with deliberations in 166 small groups and a separate control group for each country, ensured that the outcomes accurately reflected the effects of the deliberative process. Findings indicated that users and non-users of AI began to bridge their differences, aligning closer in their attitudes towards AI after the forum.

Siu also emphasized the significance of the event’s feedback, noting that "the high ratings from participants affirm the forum’s success in making complex discussions accessible and relevant. It is an encouraging sign for the future of democratic engagement with technology."

The Stanford Deliberative Democracy Lab is dedicated to deepening our understanding of deliberative democracy processes and their application to critical contemporary issues like AI. The insights from this forum will inform ongoing research and policy recommendations, ensuring that AI evolves in a manner that considers diverse values and voices across the globe.

The project report is available below:

For detailed information on the forum’s conclusions or forthcoming projects, please reach out to James Fishkin (Director, Stanford Deliberative Democracy Lab) or Alice Siu (Associate Director, Stanford Deliberative Democracy Lab) or visit the Deliberative Democracy Lab website.

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Results of First Global Deliberative Poll® Announced by Stanford’s Deliberative Democracy Lab

More than 6,300 deliberators from 32 countries and nine regions around the world participated in the Metaverse Community Forum on Bullying and Harassment.
Results of First Global Deliberative Poll® Announced by Stanford’s Deliberative Democracy Lab
A voter casts their ballot in the Kentucky Primary Elections at Central High School on May 16, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky.
Q&As

New National Deliberative Poll Shows Bipartisan Support for Polarizing Issues Affecting American Democracy

"America in One Room: Democratic Reform" polled participants before and after deliberation to gauge their opinions on democratic reform initiatives, including voter access and voting protections, non-partisan election administration, protecting against election interference, Supreme Court reform, and more. The results show many significant changes toward bipartisan agreement, even on the most contentious issues.
New National Deliberative Poll Shows Bipartisan Support for Polarizing Issues Affecting American Democracy
Alice Siu delivers a TEDxStanford talk
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Deliberative Polling: A Path to Bridging Divides

In a TEDxStanford talk, Alice Siu discusses how applying and spreading deliberative democracy can better engage us all in our shared public problems.
Deliberative Polling: A Path to Bridging Divides
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A multinational Deliberative Poll unveils the global public's nuanced views on AI chatbots and their integration into society.

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Monica Schreiber
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The judicial branches in Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia are acting as a bulwark against authoritarianism, according to an article by SLS’s Diego Zambrano and co-authors.

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Ten years of debates over democratic backsliding have failed to produce many examples of independent institutions thwarting authoritarian attempts on democracy. Yet Latin American courts seem to be countering this larger trend. The three largest countries in the region—Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia—have produced robust institutions able to check leaders with authoritarian tendencies, with high courts playing a fundamental role. In a dramatic succession of recent cases, courts in these three countries have been innovative, acted with a high degree of independence, and appear legitimately interested in defending democratic norms. All of this is profoundly surprising. There is little to no track record of independent Latin American judiciaries that stand in the way of authoritarian governments. Closer study of these three countries is therefore critical for scholars and practitioners, who are otherwise locked in debates over the importance of judicial review in preserving democracy. After dozens of judicial reform failures since the 1990s, we may be observing some overdue success. It appears that 1990s judicial reforms are making a comeback in Latin America.

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Journal of Democracy
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Diego A. Zambrano
Ludmilla Martins da Silva
Rolando Garcia Miron
Santiago P. Rodríguez
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Number 1
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CDDRL Honors Student, 2023-24
melissa_oliveira.jpg

Major: Political Science
Minor: Feminist, Gender and Sexuality Studies
Hometown: Manaus, Brazil
Thesis Advisor: Beatriz Magaloni & Soledad Prillaman

Tentative Thesis Title: From Dilma to Bolsonaro: Does gender policy matter to Brazilian female voters?

Future aspirations post-Stanford: After my undergraduate studies, I will be coterming in Latin American Studies. Upon finishing my master's, I intend to go back to Brazil and work in the government, both in public policy implementation and in representative politics directly. I particularly want to work with gender policy.

A fun fact about yourself: My home city, Manaus, is located in the middle of the Amazon Rainforest, and it is one of the few places where you can have a real açaí bowl.

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CDDRL Visiting Scholar, 2023
Associate Professor of International Business, University of South Carolina
Associate, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University
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Stan Markus is an Associate Professor of International Business at the University of South Carolina and an Associate at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard. He received his Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University and his undergraduate degree from the University of Pennsylvania.

Professor Markus works on state-business relations and is broadly interested in the political economy of development. His projects explore property rights protection, oligarchs, corporate social responsibility, lobbying, corruption, state capacity, and institution building.

His book — Property, Predation, and Protection: Piranha Capitalism in Russia and Ukraine (Cambridge University Press, 2015) — was awarded the Stein Rokkan Prize for Comparative Social Science Research. His research has also been published in the leading peer-reviewed journals in management (e.g. Academy of Management Review), political science (e.g. Comparative Political Studies), development studies (e.g. Studies in Comparative International Development), economic sociology (e.g. Socio-Economic Review), and general interest (e.g. Daedalus). It has also been recognized through many awards, including the Wilson Center Fellowship from the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in D.C.; the Harvard Academy Fellowship from the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies; the Jean Monnet Fellowship from the European University Institute; the Academy of Management Best Paper Award; and the Best Article in Comparative Politics Award from APSA.

Prof. Markus has lived in Russia, Ukraine, China, and several West European countries. He has native fluency in Russian and German, proficiency in French and Ukrainian, and a conversational understanding of Mandarin.

His commentary has been featured in media outlets, including CNN, BBC, New York Times, Washington Post, Bloomberg, Forbes, Fortune, CNBC, NPR, Vox, and Voice of America, among others.

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Following the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and Elijah McClain, the effectiveness of policing and police reform have reemerged as a prominent topic of debate both in the United States and in communities around the world. One popular method of police reform is community policing, defined generally as law enforcement systems where officers build and maintain active, reinforcing relationships with local stakeholders, including citizens and community leaders.

The principle underpinning this philosophy is simple; when law enforcement officers create a personal, responsive presence in a community, they are better able to do their job, benefit from citizens’ cooperation, and overall safety improves. But gauging the actual effectiveness of these practices has proven challenging to study in a controlled and rigorous way.

In a first-of-its-kind study led by Graeme Blair (Dept. of Political Science, University of California–Los Angeles), Jeremy Weinstein (Dept. of Political Science, Stanford and FSI Senior Fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law) and Fotini Christia (Dept. of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology), a group of intercollegiate researchers have published new research examining the effectiveness of community policing in the Global South.

To mark the publication of the new findings in the journal Science this week, Blair, Christia and Weinstein spoke to us about what their findings reveal about the usefulness of community policing practices in a global context, and what more needs to be done to implement police reform in diverse systems.



Let’s start by defining what community policing is. Can you give some context on where this style of intervention comes from and why it has become a popular model in so many places?

Weinstein: Community policing is perhaps the most celebrated policing reform in recent decades. The idea is pretty simple in theory: the police should involve regular citizens directly in their work by building channels of dialogue and improving police-citizen collaboration. In practice, community policing takes lots of different forms including frequent beat patrols, decentralized decision-making, community engagement programs, and problem-oriented policing.

After compelling evidence emerged about the efficacy of community policing in Chicago in the 1990s, the approach took off around the United States. By 2015, nearly all U.S. cities identified community policing as a core element of their mission. Increasingly, advocates have promoted the export of community policing to countries in the Global South where issues of insecurity and mistrust in the police are significant. We wanted to figure out whether these practices work in a wholly different context.

Advocates have promoted the export of community policing to countries in the Global South where issues of insecurity and mistrust in the police are significant. We wanted to figure out whether these practices work in a wholly different context.
Jeremy Weinstein
Professor of Political Science and FSI Senior Fellow at CDDRL

There’s a great deal of support for community policing, but not a lot of concrete data on whether it works. What makes this a challenging issue to study?

Christia: Building trust between police and the citizens they are tasked to protect is at the core of community policing. As such, an important challenge lies with identifying the right measures to capture this often-complex police-citizen interaction. This was even more of a pronounced challenge in our study as we conducted six coordinated experiments across a diverse set of sites in the Global South in Brazil, Colombia, Liberia, Pakistan, the Philippines and Uganda.

To make progress in understanding the impacts of community policing, we needed to develop a set of common strategies for the police to implement that made sense in each national context, which we call locally appropriate community policing interventions. We also needed to agree upon a shared research design across countries and to introduce common outcome measures to ensure that we were looking at the impacts of these programs in similar ways. This approach to launching coordinated, multi-site, randomized controlled trials across contexts has been pioneered by the organization that sponsored this work, Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP).

Researchers from Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) meet with law enforcement officers in the Philippines. Researchers from Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) meet with law enforcement officers in the Philippines. Researchers from Evidence in Governance and Politics

Your team partnered with six communities across the Global South in Brazil, Colombia, Liberia, Pakistan, the Philippines and Uganda. Based on your research, what evidence did you find for or against the use of community policing practices?

Blair: We find that community policing doesn’t live up to its promise when implemented in the Global South. Community policing doesn’t build trust between citizens and police, it doesn’t lead to citizens to share the kinds of tips and information with police that might improve police efficiency, and, perhaps not surprisingly then, it does not lead to lower crime. This disappointing result was apparent across all six contexts and for all of the primary outcomes we measured.

Community policing doesn’t build trust between citizens and police, it doesn’t lead to citizens to share the kinds of tips and information with police that might improve police efficiency, and, perhaps not surprisingly then, it does not lead to lower crime.
Graeme Blair
Assistant Professor of Political Science, UCLA

Is there an alternative to community policing, or ways to reform these systems, that would make them more efficacious at creating the desired outcomes?

Weinstein: We carefully examined each of the six contexts, including through interviews with the police agencies and the research teams, to make sense of this null result. We identified three primary constraints that may have impeded the implementation of community policing: (a) a lack of prioritization of these new practices by police leadership (b) the rotation to new posts of police officers who had championed the effort and were trained to implement it and (c) limited resources to follow up on the concerns raised by citizens.

The bottom line is that community policing isn’t positioned to deliver increased trust and collaboration in environments with limited incentives and resources to enable police to change their behavior. Our conclusion is that community policing should be seen as an incremental reform that can make a difference in well-resourced police departments with strong incentives to be responsive to citizen concerns. But when those conditions are absent, an incremental approach can’t deliver. More systemic reforms are required.

Community members in Uganda fill out survey questions about community policing as part of a research project by Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP). Community members in Uganda fill out survey questions about community policing as part of a research project by Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP). Evidence in Governance and Politics

How does the data from your work fit into broader issues of equity, just representation, and racism that communities across the world continue to grapple with?

Blair: In many ways community policing appears to be the ideal policy for this moment, where so many are demanding that police abuse be reduced while also reducing crime victimization. Community policing is meant to do both, constructing a virtuous cycle between citizen-police cooperation, trust, and crime reduction. Our null results sound a note of caution: it may not be so simple. We observed big barriers to implementing this shift in policing, and barriers that likely affect other incremental policies. To address equity in the way governments enforce the law, we may need more systematic changes to how we organize the police and hold them accountable.   

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Police Reform in Brazil and Mexico: What Works, What Doesn’t, and What the U.S. Can Learn

On the World Class Podcast, Beatriz Magaloni discusses how community-oriented policing and constitutional reform can impact violence committed by police.
Police Reform in Brazil and Mexico: What Works, What Doesn’t, and What the U.S. Can Learn
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The World House Project, Inspired by Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s Vision of a More Just and Peaceful Future, Launches at FSI

Led by Clayborne Carson, the new project works to realize King's vision of the world as a large house in which "we must learn somehow to live with each other in peace.”
The World House Project, Inspired by Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s Vision of a More Just and Peaceful Future, Launches at FSI
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A first-of-its-kind study from Jeremy M. Weinstein, Graeme Blair and Fotini Christia shows that the celebrated practice of community policing may have few, if any, positive impacts on communities in the Global South.

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Nora Sulots
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This week we launched the long-awaited 17th year of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law's Draper Hills Summer Fellowship Program. Founded in 2005 with generous support from Bill and Phyllis Draper and Ingrid von Mangoldt Hills, Draper Hills is an executive training program for world leaders striving to promote democracy. For the next two weeks, Fellows will participate in workshops led by an interdisciplinary team of faculty to study new theories and approaches to democratic development.

Fellows in the class of 2021 were selected from among thousands of applicants for their ground-breaking work to defend democracy. These 34 leaders drawn from 30 countries around the world are pioneering new approaches and models to advance social and political change in some of the most challenging global contexts. Representing business, government, and the nonprofit sector, our fellows are working on the frontlines of democratic change to combat the global rise of authoritarianism and populism. In countries moving towards democracy, our fellows are working to institutionalize new systems and practices to support democratic transitions.

An Unconventional Year


Traditionally, Fellows would travel from their home countries to the U.S. and spend three weeks on campus at Stanford learning together. However, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the program is currently taking place virtually for the first time (for the same reasons, the program did not run in 2020). The shift to online programming posed a number of logistical obstacles – from what time to run virtual sessions when participants span over a dozen time zones to how to foster the sense of belonging and personal connections that occur more naturally in in-person settings.

To begin addressing the latter, Fellows were sent welcome packages to build excitement and foster community both within the program and at Stanford. Upon receiving hers, Aisha Yesufu of Nigeria shared, "I am so excited at the different people I'll be meeting from all over the world, and also learning from different people, lecturers, professors... It's going to be quite interesting, and, for me, that is what I am most looking forward to."

"One of the most important things I have ever been involved with."


Opening against the backdrop of the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in Afghanistan, the importance of the Draper Hills program and the need to promote democratic change is now more evident than ever.

The inaugural session for the 2021 cohort began with Francis Fukuyama introducing the fellows to several of the esteemed faculty they will be learning from over the next two weeks, including Larry Diamond, Erik Jensen, and Michael McFaul. McFaul shared that not only did he found the program, but "it is one of the most important things I have ever been involved with." Jensen later added that "participating in this program is one of the great pleasures I have every year."

More to Come


Throughout the next two weeks, our Draper Hills Fellows will examine the political development, democratic transitions, and the relationship of law to economic development, public administration, administrative law, transitional justice, food security, and global health policy, among others. The group is eager to learn, and we look forward to seeing the many great things the training they receive here will enable them to do in their home countries and beyond.

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For the next two weeks, Fellows will participate in workshops led by an interdisciplinary team of faculty to study new theories and approaches to democratic development.

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Nora Sulots
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Please join us in congratulating Beatriz Magaloni, professor of political science, FSI senior fellow, and faculty director of the Program on Poverty, Violence & Governance, winner of the 2021 Heinz I. Eulau Award for the best article published in American Political Science Review!

In this award-winning article entitled “Killing in the Slums: Social Order, Criminal Governance and Police Violence in Rio de Janeiro," Professor Magaloni, Edgar Franco-Vivanco, and Vanessa Melo explore the conditions that allow criminal organizations to establish local governance structures and the mechanisms that enable the police to regain territorial control and legitimacy.

The article finds that in territories reigned by criminal orders, police have to gain legitimacy in the eyes of the community and emerge as the sole embodiment of coercive force and emerge as the legitimate embodiment of physical force. But this is not always easy. For instance, when criminal rule effectively provides local security and public goods, the state will have a hard time gaining territorial control. Why? Because residents often feel safer under the authority of drug lords than with the police presence. However, where criminal orders cannot restrain their forces from fighting among themselves and victimizing residents, it is significantly easier for the government to regain territorial control and create a legitimate state order. To do so, the state has to constrain violence, monitor and sanction police officers’ abusive behaviors, and bring public justice systems to the poor. Otherwise, the state will likely fail to retake territorial control, allowing criminal orders to prevail.

To read more, check out the article here.

Congratulations, Professor Magaloni, on this high honor!

Beatriz Magaloni

Beatriz Magaloni

Professor of political science, FSI senior fellow, and faculty director of the Program on Poverty, Violence & Governance
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Police Reform in Brazil and Mexico: What Works, What Doesn’t, and What the U.S. Can Learn

On the World Class Podcast, Beatriz Magaloni discusses how community-oriented policing and constitutional reform can impact violence committed by police.
Police Reform in Brazil and Mexico: What Works, What Doesn’t, and What the U.S. Can Learn
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New Research from the Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab Examines Police Brutality

For the last 10 years, a team of social scientists at the Poverty, Violence, and Governance (PovGov) lab at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) have been developing action-oriented research to support human rights and inform policy on the root causes and devastating consequences of violence.
New Research from the Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab Examines Police Brutality
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In Rio’s slums, Stanford researchers study police reform

In Rio’s slums, Stanford researchers study police reform
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The award-winning article is entitled “Killing in the Slums: Social Order, Criminal Governance and Police Violence in Rio de Janeiro.” Professor Magaloni coauthored the article with Edgar Franco-Vivanco, who earned his Ph.D. from Stanford and is now at the University of Michigan; and with Vanessa Melo, a graduate student in Anthropology at UCLA.

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This report presents the Governance Project Survey in Brazil and general results. The survey is part of the Governance Project, conducted by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) of Stanford University in partnership with the Institute of Applied Economics Research (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, IPEA), an agency of the Brazilian federal government. The survey was administered to civil servants of the Brazilian federal public administration between May 15 and July 17, 2018, totaling 3,226 respondents, which encompasses career bureaucrats and appointed positions in the federal executive branch of the Brazilian government. Our survey measures key components of bureaucratic capacity, autonomy, and other related concepts. The collection of responses in Brazil was carried out with the support of the Brazilian Ministry of Planning’s (MPDG) Secretariat for Personnel Management and Labor Relations.

Contributors: 

Ana Karine Pereira
Ph.D. in Political Science from UnB
Visiting researcher at Ipea
Professor at UFG

Raphael Amorim Machado
Ph.D. in Political Science from Unicamp
Visiting researcher at Ipea

Pedro Luiz Costa Cavalcante
Ph.D. in Political Science from UnB
Specialist in Public Policy and Government Management IPEA

Alexandre de Ávila Gomide
Ph.D. in Public Administration and Government by FGV
IPEA Planning and Research Technician

Katherine Bersch
Ph.D. in Political Science from University of Texas at Austin
Research Affiliate, Stanford Governance Project
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Davidson College

Francis Fukuyama
Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard
Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s FSI and the Mosbacher Director of CDDRL

Amanda Gomes Magalhães
Master in Political Science UnB
Research Assistant IPEA

Isabella de Araújo Goellner
Master in Sociology UnB
Research Assistant IPEA

Roberto Rocha Coelho Pires
Ph.D. in Public Policy MIT
IPEA Planning and Research Technician

Alan Ricardo da Silva
Post-Doctorate in Spatial Statistics by University of St Andrews, Scotland, UK
Associate Professor, Department of Statistics UnB

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Francis Fukuyama
Ana Karine Pereira
Raphael Amorim Machado
Pedro Luiz Costa Cavalcante
Alexandra de Avile Gomide
Amanda Gomes Magalhaes
Isabella de Araujo Goellner
Roberto Rocha Coelho Pires
Katherine Bersch
Alan Ricardo da Silva
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