-

Abstract:

This paper estimates the effect that successful cocaine interdiction policies in Colombia have had on violence in Mexico. We propose a simple model of the war on drugs that captures the essence of our identification strategy: aggregate supply shocks affect the size of illegal drug markets, which then increases or decreases violence. We estimate the effect of the interaction of cocaine seizures in Colombia with simple geographic features of Mexican municipalities. Our results indicate that aggregate supply shocks originated in drug seizures in Colombia affect homicides in Mexico. The effects are especially large for violence generated by clashes between drug cartels. Our estimates also show that government crackdowns on drug cartels might not be the only explanation behind the rise of illegal drug trafficking and violence observed in the last six years in Mexico: successful interdiction policies implemented in Colombia since 2006 have also played a major role in the worsening of the Mexican situationduring Calderon's sexennium.

 

Speaker Bio:

Daniel Mejia is Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and Director of the Research Center on Drugs and Security (CESED) at Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia, where he has taught since 2006. He received a BA and MA in Economics from Universidad de los Andes and a MA and PhD in economics from Brown University. Prior to joining Universidad de los Andes he worked as a researcher at the Central Bank of Colombia and Fedesarrollo. Daniel he has been actively involved in a research agenda whose main objective is to provide an independent, economic evaluation of anti-drug policies implemented under Plan Colombia. His academic work has been published at the Journal of Development Economics, the European Journal of Political Economy, Economics of Governance and Economia: Journal of the Latin America Economic Association. In 2008 he was awarded Fedesarrollos´s German Botero de los Ríos prize for economic research. Also, in 2008, 2010 and 2012 he was awarded with research grants from the Open Society Institute for the study of anti-drug policies in Colombia. Daniel, together with Alejandro Gaviria, recently published the book “Políticas antidroga en Colombia: éxitos, fracasos y extravíos” (Anti-drug policies in Colombia: successes, failures and lost opportunities) at Universidad de los Andes, in Bogota. Between 2011 and 2012, Daniel was a member of the Advisory Commission on Criminal Policy and more recently he is the Chair of the Colombian Government´s Advisory Commission on Drugs Policy.

 

CISAC Conference Room

Daniel Mejia Londoño Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and Director of the Research Center on Drugs and Security (CESED) Speaker Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia
Seminars
Authors
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

In June 2013, Beatriz Magaloni, associate professor of political science and director of the Program on Poverty and Governance (PovGov) at the Freeman Spogli Institute’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law led the Stanford Bing Overseas Studies Program (BOSP) to Brazil. The three-week seminar entitled, “Rio de Janeiro: A Cultural and Political Social History,” drew 15 outstanding and diverse Stanford undergraduate students eager to experience life in Latin America’s largest country. The trip allowed the group to learn more about the political and social factors that have transformed - and continue to shape - life in economically marginalized sections of Rio.

Despite recent efforts to fight poverty and accelerate income redistribution, Brazil suffers from high levels of income inequality. In Rio, one of Latin America's largest cities, the results of this inequality are even more profound. There are roughly 763 favelas – urban slums- in Rio that are home to approximately 1.5 million people. The local government has tolerated, but never incorporated favelas into the formal city, leaving residents to organize public services such as electricity, running water or garbage collection in their neighborhoods. As a result of the virtual absence of the state, favelas have long been notoriously violent areas and breeding ground for criminal organizations, specially drug trafficking.

Students at Rocinha, with Paulo Amendoim, their local guide, showed them the highlights of the neighborhood including food, dance and pipa (kite flying).

In 2008, the state of Rio de Janeiro embarked on an unprecedented effort to take back the territories in favelas controlled by criminal organizations ahead of the upcoming World Cup and Summer Olympics, as well as securing favela citizens’ rights to freely move across their own communities. The Pacifying Police Units (UPPs) is at the center of the policy, with 24-hour patrolling and community policing every day. UPP officers focus on breaking down negative police stereotypes by working closely with the population – teaching classes, coaching sport teams, hosting events and organizing forums where community members can express their needs and concerns. The “pacification” process has already involved 31 favelas, with 70 more to come by the 2016 deadline.

Aligned with the ongoing research being carried out by Magaloni and her team at PovGov, the goal of the BOSP seminar in Rio was to introduce students to this important development and analyze how it has impacted the complex social dynamics found within the city. The students explored some of the implications to favela residents in terms of security, local governance, the preservation and dissemination of culture, as well as prospects for economic and social development in “pacified” territories.

The in-country seminar included an introduction to the Portuguese language and cultural activities, including field trips and lectures by experts on a variety of fields including: criminal violence, public security, local history and culture, social entrepreneurship, local governance and public policy. Speakers that participated in the program included: representatives of non-profit organizations such as Viva Rio and the Observatory of Favelas; officials from the Military State Police, including former UPP Commander Colonel Paulo Henrique; as well as university professors from Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro and Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, including criminal violence expert and director of the Laboratory for the Analysis of Violence, Dr. Ignacio Cano.

 

“That hope, warmth, and resilience that the communities had in each favela is a something that still sticks with me, and leaves me optimistic that social change will occur. At the same time it gives me passion to go back, and not only witness the change in future of the favelas, but also be part of it, which is why I'm now taking Portuguese at Stanford!" 

                      - Daniela Olivos ‘16

 

In order to provide students with a more inclusive perspective of the pacification process on the ground, the PovGov team - working alongside local guides and community leaders - planned visits to the “pacified” favelas of Rocinha, Complexo do Alemão and Morro Dona Marta. During these visits the students had the chance to visit the UPP headquarters, talk to the UPP captain, and participate in a community work initiative with Coral Tintas - one of Brazil’s largest paint manufacturing companies committed to improving favelas by providing free paint for locals to renew the facades of houses and buildings. The students also visited the BOPE headquarters, Rio’s elite squad police unit, and Jongo da Serrinha, an NGO that seeks to preserve the tradition of Jongo - a style of music and dance - through a children’s daycare and education center. Additional day-trips and sightseeing tours included: the Rio Art Museum, the Imperial Museum of History, as well as many of Rio’s famous beaches.

According to student participant Marilyn Travis ('16), “Going to Brazil this summer was the trip of a lifetime. We were very lucky to have gifted faculty and staff who worked hard to put together such a rich program. This opportunity has literally shifted my frame of mind on many issues I was previously naive about. I have gained a more global perspective and had the opportunity to contemplate the affects of mega events on marginalized people.”

To view images from the trip please click here.  

 

About the Program on Poverty and Governance

The Program on Poverty and Governance at CDDRL explores factors that affect good governance and poverty alleviation in Latin America, with a focus on Brazil and Mexico. Led by Beatriz Magaloni, associate professor of political science at Stanford University, the program conducts empirical research, bringing together experts from across the disciplines of political science, economics, law, medicine and education to increase understanding of the complex causal linkages between political institutions, the quality of governance, and the capacity of developing societies to meet basic human needs. One of the research platforms, “Governance and Criminal Violence,” studies ways to rebuild the social fabric in violent places where the society does not trust law enforcement and government institutions, with the Pacification of favelas of Rio as a case study.

 

Hero Image
Brazil 03 logo
Students engage in community renovation at a favela in Rio.
All News button
1
Paragraphs

Abstract:
Why have militarized interventions to curtail violence by drug cartels had wildly divergent results? In the past six years, state crackdowns drove a nine-fold increase in cartel-state violence in Mexico, versus a two-thirds decrease in Brazil. Prevailing analyses of drug wars as a criminal subtype of insurgency provide little traction, because they elide differences in rebels’ and cartels’ aims. Cartels, I argue, fight states not to conquer territory or political control, but to coerce state actors and influence policy outcomes. The empirically predominant channel is violent corruption—threatening enforcers while negotiating bribes. A formal model reveals that greater state repression raises bribe prices, leading cartels to fight back whenever (a) corruption is sufficiently rampant, and (b) repression is insufficiently conditional on cartels’ use of violence. Variation in conditionality helps explain observed outcomes: switching to conditional repression pushed Brazilian cartels into nonviolent strategies, while Mexico’s war “without distinctions” inadvertently made fighting advantageous.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
CDDRL Working Papers
Authors
Paragraphs

Abstract:
In order to successfully battle organized crime, governments require a certain degree of citizens’ support. Governments are sometimes able to influence citizens’ opinions, but sometimes they are not. Under what circumstances do pro-government frames influence citizens’ opinions? Will individuals who are victims of crime be equally sensitive to frames than those who are not? We argue that crime victimization desensitizes citizens to pro-government frames. This further complicates governments’ fights against criminals, creating a vicious circle of insecurity, distrust, and frustrated policy interventions. To test our argument, we conducted a frame experiment embedded in a nationwide survey in Mexico. The empirical evidence supports our argument in most circumstances; yet desensitization is moderated by love media-exposure and identification with the president’s party.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
CDDRL Working Papers
Authors
Beatriz Magaloni
Alberto Díaz-Cayeros
Paragraphs

Abstract:
In order to effectively fight criminal organizations, governments require support from significant segments of society. If citizens have a positive assessment of the executive’s job, the likelihood that they will report crimes, and act as allies in the fight increases. This provides important leverage for incumbents, and allows them to continue their policies. Yet, winning the hearts and minds of citizens is not an easy endeavor. Crime and violence affect citizens’ most valuable assets: life and property. Thus, one would expect a close relationship between public security and presidential approval? To generate robust answers to this question, and its multiple implications, we use Mexico as a case study, and use data at both the aggregate and at the individual level. We find that approval levels are indeed affected by crime, but not by all crimes. Perhaps surprisingly, they are not affected by the most serious of crimes: homicide. At the individual level, we find that support for the mere act of fighting organized crime has a stronger effect on approval than actual performance on public security. We also find no effect of crime victimization on approval at the individual level.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
CDDRL Working Papers
Authors
Beatriz Magaloni
Alberto Díaz-Cayeros

Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford CA 94305-6055

0
Jarillo_hs2.jpg

Brenda Jarillo Rabling is a Postdoctoral Scholar in the Program of Poverty and Governance. She received her Ph.D. in international and comparative education from the Stanford Graduate School of Education (2013), and, graduated cum laude with a B.A. in economics from the Center for Research and Teaching of Economics (CIDE) in Mexico (2004).

Brenda’s primary fields of interest are economics of education and education policy in United States and Latin America. Her research focuses on (a) interventions to improve the educational outcomes of disadvantaged populations; (b) the impact of poverty and violence on educational outcomes (c) and issues related to young children’s health, development and learning.

Her dissertation consists of three-related research papers that investigate the role of the timing, type and quality of early childhood education programs in reducing the school readiness gap in the United States. Using a novel strategy to account for dynamic selection bias, she estimated the differential effect of the age of entry into preschool, and the effect of switching from one type of care to another on children’s cognitive and socio-behavioral outcomes. Her second paper utilizes a matching estimator approach to evaluate the effectiveness of after-school child care programs to reduce the differences in academic achievement between low-income minority children and their more affluent peers. The last paper estimates how much of the social-class gradient in cognitive and socio-behavioral outcomes is explained by socio-economic disparities in the quality of child care environments. Her dissertation work was supported by the American Educational Research Association Dissertation Grants Program and the Stanford Graduate School of Education Support Grant.

Brenda is currently working on three main projects related to violence and education in Mexico. One investigates the impact of exposure to violent crime on educational outcomes. The second is an assessment of a government-sponsored violence prevention program implemented in public schools since 2007. The third one is an evaluation of a community-based program targeting training and educational opportunities for school dropouts who are unemployed and live in areas where crime, violence and vandalism are common.

PovGov Postdoctoral Fellow, 2013-16
News Type
Commentary
Date
Paragraphs

According to a common view in Mexico today, the attempt to transform Mexican political institutions according to liberal values since the nineteenth century has been a complete failure. On this view, the reasons for this failure are, primarily, that liberal values and ideas were “foreign” and “imported”, such that they could hardly have taken root in a society that had recently emerged from three centuries of colonial rule and was, therefore, backwards and “traditional”. Scholars often complain that liberals failed to realize the values of freedom and equality, that there is no rule of law, no public culture of toleration, and no effective enforcement of fundamental individual rights either civil or political.

All News button
1
News Type
Commentary
Date
Paragraphs

Why have militarized crackdowns on drug cartels had wildly divergent outcomes, sometimes exacerbating cartel-state conflict, as in Mexico and, for decades, in Brazil, but sometimes reducing violence, as with Rio de Janeiro's new 'Pacification' (UPP) strategy?  CDDRL-CISAC Post Doctoral Fellow Benjamin Lessing will distinguish key logics of violence, focusing on violent corruption--cartels' use of coercive force in the negotiation of bribes. Through this channel, crackdowns can lead to increased fighting unless the intensity of state repression is made conditional on cartels' use of violence--a key difference between Mexico and Brazil.

All News button
1
Subscribe to Mexico