2: Sheinbaum’s landslide was a referendum on the legacy of the current President, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).

Given the massive Movement of National Regeneration (MORENA) electoral landslide, are we witnessing the beginnings of a MORENA-dominant era in Mexican politics?

Tesalia Rizzo: MORENA, the party of the current president, has been said to draw inspiration from the PRI, which governed during those 70 years. MORENA has effectively used social policy to gain favor among Mexicans. This election demonstrated that the strategy of using social policy to gain voter favor was successful not only at the presidential level but also at the state level, gaining more states and seats in Congress. This indicates that MORENA has built a stable party and a stable electorate, suggesting a potentially dominant era for the party.

Why do you think the margin of victory was so large?  

Tesalia Rizzo: It doesn't necessarily come as a huge surprise. López Obrador's approval ratings have been off the charts and very stable for a long time. This approval is largely driven by his social policies, which have been carefully crafted and effectively implemented. This election has shown that MORENA is now a political party with strong structures across the country. People are joining MORENA not only because they see it as a party that can win elections but also because they sense stability in its structure. If we think of parties as institutionalized social movements, perhaps MORENA has followed a similar path. 

3: Mexico has cemented its position as a consolidated electoral democracy, with strong procedural safeguards and a vibrant civil society embracing democratic values.

As an observer of democracies throughout the world, does Mexico fulfill the requirements of an electoral democracy?

Larry Diamond: I think people chose the leader they wanted in Mexico. It's easier to declare this democratic when it isn't close — it was decisive, a landslide. There's no sign that I know of significant fraud in the election. There's no sign that it wasn't cleanly and efficiently administered. And there's always a question of "compared to what?" If you look at the controversies around the U.S. election, for example, it may look better or less disputed, more efficient than some of the elections we held in U.S. states. Many people in the United States might wish for a system of national electoral authority that has the technical efficiency and ability to standardize across the country, as the National Electoral Institute (INE) has.

What about the political violence that occurred before the election? Would those challenges qualify Mexico as a liberal democracy?

Larry Diamond: I think there are many things to be noted about the state of Mexican democracy before election day. Some relate to the nature of the campaign, and some to the broader character of political and civic space in Mexico. Regarding the campaign, when you have a significant number of candidates assassinated — 40 to 50 people, which is shocking and deeply distressing — this isn't necessarily a ruling party killing its opponents but indicates a state that lacks the capacity to rein in criminal and narco-trafficking violence. This kind of climate degrades the electoral environment, though I wouldn't say it alone makes Mexico a non-democracy.

The sitting president of Mexico, AMLO, has been highly critical of the autonomous body for electoral administration, the INE. From a legal standpoint, what are the risks to the institutional architecture of electoral politics in the coming years?

Amrit Singh: I think it's important to recognize that INE has been one of the crown jewels of Mexico's democracy. It is widely regarded as one of the most independent and professional election commissions in the world. Whether it continues to be as highly regarded will depend on what Claudia Sheinbaum decides to do — whether she chooses to break from President López Obrador's authoritarian agenda or to open a new chapter in Mexico in favor of democracy and the rule of law.

You described the potential consequences of MORENA moving ahead with constitutional amendments that could affect the autonomy of the electoral agency. Do you think the new government has any incentive to pursue an agenda that would debilitate INE? If so, can we still speak about an electoral democracy in Mexico?

Amrit Singh: That remains to be seen. Claudia Sheinbaum has an opportunity to open a new chapter in Mexico's democracy. She has indicated, for example, that she is in favor of voting for judges, a proposal submitted by President López Obrador to Mexico's Congress back in February 2024. Whether she sticks to that position still remains to be seen. It is worrying that the constitutional reform proposals by President López Obrador may become a reality because MORENA and its allies now have a qualified majority in Congress. Over the last few years under President López Obrador's administration, we have seen systematic attacks on the independent institutions necessary for safeguarding democracy in Mexico. These attacks targeted INE, INAI (the freedom of information agency), and the federal judiciary. If such attacks continue under the new administration, there will be nothing left to speak of in terms of electoral democracy in Mexico. These institutions are essential for maintaining the checks and balances and the separation of powers necessary to uphold the rule of law and individual rights and freedoms.

4: Mexico is still lacking some of the civil protections of liberal democracy, the most apparent being insecurity and drug violence, which remain top unresolved issues.

How is it possible for the incumbent party, MORENA, to be reelected despite the security conditions and maintenance of high levels of violence?

Beatriz Magaloni: The main issue in Mexico is the violence surrounding elections, not necessarily from political parties or the incumbent attacking opposition candidates, but from organized crime. These were the most violent elections we've had, with at least 30 candidates for municipal presidencies and other positions killed and more than 200 attacked. This is deeply concerning because it means that organized crime, not just voters, is influencing election outcomes. How do we explain AMLO's victory? Because, although it is Claudia's victory, it is essentially a referendum on AMLO’s performance. He is an incredibly intelligent politician who has been able to amass electoral support through various mechanisms, including delivering entitlements and public services to poor and middle-class voters.

Xóchitl Gálvez ran a campaign highlighting the violence and harshly criticizing AMLO’s "hugs, not bullets" slogan. Claudia has said she will increase the size of the National Guard. How do you think this will work out in a liberal democracy, having an even larger military presence in Mexico?

Beatriz Magaloni: Xóchitl didn't win for two main reasons. One, she was embraced by political parties like the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), and the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), which have been discredited for their own roles in perpetuating violence. President Calderón started the war on drugs, and during President Peña Nieto’s administration, we saw events like the disappearance of the Ayotzinapa students, which increased corruption and impunity. This association with discredited parties hurt her campaign. Secondly, she was competing against an incumbent who was very popular. People don’t really know who Claudia is, and we are eager to learn what she brings to politics at this critical juncture, with high levels of violence and immigration issues.

5: Popular welfare programs glue together the MORENA coalition, but these might not be enough to reduce poverty and improve well-being.

What do you expect will happen with poverty alleviation and the provision of basic public services like health and education?  

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros: The government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) always claimed to prioritize the poor. "Primero los pobres" ("first the poor") was the slogan in his campaign, and Claudia Sheinbaum repeated it yesterday in her victory speech. It is paradoxical that a government claiming to support the poor removed the most crucial and effective poverty reduction program Mexico has had in two decades. Claudia Sheinbaum is not obligated to follow AMLO's exact policies. I expect she will likely listen to experts and policy advice from those working on poverty relief globally and in Mexico. Hopefully, she will incorporate elements of conditional cash transfer programs that have successfully alleviated poverty worldwide.

Claudia Sheinbaum's proposals and the legacy of her predecessor, AMLO, suggest that she aims to build on the foundation laid by Mexico's fourth transformation. What do you expect her social policies to look like? Will she move Mexico closer to a universal welfare state?

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros: The current government has aimed to create programs that move Mexico towards a universal welfare state. AMLO's significant poverty reduction achievement was raising the minimum wage, which benefited moderately poor families but not the extremely poor. But the removal of the conditional cash transfer program and Seguro Popular led to a loss of access to public health for a significant portion of the population. Moving towards universalization will require substantial funding and a focus on labor market reforms.

6: This election matters to Americans and the world for the sake of global economic growth, hemispheric security, and multicultural diversity in the U.S.

Why does the Mexican election matter to the U.S.?

Tino Cuéllar: Mexico has become a particularly massive trading partner of the United States, the largest trading partner now that trade with China has declined due to trade tensions. Additionally, the law enforcement and rule of law interests of the United States and Mexico often converge. So, the well-being of the United States, its relationship to the larger world, and issues many Americans care deeply about — security, migration, and economic prosperity — are all interconnected with Mexico.

Compared to U.S. elections, how vibrant is Mexican democracy?

Tino Cuéllar: In both countries, democratic processes have withstood attacks and efforts to undermine institutions. However, the success of democracy depends not only on formal legal arrangements — such as electoral institutes, courts, and prosecutors — but also on norms, traditions, and habits of behavior. An important distinction in discussions about Mexican democracy is the risk of violence that candidates face. In the U.S., running for office generally does not expose one to great risk due to law enforcement and norms. In Mexico, improving democracy further will involve securing the well-being of candidates, even if their agendas might upset people who might target or threaten them. In principle, there are many common interests that Mexico and the United States share. They both have an interest in keeping borders secure, making economies vibrant, and allowing the peoples of both countries to share in a more prosperous hemispheric economy, which is good for both countries and the world.

Read the article in the December 2023 issue of Stanford Magazine.

This article was originally published in The Stanford Daily on August 22, 2022

Since then, Jensen said, the program has grown significantly, thanks to the generous support of Bill Draper and Ingrid von Mangoldt Hills, with even “more faculty who wanted to participate than we could accommodate.”

According to Fukuyama, Draper Hills has become an important forum for training democratic leaders around the world. 

“We try to provide a mixture of practical skills, networking tools and a stronger intellectual foundation so they can think about their future careers to determine the most strategically impactful way they can behave and act in the present,” he said.

In recent years, the program has shifted its focus toward technology, global warming, and poverty, which increasingly figure large roles in the fight for democracy, according to Jensen. Case studies, panels, and guest lectures from international experts fill the fellows’ three weeks on campus.

Outside of their classes in the Bechtel Center, the fellows tour San Francisco landmarks and enjoy group dinners hosted by the core faculty. In previous years, for example, fellows have visited local technology firms like Twitter, Google, and Facebook to explore “how democracies and autocracies can use technology to promote their goals,” Stoner said.

With help from the program, Draper Hills Fellows have consistently become leaders in law, politics, civil society organizations, and international development after graduation, with a growing alumni network of almost 400. Renchinnyam Amarjargalis, the former Prime Minister of Mongolia, was a fellow in 2005, along with other alumni who have risen to international prominence. 

Diamond added that the Foreign Affairs Minister of the government in exile of Myanmar, Zin Mar Aung, is also a former Draper Hills Fellow and has become “one of the most important leaders of the opposition in Burma fighting for democracy.”

The Draper Hills program gives its fellows more confidence and tools to see their work and struggles in a larger context, according to Diamond.

“Once you realize it’s part of a global pattern, you don’t feel that your national situation is quite so cursed,” he said. “You can draw strength from this solidarity and the sharing of experiences.”

Beyond the three weeks of the program, fellows remain connected to one another through on-campus gatherings, WhatsApp channels, and regional workshops around the world.

“As fellows, we are part of a very great network that always reminds us that, as activists for democracy and human rights, we are not alone,” said former Peruvian Minister of Education and current Draper Hills Fellow Daniel Alfaro. “There are others like us who are great fighters.” 

Participants, many of whom are already rising leaders in international democratic movements, are starting to see how valuable the program will be for their future work.

“Draper Hills has already expanded my horizons in terms of the roles that I can play in Mexican society to promote change, and provided many important allies and a network that can support these changes,” said current fellow Mariela Saldivar Villalobos, a Mexican activist and politician. “I feel deeply honored to have this opportunity. And I hope one day, Stanford will feel proud of investing its time and talent in me.”