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تحلل هذه الورقة الخيارات التي تواجه اليمن، والرئيس اليمني علي عبد الله صالح، في ضوء الاحتجاجات الداعية إلى الإصلاح الديمقراطي في البلاد في مطلع العام 2011.

هذه الورقة تطرح وتقيم الخيارات الممكنة للرئيس وتقترح خارطة طريق محتملة كوسيلة لحل الأزمة.

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This paper explores the options facing Yemen and President Ali Abdullah Saleh in light of the protests calling for democratic reform in the country in early 2011.

The paper maps out and assesses possible options for President Saleh and proposes a potential roadmap as a way to resolve the crisis.

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The Program on Arab Reform and Democracy is pleased to announce its second annual conference on May 12-13, 2011.

This conference focuses on empowering political activism in the Arab world, and features scholars and activists discussing the achievements of and challenges facing political activists in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia.

 


From Political Activism to Democratic Change in the Arab World

Second Annual Conference of the

Program on Arab Reform and Democracy

Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) atStanfordUniversity

May 12-13, 2011

BechtelConferenceCenter,StanfordUniversity

 

 

Thursday May 12, 2011

 

8:30-9:00 Welcome

 

9:00-9:45 Opening Speech

Activism in the Middle East: A Framework

Ellen Lust,YaleUniversity

 

9:45-10:15 Break

 

10:15-12:15 Tunisia and Egypt

Chair: Ellen Lust,YaleUniversity

 

Toward a Second Republic in Tunisia

Christopher Alexander,DavidsonCollege

 

Political Activism of Everyday Life: Lessons from the Tunisian Revolution

Nabiha Jerad,Tunisia

 

Factors Leading to the Egyptian Revolution; Where are We Now?

Ahmed Salah,Egypt

 

Discussant: Michele Dunne, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

 

12:15-1:15 Lunch

 

1:15-3:15 The Gulf

Chair: Larry Diamond,StanfordUniversity

 

The 2011 Uprising in Bahrain and its Consequences on the Participative Institutions

Laurence Louër, SciencesPo

 

Activism in Bahrain and the Struggle for Reform

Maryam Al Khawaja,Bahrain Centre for Human Rights

 

Saudi Arabia: The Impossible Revolution?

Stéphane Lacroix, SciencesPo

 

Challenges to Realistic Political Reforms in Yemen

Munir Mawari,Yemen

 

3:15-3:45 Break

 

3:45-5:15 Syria and Lebanon

Chair: Lina Khatib,StanfordUniversity

 

Activism and the Orphan Reform in Lebanon.

Ziad Majed,AmericanUniversity ofParis

 

Syria from Political Activism to Popular Uprising: A Roadmap to Democracy

Radwan Ziadeh,GeorgeWashingtonUniversity

 

Discussant: Daniel Brumberg,GeorgetownUniversity

 

 

 

Friday May 13, 2011

 

9:00-10:30 Palestine

Chair: Khalil Barhoum,StanfordUniversity

 

Pretending Palestine is Normal

Nathan Brown,GeorgeWashingtonUniversity

 

Palestine: The Non-violent Popular Struggle for Freedom and the Future of Democracy

Mustafa Barghouti, MP,Palestine

 

10:30-11:00 Break

 

11:00-1:00 Jordan and Morocco

Chair: Hicham Ben Abdallah,StanfordUniversity

 

A Decade of Struggling Reform Efforts in Jordan: The Resilience of the Rentier System

Marwan Muasher, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

 

Assessing Current Public Perceptions of Political Activism Development in Jordan

Amer Bani Amer,Al-HayatCenter for Civil Society Development

 

Morocco: Activist Revival vs. Autocratic Resilience

Ahmed Benchemsi,StanfordUniversity

 

 Discussant: Sean Yom,TempleUniversity

 

1:00-2:00 Lunch

 

2:00-4:00 Concluding Roundtable Discussion and Reflections

Chair: Larry Diamond,StanfordUniversity


 

Bechtel Conference Center

Lina Khatib Moderator

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-6448 (650) 723-1928
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Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and Sociology
diamond_encina_hall.png MA, PhD

Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab WorldWill China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Former Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Faculty Chair, Jan Koum Israel Studies Program
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Larry Diamond Moderator

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Consulting Professor
Ben_Abdallah.jpg MA

Hicham Ben Abdallah received his B.A. in Politics in 1985 from Princeton University, and his M.A. in Political Science from Stanford in 1997. His interest is in the politics of the transition from authoritarianism to democracy.

He has lectured in numerous universities and think tanks in North America and Europe. His work for the advancement of peace and conflict resolution has brought him to Kosovo as a special Assistant to Bernard Kouchner, and to Nigeria and Palestine as an election observer with the Carter Center. He has published in journals such Le Monde,  Le Monde Diplomatique,Pouvoirs, Le Debat, The Journal of Democracy, The New York Times, El Pais, and El Quds.

In 2010 he has founded the Moulay Hicham Foundation which conducts social science research on the MENA region. He is also an entrepreneur with interests in agriculture, real estate, and renewable energies. His company, Al Tayyar Energy, has a number of clean energy projects in Asia and Europe. 

Hicham Ben Abdallah Moderator
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As in much of the Arab world, 2011 was a year of social upheaval and momentous change for Yemen. Following eleven months of popular protest, and under significant international pressure, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh agreed to a UN-backed transition initiative in November 2011. The initiative ensured a transfer of power from Saleh to his deputy, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, and mandated a two-year period of national dialogue to resolve long-standing political issues and produce a new constitution before elections are held in 2014.

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Born in New York in 1977, Nir Rosen has been reporting from Iraq since April of 2003 and has spent most of the last seven and a half years in Iraq. He recently returned from a trip to seven provinces in the country. He has also reported from Afghanistan, Pakistan, the former Yugoslavia, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Mexico, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Yemen, Turkey and Egypt. He has written for magazines such as The New Yorker, Rolling Stone and most major American publications. He has filmed documentaries. He is a Fellow at the New York University Center on Law and Security. His new book, Aftermath: Following the Bloodshed of America's Wars in the Muslim World, is about occupation, resistance, sectarianism and civil war from Iraq to Lebanon to Afghanistan.

CISAC Conference Room

Nir Rosen Writer, journalist, filmaker and Fellow Speaker The Center on Law and Security, NYU School of Law
Seminars
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A former career member of the Senior Foreign Service, Barbara Bodine served as US Ambassador to Yemen from 1997-2001. Ambassador Bodine spent her 30-year diplomatic career primarily in the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula, including tours as Deputy Principal Officer in Baghdad during the Iran-Iraq War and Deputy Chief of Mission in Kuwait during the Iraqi invasion and occupation in 1990. In 2003 Ambassador Bodine served as coordinator for post-conflict reconstruction for Baghdad and the central governorates of Iraq.

In addition to a number of assignments in the State Department's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, Ms. Bodine was the Associate Coordinator for Operations and subsequently acting overall Coordinator for Counterterrorism at the Department of State, Dean of the School of Professional Studies at the Foreign Service Institute and Director of East African Affairs.

Ambassador Bodine is the recipient of a number of awards, including the Secretary's Award for Valor, the Secretary's Career Achievement Award and the Department's Distinguished Service Award.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Ambassador Barbara K. Bodine Senior Fellow Speaker Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
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The Center for Global Development opened its doors in November 2001, just two months after the terrorist attacks of September 11. The terrorist network behind the attacks was based in Afghanistan, having been expelled from Sudan,a nd was associated with earlier fatal attacks against US targets in Kenya, Tanzania, and Yemen. These attacks constituted a wake-up call, in both the development and security communities, to a new, shared challenge. In the 21st century, a sensible national security strategy would have to tackle the risks to Americans of development failures in faraway places.

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Michael A. McFaul
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Islam and Democracy in the Middle East provides a comprehensive assessment of the origins and staying power of Middle East autocracies, as well as a sober account of the struggles of state reformers and opposition forces to promote civil liberties, competitive elections, and a pluralistic vision of Islam. Drawing on the insights of some twenty-five leading Western and Middle Eastern scholars, the book highlights the dualistic and often contradictory nature of political liberalization. As the case studies of Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and Yemen suggest, political liberalization -- as managed by the state -- not only opens new spaces for debate and criticism, but is also used as a deliberate tactic to avoid genuine democratization. In several chapters on Iran, the authors analyze the benefits and costs of limited reform. There, the electoral successes of President Mohammad Khatami and his reformist allies inspired a new generation but have not as yet undermined the clerical establishment's power. By contrast, in Turkey a party with Islamist roots is moving a discredited system beyond decades of conflict and paralysis, following a stunning election victory in 2002.

Turkey's experience highlights the critical role of political Islam as a force for change. While acknowledging the enduring attraction of radical Islam throughout the Arab world, the concluding chapters carefully assess the recent efforts of Muslim civil society activists and intellectuals to promote a liberal Islamic alternative. Their struggles to affirm the compatibility of Islam and pluralistic democracy face daunting challenges, not least of which is the persistent efforts of many Arab rulers to limit the influence of all advocates of democracy, secular or religious.

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Johns Hopkins University Press
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Larry Diamond
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