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CDDRL Visiting Scholar, 2022
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Lyubov Sobol is a Russian political and public figure. She consistently advocates the democratization of Russia and opposes Putin's policies.

She produces the YouTube channel "Navalny Live" of Alexei Navalny (more than 2.7 million subscribers, more than 90 million views per month, of which more than 20 million unique viewers).

She participated in the election campaign for the Moscow City Duma in 2019 and the State Duma of Russia in 2021 but was illegally admitted because of her political position: opposing the actions of the current government.

In May 2018 she became a member of the Central Council of Alexei Navalny's political party Russia of the Future.

Sobol was a lawyer for the Anti-Corruption Foundation until its closure in 2021.

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2022-23
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Major: International Relations
Hometown: Los Angeles, CA
Thesis Advisor: Stephen Stedman

Tentative Thesis Title: The UN and State-building Missions: Democratic Institutions and Legitimacy

Future aspirations post-Stanford: I will be applying to both law school and PhD programs — I hope writing my thesis will help me choose between the two. Post-graduate school, I want to get involved in developmental policymaking.

A fun fact about yourself: I am trained in classical ballet, and I perform with Stanford's own Cardinal Ballet Company!

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2022-23
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Major: International Relations
Minor: Human Rights
Hometown: Arcadia, CA
Thesis Advisor: Rob Reich

Tentative Thesis Title: Understanding Facebook's disparities in democratic investment around the world

Future aspirations post-Stanford: I'm not entirely sure yet, but I know that my work will relate to human rights in some way, whether that looks like immigrant and refugee justice or the intersection of human rights and technology. I am interested in going to law school one day, and I would love to work a few years in policy and advocacy first.

A fun fact about yourself: My current favorite artist and writer is the same person: Japanese Breakfast, aka Michelle Zauner. If you haven't listened to her band’s music or read "Crying in H-Mart," you must!

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The Russia and Eurasia Program at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University is pleased to announce the recipient of the third annual book prize of the Fletcher U.S.-Russia Relations Initiative  — Dr. Kathryn Stoner. The prize is for the outstanding work in her latest book, Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order (2021).

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Book cover of Russia Resurrected and author Kathryn Stoner
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Kathryn Stoner is the recipient of the third annual book prize of the Fletcher U.S.-Russia Relations Initiative, presented by the Russia and Eurasia Program at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. The prize is for the outstanding work in her latest book, Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order (2021).

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CDDRL's Fisher Family Honors Program trains students from any academic department at Stanford to prepare them to write a policy-relevant research thesis with global impact on a subject touching on democracy, development, and the rule of law. For our final Spring 2022 seminar, please join us to hear our Honors Program award winners present their research.

Adrian Scheibler, Firestone Medal winner
 

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Adrian Scheibler
Major: International Relations
Thesis Advisor: Christophe Crombez

Thesis Title: Challenging the State: Western European Regionalism in the Era of Financial Crisis

Abstract: The Global Financial Crisis and its aftershocks have substantially altered the Western European political landscape. But while the literature has extensively focused on the impacts of the economic hardship on traditional party competition, it has often failed to consider the center-periphery dimension. My thesis addresses both the demand for and supply of regionalist ideologies during the crisis. Using an original dataset containing 8 countries, 35 regions, and 128 regionalist parties, it finds that voters did not increase their support for regionalist parties during the crisis and may have even turned their backs on these political actors. In addition, I consider the reactions of regionalist parties in three Spanish autonomous communities - Catalonia, the Basque Country, and Galicia - to the crisis. I find evidence of regionalist mobilization on the issue and even some indications of radicalization of regionalist demands. Taken together, these findings raise interesting implications for the impacts of the financial crisis and the interaction between economic indicators, party competition, and voting patterns.

 

Michal Skreta, CDDRL Outstanding Thesis winner
 

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Michal Skreta
Major: Economics and Political Science
Thesis Advisor: Larry Diamond

Thesis Title: Babies, Money, and Power: Estimating Causal Effects of the “Family 500+” Child Benefit Program in Poland using the Synthetic Control Method

Abstract: The ‘Family 500+” child benefit program introduced in April 2016 by the government of Poland has become the single most expensive component of Polish social policy expenditure, yet past studies have rarely estimated the effects of the program through causal methods. In a novel application within this context, I propose using the synthetic control method as a causal identification strategy to empirically estimate country-level treatment effects of the program on fertility, poverty, and inequality. Treating 500+ as a natural experiment, I compare observational data from actual Poland with a synthetic counterfactual of Poland constructed from a weighted donor pool of other European countries through a data-driven selection procedure. My findings on fertility metrics are consistent with prior studies, being ambiguous and insignificant, indicating that the main short-term objective of the program has not been achieved. Meanwhile, I find that the program causally reduced the rate of people at risk of poverty in Poland by over 16%, including by more than 23% among children. I also find that the child benefit has led to a significant reduction in income inequality, being causally responsible for a decline of 5.9% in the Gini index and of 8.0% in the income quintile share ratio. While significant, the results on poverty and inequality are weaker than initially anticipated. My results are robust under in-space treatment reassignment placebo studies. The findings contribute to a growing literature on the causal effects of child benefit policy interventions applied on an aggregate unit level.

 

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Stephen J. Stedman
Didi Kuo

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2021-22
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Major: International Relations / Coterm Public Policy   
Minor: Economics
Hometown: Augst, Switzerland
Thesis Advisor: Christophe Crombez 

Tentative Thesis Title: Separatism in Western Europe: Ideologies and the European Union

Future aspirations post-Stanford: Continue with studies either in law or political science/economics.

A fun fact about yourself: I spent the coronavirus lockdown in Belgium.

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2021-22
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Major: Economics and Political Science   
Hometown: Warsaw, Poland
Thesis Advisor: Larry Diamond

Tentative Thesis Title: Babies, Money, and Power: Estimating Causal Effects of the “Family 500+” Child Benefit Program in Poland using the Synthetic Control Method

Future aspirations post-Stanford: I hope to ultimately pursue a career at the intersection of private and public sectors with a strong international focus as well as to continue my interdisciplinary education in graduate school.

A fun fact about yourself: I once got lost on a volcano in Guatemala.

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2021-22
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Major: Political Science
Minor: Computer Science; Ethics and Technology 
Hometown: Fort Worth, TX
Thesis Advisor: Francis Fukuyama

Tentative Thesis Title: Examining Why Countries With Little Histories of Privacy Enact Data Privacy Laws

Future aspirations post-Stanford: I'm not sure precisely what I want to do after college, but I hope to work at the intersection of technology and law/policy.

A fun fact about yourself: I'm a vegetarian from Texas (and my hometown is actually referred to as Cowtown).

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2021-22
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Major: Economics and Political Science   
Hometown: Warsaw, Poland
Thesis Advisor: Larry Diamond

Tentative Thesis Title: Babies, Money, and Power: Estimating Causal Effects of the “Family 500+” Child Benefit Program in Poland using the Synthetic Control Method

Future aspirations post-Stanford: I hope to ultimately pursue a career at the intersection of private and public sectors with a strong international focus as well as to continue my interdisciplinary education in graduate school.

A fun fact about yourself: I once got lost on a volcano in Guatemala.

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Modern Authoritarianism and Geopolitics: Thoughts on a Policy Framework

Once upon a time, there was a seductive story about twin revolutions, a political one in France and an industrial one in Britain, that supposedly ushered in our modern world. This narrative never sat well with empirical realities, yet it lives on in textbooks. What might be a more persuasive framework for a global history of the modern era? What are the implications for research and the teaching of history?

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

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Steve Kotkin
Stephen Kotkin is the John P. Birkelund Professor of History and International Affairs in what used to be called the Woodrow Wilson School and in the History Department of Princeton University, as well as a Senior Fellow (adjunct) at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He directs the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies and co-directs its program in History and the Practice of Diplomacy, which he founded. He also founded Princeton’s Global History Initiative. His scholarship encompasses geopolitics and authoritarian regimes in history and in the present.

Kotkin has published two volumes of a three-volume history of the world as seen from Stalin’s desk: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928 (Penguin, November 2014) and Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941 (Penguin, October 2017). The final installment, Totalitarian Superpower, 1941-1990s, is underway. He writes reviews and essays for Foreign Affairs, the Times Literary Supplement, and The Wall Street Journal, and served as the business book reviewer for The New York Times Sunday Business Section. He is an occasional consultant for governments and some private companies. PhD UC Berkeley (1988).

 

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Kathryn Stoner

Online, via Zoom

Stephen Kotkin John P. Birkelund Professor of History and International Affairs
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Hitler, Stalin, and Mao ruled through violence, fear, and ideology. But in recent decades a new breed of media-savvy strongmen has been redesigning authoritarian rule for a more sophisticated, globally connected world.

In place of overt, mass repression, rulers such as Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Viktor Orbán control their citizens by distorting information and simulating democratic procedures. Like spin doctors in democracies, they spin the news to engineer support. Uncovering this new brand of authoritarianism, Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman explain the rise of such “spin dictators,” describing how they emerge and operate, the new threats they pose, and how democracies should respond.

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Spin Dictators
Spin Dictators traces how leaders such as Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew and Peru’s Alberto Fujimori pioneered less violent, more covert, and more effective methods of monopolizing power. They cultivated an image of competence, concealed censorship, and used democratic institutions to undermine democracy, all while increasing international engagement for financial and reputational benefits. The book reveals why most of today’s authoritarians are spin dictators—and how they differ from the remaining “fear dictators” such as Kim Jong-un and Bashar al-Assad, as well as from masters of high-tech repression like Xi Jinping.

Offering incisive portraits of today’s authoritarian leaders, Spin Dictators explains some of the great political puzzles of our time—from how dictators can survive in an age of growing modernity to the disturbing convergence and mutual sympathy between dictators and populists like Donald Trump.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

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Daniel Treisman
Daniel Treisman is a professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (2021-2). His research focuses on Russian politics and economics as well as comparative political economy, including the analysis of democratization, the politics of authoritarian states, political decentralization, and corruption. A former lead editor of The American Political Science Review, he has been a Guggenheim Fellow and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution (Stanford) and the Institute for Human Sciences (Vienna), as well as receiving fellowships from the German Marshall Fund of the US and the Smith Richardson Foundation. His book, The Return: Russia’s Journey from Gorbachev to Medvedev (The Free Press 2011) was one of the Financial Times’ “Best Political Books of 2011”. He is the editor of The New Autocracy: Information, Politics, and Policy in Putin’s Russia (Brookings Institution Press 2018), and co-author of Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century (Princeton University Press 2022).

 

At this time, in-person attendance is limited to Stanford affiliates only. We continue to welcome our greater community to join virtually via Zoom.

Kathryn Stoner

Online, via Zoom

Daniel Treisman UCLA CASBS
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When backsliding occurs at the hands of populist presidents who were elected in landslide elections, producing dominant executives with few institutional checks and weak opposition parties, should we blame the decline in democracy on their populist ideology, their presidential powers, or their parties’ dominance in the legislature? The literature on democratic backsliding has mostly arrived at a consensus on what backsliding entails and collectively has revealed its growing prevalence around the globe. Yet, scholars have not settled on causal explanations for this phenomenon. We assess the evidence for recent ideology-centered arguments for democratic backsliding relative to previous institutional arguments among all democratically elected executives serving in all regions of the world since 1970. We use newly available datasets on populist leaders and parties to evaluate the danger of populists in government, and we employ matching methods to distinguish the effects of populist executives, popularly-elected presidents, and dominant executives on the extent of decline in liberal democracy.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

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Marisa Kellam
Marisa Kellam is associate professor of political science at Waseda University (Tokyo, Japan). Her research focuses on the quality of democracy in Latin America. In her work, she links institutional analysis to governance outcomes within three lines of inquiry: (1) political parties and coalitional politics, (2) media freedom and democratic accountability, and (3) populism and democratic backsliding. She has published her research in peer-reviewed journals such as the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, Party Politics, Electoral Studies, and Political Communication. After earning a Ph.D. in political science from UCLA, she spent several years as an assistant professor at Texas A&M University. Since 2013, Marisa Kellam has been teaching international and Japanese students in the English-based degree programs of Waseda University’s School of Political Science & Economics.

At this time, in-person attendance is limited to Stanford affiliates only. We continue to welcome our greater community to join virtually via Zoom.

Didi Kuo

Online, via Zoom

Encina Hall

616 Jane Stanford Way

Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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CDDRL Visiting Scholar, 2021-23
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Marisa Kellam researches the quality of democracy with a focus on Latin America and a growing interest in East Asia. Her research links institutional analysis to various governance outcomes in democracies along three lines of inquiry: political parties and coalitional politics; mass electoral behavior and party system change; and democratic accountability and media freedom. She has published her research in various peer-reviewed journals, including The British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, Party Politics, Electoral Studies, and Political Communication. Originally from Santa Rosa, California, Marisa Kellam earned her Ph.D. in political science from UCLA and spent several years as an assistant professor at Texas A&M University. Since 2013, she has been Associate Professor at Waseda University in Tokyo, Japan, where she also served as Director of the English-based degree programs for the School of Political Science & Economics. Currently she is a steering committee member for the V-Dem Regional Center for East Asia.

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