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Marco is an undergraduate student at Stanford studying Political Science and Economics. His background lies in historical studies of nationalism, racism, and state-building in Southeast Asia. His current research interests lie at the intersection between international political economy and comparative democratic resilience across the Global South. He concurrently serves as a Research Assistant for the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL) at APARC. In his spare time, he enjoys jazz, listening to podcasts, and learning to bake.

CDDRL Undergraduate Communications Assistant, 2024-25
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CDDRL seminar with James Fearon - A Theory of Elite-initiated Democratization, Illustrated With the Case of Myanmar

Around half of democratic transitions are "top-down" in the sense that the autocrats write the constitution that governs post-transition democracy (Albertus and Menaldo 2015). We analyze a model of elite-driven democratization, illustrating its logic and implications in the case of Myanmar.  In the model, continued dictatorship is costly and inefficient due to the risk of a violent rebellion and, possibly, the increase in aid, trade, and geopolitical support that would follow democratization. But the autocrats fear that fair elections would lead quickly to their marginalization. We argue, contrary to a common suggestion, that paper constitutions that provide veto points for the old elite are not by themselves sufficient protection. Top-down "democratic transitions" are really cases of power-sharing, in which the old elite retains de facto control of rent streams that the opposition cannot unilaterally seize simply by changing laws. As the military's coup threat declines over time, democracy may eventually "consolidate."  If the coup threat declines dramatically and is anticipated to do so, a reversion back to autocracy is possible. We also show how the prospect of increased international aid, trade, and investment makes top-down transitions more likely, though only when post-transition power-sharing is feasible.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

James D. Fearon is Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences, and Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, and a Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies. His research has focused on civil and interstate war. He has also published on international relations theory, democratization, foreign aid and institution building, and post-conflict reconstruction. Fearon is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences (2012) and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (2002), and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. From 2007 to 2010, he was Chair of the Department of Political Science at Stanford. He served as a Senior Adviser in the U.S. Department of Defense in 2021 and 2022, where he worked primarily with the production and implementation team for the 2022 National Defense Strategy.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to Encina E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Hesham Sallam
Hesham Sallam

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

CISAC
Stanford University
Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305-6165

(650) 725-1314
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Theodore and Frances Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences
Professor of Political Science
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James Fearon is the Theodore and Frances Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences and a professor of political science. He is a Senior Fellow at FSI, affiliated with CISAC and CDDRL. His research interests include civil and interstate war, ethnic conflict, the international spread of democracy and the evaluation of foreign aid projects promoting improved governance. Fearon was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2012 and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2002. Some of his current research projects include work on the costs of collective and interpersonal violence, democratization and conflict in Myanmar, nuclear weapons and U.S. foreign policy, and the long-run persistence of armed conflict.

Affiliated faculty at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
Affiliated faculty at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
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James D. Fearon
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Marisa Kellam
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In a workshop hosted jointly by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and the Southeast Asia Program of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center on March 9, 2023, scholars discussed the setbacks and prospects for democracy in Southeast Asia. The workshop included Stanford affiliates, visiting scholars at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and political scientists from several universities and research institutions in Japan, whose visit to Stanford was funded by the Japanese Society for the Promotion of Science.

Democracies in Southeast Asia face challenges found among other democracies around the globe, including pervasive corruption, political polarization, and the spread of disinformation on social media.


These issues were prominent in the workshop presentations and discussions. At one point, APARC visiting scholar Gita Wirwajan used the opportunity to urge Stanford, being in Silicon Valley, to speak louder against the information-degrading effects of social media.

Scholars also discussed the other distinctive and challenging conditions in which democracy, development, and the rule of law must take root in Southeast Asia, including monarchial traditions, religious diversity, and proximity to China. Such topics ranged widely, from Islamic Law in the Indonesian province of Aceh through China-funded infrastructure in Myanmar to the Mindanao conflict in the Philippines.

Waseda University Associate Professor and CDDRL Visiting Scholar Marisa Kellam co-chaired the workshop’s panels and roundtables with APARC’s Southeast Asia Program Director and CDDRL Affiliated Faculty Donald Emmerson. On the panels, Kana Inata (Tokyo Metropolitan University) and Ruosui Zhang (Waseda University) presented papers for discussion by Michael Bennon and Francis Fukuyama (both Stanford). The roundtables featured papers or remarks by Lisandro Claudio (UC Berkeley), Reza Idria (Ar-Raniry State Islamic University), Yuko Kasuya (Keio University), Aya Watanabe (Institute of Developing Economies), and Gita Wirwajan (Ancora Group). Several Stanford students in the Masters of International Policy program attended the workshop and took part in the discussion, and we were pleased to welcome representatives from the Consulate General of both Indonesia and the Philippines as well.

Perspectives from Indonesia and the Philippines


The morning roundtable offered the two Indonesian scholars’ perspectives on democracy, development, and the rule of law in Indonesia. Idria, while acknowledging that Aceh in democratic Indonesia is almost a state inside a state, situated the province within larger socioeconomic and religious contexts. Wirjawan argued that Indonesia’s democracy needs to become meritocratic, which he linked to the need for improved education.

The afternoon roundtable on the Philippines focused on Bongbong Marcos’s victory in the 2022 Philippine presidential election. According to Claudio, Bongbong’s opponent had run on a good governance platform that failed to persuade voters accustomed to the dynastic personalism of Philippine politics. Kasuya augmented Claudio’s account with reference to the disinformation circulating through social media and the disintegration of political parties and other accountability institutions during Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency. Watanabe’s scope included previous Philippine presidents, specifically their efforts to obtain legislative approval of the settlements negotiated to end the Mindanao insurgency.

Understanding Global Trends


In addition to the roundtable discussions on Indonesia and the Philippines, panel presentations at the workshop used Southeast Asian cases to understand global trends. Zhang’s research on the changing fate of the China-invested Myitsone dam project in Myanmar demonstrated that a developing country undergoing semi-democratic political change would not necessarily kowtow to Beijing. Inata compared the power of monarchs and described how monarchies have contributed to autocratization in Southeast Asia.

For Prof. Emmerson, the workshop’s value reflected the crucial and generous role played by Prof. Kellam in organizing the event; the scope and quality of its findings and interpretations; its coverage of an important region that lacks the attention Northeast Asia receives; and the all too rare collaboration that the workshop achieved between differently specialized components of Stanford University.

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Scholars from Asia joined faculty and researchers from Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI) to present research and reflections on various topics and cases from the Southeast Asia region, including the monarchy in politics, peace-making in the Philippines, Chinese infrastructure investments in Myanmar, illiberalism in the Philippines, and Islamic law in Indonesia.

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Workshop on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law in Southeast Asia

This workshop brings together scholars from Asia and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University to discuss the state of democracy, development, and the rule of law in Southeast Asia. Through these broad lenses, the participants will present research and reflections on various topics and cases from the region, including the monarchy in politics, peace-making in the Philippines, Chinese infrastructure investments in Myanmar, illiberalism in the Philippines, and Islamic law in Indonesia.

Event Co-Chairs:

Marisa Kellam
Associate Professor, Waseda University and Visiting Scholar at CDDRL

Donald K. Emmerson
Director, Southeast Asia Program of Shorenstein APARC

9:30 – 10:00 AM — Coffee and Introductions

10:00 – 10:45 AM — Political and Social Risks of the BRI: China’s overseas infrastructure investment projects in Myanmar
Presenter: Ruosui Zhang, Ph.D. Candidate, Waseda University
Discussant: Mike Bennon, Research Scholar, Global Infrastructure Policy Research Initiative at CDDRL, Stanford University

Developing countries are not passive takers of China’s loans and investments, an oft-overlooked aspect in the political economy of China’s foreign investment. Tracing the changing fate of the Myitsone dam in Myanmar, this presentation will argue that an increase in accountability from military dictatorship to semi-democracy explains the suspension of the project by the Myanmar government in 2011. It will also argue that the change in the leadership’s ideology from the quasi-civilian to a civilian government explains why the project did not encounter further setbacks even though the accountability level increases in Myanmar in 2016. 

10:45 – 11:30 AM — Roundtable discussion on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law in Indonesia
Reza Idria, Assistant Professor, Ar-Raniry State Islamic University
Gita Wirjawan, Chairman, Ancora Group

This roundtable discussion will offer the perspectives of renowned Indonesia scholars on democracy, development and the rule of law in their country. In particular, Reza Idria will discuss the social and political responses to Sharia in Aech, and its broader implications for the rule of law in Indonesia. Gita Wira will speak about prospects and challenges for Indonesian democracy and development, including his expectations for the outcome and impact of elections next year.

11:30 AM – 12:30 PM — Lunch and Informal Discussion 

12:30 – 1:15 PM — Monarchy and Autocratization: Cases in Southeast Asia
Presenter: Kana Inata, Associate Professor, Tokyo Metropolitan University
Discussant: Francis Fukuyama, Professor and Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at CDDRL, Stanford University

Focusing on Southeast Asian monarchies, this presentation will highlight monarchs’ involvement in processes of autocratization in the region. The talk will contend that the monarchy intervenes directly as an autocratizer in Malaysia and Brunei, whereas the monarchy is used indirectly to justify autocratization by government actors in Thailand and Cambodia. In making these claims, the talk will clarify the boundaries between monarch’s de jure and de facto interventions in politics and will consider monarchical accountability. 

1:15 – 2:30 PM — Roundtable discussion on Democracy and the Rule of Law in the Philippines
Aya Watanabe (Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies-JETRO)
Lisandro Claudio (Associate Professor, UC Berkeley)
Yuko Kasuya (Professor, Keio University)

This discussion will consider the nature of democracy and its impact on the rule of law in the Philippines. Aya Watanabe will argue that the electoral prospects of politicians have complicated peace-making in the Mindanao conflict given that the negotiated settlements must be approved and implemented within the democratic political system. Both Lisandro Claudio and Yuko Kasuya will offer reflections on the May 2022 Philippine presidential election, and the pervasiveness of illiberalism, corruption, and violence in Philippine democracy more generally.

2:30 – 3:00 PM — Reflections 
Co-chairs and participants
 

Philippines Conference Room
Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central, C330
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

This event is open to Stanford affiliates and invited guests only.

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Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Chelsea is the Office Coordinator and Faculty Assistant at CDDRL. She graduated with a dual degree in Cognitive Science and Psychology with a quantitative emphasis from the University of California, Davis. Chelsea grew up in the Bay Area and its diversity has influenced the music, shows, and food she loves. 

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This week we launched the long-awaited 17th year of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law's Draper Hills Summer Fellowship Program. Founded in 2005 with generous support from Bill and Phyllis Draper and Ingrid von Mangoldt Hills, Draper Hills is an executive training program for world leaders striving to promote democracy. For the next two weeks, Fellows will participate in workshops led by an interdisciplinary team of faculty to study new theories and approaches to democratic development.

Fellows in the class of 2021 were selected from among thousands of applicants for their ground-breaking work to defend democracy. These 34 leaders drawn from 30 countries around the world are pioneering new approaches and models to advance social and political change in some of the most challenging global contexts. Representing business, government, and the nonprofit sector, our fellows are working on the frontlines of democratic change to combat the global rise of authoritarianism and populism. In countries moving towards democracy, our fellows are working to institutionalize new systems and practices to support democratic transitions.

An Unconventional Year


Traditionally, Fellows would travel from their home countries to the U.S. and spend three weeks on campus at Stanford learning together. However, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the program is currently taking place virtually for the first time (for the same reasons, the program did not run in 2020). The shift to online programming posed a number of logistical obstacles – from what time to run virtual sessions when participants span over a dozen time zones, to how to foster the sense of belonging and personal connections that occur more naturally with in-person settings.

To begin addressing the latter, Fellows were sent welcome packages to build excitement and foster community both within the program and Stanford. Upon receiving hers, Aisha Yesufu of Nigeria shared "I am so excited at the different people I'll be meeting from all over the world, and also learning from different people, lecturers, professors... It's going to be quite interesting and, for me, that is what I am most looking forward to," along with the video below:

"One of the most important things I have ever been involved with."


Opening against the backdrop of the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in Afghanistan, the importance of the Draper Hills program and the need to promote democratic change is now more evident than ever.

The inaugural session for the 2021 cohort began with Francis Fukuyama introducing the fellows to several of the esteemed faculty they will be learning from over the next two weeks, including Larry Diamond, Erik Jensen, and Michael McFaul. McFaul shared that not only did he found the program, but "it is one of the most important things I have ever been involved with." Jensen later added that "participating in this program is one of the great pleasures I have every year."

More to Come


Throughout the next two weeks, our Draper Hills Fellows will examine the political development, democratic transitions, and the relationship of law to economic development, public administration, administrative law, transitional justice, food security, and global health policy, among others. The group is eager to learn, and we look forward to seeing the many great things the training they receive here will enable them to do in their home countries and beyond.

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For the next two weeks, Fellows will participate in workshops led by an interdisciplinary team of faculty to study new theories and approaches to democratic development.

Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Michael Bennon is a Research Scholar at CDDRL for the Global Infrastructure Policy Research Initiative. Michael's research interests include infrastructure policy, project finance, public-private partnerships and institutional design in the infrastructure sector. Michael also teaches Global Project Finance to graduate students at Stanford. Prior to Stanford, Michael served as a Captain in the US Army and US Army Corps of Engineers for five years, leading Engineer units, managing projects, and planning for infrastructure development in the United States, Iraq, Afghanistan and Thailand. 

Program Manager, Global Infrastructure Policy Research Initiative
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Armed conflict continues its brutal march in Syria, Yemen, Southeast Asia and South Sudan — to name a few of the international hotspots that contributed to an 11% increase in political violence around the world in 2018.

Nearly 10 million Yemenis are facing famine this year; Syria was the deadliest place on earth for civilians last year, with more than 7,100 fatalities.

Many of those killed — and even more who face starvation — are children. And that’s when Stanford professor of pediatrics Paul Wise finds it hard to stand on the sidelines. Wise, who has traveled to Guatemala annually for the last 40 years to treat children in rural communities, also travels to the frontlines of global calamities.

As part of a small team of physicians, Wise went to Mosul, the northern city in Iraq once controlled by ISIS, in 2017 to evaluate the World Health Organization-led system to treat civilians injured in the brutal battle for the city. 

Working with colleagues at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Wise has collaborated with the U.S. military, non-governmental organizations and the United Nations on the interaction of humanitarian and security challenges.

So, it should come as no surprise that the American Academy of Arts & Sciences — of which he is a member — recently appointed him and two other global health experts to lead a new initiative to develop new strategies to protect civilians, health care and cultural heritage in areas of extreme violence. 

The initiative, Rethinking the Humanitarian Health Response to Violence Conflict, will be a collaboration among political scientists, international human rights lawyers, physicians, academics and even the curators of major museums. They will develop strategies to prevent civilian harm and deliver critical health services in areas plagued by violent conflict, most notably in the Middle East, central and north Africa and parts of Asia. 

“We also want to address the humanitarian and protective frameworks that operate in areas that are extremely violent but wouldn’t necessarily be defined as being in armed conflict, like in the northern triangle of Central America. The human toll in these areas is at least as great as some of these other more traditionally defined areas,” Wise said.

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Another of those areas is Myanmar, where nearly 700,000 ethnic Rohingya Muslims have fled to neighboring Bangladesh amid sectarian violence in the northern Rakhine province, in what the United Nations calls a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing.”

Rethinking is also headed up by global health expert Jaime Sepulvedaof the University of California, San Francisco, and Jennifer M. Welsh, a global governance and security expert at   McGill University in Canada. Their work will result in a series of publications, blog posts, videos, podcasts and op-eds as a means to reach not only a general audience but also local and field-based humanitarian health providers. The initiative will also seek the engagement of those directly victimized by violence in the areas of greatest concern. 

“We will come up with new strategies to protect civilians and deal with their needs when protection fails in the real world,” Wise said. “The goal is to make a difference in the real world. That’s a much more ambitious goal of course, but it’s the only goal that’s worthy of this kind of initiative.” 

A professor of pediatrics in the Medical School and core faculty member at Stanford Health Policy, Wise is also appointed in several international security programs at Stanford, including the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law,and the Center for International Security and Cooperation,and is a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

Wise said he is particularly excited about the prospect of working with those who curate and protect cultural heritage sites and objects.

“The other thing about the American Academy of Arts & Sciences is that we are not just academics, but artists, musicians, novelists — and we expect to take full advantage of breaking out into these disciplines that aren’t normally part of these conversations,” Wise said.

When fire nearly toppled Notre Dame in Paris three months ago, Parisians gathered near the French Gothic cathedral to pray and to sing. When al-Qaida seized control of the North African country of Mali in 2012, a band of librarians undertook a dangerous mission to protect 350,000 centuries-old Arabic texts and smuggled them out of the library in Timbuktu.

At a recent meeting at the Getty Museum in Los Angeles, Wise met with museum directors, archeologists and political scientists about the preservation of cultural heritage.

“It was very clear that there were enormous areas of overlap between the efforts to protect cultural heritage and the efforts to protect people,” he said. “They’re just pragmatically connected because when you start destroying things of cultural importance, it tends to be associated ultimately with atrocities against people.”

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Please join the Honorable BN Srikrishna, Chairman of the Group of Experts on Data Protection in India & former Justice of the Supreme Court of India, as he discusses the drafting of India's first ever data protection framework, submitted to the Indian government on July 27, 2018.

 

Hosted by Stanford's Global Digital Policy Incubator, the Center for Internet and Society, the Center for International Security and Cooperation , and the Handa Center for Human rights and International Justice

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