Stanford University

Democracy Against the Odds

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Abstract:
 
A number of countries have emerged as stable (though minimalist) democracies despite low levels of modernization, lack of democratic neighboring countries and other factors consistently related to democratic stability in the literature. Strikingly many cases of democratization can be accounted for by these mainstream theories of democratization. In this perspective, it is all the more important to understand how some cases have beaten the odds and established and maintained at least an electoral democracy within unfavorable structural settings. Existing studies of deviant democracies are short of explanations. A growing literature suggests that a number of damaging factors have been absent in these countries. However, it offers no actual positive explanation of what drives this surprising process of change. Seeberg will present an overview of deviant democracies and discuss ways to understand the emergence and endurance of democracy in these cases. 

Michael Aagaard Seeberg is a CDDRL visiting researcher in winter and spring 2012, while researching on his PhD project titled “Democracy Against the Odds”. He expects to obtain his PhD from Aarhus University, Denmark in the fall 2013.

Speaker Bio:

Michael Seeberg’s PhD project seek to understand the emergence of stable (though minimalist) democracy in a number of countries despite low levels of modernization, lack of democratic neighboring countries and other factors consistently related to democratic stability in the literature. Cases in point are Ghana, India, Mauritius and Mongolia. The study of deviant democracies can give us some leverage in understanding the determinants of democracy – determinants that have not really been uncovered yet. Current accounts stress the absence of ‘damaging factors’ as decisive for the successful emergence of democracy. With the project, Michael Seeberg hope to refine existing explanations of democratization while, on the other hand identify the positive drivers that also contributed to new stable democracies. The overall aim is to build a foundation for a better understanding of why some regime changes result in stable democracies whereas others are stuck as hybrid regimes or return to the set of outright autocracies.

Prior to his PhD studies, Michael Seeberg has been a visiting scholar at the University of Washington, Seattle, assistant attaché at the Danish Mission to the United Nations in New York, and a visiting scholar at the Danish Institute for International Studies in Copenhagen, Denmark. He holds an MSc in political science from Aarhus University. Concurrently with his PhD studies, Michael Seeberg is engaged in the Scouts in Denmark, where he is a member of the executive board at the YMCA Scouts, and member of the Steering Committee for the Project supporting Guiding and Scouting in Eastern and Central Europe.

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Michael A. Seeberg

Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Visiting Researcher
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Michael Aagaard Seeberg is a CDDRL visiting researcher in winter and spring 2012, while researching on his PhD project titled “Democracy Against the Odds”. He expects to obtain his PhD from Aarhus University, Denmark in the fall 2013.

Michael Seeberg’s PhD project seek to understand the emergence of stable (though minimalist) democracy in a number of countries despite low levels of modernization, lack of democratic neighboring countries and other factors consistently related to democratic stability in the literature. Cases in point are Ghana, India, Mauritius and Mongolia. The study of deviant democracies can give us some leverage in understanding the determinants of democracy – determinants that have not really been uncovered yet. Current accounts stress the absence of ‘damaging factors’ as decisive for the successful emergence of democracy. With the project, Michael Seeberg hope to refine existing explanations of democratization while, on the other hand identify the positive drivers that also contributed to new stable democracies. The overall aim is to build a foundation for a better understanding of why some regime changes result in stable democracies whereas others are stuck as hybrid regimes or return to the set of outright autocracies.

Prior to his PhD studies, Michael Seeberg has been a visiting scholar at the University of Washington, Seattle, assistant attaché at the Danish Mission to the United Nations in New York, and a visiting scholar at the Danish Institute for International Studies in Copenhagen, Denmark. He holds an MSc in political science from Aarhus University. Concurrently with his PhD studies, Michael Seeberg is engaged in the Scouts in Denmark, where he is a member of the executive board at the YMCA Scouts, and member of the Steering Committee for the Project supporting Guiding and Scouting in Eastern and Central Europe.

 

Publications

  • "Mongolian Miracles and Central Asian Disappointments: Nomadic Culture, Clan Politics and the 16. Soviet Republic”, Politica, 2009, 41(3): 315-330.

Michael A. Seeberg Visiting Researcher 2011-2012 Speaker CDDRL
Seminars

Politics by Other Means: International Law in the Political Contest over Taiwan’s Status and Cross-Strait Relations

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Abstract:

On both sides of the Taiwan Strait and on both sides of Taiwan’s partisan divide, international legal concepts—the criteria for statehood, other factors that matter for international status (including democratic politics and human rights), standards for and rights of self-determination and secession—have been key weapons in the political struggle over Taiwan’s international stature and security and the nature and trajectory of cross-Strait relations.  Rooted in steps taken during the early days of China’s Reform Era, this pattern of politics developed dramatically during the Lee Tenghui and Chen Shui-bian presidencies on Taiwan and has taken new turns since Hu Jintao shifted Beijing’s cross-Strait policies and Ma Ying-jeou came to power in Taiwan.  The prospect of Ma’s second term and a leadership transition on the Mainland raise new questions about future trends in this unusually international law-focused politics.

 

Speaker Bio:

Jacques deLisle is the Stephen A. Cozen Professor of Law, professor of political science, and associate director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.  His writings on Taiwan’s politics and international status, cross-Strait relations, China’s approach to international law, and domestic legal reform and its challenges in China appear in law reviews, international affairs journals, policy commentaries, and other media.

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Jacques deLisle Professor of Law and Political Science Speaker the University of Pennsylvania and Director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute
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Insider Activists: Personal Connections and Political Action in China

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Abstract:

"Insider Activists: Personal Connections and Political Action in China", co-authored by Lily Tsai and Yiqing Xu, PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science at MIT.

This project finds that in both rural and urban China, political "insiders" are actually more likely to make complaints about the government to local officials, including complaints about public goods provision, than political outsiders. We argue that personal connections to government officials may constitute an important resource for political action in nondemocratic systems such as China by providing information about how to participate effectively and protection against reprisal for making complaints.

 

About the speaker:

Lily L. Tsai is an Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT. Her research focuses on issues of accountability, governance, and political participation in developing countries with a particular emphasis on Chinese politics. Her book, Accountability Without Democracy: Solidary Groups and Public Goods Provision in Rural China, was published in Cambridge University's Studies on Comparative Politics and received the 2007-08 Dogan Award from the Society of Comparative Research for the best book published in the field of comparative research. Tsai has also published articles in The American Political Science Review, Studies in Comparative International Development, The China Quarterly, and The China Journal. Tsai is a graduate of Stanford University, where she graduated with honors and distinction in English literature and international relations. She received a M.A. in political science from the University of California, Berkeley, and a Ph.D. in government from Harvard University in 2004. 

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Lily Tsai Associate Professor of Political Science Speaker MIT

Francis Fukuyama

Encina Hall, C148
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305

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Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy
Research Affiliate at The Europe Center
Professor by Courtesy, Department of Political Science
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Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). He is also Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and a professor (by courtesy) of Political Science.

Dr. Fukuyama has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man, has appeared in over twenty foreign editions. His book In the Realm of the Last Man: A Memoir will be published in fall 2026.

Francis Fukuyama received his B.A. from Cornell University in classics, and his Ph.D. from Harvard in Political Science. He was a member of the Political Science Department of the RAND Corporation, and of the Policy Planning Staff of the US Department of State. From 1996-2000 he was Omer L. and Nancy Hirst Professor of Public Policy at the School of Public Policy at George Mason University, and from 2001-2010 he was Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. He served as a member of the President’s Council on Bioethics from 2001-2004. He is editor-in-chief of American Purpose, an online journal.

Dr. Fukuyama holds honorary doctorates from Connecticut College, Doane College, Doshisha University (Japan), Kansai University (Japan), Aarhus University (Denmark), the Pardee Rand Graduate School, and Adam Mickiewicz University (Poland). He is a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Rand Corporation, the Board of Trustees of Freedom House, and the Board of the Volcker Alliance. He is a fellow of the National Academy for Public Administration, a member of the American Political Science Association, and of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is married to Laura Holmgren and has three children.

(October 2025)

Global Populisms

A new project examining the global surge in populist movements and what it means for established democratic rules and institutions.
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Francis Fukuyama Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow Moderator FSI
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How the Public Views Democracy and its Competitors in East Asia: Taiwan in Comparative Perspective

On May 25-26, the Taiwan Democracy Project will hold its seventh annual conference on "How the Public Views Democracy and its Competitors in East Asia: Taiwan in Comparative Perspective." The conference, co-sponsored by the Program for East Asia Democratic Studies at National Taiwan University, brings together leading political scientists from Taiwan and social scientists from a number of other Asian countries to examine the levels, trends, and causal determinants of support for democracy in Taiwan and throughout East Asia. The papers analyze data from the recently completed third wave of the Asian Barometer Survey. Discussants will include leading scholars of comparative politics and comparative public opinion globally.

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Bureaucratic Incentives in China and the Implications for Governance

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Abstract:
 
Yuen Yuen Ang will present her research on an unorthodox structure of bureaucracy evolved in local China – diverging from the “Weberian” model – where public agents, in firm-liked fashion, receive highly variant compensation pegged to economic performance. Even though petty rents extraction by local agencies is state-sanctioned and rewarding to local bureaucrats in the short term, it is ultimately local development that raises public compensation over the long term. Drawing on the Chinese case, Ang will discuss broader implications of her study for rethinking what good governance consists of; how public bureaucracies are supposed to be incentivized and organized; and “second best” paths to state reform.
 
About the speaker:
 
Yuen Yuen Ang joined the Political Science Department at the University of Michigan Ann Arbor in 2011. Prior to joining Michigan, she taught at Columbia University School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA). She received her Ph.D in Political Science from Stanford University. She studies institutions and political economy of development with a focus on contemporary China. Her current book project examines why China has developed under highly interventionist local states despite a seemingly corrupt and flawed public administration. Her research has been supported by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation/American Council of Learned Societies and Chiang Ching Kuo Foundation. Ang has done field research in Southern, Northern, and Western provinces of China. She has interviewed over 250 local bureaucrats, covering over 20 sectors of government. 
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Yuen Yuen Ang Assistant Professor Speaker the University of Michigan Ann Arbor

Francis Fukuyama

Encina Hall, C148
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305

0
Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy
Research Affiliate at The Europe Center
Professor by Courtesy, Department of Political Science
yff-2021-14290_6500x4500_square.jpg

Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). He is also Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and a professor (by courtesy) of Political Science.

Dr. Fukuyama has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man, has appeared in over twenty foreign editions. His book In the Realm of the Last Man: A Memoir will be published in fall 2026.

Francis Fukuyama received his B.A. from Cornell University in classics, and his Ph.D. from Harvard in Political Science. He was a member of the Political Science Department of the RAND Corporation, and of the Policy Planning Staff of the US Department of State. From 1996-2000 he was Omer L. and Nancy Hirst Professor of Public Policy at the School of Public Policy at George Mason University, and from 2001-2010 he was Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. He served as a member of the President’s Council on Bioethics from 2001-2004. He is editor-in-chief of American Purpose, an online journal.

Dr. Fukuyama holds honorary doctorates from Connecticut College, Doane College, Doshisha University (Japan), Kansai University (Japan), Aarhus University (Denmark), the Pardee Rand Graduate School, and Adam Mickiewicz University (Poland). He is a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Rand Corporation, the Board of Trustees of Freedom House, and the Board of the Volcker Alliance. He is a fellow of the National Academy for Public Administration, a member of the American Political Science Association, and of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is married to Laura Holmgren and has three children.

(October 2025)

Global Populisms

A new project examining the global surge in populist movements and what it means for established democratic rules and institutions.
Read More
CV
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Francis Fukuyama Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow Moderator CDDRL
Seminars

The 2012 Chief Executive Election: A Turning Point in Hong Kong's Democratization?

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Speaker Bio:

Professor James T.H. Tang is Dean and Professor of Political Science, School of Social Sciences, Singapore Management University (SMU). He is a specialist in international relations with special reference to China/Hong Kong and the Asia-Pacific region. Prior to joining SMU he was Professor in the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong (HKU). A graduate of HKU, he obtained his M.Phil in International Relations at Cambridge University, and Ph.D. from the London School of Economics and Political Science. Professor Tang began his academic career at the National University of Singapore in 1988 where he had his first full-time academic appointment. He joined HKU in 1991 and served as Head of the Department of Politics and Public Administration (1999-2002), Dean of Social Sciences (2002-2006), and founding director of the Master of International and Public Affairs programme. Professor Tang also held visiting appointments at leading universities in China, the UK, and the US and was a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. (2005-06). Professor Tang has published extensively in his field and serves on the editorial boards of a number of academic journals including Asian Politics and Policy, Journal of East Asian Studies, Pacific Review, Political Science and International Affairs of the Asia-Pacific. He is currently working on a project about the implications of the rise of China for international relations theory and regional governance in East Asia.

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James T. H. Tang Dean and Professor of Political Science, School of Social Sciences Speaker Singapore Management University (SMU)
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Stanford's Fukuyama launches new project to measure governance

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Measuring the quality of governance is a challenge for social scientists trying to assess a country’s ability to deliver public services to its citizens. Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute, recognized that many of the current ways to assess good governance are too general and do not account for the variations that occur within complex societies such as China or the United States. Fukuyama has also realized that democracy is not always a necessary ingredient for good governance and in some cases authoritarian countries govern more effectively than their democratic counterparts.

The Governance Project was launched in January 2012 at FSI’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law to engage scholars around the world in the exercise of evaluating the quality of state institutions and government effectiveness. Over the next year, workshops at Stanford and in China will bring governance experts together to showcase the ongoing work in this field and contribute original scholarship to a working paper series. Case studies of China and the United States will conceptualize and measure state performance in the world’s largest economies, comparing and contrasting both models to better understand the inner-workings of governance.    

 

 

 

 

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Sizing Up Taiwan's 2012 Election

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Abstract:

One of Taiwan's leading political scientists and most widely quoted authorities on Taiwan politics and cross-Strait relations, Professor Chu will address five issues in his talk:

   First, how should we interpret the outcome of the January election and the nature and extent of President Ma's renewed mandate?

   Second, to what extent has the 2012 election enhanced the overall quality of Taiwan's democracy?

   Third, what can we expect in terms of President Ma's domestic agenda for the next four years?

   Fourth, how much further and faster can the warming of cross-Strait relations proceed during President Ma's second term?

   Fifth, what are the challenges and opportunities for the US-Taiwan relationship in the coming year?

 Speaker Bio:

Yun-han Chu is Distinguished Research Fellow of the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica and Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University. He also serves concurrently as President of Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation for International Scholarly Exchange. Professor Chu joined the faculty of National Taiwan University in 1987. He was a visiting associate professor at Columbia University in 1990-1991 and has held a visiting professorship at Peking University since 2007. Professor Chu specializes in politics of Greater China, East Asian political economy, international political economy, and democratization. He is the Coordinator of Asian Barometer Survey, a regional network of survey on democracy, governance and development covering more than seventeen Asian countries. He currently serves on the editorial board of Pacific Affairs, International Studies Perspective, China Review, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of East Asian Studies and Journal of Democracy. He is the author, co-author, editor or co-editor of thirteen books. Among his recent English publications are Consolidating Third-Wave Democracies (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997), China Under Jiang Zemin (Lynne Reinner, 2000), The New Chinese Leadership: Challenges and Opportunities after the 16th Party Congress (Cambridge University Press 2004) and How East Asians View Democracy (Columbia University Press, 2008).

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Yun-han Chu Distinguished Research Fellow at Academia Sinica; Professor of Political Science Speaker National Taiwan University
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Patterns of Elderly Life Expectancy in Three Chinese Cities: Hong Kong, Shanghai and Taipei

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Life expectancy at aged 65 is remarkably similar in the three Chinese cities of Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Taipei, even though the cities differ in levels of socioeconomic development, health systems, and other factors. Edward Jow-Ching Tu will discuss research that aims to understand this phenomenon. Despite unprecedented increases in life expectancy and attainment of similar current levels of life expectancy, the cities differ in the contributions of changes in major causes of death to the improvements in life expectancy among the elderly. Tu and colleagues have explored several possible determinants of these different patterns and trends in the three cities, including socioeconomic development, health service delivery systems, cause-of-death classification systems, and competing risks from cardiovascular disease and other diseases. Their analysis suggests that the effect of equity of health service delivery has become more important over time.

Edward Jow-Ching Tu is a senior lecturer of demography in the Division of Social Science at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. His work is focused on the impact of fertility, mortality, and migration on socio-economic changes in East Asia countries with special emphasis on nations experiencing a transition from planned economy to market economy; on causes and impacts of mortality changes and health transition on aging societies; and on the causes of lowest-low fertility in many East Asia countries. He has several active research projects ongoing in China, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. He holds graduate degress from West Virginia University, the University of Pennsylvania, and the University of Tennessee (Knoxville). Tu has worked extensively in Asia, and has served as an adjunct professor and taught in many universities in China, including Peking University, Peoples University, Nankai Univerity, and Fudan University. He had served as a senior research scientist at the New York State Health Department and as a research fellow (full professor) at the Institute for Social Sciences and Philosophy at Academia Sinica. Tu has also taught at the State University of New York in Albany.

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Edward Jow-Ching Tu Senior Lecturer of Demography at the Division of Social Science Speaker Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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