Venezuela stands at a critical juncture. Following Nicolás Maduro's removal in January 2026, the question facing Venezuelan democratic actors and international partners is no longer whether a transition should occur, but how it could realistically unfold and what risks may undermine it.

This panel discussion focuses on what is arguably the most difficult dimension of any transition: reforming the security sector. Democratic transitions depend critically on the ability to transform coercive institutions so that they operate under civilian authority, respect the rule of law, and provide security to citizens rather than to political elites.

Panelists will assess practical pathways toward democratic governance, highlighting both the opportunities and the blind spots embedded in prevailing transition strategies.

SPEAKERS

• María Ignacia Curiel, Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and Research Affiliate of the Poverty, Violence and Governance Lab at Stanford University
  • Armed political actors and regime survival strategies
     
• Rebecca Hanson, Assistant Professor at the Center for Latin American Studies and the Department of Sociology, Criminology, and Law at the University of Florida
  • Criminal organizations and governance in illicit economies
     
• Harold Trinkunas, Deputy Director and a Senior Research Scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University
  • Security sector reform for democracy
     
• John Polga-Hecimovich, Associate Professor of Political Science at the U.S. Naval Academy
  • State security apparatus — the military, police, and  secret service

• Moderator: Héctor Fuentes, Visiting Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University