What does the election of Pope Leo XIV mean for international politics? While much of the global reaction has focused on his background and theological views, the political implications of a new papacy are also worth considering. FSI Senior Fellow Anna Grzymała-Busse, an expert on religion and politics in Europe, offers her analysis on what this moment might mean for U.S.-Europe relations, the future of populism, and the Vatican’s role in global affairs.

What does the choice of Pope Leo XIV mean for the relationship between the U.S. and the rest of the world, if anything?

Choosing Pope Leo XIV is more of a statement by the Vatican: this was the consensus candidate (some very conservative rivals could never muster similar support). Insofar as he’s commented on American politics, it was to upbraid JD Vance for his stance on immigration and his misunderstanding of the Catholic theology of ordo amoris. It’s important to remember that Pope Leo is not just an American pope, but a Peruvian one as well; he is a Peruvian citizen, served as the bishop of Chiclayo, and spent over three decades in Peru. This will be less of an American papacy than a global one. 

Could this papacy influence how European populist or far-right movements engage with religion in their political messaging? What effect might this have on the transatlantic political discourse?

Since these movements use religion instrumentally – to justify some of their stances – there is little relationship here to Catholic doctrine or the papacy. Francis’s more liberal language had no impact on their rhetoric, rise, or success, and Leo is equally unlikely to have much of an influence. Instead, these movements fuse religion and nationalist/nativist statements, without necessarily engaging theology. 

How might this Pope respond to global conflicts like the war in Ukraine – and what impact could that have on U.S. and European diplomacy?

One criticism of Pope Francis was that he didn’t understand the conflict in Ukraine at all, and instead talked of Ukraine "provoking” the war. Leo will probably take a more sophisticated view of the conflict, especially given the criticism that followed Pope Francis for these statements.