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Kathryn Stoner
Michael A. McFaul
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Vladimir Putin's designation of Dmitri Medvedev as his preferred successor should be more than enough for Medvedev to win the March presidential election in Russia by a landslide. Not surprisingly, he has already pledged to continue his mentor's policies and suggested that Putin become prime minister to ensure his continued involvement in ruling Russia.
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For the last eight years of Vladimir Putin's presidency, friends of mine who either worked
for or were simply sympathetic to the Kremlin have argued at various times that Russia
was a "managed" democracy, a "sovereign" democracy or an autocracy like China on the
long road to democracy via the autocratic-modernizer path. Western observers of Russian
internal developments, including the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, have
echoed this third argument, emphasizing that Russia's transition from communism to
democracy would be a long one but that it is nonetheless under way.
 
My response has been twofold. First, these "special" forms of democracy are just
camouflage for anti-democratic actions. To be sure, there are many forms of democratic
rule around the world, and the U.S. system, incidentally, is by no means the most
democratic form of government. But all democracies share a few fundamental features,
including first and foremost competition in elections for national office and some
institutional constraints on those in elected office. By these simple measures, Russia is
clearly less democratic today than at the beginning of Putin's time in office.
democracy would be a long one but that it is nonetheless under way.

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Moscow Times
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Michael A. McFaul
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Anders Åslund is specializing on postcommunist economic transformation, especially the Russian and Ukrainian economies. In January 2006, he joined the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, as a senior fellow. From 1994 till 2005, he worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as a senior associate and Director of the Russian and Eurasian Program. He also teaches at Georgetown University. Dr. Åslund has served as a senior economic advisor to the governments of Russia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. He has been a Professor at the Stockholm School of Economics and a Swedish diplomat, serving in Kuwait, Geneva and Moscow. He earned his doctorate from Oxford University.

Dr. Åslund is the author of eight books, including How Capitalism Was Built: The Transformation of the Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2007), Russia’s Capitalist Revolution (Peterson Institute, 2007), Building Capitalism (Cambridge University Press, 2002), How Russia Became a Market Economy (Brookings, 1995), Gorbachev's Struggle for Economic Reform (Cornell University Press, 1989), and Private Enterprise in Eastern Europe: The Non-Agricultural Private Sector in Poland and the GDR, 1945-83 (Macmillan, 1985). He has also edited twelve books, most recently, Europe After Enlargement, and he has published widely, including in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, National Interest, New York Times, Washington Post, Financial Times, and Wall Street Journal.

At present, Dr. Åslund is writing a book about how Ukraine became a market economy.

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Anders Aslund Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, Professor Speaker Georgetown University
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Philip G. Roeder (Ph. D. Harvard University, 1978) is professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego. A specialist on the politics of the Soviet successor states, Roeder has focused his recent research on the design of political institutions for countries torn apart by secessionist movements. He is the author of Where Nation-States Come From: Institutional Change in the Age of Nationalism (Princeton) and Red Sunset: The Failure of Soviet Politics (Princeton). He is the co-author of Postcommunism and the Theory of Democracy (Princeton) and co-editor of Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy After Civil Wars (Cornell). His articles have appeared in such journals as the American Political Science Review, World Politics, and International Studies Quarterly. He is currently working on two longer-term projects:

  1. Alternatives to Independence (What are the consequences of various institutional arrangements designed to avoid granting independence to secessionists?) and
  2. The Tenacity of the Nation-State (Why do states almost never relinquish sovereignty willingly?)

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Philip Roeder Professor of Political Science Speaker University of California, San Diego
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The United States and the European Union spend roughly $1.5 billion per year on democracy promotion, but how effective are such external efforts? As the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine demonstrates, for such efforts to succeed, local actors must want democratic change; foreign attempts to "export" democracy are likely to fail in the absence of domestic consumers. In the Ukraine case, external assistance played a direct, causal role in restricting some aspects of President Leonid Kuchma's power while increasing some aspects of the opposition's power.

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International Security
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Michael A. McFaul
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Kathryn Stoner
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Kathryn Stoner, associate director for research at CDDRL, is the author of the Russia chapter in Countries at the Crossroads, an annual survey of government performance in 30 strategically important countries worldwide. In it, she writes on the decline in the democratic character of governance in Russia since 2005, as well as legislation restricting the work of nongovernmental organizations and the ability of political parties to register and participate in elections.
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Amin Tarzi is the inaugural Director of Middle East Studies at the Marine Corps University in Quantico, Virginia. Previously Dr. Tarzi was with RFE/RL's Regional Analysis team focusing on Afghanistan and Pakistan. While working at RFE/RL, Dr. Tarzi also taught courses in political Islam, cultural intelligence, terrorist organizations and similar topics at the Washington-based Center for Advanced Defense Studies. Prior to joining RFE/RL, Dr. Tarzi worked as Senior Research Associate for the Middle East at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies where his primary research emphasis was Iran and its missile and nuclear developments and policies. At the Monterey Institute, Dr. Tarzi also taught a graduate seminar on Middle East security policies and threat perceptions. His work experience includes the post of Political Advisor to the Saudi Arabian Mission at the United Nations where attended the informal "Friends of Afghanistan" group which included Iran, Pakistan, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia and United States. The informal group later gave way to the formal Six-Plus-Two structure. He has also held the position of Researcher/Analyst on Iranian affairs at the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research in Abu Dhabi. For a year in 1992, after the fall of the communist regime in Kabul, Dr. Tarzi served as a diplomat at the Afghan Mission to the UN.

Tarzi earned his Ph.D. and M.A. degrees from the Department of Middle East Studies at New York University. Tarzi's dissertation, entitled The Judicial State: Evolution and Centralization of the Courts in Afghanistan, 1883-1896 is under consideration for publication by Harvard Law School's Islamic Legal Studies Program. Dr. Tarzi and Professor Robert D. Crews of Stanford University have co-edited a volume entitled Taliban and the Crisis in Afghanistan, to be released in February 2008 by Harvard University Press.

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Amin Tarzi Director of Middle East Studies Speaker Marine Corps University.
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Lilia Shevtsova co-chairs the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Project, dividing her time between the Carnegie offices in Washington, D.C. and Moscow.

Before joining the Endowment, she was deputy director of the Moscow Institute of International Economic and Political Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and director of the Center of Political Studies in Moscow. She has been a visiting professor at the University of California at Berkeley and at Cornell University, and a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Ms. Shevtsova is a member of the Council of the Russian Political Science Association; serves on the editorial boards of American Interest, Journal of Democracy, Pro et Contra and Demokratizatsiya.

Lilia Shevtsova is also professor of political science at the Moscow State Institute of International Affairs of the MFA of Russia; leading researcher at The Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatam House, Great Britain); member of the Executive Board of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (Great Britain); member of the Advisory Board of the Women in International Security organization; associate with the Eurasia Program of the Social Science Research Council; member of the Board of the Institute for Human Sciences at Boston University.

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CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Visiting Scholar (Uzbekistan) 2007-2009
Nozima_website.jpg

Nozima Kamalova, a human rights defender and lawyer, is the director of the Public Defense Office of the Tashkent Board of Lawyers and the founding chair of the Legal Aid Society of Uzbekistan, a nongovernmental organization that works with international human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, to safeguard and promote the rule of law. Kamalova has been instrumental in the revision of several Uzbek laws related to torture and human rights, and her lobbying activities have influenced much policy and legislation adopted both internationally and in Uzbekistan. She has served as a chief consultant to agencies of the United Nations, and in since 2002, she submitted a number of alternative reports to the United Nation's Committees on human rights violations and concerning the use of torture in her country.

In 2005, Kamalova was awarded the Chevening Fellowship by the United Kingdom's Foreign and Commonwealth Office. In 2003, she completed an advanced course on human rights in Poland at the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights, and in 1999, she was an International Research and Exchanges Board (IREX) Fellow. She holds a diploma with highest honors in law from Tashkent State University.

During her fellowship at CDDRL (2007-09), Kamalova continued her research on how Western antiterrorism policies limit civil liberties and freedoms in less-developed, transitional countries. She studied the impact of the war against terrorism on authoritarian countries, with Uzbekistan as an example, and will develop recommendations for legislation and practice.

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C139c
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-2489 (650) 724-2996
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Visiting Scholar 2007-2009
Olena_web.jpg PhD

Olena Nikolayenko is a recepient of the 2007-2009 post-doctoral fellowship from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. Her research interests include comparative democratization, public opinion, social movements, youth, and corruption. In her dissertation, she analyzed political support among the first post-Soviet generation grown up without any direct experience with communism in Russia and Ukraine. She has a PhD from the University of Toronto, Canada.

At CDDRL, she examined why some youth movements are more successful than others in applying methods of nonviolent resistance to mobilize the population in non-democratic regimes. She has recently conducted fieldwork in Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Serbia, and Ukraine.

Selected Publications

  • 2008. "Contextual Effects on Historical Memory: Soviet Nostalgia among Post-Soviet Adolescents." Communist and Post-Communist Studies 41(2): 243-259
  • 2008. "Life-Cycle, Generational and Period Effects on Protest Potential in Yeltsin's Russia." Canadian Journal of Political Science 41(2): 437-460
  • 2007. "The Revolt of the Post-Soviet Generation: Youth Movements in Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine." Comparative Politics 39(2): 169-188
  •  2007. "Web Cartoons in a Closed Society: Animal Farm as an Allegory of Belarus." PS: Political Science and Politics 40(2): 307-310
  • 2004. "Press Freedom during the 1994 and 1999 Presidential Elections in Ukraine: A Reverse Wave?" Europe-Asia Studies 56(5): 661-686
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