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Abstract: Why and how do elite arrangements vary across authoritarian regimes? Why do some arrangements persist, while others are dissolved through coup d’état, failed coup attempts, and extensive purges? Existing political science explanations of authoritarian stability broadly emphasize three factors: individual members’ attributes, material payoffs, and formal institutions. Yet historians and country experts emphasize the centrality of social and informal ties between actors. I argue that, to understand the variation in the source and extent of coalitional breakdown, scholars must situate the holders of political and military office in their organizational and social context. Authoritarian coalitions differ in systematic ways in their members’ patterns of organizational and social relationships; these different relational configurations have distinct implications for coalitional trajectories. This paper employs original archival and interview evidence to trace the emergence and evolution of authoritarian networks in Iraq and Syria. It demonstrates that the extent of overlap between organizational and social networks explains the type of elite breakdown (and its breadth) over time. 

About the Speaker: Julia Choucair-Vizoso is a joint predoctoral fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) for 2014-2015. She is a doctoral candidate in Political Science at Yale University.

Choucair-Vizoso studies coalitional politics and elite networks in nondemocratic settings. Her dissertation examines how elites organize to enforce authoritarian rule, and how and why these organizational structures evolve. Drawing on network theory and analysis, her study examines ruling coalitions in Iraq and Syria.

Her research has been supported by fellowships from the United States Institute of Peace and Yale University’s MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies. She holds a B.S. in International Politics and an M.A. in Arab Studies from Georgetown University, and was an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

 

This event is sponsored by the Center for International Security and Cooperation, the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law and the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy. 

CISAC Central Conference Room
Encina Hall, 2nd Floor
616 Serra St
Stanford, CA 94305

Julia Choucair-Vizoso Predoctoral Fellow Speaker CISAC/CDDRL
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Qing Gu, team leader for the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Poverty, Equity, and Governance unit in Beijing, China, spoke at CDDRL's Program on Human Rights on November 19, commenting on recent developments on rule of law in China. 

Gu is cautiously optimistic about the slow consolidation of the rule of law in China. Many positive programs have been put into place regarding law development in China, and Gu discussed the political implications that are behind these changes. While it is still a long way from being fully implemented, there has been a renewed focus on the rule of law under Xi Jinping’s leadership. Jinping has even equated the “Chinese Dream” with the “Dream of Constitutionalism.”

However, this has not been without controversy. A similar statement published in the South China Weekend in 2013 led to the newspaper’s recall by the government. Gu argues that this demonstrates that the Party is not yet ready to accept the rule of law.

China’s Fourth Plenum, a key governmental meeting that took place in October 2014, laid out what Gu called “a blueprint” for constitutional reform, rule of law and anti-corruption mechanisms for the judicial system and overall Party leadership. Gu’s hope is that this blueprint will be realized in the near future.

The talk concluded with a series of questions from the audience, ranging from philosophical questions regarding rule of law in China, to pragmatic questions concerning the “Western” media’s role in shaping U.S.-China relations and the impact of the rule of law on legal practitioners in China. In response, Gu pointed out that instituting the rule of law in the country requires deep restructuring of the system's foundations. However, she considers Confucianism to offer a compatible construction of the rule of law that will propel China’s moves to end corruption while still holding on to its rich cultural traditions that embody Chinese identity.

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In a recent interview, Program on Arab Reform and Democracy Associate Director Hesham Sallam weighed in on the recent court ruling that acquitted former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his security aides of the charge of killing protesters during the January 25 uprising in 2011. Tracing recent political developments in the past four years, Sallam sees Egypt's government regressing back to a deeper authoritatrian regime. The interview aired on the show "Shay wa Nana" on WPFW in Washington, D.C., and was featured on Jadilyya, an independent ezine of which Sallam is a co-editor.

 

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Hosni Mubarak, former president of Egypt, addressing the Opening Plenary session of the World Economic Forum on the Middle East 2008 held in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. | Wikipedia Creative Commons/World Economic Forum
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This paper argues that given what we know about the role of law and legal institutions at early stages of development and what we know about the difficulties in creating or reforming public institutions, legal education is one of the most cost-effective areas in which to invest rule of law assistance.  We know enough about the rough sequencing of law and legal institutions at early stages of development to avoid big and stupid mistakes.  We also know enough about the significant challenges in building credible public institutions generally, and legal institutions specifically, to suggest that all-in funding of the building of formal legal institutions at early stages of development is imprudent. Therefore, in light of what we know about sequencing and the challenges of creating or reforming public institutions, legal education competes well compared with other potential rule of law interventions as a prudent and effective investment at earlier stages of development and beyond.  

 

Speaker Bio:

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Erik Jensen is a professor of the practice of law at the Stanford Law School, co-director of the law school's Rule of Law Program, and a CDDRL faculty member. A lawyer trained in Britain and the United States, he has, for the last 20 years, taught, practiced and written about the field of law and development in 20 countries. He has been a Fulbright scholar, a consultant to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, and a representative of The Asia Foundation, where he currently serves as a senior law advisor. His teaching and research activities explore various dimensions of reform aimed at strengthening the rule of law, including the political economy of reform; the connections between legal systems and the economies, polities and societies in which they are situated; and the relationship of Islam to the rule of law.

Jensen lived for 14 years in Asia and was an active participant in policy dialogues in South and Southeast Asia. From 1996 to 1998, he led the governance section of an Asian Development Bank-funded study called "Pakistan 2010," which examined subjects including judicial and legal reform, countering corruption, governance process, civil service reform, decentralization and empowering the country's citizenry. In September 1999, he served as co-team leader of a 35-member consulting team which prepared an extensive report on "Legal and Judicial Reform in Pakistan" for the Asian Development Bank.

Jensen's recent past activities include: completing a research project funded by the Ford Foundation that surveys Pakistani and Indian perceptions of doing business across their acrimonious border; serving as an outside expert in an evaluation of a World Bank project on judicial reform in Venezuela; designing and teaching a research workshop, at Stanford Law School, on judicial reform in developing countries; and serving on the advisory board of two international rule-of-law projects for the World Bank in Mexico and Argentina.

Among his recent publications are "Confronting Misconceptions and Acknowledging Imperfections: A Response To Khaled Abou El Fadl's 'Islam And Democracy'" published in the Fordham International Law Review (2003), and Beyond Common Knowledge: Empirical Approaches to the Rule of Law (Stanford University Press, 2003), which he edited with Thomas C. Heller. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz endorsed Beyond Common Knowledge with the admonition, "No scholar or policymaker should utter the words 'rule of law' without first reading this volume."

Jensen holds a JD degree from the William Mitchell College of Law and an LLM degree from the London School of Economics.

CDDRL
Stanford University
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Lecturer in Law, Stanford Law School
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Erik Jensen holds joint appointments at Stanford Law School and Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. He is Lecturer in Law, Director of the Rule of Law Program at Stanford Law School, an Affiliated Core Faculty at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, and Senior Advisor for Governance and Law at The Asia Foundation. Jensen began his international career as a Fulbright Scholar. He has taught and practiced in the field of law and development for 35 years and has carried out fieldwork in approximately 40 developing countries. He lived in Asia for 14 years. He has led or advised research teams on governance and the rule of law at the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the African Development Bank. Among his numerous publications, Jensen co-edited with Thomas Heller Beyond Common Knowledge: Empirical Approaches to the Rule of Law (Stanford University Press: 2003).

At Stanford, he teaches courses related to state building, development, global poverty and the rule of law. Jensen’s scholarship and fieldwork focuses on bridging theory and practice, and examines connections between law, economy, politics and society. Much of his teaching focuses on experiential learning. In recent years, he has committed considerable effort as faculty director to three student driven projects: the Afghanistan Legal Education Project (ALEP) which started and has developed a law degree-granting programs at the American University of Afghanistan (AUAF), an institution where he also sits on the Board of Trustees; the Iraq Legal Education Initiative at the American University of Iraq in Sulaimani (AUIS); and the Rwanda Law and Development Project at the University of Rwanda. He has also directed projects in Bhutan, Cambodia and Timor Leste. With Paul Brest, he is co-leading the Rule of Non-Law Project, a research project launched in 2015 and funded by the Global Development and Poverty Fund at the Stanford King Center on Global Development. The project examines the use of various work-arounds to the formal legal system by economic actors in developing countries. Eight law faculty members as well as scholars at the Freeman Spogli Institute are participating in the Rule of Non-Law Project.

Director of the Rule of Law Program, Stanford Law School
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Over the past year and more, Taiwan’s political elite has been deadlocked over the question of deepening economic relations with the People’s Republic of China. This controversial issue has led to a standoff between the executive and legislative branches, sparked a frenzy of social activism and a student occupation of the legislature, and contributed to President Ma Ying-jeou’s deep unpopularity.

On October 17-18, the Taiwan Democracy Project at CDDRL, with the generous support of the Taipei Economic and Culture Office, will host its annual conference at Stanford University to examine the politics of polarization in Taiwan.

This conference will bring together specialists from Taiwan, the U.S., and elsewhere in Asia to examine the sources and implications of this political polarization in comparative perspective. It will include a special case study of the Trade in Services Agreement with China that triggered this past year’s protests, as well as a more general overview of the politics of trade liberalization in Taiwan, prospects for Taiwan’s integration into the Trans-Pacific Partnership and other regional trade agreements, and a consideration of the implications for Taiwan’s long-term democratic future.

Conference speakers will include: Chung-shu Wu, the president of the Chung-hwa Institute of Economic Research (CIER) in Taipei; Steve Chan of the University of Colorado; Roselyn Hsueh of Temple University; Yun-han Chu, the president of the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation; and Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.


Panels will examine the following questions:

1. What are the sources and implications of political polarization in Taiwan, and how have these changed in recent years?

2. How does Taiwan’s recent experience compare to political polarization in other countries in Asia (e.g. South Korea, Thailand) and elsewhere (the US)?

3. To what extent does the latest political deadlock in Taiwan reflect concern over the specific issue of trade with the People’s Republic of China, versus a deeper, systemic set of problems with Taiwan’s democracy?

4. How are globalization and trade liberalization reshaping Taiwan’s domestic political economy, and what are the prospects for forging a stronger pro-trade coalition in Taiwan that transcends the current partisan divide?


The conference will take place October 17-18 in the Bechtel Conference Room in Encina Hall at Stanford University. It is free and open to the public. 

 

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Conference Papers

 

How Cross-Strait Trade and Investment Is Affecting Income and Wealth Inequality in Taiwan by Chien-Fu Lin, National Taiwan University

 

Generational Differences in Attitudes towards Cross-Straits Trade by Ping-Yin Kuan, Department of Sociology & International Program in Asia-Pacific Studies, National Chengchi University

 

Change and the Unchanged of Polarized Politics in Taiwan by Min-Hua Huang, National Taiwan University; Center for East Asia Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution

 

Social Media, Social Movements and the Challenge of Democratic Governability by Boyu Chen, National Sun Yat-sen University, Institute of Political Science 

 

Coping with the Challenge of Democratic Governance under Ma Ying-jeou by Yun-han Chu, National Taiwan University

 

Taiwan’s Bid for TPP Membership and the Potential Impact on Taiwan-U.S. Relations by Kwei-Bo Huang, National Chengchi University, Department of Diplomacy

 

In the Wake of the Sunflower Movement: Exploring the Political Consequences of Cross-Strait Integration by Pei-shan Lee, National Chung Cheng University, Political Science Department 

 

The Roots of Thailand’s Political Polarization in Comparative Perspective by Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Chulalongkorn University; The Institute of Security and International Studies

 

The Role of the United States in Cross-Strait Economic Integration by Chen-Dong Tso, National Taiwan University

 

The China Factor and the Generational Shift over National Identity by Mark Weatherall, Taiwan Foundation for Democracy

 

Taiwan’s Strategy for Regional Economic Integration by Chung-Shu Wu, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research

 

Polarized Electorates in South Korea and Taiwan: The Role of Political Trust under Conservative Governments by Hyunji Lee, Institute of Asian Research, University of British Columbia

 

Polarization in Taiwan Politics by Steve Chan, University of Colorado, Boulder

 

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Keynote address by Rt. Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal CFR, Speaker, House of Representatives, National Assembly of Nigeria on the occasion of the Omidyar Network African Democracy and Leadership Forum organized by the Stanford University Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) on the 26th of June, 2014, at the Sheraton Hotel, Abuja.

This address was delivered as part of the conference on 'The Future of Human Rights and Good Governance in Africa' held from June 26 - 28, 2014, in Abuja, Nigeria, which convened many members of the Omidyar Network's Africa Leadership Forum.

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The recently concluded 16th Lok Sabha elections in India was the biggest democratic election in history. It produced the first absolute majority in Indian national elections in thirty years and catapulted BJP and its leader Narendra Modi to power after a sustained presidential style campaign. The election decisively changed the political landscape in India and seemed to reverse a longstanding trend towards fragmentation of Indian politics along lines of region and caste.

What are the underlying dynamics that made this historic vote possible? Can BJP and Modi deliver the economic growth and employment that they promise? What are the necessary reforms and challenges that confront the new government? Will BJP remain focused on development, or will the older cultural and majoritarian agenda of the RSS and its associated organizations re-appear? What is the prospects for India’s multiple minorities in this new dispensation?

These and other questions will be debated by a panel of three Stanford based academics. 

 

Speaker Bios:

Thomas Blom Hansen (Moderator/Speaker) is the Reliance-Dhirubhai Ambani Professor of Anthropology at Stanford University. He is also the director of the Center for South Asia at Stanford. He has worked extensively on Hindu-Muslim relations, communal violence and the rise of Hindu nationalism in India. His books include The Saffron Wave. Hindu Nationalism and Democracy in Modern India (Princeton University Press 1999) and Wages of Violence, Naming and identity in postcolonial Bombay (Princeton University Press 2001).

 

 

Harish S. Wankhede (Speaker) research interest is to imagine theoretical spaces by interconnecting certain approaches and themes of social science mainly, Justice, politics of recognition and redistribution, secularism, nationalism and the Caste identity. The emphasis of his work is on the marginalized communities in India especially the Muslims, Dalits and the Tribals.

Currently, he is a visiting scholar at the Center for South Asia, Stanford University and working on a research project on the Dalit Panthers’ Movement in Maharashtra. He teaches at the Department of Political Science, University of Delhi.

 

Alexander Lee (Speaker) is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. In the fall of 2014 he will be an assistant professor of political science at the University of Rochester. His research focuses on the historical factors governing the success or failure of political institutions, particularly in South Asia and other areas of the developing world. His work has been published in World Politics and the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. Alex earned his PhD from Stanford in 2013. More information on his work can be found on his website.

 

This event is hosted by the Center for South Asia and the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. 

 

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Thomas Blom Hansen Director Moderator Center for South Asia
Harish S. Wankhede Visiting Scholar Speaker Center for South Asia

Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow, 2013-14
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Alexander Lee's research focuses on the historical factors governing the success or failure of political institutions, particularly in South Asia and other areas of the developing world. His dissertation examined the ways in which colonialism changed the distribution of wealth in Indian society, and the ways in which these changes affected the development of caste identities. Additional research areas include the study of colonialism and European expansion in a cross- national perspective, and the causes of political violence, especially terrorism. His work has been published in World Politics and the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. Alex earned his PhD from Stanford in 2013. More information on his work can be found on his website: https://people.stanford.edu/amlee/

Alexander Lee Postdoctoral Fellow Speaker Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
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Abstract:

The United States spends over 17 percent of GDP on health care; the next six highest countries spend over 11 percent. This six percent differential indicates an excess spending of approximately one trillion dollars per year. Depending on the benefit from the extra spending, this suggests the possibility of a huge misallocation of resources. Also, because the federal government funds almost half of total health care spending, there are significant effects on the deficit and the debt. The main reasons for the excess are (1) the U.S. pays higher prices for drugs, devices, and equipment and higher fees to specialists and sub-specialists; (2) higher administrative costs; and (3) a more expensive mix of medical care. The seminar will focus on institutional and political explanations for the three proximate reasons.

 

Speaker Bio:

Victor R. Fuchs is the Henry J. Kaiser Jr Professor Emeritus at Stanford University, in the Departments of Economics and Health Research and Policy.  He is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Senior Fellow at SIEPR.  He applies economic analysis to social problems of national concern, with special emphasis on health and medical care.  He is author of nine books, the editor of six others, and has published over two hundred papers and shorter pieces.  His current research focuses on male-female differences in mortality, reform of medical education, and the future of U.S. health care.

His best known work, Who Shall Live?  Health, Economics, and Social Choice (1974; expanded edition 1998, 2nd expanded edition 2011), helps health professionals and policy makers to understand the economic and policy problems in health that have emerged in recent decades.  Other books include The Service Economy (1968), How We Live (1983), The Health Economy (1986), Women’s Quest For Economic Equality (1988), and The Future of Health Policy (1993).  He is the editor of Individual and Social Responsibility: Child Care, Education, Medical Care, and Long-term Care in America (1996).

Professor Fuchs was elected president of the American Economic Association in 1995.  He has also been elected to the American Philosophical Society, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences, and is an Honorary Member of Alpha Omega Alpha.  He has received the John R. Commons Award, Emily Mumford Medal for Distinguished Contributions to Social Science in Medicine, Distinguished Investigator Award (Association for Health Services Research), Baxter Foundation Health Services Research Prize, and Madden Distinguished Alumni Award (New York University).  ASHE’s (American Society of Health Economists) Career Award for Lifetime Contributions to the Field of Health Economics and the RAND Corporation prize for the Best Paper published in the Forum for Health Economics and Policy are named and awarded in honor of Professor Fuchs.

This event is sponsored by the Stanford Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and the Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research.

 

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Victor Fuchs the Henry J. Kaiser Jr Professor Emeritus Speaker Stanford University
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Abstract:

Moulay Hicham’s newly published memoir, Journal d’un prince banni, retells his personal life within the context of devastating political critique against the Moroccan political system, its authoritarian monarchy, and the “deep state” within that resists democratic change, the Makhzen.  Written during Moulay Hicham's time as a fellow at the Center for Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law at Stanford University, the volume is neither a settlement of accounts nor a gossipy narrative of frivolous stories.  It instead uniquely ensconces vivid personal recollections within the context of authoritarian politics.  The prince witnessed the rise of the system under King Hassan II, the long-lasting ruler who eliminated all opposition, centralized power, and linked a loyal community of courtiers, elites, and cronies to his will—the Makhzen.  The memoir reveals how Moulay Hicham’s aspirations towards autonomy and independence were constantly blocked by this system, often by either the King himself or his coercive apparatus, comprising the intelligence services and military.  At the same time, the nearly half-century reign of King Hassan exposes critical insight into the development of Moroccan politics and identity, from his acumen regarding the Western Sahara problem to his ability to make the kingdom a focal point of Arab politics after the demise of Nasserism. 

Those personal observations on governance continue with the royal ascent of Hassan’s son, Mohamed VI, who assumed the throne in 1999 and is Moulay Hicham’s cousin.  Replacing Hassan’s powerfully intent personality was this more humane yet political disengaged new king.  His inability to curb the Makhzen and enact meaningful democratic reforms shows the system’s very success.  Whereas the pressures of conforming to the system crushed many of those personalities who grew up in the court, Moulay Hicham managed to elude this destructive side through his self-imposed exile to the United States and his intellectual decision to criticize an authoritarian machine to which he was meant to belong.  As the memoir concludes, such resistance to change implicates the monarchy’s future.  Decades of political exclusion, false promises, and rising inequality have alienated much of the Moroccan public.  As the Arab Spring showed, such discontentment portends to future social and political conflict that could well discredit the monarchy, resulting in its overthrow after 350 years of continuous reign.

Journal d’un prince banni has become a literary and political phenomenon in Morocco and the Moroccan diaspora worldwide.  Its release ignited tumultuous debates within the press, social media, and civil society.  Dubbed an “exceptional document” by Le Nouvel Observateur, the memoir has become one of the best-selling non-fiction works in France.  Though print versions are currently unavailable in Morocco, electronic versions have been downloaded and disseminated on an exponential scale.  Arabic, English, and other language-editions are scheduled for release in the near future.

 

Speaker Bio:

Hicham Ben Abdallah received his B.A. in Politics in 1985 from Princeton University, and his M.A. in Political Science from Stanford in 1997. His interest is in the politics of the transition from authoritarianism to democracy.

He has lectured in numerous universities and think tanks in North America and Europe. His work for the advancement of peace and conflict resolution has brought him to Kosovo as a special Assistant to Bernard Kouchner, and to Nigeria and Palestine as an election observer with the Carter Center. He has published in journals such Le Monde,  Le Monde Diplomatique,Pouvoirs, Le Debat, The Journal of Democracy, The New York Times, El Pais, and El Quds.

In 2010 he has founded the Moulay Hicham Foundation which conducts social science research on the MENA region. He is also an entrepreneur with interests in agriculture, real estate, and renewable energies. His company, Al Tayyar Energy, has a number of clean energy projects in Asia and Europe. 

 

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Stanford University
Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Consulting Professor
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Hicham Ben Abdallah received his B.A. in Politics in 1985 from Princeton University, and his M.A. in Political Science from Stanford in 1997. His interest is in the politics of the transition from authoritarianism to democracy.

He has lectured in numerous universities and think tanks in North America and Europe. His work for the advancement of peace and conflict resolution has brought him to Kosovo as a special Assistant to Bernard Kouchner, and to Nigeria and Palestine as an election observer with the Carter Center. He has published in journals such Le Monde,  Le Monde Diplomatique,Pouvoirs, Le Debat, The Journal of Democracy, The New York Times, El Pais, and El Quds.

In 2010 he has founded the Moulay Hicham Foundation which conducts social science research on the MENA region. He is also an entrepreneur with interests in agriculture, real estate, and renewable energies. His company, Al Tayyar Energy, has a number of clean energy projects in Asia and Europe. 

Hicham Ben Abdallah Consulting Professor Speaker Stanford University
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