THE QUESTION

On 22 February 2026, Mexican security forces neutralized and killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (El Mencho), founder and leader of the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). Within hours, more than 370 violent incidents erupted in 25 states: narco-blockades, arson attacks on OXXO stores and Bancos del Bienestar, and direct ambushes of Guardia Nacional units that killed at least 25 officers. Some observers compared the violence to a nationwide civil war insurgency. The data and its analysis tell a more qualified story.

WHAT THE DATA SHOWS

Using two independent georeferenced incident datasets — DataInt (251 records) and Aliado/Alephri (138 records), merged and deduplicated to 370 events — we mapped the timing, geography, and severity of every reported incident and asked whether the pattern looks like a coordinated national campaign or something else entirely.