On May 21, 2026, the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program (JKISP) at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law hosted Ambassador Daniel Shapiro for the latest installment of its Israel Insights webinar series. Ambassador Shapiro, a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, joined Amichai Magen, Director of JKISP, and Or Rabinowitz, Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies. Ambassador Shapiro described the Trump administration as caught between three unappealing options on Iran's nuclear program: an ongoing stalemate over the closed Strait of Hormuz, military escalation that risks a global economic crisis, or a far weaker nuclear deal than Trump has demanded. He discussed similar issues of refusal to disarm obstructing negotiations in Lebanon, where Hezbollah's refusal to disarm blocks normalization despite new talks among ambassadors in Washington, and Gaza, where Hamas's refusal to disarm has stalled the transition to non-Hamas governance.

On U.S.-Israel relations, Ambassador Shapiro said Israel's standing in American public opinion is the lowest he recalls, primarily due to the toll of the Gaza war, but also due to the rightward drift of Netanyahu's coalition and Netanyahu's history of partisan relationships within U.S. politics. He outlined the difference between legitimate debate over the terms of U.S.-Israel security assistance and arguments that question Israel's existence as a state. Looking ahead to Israel's elections, expected between September and October, Ambassador Shapiro argued that rather than a pro- versus anti-Netanyahu split affecting the outcome, votes will be affected by public opinion on whether the government succeeded against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran; Israel's eroded international standing; and the ultra-Orthodox exemption from military service. Asked to close with his thoughts on Israeli-Saudi normalization, Ambassador Shapiro, drawing on his direct involvement in pre-October 7th talks and a return trip to Saudi Arabia in December, explained how the widening Saudi-UAE regional rift and the unresolved Iran war further complicate Riyadh's existing conditions for a deal.