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It took just 29 days for President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to flee Tunisia after mass protests erupted in the country.  Twenty-three years of authoritarian rule crumbling in less than a month is rather remarkable, especially considering the relative “calm” that had prevailed in Tunisia during those two decades.

Tunisia rarely hit the headlines then. No Islamists threatening to overtake the government (the Islamist al-Nahda party was outlawed in 1991). No terrorist networks causing security concerns (the exception being the sole attack on a synagogue in 2002 which catalyzed stepped up security measures). No strategic interests for the USA to speak of. And Ben Ali’s regime succeeded in marketing Tunisia as a safe tourist haven. Cities like Hammamet allowed tourists to be parachuted into newly built all-inclusive resorts that could have been anywhere in the world. There was even a custom-built, sanitized version of a traditional medinah in Yasmine Hammamet, which reminded one more of the artificiality of the world landmarks in Las Vegas than of real North African souks.

Tunisia’s sanitized image was also due to a severe crackdown on freedom of expression, as the country had one of the highest levels of media control—especially of the internet—in the world.

But what Ben Ali’s flight showed is how fragile the foundations of his rule were. So vulnerable that, in contrast to Iran and Egypt’s leaders’ resilience in the face of mass protests, he quickly offered one concession after another before completely giving up, making it clear that he was in fear for his life.

What will happen next in Tunisia is uncertain. The Tunisian opposition is divided into groups with wildly different agendas, from the Islamists of al-Nahda to the secular reformists of the Congress for the Republic headed by Moncef Marzouki. There is no political figure who can be clearly envisaged to become the next Tunisian president, and the way the balance will tip—will there be democracy, or another authoritarian regime of a merely different kind?—is unpredictable. But the clearest lessons that have emerged from Tunisia so far are that there is a real democratic potential in the Arab world and that authoritarian regimes in the region are not always what they appear to be. Those lessons are important on two fronts:

On the foreign policy front, the Tunisian uprising seems to have catalyzed US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to make the US administration’s boldest verbal statement thus far on the need for reform in the Arab world. Describing the political order of some Arab countries as “stagnant”, Clinton, on a visit to Bahrain on January 13, said that “This is a critical moment and this is a test of leadership for all of us”.

The United States is continuously criticized by democracy experts for favoring stability over the risks of democracy in the Arab world, and for backing up authoritarian leaders—whether directly or indirectly—for fear of having to deal with an unfavorable alternative (namely, an Islamist government, as in Egypt or Syria). Tunisia should be a relatively easy case for the United States in this context, a litmus test of putting one’s money where one’s mouth is. But it also shows how applauding stability can make countries like the United States blind to the democratic potential lurking beneath the façade of seemingly impenetrable regimes.

Western governments—including that of the United States—have mostly publicly congratulated the Tunisian people on their uprising, and France and other European countries refused Ben Ali entry on Friday when his plane was looking for a place to land. This reaction has been met with cynicism by Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, a man who, since 2006, has been working to build up his credentials as the only credible Arab leader in the present time.  In a speech on Sunday, Nasrallah was quick to point out the irony of Ben Ali’s lack of welcome in the very countries which he had “served” throughout the duration of his rule.  So, on the regional front, the case of Tunisia unveils how quickly US opponents like Nasrallah can capitalize on short-sighted foreign policy. Nasrallah’s statement paints Western support for authoritarian Arab leaders as a house of cards that can crumble with the slightest shake—a warning to the West and Arab leaders reliant on Western support alike.

It is no coincidence that the reaction to the developments in Tunisia by other Arab regimes has mostly been to lay low. And here we can find another, more important, house of cards. Ben Ali’s regime has been exposed for the decaying entity that it is, and already copycat protests in other Arab countries—Jordan, Algeria, Egypt, and even Mauritania—have started. While a blanket domino effect across the region is not likely, reformists can take heart from Tunisia’s experience: while an authoritarian regime may appear to be indestructible, it may well be a mere house of cards.    

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The Program on Arab Reform and Democracy is pleased to announce its second annual conference on May 12-13, 2011.

This conference focuses on empowering political activism in the Arab world, and features scholars and activists discussing the achievements of and challenges facing political activists in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia.

 


From Political Activism to Democratic Change in the Arab World

Second Annual Conference of the

Program on Arab Reform and Democracy

Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) atStanfordUniversity

May 12-13, 2011

BechtelConferenceCenter,StanfordUniversity

 

 

Thursday May 12, 2011

 

8:30-9:00 Welcome

 

9:00-9:45 Opening Speech

Activism in the Middle East: A Framework

Ellen Lust,YaleUniversity

 

9:45-10:15 Break

 

10:15-12:15 Tunisia and Egypt

Chair: Ellen Lust,YaleUniversity

 

Toward a Second Republic in Tunisia

Christopher Alexander,DavidsonCollege

 

Political Activism of Everyday Life: Lessons from the Tunisian Revolution

Nabiha Jerad,Tunisia

 

Factors Leading to the Egyptian Revolution; Where are We Now?

Ahmed Salah,Egypt

 

Discussant: Michele Dunne, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

 

12:15-1:15 Lunch

 

1:15-3:15 The Gulf

Chair: Larry Diamond,StanfordUniversity

 

The 2011 Uprising in Bahrain and its Consequences on the Participative Institutions

Laurence Louër, SciencesPo

 

Activism in Bahrain and the Struggle for Reform

Maryam Al Khawaja,Bahrain Centre for Human Rights

 

Saudi Arabia: The Impossible Revolution?

Stéphane Lacroix, SciencesPo

 

Challenges to Realistic Political Reforms in Yemen

Munir Mawari,Yemen

 

3:15-3:45 Break

 

3:45-5:15 Syria and Lebanon

Chair: Lina Khatib,StanfordUniversity

 

Activism and the Orphan Reform in Lebanon.

Ziad Majed,AmericanUniversity ofParis

 

Syria from Political Activism to Popular Uprising: A Roadmap to Democracy

Radwan Ziadeh,GeorgeWashingtonUniversity

 

Discussant: Daniel Brumberg,GeorgetownUniversity

 

 

 

Friday May 13, 2011

 

9:00-10:30 Palestine

Chair: Khalil Barhoum,StanfordUniversity

 

Pretending Palestine is Normal

Nathan Brown,GeorgeWashingtonUniversity

 

Palestine: The Non-violent Popular Struggle for Freedom and the Future of Democracy

Mustafa Barghouti, MP,Palestine

 

10:30-11:00 Break

 

11:00-1:00 Jordan and Morocco

Chair: Hicham Ben Abdallah,StanfordUniversity

 

A Decade of Struggling Reform Efforts in Jordan: The Resilience of the Rentier System

Marwan Muasher, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

 

Assessing Current Public Perceptions of Political Activism Development in Jordan

Amer Bani Amer,Al-HayatCenter for Civil Society Development

 

Morocco: Activist Revival vs. Autocratic Resilience

Ahmed Benchemsi,StanfordUniversity

 

 Discussant: Sean Yom,TempleUniversity

 

1:00-2:00 Lunch

 

2:00-4:00 Concluding Roundtable Discussion and Reflections

Chair: Larry Diamond,StanfordUniversity


 

Bechtel Conference Center

Lina Khatib Moderator

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-6448 (650) 723-1928
0
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and Sociology
diamond_encina_hall.png MA, PhD

Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab WorldWill China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Former Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Faculty Chair, Jan Koum Israel Studies Program
Date Label
Larry Diamond Moderator

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

0
Consulting Professor
Ben_Abdallah.jpg MA

Hicham Ben Abdallah received his B.A. in Politics in 1985 from Princeton University, and his M.A. in Political Science from Stanford in 1997. His interest is in the politics of the transition from authoritarianism to democracy.

He has lectured in numerous universities and think tanks in North America and Europe. His work for the advancement of peace and conflict resolution has brought him to Kosovo as a special Assistant to Bernard Kouchner, and to Nigeria and Palestine as an election observer with the Carter Center. He has published in journals such Le Monde,  Le Monde Diplomatique,Pouvoirs, Le Debat, The Journal of Democracy, The New York Times, El Pais, and El Quds.

In 2010 he has founded the Moulay Hicham Foundation which conducts social science research on the MENA region. He is also an entrepreneur with interests in agriculture, real estate, and renewable energies. His company, Al Tayyar Energy, has a number of clean energy projects in Asia and Europe. 

Hicham Ben Abdallah Moderator
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Elias Muhanna is a PhD candidate in Near Eastern Languages & Civilizations at Harvard University and the author of QifaNabki.com, a blog devoted to Lebanese political affairs. He has written extensively on contemporary cultural and political affairs in the Middle East for several general-interest publications, including The Nation, Foreign Policy, The Guardian, The National, Mideast Monitor, World Politics Review, Bidoun, and Transition, and is regularly quoted in media outlets such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Financial Times, The Los Angeles Times, National Public Radio, The Christian Science Monitor, Slate, and Al-Jazeera International.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Elias Muhanna Author of Lebanese political blog qifanabki.com Speaker
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The Program on Arab Reform and Democracy at CDDRL is pleased to announce a one-day conference to be held on Friday April 29, 2011, entitled, "Democratic Transition in Egypt." This event, co-sponsored by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies at Stanford University, will focus on Egypt's current revolutionary period, to examine this pivotal moment in Egypt's political history and prospects for future reform. The conference brings to Stanford leading Egypt academics from American, European, and Egyptian universities and think tanks.  Panels will examine the background to the revolution, discuss the role of oppositions parties and civil society, and forecast Egypt's political future.

For those who can't make it in person, the conference will be tweeted live from 9:00-5:30 PST on Twitter @StanfordCDDRL, #ARDEG for those interested in following virtually.

Co-sponsored by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies at Stanford University. 

8:30 Welcome

9:00-10:30 Panel 1: The Popular Revolt against the Mubarak Regime

Chair: Joel Beinin, Stanford University

- The popular movement - Emad Shahin, Notre Dame University

- The response of the regime: the effort of the old order to re-establish itself - Samer Shehata , Georgetown University

10:30-10:45 Break

10:45-12:45 Panel 2: The Process of Regime Transition - Till the Presidential Election and Beyond

Chair: Lina Khatib, Stanford University

- The process of negotiations between the regime and opposition groups; how will things look like till the presidential election? - Joshua Stacher, Kent State University

- Crafting Egyptian democracy: the agenda for constitutional and institutional reform - Tarek Masoud, Harvard University

- Internal security and external pressure: is Egypt becoming less repressive? - Jason Brownlee, University of Texas at Austin

12:45-1:45 Lunch

1:45-3:45 Panel 3: Egypt's Changing Political Party Landscape

Chair: Lisa Blaydes, Stanford University

- Secular opposition paries - Samer Soliman, American University in Cairo

- The Muslim Brotherhood: what next? - Omar Ashour, University of Exeter

- Newcomers and veterans in a changing political arena- Hesham Sallam, Georgetown University

3:45-4:00 Break

4:00-5:30 Panel 4: Looking Forwards

Chair: Larry Diamond, Stanford University

- Connecting digital activists to power:  new approaches to democracy promotion - Ben Rowswell, Stanford University

- The presidential and parliamentary elections - Shadi Hamid, Brookings Doha Center

 

Bechtel Conference Center

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-6448 (650) 723-1928
0
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and Sociology
diamond_encina_hall.png MA, PhD

Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab WorldWill China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Former Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Faculty Chair, Jan Koum Israel Studies Program
Date Label
Larry Diamond Moderator Stanford University

Encina Hall West, Room 408
Stanford, CA 94305-6044

(650) 723-0649
0
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Political Science
lisa_blaydes_108_vert_final.jpg

Lisa Blaydes is a Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. She is the author of State of Repression: Iraq under Saddam Hussein (Princeton University Press, 2018) and Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak’s Egypt (Cambridge University Press, 2011). Professor Blaydes received the 2009 Gabriel Almond Award for best dissertation in the field of comparative politics from the American Political Science Association for this project.  Her articles have appeared in the American Political Science Review, International Studies Quarterly, International Organization, Journal of Theoretical Politics, Middle East Journal, and World Politics. During the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 academic years, Professor Blaydes was an Academy Scholar at the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies. She holds degrees in Political Science (PhD) from the University of California, Los Angeles, and International Relations (BA, MA) from Johns Hopkins University.

 

Affiliated faculty at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Affiliated faculty at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
Date Label
Lisa Blaydes Moderator Stanford University
Lina Khatib Moderator Stanford University
Joel Beinin Moderator Stanford University
Hesham Sallam Speaker Georgetown University
Joshua Stacher Speaker Kent State University
Tarek Masoud Speaker Harvard University
Emad Shahin Speaker Notre Dame University
Samer Shehata Speaker Geoergetown University
Jason Brownlee Speaker University of Texas at Austin
Shadi Hamid Speaker Brookings Doha Center
Omar Ashour Speaker University of Exeter
Ben Rowswell Speaker Stanford University
Samer Soliman Speaker American University in Cairo
Conferences

As in much of the Arab world, 2011 was a year of social upheaval and momentous change for Yemen. Following eleven months of popular protest, and under significant international pressure, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh agreed to a UN-backed transition initiative in November 2011. The initiative ensured a transfer of power from Saleh to his deputy, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, and mandated a two-year period of national dialogue to resolve long-standing political issues and produce a new constitution before elections are held in 2014.

The Program on Arab Reform and Democracy at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) is pleased to present the report of this project, which examines the link between economic and political reform in the Arab world. While there is a large number of international organizations implementing reform programs in the region, the way those organizations operate on the ground, how they make their decisions, and deal with local political, economic, and social challenges is generally understudied.

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Fred H. Lawson is Professor of Government at Mills College.  In 2009-10 he was Senior Visiting Fellow at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar.  His publications include Constructing International Relations in the Arab World (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2006),  Why Syria Goes to War (Ithaca, NY:  Cornell University Press, 1996) and The Social Origins of Egyptian Expansionism during the Muhammad 'Ali Period (New York: Columbia University Press, 1992).

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Fred Lawson Professor, Government, Department Head Speaker Mills College
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The Program on Arab Reform and Democracy is pleased to announce its seminar series for 2010-11, titled “Elections and Changing Political Dynamics in the Arab World”. The series kicks off with two seminars on October 7 and November 18, examining elections in Iraq and Jordan, respectivel.

Two more seminars will take place on January 13, 2011 (with Fred Lawson on the Bahraini elections) and March 10, 2011 (with Elias Muhanna on the Lebanese elections). This will be followed by a one-day conference on Friday April 29, 2011 titled “EDemocratic Transition in Egypt”.

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Abbas Kadhim is an Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California.  He also holds a Visiting Scholar status at Stanford University since 2005.  Between 2003 and 2005, he taught courses on Islamic theology and ethics at the Graduate Theological Union in Berkeley, California.

His recent publications include: "a Case of Partial Cooperation: the 1920 Revolution and Iraqi Sectarian Identities" (forthcoming); "Forging a Third Way: Sistani's Marja‘iyya between Quietism and Wilāyat al-Faqīh, in Iraq, Democracy and the Future of the Muslim World, edited by Ali Paya and John Esposito, Routledge,  July  2010;  "Widows' Doomsday: Women and War in the Poetry of Hassan al-Nassar," in Women and War in Muslim Countries, ed. Faegheh Shirazi, Austin: The University of Texas Press, June 2010; "Opting for the Lesser Evil: US Foreign Policy Toward Iraq, 1958-2008," in Bob Looney (ed.) Handbook of US Middle East Relations, London: Routledge, 2009; and Shi`i Perceptions of the Iraq Study Group, Strategic Insights, vol. VI, issue 2 (March 2007).

His book translations include Shi‘a Sects: A Translation with an Introduction and Notes, London: Islamic College for Advanced Studies Press (2007); Wahhabism: A Critical Essay, by Hamid Algar (Arabic Translation), Köln, Germany: Dar al-Jamal (2006); and Runaway World: How Globalization is Reshaping our Lives, by Anthony Giddens (Arabic Translation), with Dr. Hassan Nadhem, Beirut: (2003).

His current projects include editing the Routledge Handbook of Governance in the Middle East and North Africa, London: Routledge (forthcoming 2011) and finishing a manuscript on The 1920 Revolution and the Making of the Modern Iraqi State (under review).

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Abbas Kadhim Assistant Professor Speaker Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
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